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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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23289791 No.23289791 [Reply] [Original]

Let's cut the fuckin shit. Is a second crash incoming? I've got a fat stack of cash ready for use; just in case.

TELL ME RIOGHT FUCKING NOAW!

>> No.23289818

Hopium

>> No.23289985

I think so too, no idea why people are still buying

>> No.23290012

>>23289791
I am tempted to buy right now buy my gut instinct tells me that there is too much hopium going on and because of that there will be sellers. Plus, with the American elections, traditionally stonks don't go up.

>> No.23290071

>>23289791
Either the Chinese aids will fuck us, or the election will. Personally, I’m tethered up until the storm is over. I’ll be watching the charts for that sweet, sweet $5 LINK though.

>> No.23290076

>>23289985
Why would they keep cash that is decreasing in value?

>> No.23290203

>>23289791

IF it is gonna happen, its gonna happen after Biden gets in.

He said he would be willing to lock down the country if experts recommend it, 50,000 cases daily, number going up every week.

>> No.23290217

>>23289791
yes and it will be worse then the first one. enjoy bottompicking anon. will be nice AF. and the mutts are gonna poomp the market back up. giga helicopter money bullrun after the crash

>> No.23290237

>>23289791
no. stop being retarded. you missed a once in a hundred years move in the markets.

>> No.23290255

>>23289791
No, by now it's clear it's a nothingburger.
Covid has the same IFR as the flu, even without a vaccine.

The US is at 112% excess mortality, so 12% over the average, which is a very standard deviation.

>> No.23290333

>>23289791
PRICED IN

>> No.23290525

>>23290255
>The US is at 112% excess mortality, so 12% over the average, which is a very standard deviation.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note that the US is in a big downtrend when it comes to weekly deaths compared to the average deaths in the same week during the past years.
At this rate, the US is going to end the year 2020 with FEWER deaths than average compared to previous years.

>> No.23290600

That's the point of black swans. People don't think it's possible yet it happens.
An incredible rally on stocks, retards making lots of money. Normies investing, cases skyrocketing while the winter comes.
Then the deaths start multiplying (watch Rusia) and "oh no, how did this happen, it was a flu!"

>> No.23290690

>>23290600
>An incredible rally on stocks, retards making lots of money. Normies investing, cases skyrocketing while the winter comes.
lel you forgot the part where stocks crashed worse than ever before in March.
Worse than the 29 crash.

>"oh no, how did this happen, it was a flu!"
Same IFR as the flu.
And that's without a vaccine.

>> No.23290700

crash any time between right now and May 2021 around the fake Covid-21 lockdown.

>> No.23290779
File: 184 KB, 483x470, 1562277495605.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23290779

>>23289791
A March-style collapse is uniquely unlikely for the same reason why another crash after the 1987 Black Monday collapse was very unlikely.

The crash seared itself into the minds of all participants. They acted accordingly by adjusting risk exposure pre-emptively.

>> No.23290810

>>23290779
based

>> No.23290916

>>23289791
The numbers are growing, but i don't know if they will actually close.
Economy is at a shit-tier level already, no one can afford lockdowns.

>> No.23291019

>>23290779
FUNDAMENTALED

>> No.23291040

>>23290779
next level simping right there

>> No.23291124 [DELETED] 
File: 50 KB, 814x500, 1602300692996.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23291124

>>23290779
Was the entire economy leveraged on the gibs printing in 87?

>> No.23291167
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23291167

>>23290779
Was the entire economy leveraged on gibs printing in 87?

>> No.23291173
File: 107 KB, 1920x1080, Venezuelan-Stock-Market.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23291173

>>23291124
Even if you're bearish on the economy (imo markets and economy are 2 different things), it's cognitive dissonance to on one hand believe they are printing too much money and on the other to be bearish on asset prices. See pic related and the Weimar stock market during the 20s. Gibs printing leads to massive bull markets.

>> No.23291197

>>23291173
for >>23291167

>> No.23291333
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23291333

>>23291173
The economy boomed around the world in the 20s until it really fucking didn't.

>> No.23291433
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23291433

>>23291333
>>23291333
Not in Weimar Germany. The economy was absolutely destroyed during the early 20s thanks to WWI, yet stocks went into a massive bull market thanks to inflation.

Anyways, markets are not the economy nowadays. Not only are markets forward looking, they have become political. The fed and govt support markets because pensions would collapse otherwise. Not artificially propping up the market like they have done the last 20 years is too politically expensive. Inflation is going to send stocks into a long bull market, regardless of the economy.

>> No.23291510

>>23289791
Between january and april 2021.

>> No.23291599
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23291599

>>23291433
>Inflation good!

Ok, annon.

>> No.23291652

>>23289791
The problem was never the chinese flu in the first place. The problem are the lockdowns.

If thoses idiots politicians starts closing up everything again, especially in the US, expect a dump.

On the other hand, in the long term lockdowns are weakening the fiat currencies, since governments will have to keep printing it to oblivion.

>> No.23291654
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23291654

>>23291599
Nowhere did I say whether inflation is good or not. I merely pointed out that is the direction central banks and govts are going. It's cognitive dissonance to believe inflation is coming but be bearish on asset prices.

>> No.23291691

>>23291510
This. February crash.

>> No.23291731

>>23290779
People think the virus is a flu and nothing can happen. Or course it will crash again, harder this time, and a lot of companies will go bankrupt (bye cruiselines)

>> No.23291750

>>23291599
you are a retard

>> No.23291761

>>23290071
>I’ll be watching the charts for that sweet, sweet $5 LINK though.

you'll be watching for a very long time

>> No.23291773

>>23290690
Worse than the 29 crash? Do you know how many decades people bagheld their stocks? March was a flash crash. Not a real crash

>> No.23291815
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23291815

>>23290690
>cases skyrocketing
THE CASES!!!

>> No.23291848

>>23290525
You are right but politicians don't care about facts. In Europe they are imposing restrictions all over again just because "muh cases" are going up. Even when most of those "cases" are only asymptomatic PCR positives that doesn't mean shit.

>> No.23291905
File: 161 KB, 1677x947, swedendeaths.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
23291905

>>23291731
It is the flu. Sweden, no lockdowns, no masks, had worse FLU seasons in 1993 and 2000.

>> No.23291946
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23291946

>>23290333
Checked. Paycheck going in

>> No.23291963

I would say yes but it’s hard to time , could happened tomorrow or in 1 year

>> No.23292022

>>23291433
This makes sense but at some point people will take profit and there could be huge sell offs before another run

>> No.23292029

I've been tether for a month. Waiting patiently. Any crash happening and I'm instantly going all in, if it doesn't well it doesn't, btc won't go above 12k for the time being

>> No.23292106

>>23291905
sweden isn't full of obese and retarded slobs. i'm not afraid of the chink flu because i'm not a disgusting pig, but it probably stands to kill a lot more of us (per capita) than sweden considering we're pushing a 42% obesity rate compared to sweden's 19%.

>> No.23292326

already the dip now. Loading some KEX and CVP

>> No.23292533

>>23289791
I have a 50% cash position. Every time a deposit I make which tips that balance into excess of that I rebalance. Beats a 100% cash position or a 100% stocks position in these times. If bonds weren't shit I would park my cash there.

>> No.23292580
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23292580

>>23289791
The fact that /biz/ is so certain it won’t happen is making me think it’s definitely going to happen.

>> No.23292648

>>23292580
This. Betting against /biz/ is the smart play.

>> No.23293387

>>23289791
every normie is half cashed out you think the market crashes when everyone is ready to buy the dip?

Brace for the pumps of pumps followed by the crashes of crashes after that we likely go back to middle ages standards of orgies and peasants

>> No.23293482

no, buy the dip in tourism/oil, don't be a brainlet and try to time the market by waiting for the apocalyptic crash. that's not going to happen, i know it's hard for zoomers/millennials to understand but every crash isnt like the 1929 one they learned about in their art history class. if you want to make it, you buy when there is blood in the water. you buy the dip. you dollar cost average. you diversify. or, you do things like /biz/ and gamble on shitcoins, and wage until you cant take it anymore and end up dangling at the end of a rope in your 200sqft apartments bathroom because you're a loser.

>> No.23293684

>>23290525
Uhh, that model is predictive of the standard deviation, meaning it's 12% higher than an expected deviation. In fairness, the model is pretty flawed due to a severe lack of data, but if what you're getting from those numbers is "no big deal", you're not reading it right.

>> No.23293779

>>23293684
you lefties just cant admit you were wrong and shut down the economy over nothing lol. this is why trump's going to win in a landslide, and why i will laugh all the way to the bank because i bought the dip on ccl/xom.

>> No.23293879

>>23293779
How many CCL shares did you buy? 100.000?

>> No.23293934

>>23293482
>When stocks go down, buy them, always! They always recover!
Brainwashed sheep that can't understand the situation. Enjoy bagholding Carnival cruiselines and getting diluted until you lose all your money...Because you're so sure that they will recover that you went all in, right anon? If you didn't then you're not so sure

>> No.23294275

>>23290076
The fed is actually terrified of hyperdeflation and are forcing us into at least a little inflation despite the massive economic risks of doing so. Your cash is not decreasing in value any faster than normal, and the stock market is so volatile it's hard to say that you'll have a positive return on the medium term. 100% cash is a viable strat right now. The reason for the frenzy is young, retarded new money dumping in because it worked for the boomers. It's impossible to know if it will turn out.

>> No.23294691

>>23291848
the numbers are being massaged and interpreted in a way that creates a neverending doomsday scenario out of the flu. this is mass insanity and i don't know if there's a single entity orchestrating all of it, but there seems to be a conspiracy among nations to keep it going. if not, we really have a bunch of fools running the show

>> No.23294853
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23294853

>>23294691
“Who benefits the most?” is the question you need to ask in a situation like this one.
In this case, corporations do. Small businesses are crushed, allowing the Amazons and Walmarts of the world to complete their grasp on your wallet.
The ultra rich will get richer, the working class will finally disappear, and the unemployed class will grow as UBI systems are instituted.
You’ll either work from home, collect neetbux, or work in an amazon facility. All while wearing a mask, forever.
This is the “new normal”. This plan has been in motion since at least 1971, this virus was the catalyst they needed to push the reset button.

>> No.23295246

>>23293934
This is a good point. Things are changing fast. I doubt the average person will be vacationing for several years.

>> No.23295444

>>23290779
I agree completely but this is only true only until everyone (or crucial majority) start thinking like this

>> No.23295584

>>23289791
>coronavirus crash
Better start believing in them. You're in one.

>> No.23296506

>>23290779
>They acted accordingly by adjusting risk exposure pre-emptively.
First thing a lot of people did was buying cruiselines and airlines during a fucking pandemic, and they still do, buying the bags of the big hands that need to sell them without dropping the price a lot.
People are yoloing with options, penny stocks, dead industries or investing in retardedly overpriced tech stocks.
Yeah, they sure adjusted their risk exposure bro. Nice joke

>> No.23296751

>>23296506
The first thing people will do when the next round of lockdowns happen is sell all their stocks to keep the max amount of money possible, or go full bear and short the market. Because a lot of people feel that stocks are overpriced and on the verge of collapse. It's so obvious that its going to happen, but permasheeps won't notice

>> No.23296763

Trump victory, stimulus passing, finish "vaccines" and real reopening of burgerland there will be a massive bullrun. As bull market levels off ubi will be introduced as well as cheap disruptive tech will be accessible to everyone to keep comfy levels, release of digital currency backed by nothing so slaves work for nothing, start of energy security global warming bubble to keep the ponzi running.

>> No.23296852

>>23296763
There will be a massive dissapointment. At best the market will crab for years. Check France or United Kingdom cases evolution and ask yourself if USA numbers aren't lower than they tell you.

>> No.23296887

>>23296852
Higher* lel, meant to say that they are telling lower numbers than the truth, sorry for my retarded English

>> No.23297180

>>23296887
Hard to believe, they would rather have bigger numbers to keep the fear going so they have more time to transition to new model. I think winter will have a big spike due to natural flu season but overall they cant keep the narrative going and after winter spike passes its only up from here. China and other countries that acted earlier were able to clear the air rather quickly, i highly doubt the west is this incompetent, already many studies showing things like natural immune boosters that will massively reduce the need of icu as well as studies faking of data + all vulnerable population is 70+.

>> No.23297252
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23297252

>>23289791
yes, but not due to Corona. One of these two events will cause the next leg down:
-Democrats refusing to accept the eleciton results when Trump inevitably wins
-Three Gorges Dam takes a shit and wipes out 100 million gooks.

>> No.23297488

>>23290237
Literally happened 12 years ago as well, dipshit.

>> No.23297536

>>23294853
Fuck, that pic made me cringe. I fucking hate UN now.

>> No.23297801

>>23290237

happens every 8-12 years.
kys

>> No.23297990

>>23297252
>muh 3 gorges
I remember when you /pol/ faggots were saying it was going to burst this summer lmao, what a fucking nothing burger. the same way that covid was going to kill all the chinese right? oops wrong about that too lmao

>> No.23298100

>>23297536
This is the world we live in. It will happen faster than we think.