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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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23019692 No.23019692 [Reply] [Original]

Will interest rates ever go up again? or are we just going to have cheap money being loaned out until the system finally collapses.

If so, doesn't it just make sense to get a mortgage now, since the longer you wait, the more fucked you'll be?

A 3 bedroom house in a middle-class post-code is going to be like $5,000,000 by 2030s at this rate, and wages will still be stagnated like they have been for most of the 21st century.

So then what? Are you going to sit on your hands waiting for interest rates to go back up so prices can stop skyrocketing? or what?

Shit seems fucked, its almost as if we're going to be 100% getting a socialist/communist takeover in the west.

>> No.23019712

>>23019692
>we're going to be 100% getting a socialist/communist takeover in the west
Lol obviously

>> No.23019747

>>23019692
No, interest rates will never go up again. Look at Japan for an idea of what's coming

>> No.23019761

Communism is good.

You will love.

>> No.23019786

>>23019747
So why is housing so cheap in Japan then?

>> No.23019807
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23019807

>>23019692
>interest rates
Fake interest rates or actual interest rates?

>> No.23019858

>>23019786
The housing market in Japan is a completely different ballgame because property devalues the second you sign the deed. Also, their population is dropping off a cliff.

The first is unique to Japan. The second isn't.

>> No.23019892

My parents had to sell their house awhile back after getting foreclosed on. They have $400,000 in a investment account that theyve managed to save/invest.

I told them to buy a house but they refuse to buy one because they dont have to enough to buy where they want to buy, and theyre too old to get a loan. They're in their 60s now and still refuse to lower their standards of where they live, and insist on only wanting to live in a place where the average house cost is $1,000,000+. Why are they like this? Why wont they just accept they cant afford to buy in a $1m+ area, and to just go buy a $400k house, and stop paying rent

>> No.23019919

>>23019858
>The housing market in Japan is a completely different ballgame because property devalues the second you sign the deed.

Really? Here in Australia, there are people who buy and sell property before the sale is even completed, because they can make like $50,000 in a few weeks buy finding another buyer. Housing price goes up so fast here that you can literally do that. Its insane.

>> No.23019920

>>23019692
Imagine worrying about interest rates when BonFi is about to launch.

>> No.23019932
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23019932

>>23019692
>>23019786
Housing is cheap in Japan because they have been in an economic contraction for decades. Another way to say that is they have been fighting off deflationary pressures. Look at people who bought condos in Tokyo in 1991 (basically where we are in the US now).

Regarding your OP
>will rates go up?
This will cause a debt crisis. Our countries interest payments on outstanding debts will be too big. Rates cannot go up unless debt goes down bigly.

>cheap money being loaned out eternally
Right now even with cheap money apparently lending growth is contracting. That means the market is saying that rates need to be even LOWER. Its possible to have negative rates, like in Denmark where you can get a mortgage with a -0.5% rate (get paid to take a loan).

>doesn't it make sense to mortgage now?
IMO rates will go lower AND house prices will go lower.

Caveats to the above is the whole financial reset, US CBDC implementation and shiiet.

>> No.23020009
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23020009

>coronavirus lockdown
>crippled economy
>house prices in australia still going up as normal as if nothing has happened

Im never going to own a house, am i?

>> No.23020151

>>23020009
Commercial real estate in the US is going to be ludicrously cheap in 2021 and 2022. I plan on taking a portion of my portfolio in 2024 and buying an estate in Europe for pennies on the dollar. Real estate is not a good investment right now. It will be in a few years. Until then, learn and earn.

>> No.23020180

>>23019807
That's inflation, not interest rates

>> No.23020653

>>23019919
Even nowadays though? Some meme regional areas are going up in price because of people leaving cities, but for the most part I thought property values are pretty stagnant at the moment. I'm looking at houses in QLD around the $400K mark and right now I can afford to do it, but I have the same concerns as OP where I just know because I'm an unlucky fucker interest rates will go up and soon as I sign the mortgage.

I just can't see how they can do it though because increasing interest rates means a collapse of everything as we know it, surely?

>> No.23020728

>>23020653
You are correct; they can't let rates increase. If things stay on track as they are you could expect a negative interest rate mortgage:

https://www.businessinsider.com/danish-bank-offers-mortgages-at-negative-interest-rates-2019-8

>> No.23020862

>>23020728
Could you explain to a brainlet how negative interest rates would work? Is it better to secure a mortgage now, before negative interest rates are introduced?

>> No.23020881

>>23019692
Low interest rates create inflation by outright consequence.

Unless there is another deflationary period, interest rates may and likely will be ridiculously low (less than 5-6%).

>> No.23020904

>>23020881
I should also add that these companies that are pro-immigration may very well, and probably does, want this just as a lowering of labor cost. Instead of having to move operations overseas for cheaper labor, they want it to come to them.

It's a short game with long term consequences. Thing is, they'll probably dead or too loaded to give a rip when the tide does come back in.

>> No.23020940

>>23020009
Housing could crash when the economy opens up and when the CARES act expires. People aren't paying their mortgages.

>> No.23021108

>>23019892
Because they're fucking retards. There you go. I bet they also love "muh 'good' niggerinos" and condemn "antisemitism". They deserve what they fucking get.

>> No.23021141

>>23020940
>could
Not a matter of if. It will. Once the elections are over and the cdc eviction halt orders and forebearances expire, the housing market is going to dive right off a cliff. And interest rates will hilariously stay stupidly low through it all too.

>> No.23021187
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23021187

>>23019692
>100% getting a socialist/communist takeover in the west.

>> No.23021253

>>23021141
How are you so sure of this? In the US for example house prices are going up in suburban areas because city people can work remotely now due to COVID. That and the ever-increasing US population makes me think that house prices are going to go sideways or up.

>> No.23021272

>>23020862
In this case the bank is so desperate for customers that they are paying you to take a loan. In the Danish case of -0.5%, that means if you're paying $2000 per month on the mortgage, the bank pays you back $10.

They are doing this because otherwise no one in Denmark will take out loans. Also, in denmark, savings accounts pay no interest and could potentially start charging people to keep their money in banks.

>> No.23021347

>>23021253
Because increasing interest rates will negatively and proportionally affect growth of the re market. And those few people "moving out to the burbs" won't float the market against the incoming tidal wave of foreclosures. Not to mention that those homes are massively overpriced post-covid because there's barely any decent houses available on the market now and the retards who are buying right now are all tearing at each other for a home that's going to financially ruin them in 2 years.

>> No.23021393
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23021393

>>23021347
>Not to mention that those homes are massively overpriced post-covid because there's barely any decent houses available on the market now
I'm looking for land and a home and can't find a good deal anywhere.
The stock market is hitting all time highs like nothing is happening.
The Fed is buying corporate and housing debt to keep it all propped up.

When will this end?
Is the central bank going to end up owning the entire country before I have a chance to buy one?

>> No.23021486
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23021486

>>23021347
I hear you, home-dawg, but increasing interest rates?

Just look back at QE 1 2 3 , it took 10 years before they tried to raise interest rates slightly, and they couldn't. Now we are at triple the debt levels, across the board.

>>23021393
>When will this end

I think monetary reset, central bank digital currencies, planned behavioral economies, and MMT are becoming increasingly likely...

>> No.23021596

>>23021486
Is there anywhere in the world that's not doing this insane bullshit?
I was looking at St. Kitts, St. Barts, etc. to gtfo of USA.

It's not like I'd get a favorable loan anyways being a white man, no job, and living off bitcoin for last 3 years.

>> No.23021831

>>23021272
Yeah I understand that much. The reason I ask is I've seen a lot of people say it's a good idea to get in now before shit hits the fan, I'm not sure if they're referring to negative interest rates or not.

>> No.23022014

>>23021831
If you buy now it will be harder for the Fed to redistribute it to blacks in the future.

>> No.23022350

>>23021831
I don't think negative rates is shit hitting the fan. Its more of a sign that the economy is in secular stagnation + heading to deflation. If those conditions persist, then you will have bought the top, and your house will depreciate in value every year like in Japan.

>> No.23022776

>>23019692
>The interest rate is down to 2% on this $350,000 mortgage!!!
Better a 9.5% rate on a reasonably priced house, anon.

>> No.23023131

>>23019692
Eventually the market will force interest rates much higher.

>> No.23023226

here in chile prices are still rising and shit still hasn't exploded.
I also want to buy a house and this crap is driving me crazy. where are the cheap fucking houses FFS.

>> No.23023304
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23023304

>>23019761
>You will love.

Sure thing, тoвapищ!

>> No.23023311

If our country wasn't damned already, a 0.5% interest hike would certainly do us in. Shits bad out there

>> No.23023569

>>23020653
Split the loan. Depending on your bet on event of rise or further fall. 60%variable and 40% fixed (3 years). Refinance after 3 years.

>> No.23023968
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23023968

No. we are in a debt trap and interest rates cant go up without collapsing the system. so the government(s) will have to keep printing money and using monetary policy to keep debts paids. This will of course cause massive inflation and real values of assets will decrease.

House prices in $ will skyrocket, prices in Gold/oz will plummet.

>> No.23023985

>a socialist/communist takeover in the west.
what the fuck does this even mean lmao

>> No.23024174
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23024174

>>23023968
>House prices in $ will skyrocket, prices in Gold/oz will plummet.
Yeah, right.

>> No.23024179

>>23019692
Safex
it's over guys, traditional finance...it's all over.

>> No.23024192

>>23023968
>House prices in $ will skyrocket, prices in Gold/oz will plummet.
QE Money printing and rate decrease started way before 2019 yet gold price was decreasing. I agree with the first part but the second part not so much

>> No.23024461
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23024461

>>23024192
I think Anon doesn't understand nominal vs real prices and what an asset is. So basically, their whole sentence.

>> No.23025096
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23025096

>>23024192
>>23024461
>QE Money printing and rate decrease started way before 2019 yet gold price was decreasing.

>> No.23025107
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23025107

>>23024192
>>23024461

>> No.23025183

>>23019692
Since a mortage for an house is cheap now shoul I take a loan?
Also mortage pices declining... doesn't this mean that price of house will go up cause more and more people will want to buy (since the interest on loans are cheap)?