[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 831 KB, 1886x847, file.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23629984 No.23629984 [Reply] [Original]

i have originally posted it on /pol/, but they seem to be too retarded to read

I have considered voting for Biden for some quick buck, but decided to do my due dilligence first, and the results are baffling.

None of the models account for revealed preferences
- total number of registrations since 2016, Florida GOP-DEM is 59% to 41%
- new FL voter registrations by race:
white 68% GOP, 7% dem (despite of all the news outlets talking about new young white voters & women who voted for trump in 2016 but have been put off, that are going to swing it for biden)
- monthly unit sales of firearms experience steady increase (up by 85% march, 145% june)
- social media:
yt 1.2m to 230k subs, like dislike ratio is 95% to 65%
instagram 22.1m to 4.3m
facebook 29m to 2.7m likes
twitter 86.4m to 10.1m|
- hats:
maga 12,759, biden 395/month
at amazon, the highest number of reviews for biden is at 150, and there are very few of them. for trump you hunt of reviews, the highest number is 4k.
- same goes for signs

Is it impossible to account for revealed preferences in prediction models, or what?

>> No.23629991

>>23629984
i have also noticed that the more flawed methodology of a poll/model is, the worse it goes for trump. for example the model that puts him at 4% uses data from 2012 onwards, doesn't account for 'black swan' events (look at 2016).

btw some of these numbers may be outdated by like a month

>> No.23630034
File: 9 KB, 225x225, 12362fgsdg546.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23630034

>>23629984
polls are irrelevant, look at 2016. its all about energy levels. looks at the biden vs trump crowds. if you really want to lose your money, bet on biden with Bitcoin atomic p2p swaps here: https://atomic.finance/odds/app/dashboard

>> No.23630063

>>23630034
I AM HOMO ECONOMICUS, I DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR THINGS THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PRECISELY MEASURE

>> No.23630242
File: 61 KB, 400x264, pepe-sog-satoshi-compressed-400x264.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23630242

>>23630063
this is why youll never fail, but never succeed either. you need to have a conviction and risk it on that conviction. if you really think Biden will win, put your bitcoin on it. otherwise, you are lying to yourself, and know the truth. Trump will win. https://atomic.finance/odds/app/dashboard

>> No.23630305

>>23629984
>Don't bet
Tell that to this maniac >>23612997

>> No.23630367

>>23630242
fuck off taleb, i haven't left /lit/ only to meet you here

>> No.23630597
File: 96 KB, 483x454, cmVKHeQ.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23630597

>>23629984
hello JIDF
BET ON TRUMP
https://stake.com/?c=66f35248e9

>> No.23630840

I think frm the common sense poll, Trump will win with about 63%. People are sat at home on the internet more than ever, all you have to do Is legitamately scroll through his twitter and see all the shit he is doing to realise he is the better option. I think your perception has been heavily swayed by the media. The exact same shit happened in the UK. all over social media everyone was going mental sharing left wing stuff. Ended up losing by a landslide, the loudest people usually have to most uncommon views

>> No.23630844

Biden at 60c is the best bet you'll see in years. So much dumb maga money in the prediction markets, it's the opposite situation of 2016 where the markets were way too bullish on hillary

>> No.23630934

>>23630844
You're retarded.

>> No.23630989

>>23630840
nah, i accounted only for polls, models, and revealed preferences.

>> No.23631076

>>23630840
>common sense
>in a country of mutts