Does Technical Analaysis Work?

[Anonymous No.23347023]

[Anonymous No.23347031]

>>23347023
short answer no
long answer not in the long run

[Anonymous No.23347033]

>>23347023
Does astrology and moon runes?

[Anonymous No.23347039]

>>23347031
what works?

[Anonymous No.23347049]

>>23347039
Releasing new viruses to crash the economy at will

[Anonymous No.23347088]

>>23347023
On established markets yes, on 3 day old uniswap shit tokens no

[Anonymous No.23347090]

>>23347039
JPMorgan says millionaires don't need astrology, but billionaires do. You would be infinitely better off investing the time you will spend learning TA reading whitepapers and learning about how the mechanics of various things work and then investing on tokens will mechanics that will result in price rises as usage increases and has a high probability of being used widescale. Your entry doesn't matter much, short term price means nothing, and the idea that you will be able to read the future out of the "patterns" in the chart is ludicrous when no two charts are the same as price necessarily has a Time component that is impossible to account for.

TA is astrology for Men who like to gamble on the stars and success based upon it is nothing more than recency bias as almost all traders get burned. Not needed for investing. Just buy LINK

[Anonymous No.23347098]

>>23347023
Why wouldnt it work?

[Anonymous No.23347101]

>>23347023
geometric patterns? no
accum/distru is the most legitimate form of t/a

[Anonymous No.23347118]

>>23347101
how do you identify periods of accumulation and distribution?

[Anonymous No.23347130]

>>23347098
well if it worked, 90% of traders wouldn't be losing money

[Anonymous No.23347146]

Experience is what works

[Anonymous No.23347177]

>>23347101
Wrong.

[Anonymous No.23347187]

>>23347130
Becase they belive it works and therefor they use it, but they dont understand how to use it.

[Anonymous No.23347196]

>>23347187
what exactly must you understand?

[Anonymous No.23347202]

>>23347023
works for me

[Anonymous No.23347203]

>>23347090
give a fuck about what jpmorgan says

[Anonymous No.23347211]

>>23347202
does it stop working if you go lower than weekly/daily timeframes?

[Anonymous No.23347215]

>>23347196
That TA is not math with only one right answer. Its at best creative directional guidance. Reason risk/reward is such a huge part of the game.

[Anonymous No.23347225]

>>23347023
TA does not work. Meme magic does work though.

[Anonymous No.23347228]

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[Anonymous No.23347235]

>>23347215
so it doesn't work but it can give you decent profit loss/ratios? As in the entry is meaningless just as long as your winners are bigger than your loser?

[Anonymous No.23347240]

It works for the people selling books about it.

It doesn't work for the people trying to apply it.

[Anonymous No.23347242]

>>23347228
go shit somewhere else, pajeet scammer cunt

[Anonymous No.23347397]

TA absolutely fucking works, you must have an IQ way below average if you're still not convinced of its effectiveness, after so many /biz/ test studies

[Anonymous No.23347411]

sometimes

[Anonymous No.23347798]

It works in the sense that you can begin to use probability to help to manage your risk, and only if you are able to think like a machine and not like a human. Otherwise no.

[Anonymous No.23347858]

>>23347798
if it's only about managing risk, then entries are meaningless. Just pick a direction and make sure that you stoploss is less than your take profit

[Anonymous No.23347992]

>>23347023
only 50% of the time

[Anonymous No.23348112]

There are patterns that you can see, but you are against professional traders and algorithms. You won't win over them. Day traders lose 90% of the time and beat index funds even less often. So if you already have money, put it in something without management fees like an index fund and if you don't have money wage slave or invest in something speculative like bitcoin or tesla.

[Anonymous No.23348141]

>>23347023
It does work very well to explain price patterns that happened in the past. It doesn't work to predict future because none of TA formations have very high probability of occurring. So there's a chance your price prediction based on TA will be right and actually your chance is better than just guessing, but not much better.

[Anonymous No.23348272]

>>23348141
everything is based on past data, right? Aren't Hedge fund algos working off of past data?

[Anonymous No.23348292]

>>23347235
Put it this way. You can go bet on a team playing and you have 50/50 chance of winning. Or you could do some research and figure out what team is better and now your odds are 70/30.

Thats TA.

[Anonymous No.23348310]

>>23348292
isn't that fundamental analysis?

[Anonymous No.23348335]

>>23348310
Try doing fundamental analysis on 4h candles.

Does fundamental analysis have any impact on how the price will be manipulated next 2-3 weeks?

[Anonymous No.23348965]

Idk about TA but mathematicians like mandelbrot who invented half the shit that wall street uses today habe said that the models they use are total bullshit.

[Anonymous No.23349192]

Oh yeah it works fine till the President tweets something whilst taking his morning shit

[Anonymous No.23349240]

If everyone believes in a ta formation does that make it real?

[Anonymous No.23349794]

>>23347023
yes, depends what you mean by technical analysis.

for some it means patterns,
for some it is support/resistances
drawing trendlines and such.

for some it means moving average crossovers.
for some it means reversion to the mean strategies (similar to rsi).

one thing that is common to ALL is that each have some sort of win rate (probability of profitability for any given trade)

moving average strats tend to be trend following and can have a win rate all from 35 to 55 percent. they usually should have a risk reward of at least 1(risk):2(or more reward).
ex:
for a strategy with 40 percent win rate
out of ten trades 4 were wins and 6 were losses.
the 4 wins 2*4 = 8 in profit
the 6 losses of 1*6=6 in loss

if 8 > 6,
profit = true


a good mean reversion strategy has a way higher win rate of 70 to 90 percent.
here you need a different risk reward ratio. in fact it can be 1:1 or even 1:0.5 where your winning trades would be half of your losing trades.
since your strat has 80% win rate:
2*1=2 in loss.
8*0.5=4 in win.

optimal for a 80% strat desu would be 1:1 RR ratio though if possible.

EXAMPLE:
I have a moving average strat on the daily chart.
simple ema crossover.
when price crosses above ema of 20 days, go long, when price crosses under ema of 20 days you go short.
out of 10 times that you got signals, three of them were major wins. like 10%, 10% and 20%.
out of 7 times you got a losing signal you lost 2%,4%,3%,1%,0.5%,1% and 2%.

since we got short or long based on ema AND you do not bet more than 5% (or less or more) you would not even need a stop loss since the moving average system will exit the trade as soon as is dictated by the ema.
if you are serious about doing TA with risk management and everything, you should code your trading so that you can backtest thoroughly and over several years.
also, for TA higher timeframes is more dependable.

[Anonymous No.23349819]

>>23349794
thanks for the serious answer

[Anonymous No.23349990]

>>23349794
How does backtesting account for slippage?

[Anonymous No.23350046]

If something has real investors actually interested it will likely see closer following of TA. People will look for the same signs and act in the same way when see the same signs. That pushes the price in the expected TA direction.

[Anonymous No.23350069]

the problem that EVERYONE has in the beginning is impatience, lack of discipline and a lack of a clear plan. the theory is not even that complicated, its the execution and the fact that you are present WHEN the action will happen, when the trend comes.
presence is equally as important as everything else because you can miss trends when they come.
this is why I like higher time frames. they let me follow the market without staring at the screen every day trading 30min or 1 hour charts.

[Anonymous No.23350075]

>>23347023
No. And it was proven scientifically.

[Anonymous No.23350117]

>>23349990
take your average slippage and add it to your fees

[Anonymous No.23350190]

>>23350069
you find your entries and exits on 4 hour and daily candles? Do you ever check lower timeframes?

[Anonymous No.23350284]

Yes it works. Why do you think biz fuds it?

[Anonymous No.23350420]

>>23350190
some people trade weekly and fine tune their entries with the daily.
I personally just trade the weekly chart. Before that I was trading the daily charts but stopped a month ago because of a lack of time. Basically what I do is algorithmic manual execution trading. I am not yet rich but I am keeping afloat. my PNL since 2 months has more or less +/- 0. I count on being present though and when the time comes, I will ride the trend. for example, my last monero trade was very profitable since I got a buy signal 4 weeks ago. less so for a dash trade which will end up a loss when I close it.

[Anonymous No.23350431]

>>23347023
The whales know the TA to lure people around it, for starters.

[Anonymous No.23350464]

>>23350420
Tradingview has a crypto screener where you can screen for cryptos on the rise. Don't know which indicators you like but weekly macd and stoch rsi are pretty solid for entries and exits.

[Anonymous No.23350502]

Just buy fundamentals on low caps
Its easy cause most dont have any.
So just look for any that does.

[Anonymous No.23350848]

>>23350502
>Just buy fundamentals on low caps
So much rubbish gets shilled here

[Anon No.23350865]

>>23350420

Wait, you don't watch the minute by minute update of the chart and precognitively plan when major moves are going to happen.

Yikes..

[Anonymous No.23351029]

>>23347039
value

[Anonymous No.23351238]

tired of TA guys??? come here >>23350834

[Anonymous No.23351250]

>>23347039
Markets are all speed and information asymmetry. Insider trading is good.

[Anonymous No.23351294]

>repoasting from so called 'ta general' since that died
TA is odd.
On one hand, some of it is obviously tea leaf bullshit. Like fuck off with your 'three spinning doji'
But no one will invest in a stock or coin without looking at the graph first. They are plastered on all the websites
The past price action is clearly useful info, so it follows that analyzing that can be useful too. Things like 'highers lows' represent buyers front running each other so is clearly bullish, etc.
Mainly I use residence levels a lot and give a small weight towards trend lines.

[Anonymous No.23351494]

>>23348965
Markets are generally bullshit in the short term

[Anonymous No.23351532]

>>23347039
Warren Buffet says to buy into companies who have a good product and good business plan.

[Anonymous No.23351612]

>>23347130
>90% of traders wouldn't be losing money
fuck you're on about?