/tag/ - Technical Analysis General

[Anonymous No.24627255]

Welcome to TA general, a containment for the inevitable wave of hundreds of new TAfags and degenerate gamblers that the bull market will bring.

In all seriousness, I think it will do /biz/ good to have a centralized place for those here that do trade, including me, to have an outlet to post analysis and memelines instead of making dozens of threads that 404 after 5 replies. All markets are welcome, but crypto will be what most people are interested in.

Resources:
>Crypto Cred's beginner TA lessons
https://docs.google.com/document/d/15c3rN15rkXldY8Te3GDG4NG7noaaoikydOoZQlElwXw/edit
>Advanced crypto market data & alerts
https://coinalyze.net/
>Where to draw your memelines
https://www.tradingview.com/
>Volume analysis and orderbook heatmaps
https://tradinglite.com/
>Quality weekly TA streams
https://www.youtube.com/c/TechnicalRoundup/videos
https://www.youtube.com/c/TraderMayne/videos

FAQ:
>Isn't trading just gambling?
Short term trading is subject to more statistical noise and is more difficult than investing. 95%+ of traders lose money. Trading is similar to things like poker and sports betting in that there are ways to generate positive expectancy over large samples, even if each individual gamble is not guaranteed to win.

>You know that TA is a meme right faggot?
Yes and no. Much of it is self fulfilling prophecy, but concepts such as support and resistance, consolidation and expansion cycles, and other candle patterns all have proven utility and can help predict future moves more often than a coin flip. There are more meme indicators and esoteric strategies that I won't vouch for using, but feel free to explore using whatever can make you profitable. All that matters is it works.

>How do I become a profitable trader?
Risk management is your highest priority. Beyond that, just find a pattern that works and trade it. Define where your idea is invalidated and watch how price reacts to areas you mark as important. Backtest new ideas and journal your trades.

[Anonymous No.24627312]

Since we are so close to ATH, there aren't many relevant resistance levels left to draw. Working from a high time frame perspective first, I will draw a line on the last few remaining weekly levels that other traders are surely drawing too.

My next post will be showing how the current chart is reacting to these weekly levels.

[Anonymous No.24627375]

>>24627312
Zooming into the 4h chart, you can see how these levels have been respected quite well by price. We are currently consolidating underneath the last real resistance before ATH.

You can see how we have rejected 3, arguably 4 times from this 19300 area resistance. If we can break above this and hold/retest it, I expect a run to ATH and probably beyond.

[Anonymous No.24627415]

>>24627255
Bump. Please open this everyday. I trade stocks and will be posting my setups tomorrow

[Anonymous No.24627423]

>>24627375
This is the bears last stand, and if there are enough of them to defend here, this would make for a fantastic high reward/risk short opportunity and the resulting price action would look similar to pic related probably.

Failure to claim this 19.3k level for yet another attempt will likely cause this consolidation range to fail to the downside. Those weekly levels in the 17k area would probably be tagged (and I would expect a bounce there, if not THE bounce)

[Anonymous No.24627461]

>>24627415
will do, I hope more people are encouraged to post their ideas with a dedicated thread like this around

[Anonymous No.24627501]

>>24627423
"so if it doesn't go up it will go down, very insightful analysis bro"

A useful disclaimer to some people who probably think this a lot, most of trading isn't actually predicting where price will necessarily go. You just make a plan for the most likely outcomes you think will happen and HOW you expect them to happen. Once one of those ideas starts to develop, you can look for an entry trigger to catch most of that move.

Personally, I'm not taking any long term short positions until these dips stop getting instantly bought up. I want to see some weakness first basically. It makes a lot of sense to me that the ATH will get ran and all the bears get one final BTFO before a chokeslam back down to nuke all the breakout bulls.

The golden trade opportunity to me is to buy the next major HTF correction on low leverage and to slowly add more to the position on subsequent low timeframe dips.

[Anonymous No.24627532]

>>24627375
make that 4, arguably 5 times now*

[Anonymous No.24627857]

If you are an aggressive bear and think we are for sure going to dump from here, I think this is a reasonable short setup you can take. Your trade thesis would be defined by the trend continuing to make lower highs into weekly resistance.

This idea would be likely invalidated if we either start trading back above 19300 and holding on a closing basis, and/or if price does not dump sharply immediately after you get filled. Most times, when bitcoin is ready to dump out of a range, it rejects pretty violently. I would not want to hang around in the short for more than a few hours if it does not immediately break in your favor.

[Anonymous No.24627860]

Hey guys I'm a poor neet, can I realistically support myself day trading? What resources are there to learn more about trading crypto?

I tried to trade years ago but I was too immature, I've only ever been a holder.

Can people rreally turn a few hundred $ into thousands +?
Any successful consistent traders in here?

[Anonymous No.24628163]

>>24627860
It's completely possible, but extremely difficult. Those that succeed trading often need multiple years of experience before they learn all the different ways in which their own flaws and psychology can sabotage them. Just going off the odds, you probably wouldn't make it trading. But if you really believe in yourself and treat it as seriously as you would treat a serious career, it is very doable.

There are hundreds of cases of people running up small amounts into huge amounts with trading, but when this happens, it's either a noob getting extremely lucky, or a veteran trader just fucking around with 100x'ing a small stack for fun. The noob who gets lucky will almost always give their winnings back to the market (I blew out multiple accounts before learning how to properly manage risk).

I would recommend that you check out this resource for the basics of TA:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/15c3rN15rkXldY8Te3GDG4NG7noaaoikydOoZQlElwXw/edit

That said, you can read 1000 books and study tons of resources, but nothing beats hands on experience in the market. I would recommend you learn the basics from this link and from whatever else you can find, then deposit like 100 bucks and just fuck around with full expectation of losing that money. If you honestly want to make it trading, you have to be extremely self critical and also willing to fail multiple times.

[Anonymous No.24628288]

>>24628163
>There are hundreds of cases of people running up small amounts into huge amounts with trading, but when this happens, it's either a noob getting extremely lucky, or a veteran trader just fucking around with 100x'ing a small stack for fun

I should say, when they do this very QUICKLY, it's almost always unsustainable and luck based. It is possible to 100x an account over a period of years if you are doing everything properly. The hardest part is not letting your own personal demons getting in the way at any point in that journey, because you WILL have losing streaks and times when market conditions shift and your strategies stop working. If you are able to weather those storms though, all you have to do is keep executing your trading plan and your account will keep compounding.

[Anonymous No.24628692]

For the LINKies in the crowd, I don't think it looks very good for the bitcoin pair (or ETH pair either). pic related is the weekly chart

The weekly consolidation that generated the all time high should have acted as support for a new uptrend if we were bullish still. Any time we have bounced off it, it has been short lived and extremely small. Usually when altcoins make this kind of "slide of death" pattern, they finish off with a massive spike down and then it bounces immediately back up.

I would look for this capitulation first and look to buy up all those bags people dump when that giga trendline breaks. You have a nice base of support around 45-50k sats that should hold on the first touch.

[Anonymous No.24628824]

>>24628692
zooming into the daily chart, you can see exactly when that major support level turned from support into resistance. never a good thing to see if you are bullish. we are resting right on that macro trendline now. I wouldn't rule it out completely for buyers to step in here and save this terrible looking chart, but I would definitely not bet on that happening given the state of bitcoin right now.

It just seems like one of those situations where no matter what bitcoin does, LINKBTC is going to dump.

[Anonymous No.24629021]

>>24627255
What's the likelihood of this occurring?

[Anonymous No.24629081]

>>24627255
OMG looking promising. Hopefully the new management in HK can pump it to the moon.

[Anonymous No.24629204]

>>24629021
Probably 60%+ desu. Macro trend has given no reason believe that every consolidation range wont continue to break up from here. Bitcoin has been chilling up here for too long for me to think this is a top. Even if you think a huge 30%+ correction is still in the cards eventually, I think going up first sets that up better than going down would. You would trap all the degenerates who breakout long 20k.

It's worth looking back to what happened when we last broke an ATH. You can see the carnage that happened and a ton of people got shaken out.

[Anonymous No.24629345]

>>24627255
Bump. Good stuff.

[Anonymous No.24629398]

>>24629081
the USDT charts on altcoins can be deceiving sometimes. bitcoin ripping to 20k again has dragged up most alt USD pairs such as OMG.

look at the omg/bitcoin chart... would you want to buy this yet if you weren't already a coping bagholder? when altcoins already have a drastically higher risk profile than bitcoin, why would you expose yourself to something that is almost certainly going to underperform bitcoin gains too?

[Anonymous No.24629462]

>>24629398
What are the variables you are using to quantify a risk profile?

[Anonymous No.24629620]

>>24629462
It's not discretely quantifiable in my opinion. I don't think you need to precisely measure anything to use this concept as part of your allocation strategy though. Altcoins, and especially shitcoins, are inherently riskier. Are they twice as risky? Three times? It varies wildly probably depending on the coin and what you measure by.

Unless you are some crazy maximalist that unironically believes your favorite alt is going to flip BTC one day, you should agree that it is a riskier thing to hold for long periods of time. Bitcoin has no dev team that can exit scam anyone or anything, unless you think satoshi will come back and dump his bags (but in that case the whole crypto market would get BTFO anyway).

The lesson should just be that the altcoin needs to look really fucking bullish to want to gamble with it with money you could otherwise just have in bitcoin. LINK marines may have been degenerate with how exposed they were to LINK, but at least they chose a coin that was basically in an eternal uptrend during the crypto bear market. If that isn't strength, I don't know what is. So it wasn't suprising at all to see LINK hit $20.

Alts now almost across the board look weak compared to BTC and even ETH. The next alt season will come, but unless you have a super long term DCA strategy, I don't see why you should FOMO into them now rather than waiting for them to actually look strong first.

[Anonymous No.24629751]

>>24627255
Very nice thread OP

[Anonymous No.24629773]

>>24629620
Good info. Thanks.

[Anonymous No.24630211]

Thank you anon I appreciate it.

I tried to trade ETH and monero back when they were 14 and 6$, I completely fucked up and kept hopping from coins to coins and eventually dwindling my stack from making emotional based trades.

My problem was never selling for profit and holding into the floor then giving up and buying the next shitcoin while the old one mooned.

I know you havr to be very disciplined about entry and exit and don't get married to a shitcoin.
At first I thought I was doing good from the usd value going up but it would of been way more profitable to just hold those coins.
I blew a pretty big opportunity because I was just an immature kid when I first got into crypto..
Now I don't even have 1 btc or 5 eth, my only saving coin was link and even that I sold half of it early.. So really I'm just trying to fuck around with 1000$ trying to make 50$ at a time.

I have never tried leverage it seems too risky to lose everything, but I can see you can get stupid lucky with it longing or shorting 100x at the right moment.

Everyone always said TA was a meme and didn't apply to crypto, has that changed now that its matured?

I think the candles are a good indicator along with RSI

[Anonymous No.24630784]

>>24630211
TA has always applied. Price is a reflection of buyers and sellers, and the people behind that buying and selling have moments of predictable psychology that manifests itself in chart patterns. It's why bubbles of any market all look very similar in how they moon and subsequently crash. That's just one example, there are many more.

Any specific trading strategy always has ebbs and flows of how good it is at any given time though. Shifts in market conditions (such as going from a bear market to bull market) can change how often some indicator or pattern works. For example, you mentioned RSI being good, but the way you are traditionally supposed to use RSI like selling when its overbought doesn't work well when shit is going parabolic up. It's a much better mean reversion indicator. Divergences are a bit better, but even super bearish looking divs can get eaten up by bitcoin chadding up like it has recently. You just have to shift the way you use these tools to adjust to the climate of the market.

If you wanted to use RSI now, I'd look to use it for trend continuation plays rather than just trend reversal plays. Hidden bullish divergences are really useful in bull markets.

[Anonymous No.24631080]

>>24630784
To add, I'd argue that TA applies even more often in crypto than it does in many boomer markets. The more speculative the asset, the more the underlying psychology of the people is the reason for price moving in any specific direction. There are no earnings reports for bitcoin. What news there is often known years in advance and can be priced in as such.

[Anonymous No.24631304]

>>24629751
cheers bro

[Anonymous No.24631371]

>>24631304
I like your threads OP. Keep em coming.

[Anonymous No.24631514]

btc wont pump or dump until dollar makes its move
bulls arent going to go hard buying when there is risk of dollar bouncing up hard

[Anonymous No.24631854]

>>24631514
yeah that is definitely one of the main reasons why we are in a stalemate right now. DXY is at a technical support area and "should" bounce, but there is always the possibility we print a gorillion more dollars and nuke the dollar more too

[Anonymous No.24632058]

>>24631854
yes i think that is whats making the crab market crypto whales cant manipulate a dollar pump

[Anonymous No.24632152]

Anyones thoughts on RXT - rackspace?

[Anonymous No.24632489]

>>24632152
hmm, on a purely technical level, it's right at resistance. the area that generated that huge down move before the double bottom is where we are now again. so basically, its a good place to take profits right where it is now. the chart looks pretty good though, I would look for it to turn that green line back into support again. if it turns the green back into resistance, thats when I would get the fuck out

[Anonymous No.24632523]

>>24628824
Are you bullish on LINK/BTC on the macro scale? Longer time horizons of maybe 1-2 years?

[Anonymous No.24632555]

>>24632523
oh yeah, definitely. its just the short/mid term that looks dicey. any LINK holder who doesn't trust himself to swing (which should be most people) should just keep holding imo. the utility of TA as an investor is knowing when to buy more, not necessarily when to sell. everyone is in link because they know it can go way higher than it is now, so it doesn't make much sense to jeopardize that plan unless you are an experienced trader

[Anonymous No.24632743]

>>24632555
that said, even as an investor, you should explicitly define the conditions by which your idea is invalidated. there is never any guarantees for anything to go where you think it will. if the link chart starts to look anything like those 2017 cycle alt charts started to look once bitcoin hits its new ATH, I would look to move into something more promising

if history has proven anything about crypto, it's that the next big thing is often the only thing new investors give a shit about speculating on. nobody wants to touch boomer coins now that DeFi is the new hotness. once LINK becomes a boomer coin, that is when you should really be careful about how the chart is developing long term. you wont be able to rely on the new blood in crypto later this decade to be as enthusiastic about some coin that already had its "run up" when there are new projects with unknown ceilings available to buy

[Anonymous No.24633312]

Cheers, great thread, very insightful OP. Can't wait to see more threads on this board rather than bots posting busty women with irrelevant questions (yes I know the meme I just don't have it saved)

[Anonymous No.24633435]

>>24627860
Start out with the oldest most battle proven strategy out there. MACD+200 EMA.
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmffSjdZbWQ
Then you can learn more about TA like studying divergences on longer time frames. Day trading is hard and requires allot of patience and discipline. Risk management is also very important.

[Anonymous No.24633507]

>>24629021
Doesn't look like trading view to me what is that?

[Anonymous No.24633539]

>>24633507
pretty sure it's tradingview, they let you do gradient backgrounds now

[Anonymous No.24633989]

>>24633539
>>24633507
yeah that is still tradingview

[Anonymous No.24633990]

>>24633507
>>24633539
yeah it is.

[Anonymous No.24634059]

>>24633990
>>24633989
dat hivemind

[Anonymous No.24634455]

>>24634059
*click click*

[Anonymous No.24634463]

I've made pretty much this exact same post in several TA/trading threads but ill do it again because I feel like its some well needed hopium for people who want to get into trading

I work at a cfd broker and I can tell you that while the "95% of traders lose money" saying is 100% true, its misleading. The vast majority of retail traders are uninformed gamblers. They make no attempt to manage their risk, even seeing things like stop losses is rare. If you manage your risk properly, and actually make an effort to learn and improve, you are already far ahead of the curve.

Don't let the fud get to you, but you need to have the right mindset. You aren't going to make money straight away, and even when you become consistently profitable its not a get rich quick scheme. Manage your risk, never fomo, and try stick to a set R/R if your strategy permits. It's a grind, but compounding is a hell of a thing, and making a living off trading is certainly possible for most people, and if you're in deep enough that you browse threads like this, you likely possess the necessary motivation to put in the time and money to learn

[Anonymous No.24634533]

>>24634463
Good post. Yeah, 95% of people lose money, but almost all of those that lose do so because of their emotions for sure, not their inability to identify actionable trading patterns that they can make money with. Honestly, don't believe any gatekeeping FUD from anyone about any market. Boomer faggots will tell you that you cant trade this or that and they are full of shit too.

[Anonymous No.24634804]

Whales dont need ta ;)

[Anonymous No.24635286]

>>24634804
never hurts to see exactly where all the retards are pooling their liquidity at

[Anonymous No.24636265]

btw if anyone has any suggestions for edits and additions to future OP's, let me know and I will be sure to add it

[Anonymous No.24637515]

bumping a couple more times

[Anonymous No.24638433]

>>24637515
I'm interested. Bumping to keep it alive

[Anonymous No.24638541]

>>24627255
Would you please recommend any books? I'm young and would like to make a living out of trading.

[Anonymous No.24638672]

>>24638541
I've never been a big bookfag, but I've heard good things about Trading for a Living

I found this google drive with tons of trading books though if you want to check out some shit. Be sure to scroll down too, theres like over a hundred of them here.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B1s-Y597iYjabW5rZklPTzlpcmc

[Anonymous No.24638721]

>>24638672
Thank you

[Anonymous No.24638727]

Good thread. Been looking to get into charts instead of just gambling since my luck will probably run out.

[Anonymous No.24638734]

filthy beginners with filthy beginner mistakes. i dont wanna see this on /biz,
>>24629021
dear boy, it doesnt matter how mych oscillators you will draw on cahrt, they indicate SAME. FUCKING. THING. with the same signals,, just different math being used. OP talks about patterns yet i cant see him drawing any. may i just see your tradingview ideas, OP, and then I will kindly fuck off?
btw TA doesnt work with crypto, the market has 0 volatility itself so every trade in particular has value unlike FX. you faggots should use volume cluster analysis if u`ll ever grow a brain for that

[Anonymous No.24638810]

>>24638734
>btw TA doesnt work with crypto, the market has 0 volatility itself

based retard

[Anonymous No.24638836]

literally all the resources you need to make it are available online

[Anonymous No.24638842]

>>24638810
ofc i am. how do you think coin prices change?

[Anonymous No.24638934]

>>24638734
you very clearly don't know anything

[Anonymous No.24638983]

>>24638934
i know enough to judge. if not me, market will tell you ur wrong. better it be me as I used to be just like you, spreading word about meme lines and books. And i want others to do better and pass through this stage faster.

[Anonymous No.24639303]

>>24638983
then you could just post resources instead of starting a sentence with an 'and'

[Anonymous No.24639427]

Cool thread. Can you chart ZEC?

[Anonymous No.24639429]

>>24639303
its not a first thread like this, OP already collected shitton of material. But its a dry read, when ur starting its best to read simple things like investopedia and watch YT videos about indicators and tools like fib retracement, arcs, gann fans, boxes, eliott wave etc. Candlestick and chart patterns are like guitar chords, can be learn in a day. Dont overestimate yourself, you wont be able to read dozens of books. Doesnt matter if yall hate on me or not,

investopedia
Ryner Teo on youtube
investing.com - search for "analysis & opinion" on securities, research the tools they use.
And most importantly - practice for fuck`s sake. Download metatrader on ur phone, get a demo account at IC markets as they dont expire and have lots of cfds, and try to scalp/ intraday trade. Alternatively, get yourself an upgraded plan on tradingview and use replay function. practice, practice, practice, its just like any other skill, dont focus on theory

[Anonymous No.24639446]

>>24639427
draw a couple of memelines from monthly or weekly HL, there you have OP`s chart its no rocket science

[Anonymous No.24639866]

>>24639427
Looks better than a lot of other old alts, but I'd still be cautious given the velocity at which it dumped into this monthly level. That monthly level is holding up for now. We've basically just taken out the high and low of the initial trading range established down here, so I would expect a lot of crabbing probably.

Given that we just took out the low, we really shouldn't spend much time back below the range low/monthly support. If we do and don't immediately wick back up, I would expect further downside. I'd give it another week or two to let bitcoin decide what it wants to do and reevaluate the chart from there.

[Anonymous No.24640018]

>>24631080
And it's also retards investing who know nothing about stocks. Predictable. Emotional.

[Anonymous No.24640072]

>>24640018
It's beautiful isn't it? Crypto TA is really the thing that all cunts on this site should be the best at, or at least this would've held true years ago, but I'm still confident there's enough of a holdout of other faggots who can't move on who'd make the best traders. Shill these generals far and wide so we can build each other up in the hurtbox and make absolute fucking stacks.

[Anonymous No.24640294]

giving 1 last bump before I pass out. if you lads can keep this bread going, I'll be back with more analysis

[Anonymous No.24640324]

>>24640072
>>24640018
>>24631080
crypto is not forex you mongs. Crypto is an illiquid market in a constant search for liquidity to fill in orders and the main thing that moves BTC market is liquidations and stop hunts to then fill LARGE orders. Liquidations implies market buys/sells. If you dont understand this ur a fucking spastic that shouldnt be trading. You`ll cry "muh manipulayshun" getting liquidated going 100x long on BTC cuz duh line told you so. Earning reports dont happen to currencies either. But guess why I know ur a beginner?

What is a TA? There are lot of definitions, but what is it for? To predict the price movements. Now, with TA you know what will happen, but you dont know why. Cause, not the reason. And with fundamental analysis, you understand the reason without proper understanding of the cause. That said, earning reports shouldn`t concern you as they all are taken into account. Now, you ever heard of Jim Simons? He`s somewhat big data scientist and his fund makes 60% ROI yoy. He once said an interesting thing: he cant calculate influence of his funds flooding the market as it is too hard. But in crypto every whale is Jim Simons. And ur saying you can take all their strategies into account?

[Anonymous No.24640337]

>>24640324
*cause and consequence, fuck it i need some sleep

[Anonymous No.24640413]

I just want to thank for posting this thread, and hopefully it will remain a constant one. I'll share my newfag TA shit later.

[Anonymous No.24640434]

Nice thread OP
I hope this continues to get posted for the better of the board, both for TAfags and nonTAfags

>>24640324
It's a somewhat liquid market now though, and will become increasingly more so
Relying on memelines I feel is only 1/4th or less of the puzzle when looking at volume, where we are the market cycle, and certain onchain metrics as well as broad sentiment, if you think you can get a handle on it

[Anonymous No.24640532]

>>24630211
If you are a trader you aren't supposed to hold

[Anonymous No.24640558]

>>24632743
>that said, even as an investor, you should explicitly define the conditions by which your idea is invalidated
laughs in TQQQ

[Anonymous No.24640620]

>>24632152
Looks very good. Buy at 18.09

[Anonymous No.24640635]

>>24627255
Am kinda new to memeline astrology so thanks for providing all those resources friend.

Wanted to share this trend I spotted on the eth/btc pair on the one hour timeframe. Spotted the h&s pattern and figured we were going to find ourselves in a downward channel and it's following it so far. You think alts and boomercoin are in for more pain ahead?

[Anonymous No.24640724]

if you want to have a chance at this market here is the deal. its a trick they dont want you to know. the secret to profitable trades and financially independently lies in something much simpler than you think. I will tell you it now. the only reason they dont want you to know is because of income from fees but here is the deal: stop trading small time frames. if there is any timeframes to trade efficiently it is at smallest the daily chart. the best is the weekly chart. remember this: on the daily and the weekly chart work the simplest systems and you pay the least fees and the signals + trends are the most reliable. apply really simple types of strategies. that is all. you are welcome.