Critical Analysis of BAT

[Anonymous No.2253417]

Basic Attention Token
Most of you will have heard about yesterday's major ICO -- Basic Attention Token. From what I understand, it broke all other ICO records and cleared $36M worth of tokens in 24 seconds. Being one of the countless lowly plebs still attempting to get his ethereum across the network 10 min later, only to find out I never stood a fucking chance was eye opening.

Once it hit exchanges, it ended up stabilizing around 5x what it was purchased during the ICO for about $.03, if you convert it to $ now it trades at about $.15.

So, at ICO, people purchased coins at $.03. If we were to value this like we value a company selling shares as a public company we could multiply the number of shares in existence by the current price of each share.

In this case we'd get:

1,500,000,000 * $.03 = 45,000,000.

After it hit liquid.io: 1,500,000,000 * $.15 = $225,000,000

(cont.)

[Anonymous No.2253421]

So, if this were a publicly traded company, anyone who is buying at that price, is saying "yes, we agree that this company is worth $225,000,000

Except, cryptos are not publicly traded companies. They are a highly abstract asset class, that imo require an underlying utility to qualify as worth while investments.

In bitcoin’s case it’s primary function is to store and transfer wealth.

In ETH’s case it is a store of value, used to incentivize minors to partake in the network.

LTC is able to transfer wealth very quickly.

But from what i can tell BAT is primarily a funding vehicle for this company. Except, you’re not getting any equity in the company. Instead your getting a voucher which will be used to trade dollars between two parties trying to advertise with/for each other.

(cont.)

[Anonymous No.2253430]

What I’m getting at, is what does BAT do that a dollar can’t? Why wouldn’t advertisers not just pay people in dollars? Whats the point of adding this extra element in the middle of two parties?

I suppose, with supposedly decentralized token you remove any middleman. Ok, great, that makes sense to me. So, then how can we go about evaluating what this token is actually worth.

The best way I can come up with is to try and figure out how much BTC of $ will actually be held in BAT at any given time. To do this, I’m trying to determine how much “ad revenue” will be poured into BAT.

Youtube: 27.4 Billion a year
Google adwords

Adwords: 75 Billion

According to this article: http://www.adweek.com/digital/u-s-digital-advertising-will-make-83-billion-this-year-says-emarketer/

The total ad revenue over the whole internet is 84B…

(cont.)

[Anonymous No.2253440]

So for the sake of this argument lets assume 90Billion (somewhere in-between the above figures).

Then lets assume (very liberally), brave gets half of that — 45 Billion.

So, if 20% (again being liberal) is held as BAT:

45,000,000,000 * .2 = 9,000,000,000

There are 1,500,000,000 tokens in supply.

If the whole market cap for the token is now 9,000,000,000 we can divide that number by the total supply and get:

9,000,000,000 / 1,500,000,000 = 6

$6 a token.

If you bought it today, you would have paid $.60 a token — 1/10 of what I believe is the best upside of this coin.

So, in the crypto world, where 10x returns happen in a week sometime, I find myself holding about $500 worth of this stuff that has a very slim possibility of giving me a 10x return over a period of 5-10 years?

(cont.)

[Anonymous No.2253447]

Anyway, tell what you fags think. Is there something I’m missing? Is this just a completely retarded analysis?

I feel that there isn’t enough of this kind of discussion on here. And I think most people are buying coins without every trying to analyze what they should truly be worth. It seems that a lot of coins being sold are really just an easy way of people getting around IPO law and then not actually selling any equity.

[Anonymous No.2253456]

>>2253440
Correction: its $.15 not $.60

Not sure where I got that from.

So, actually you're 1/40th of where it could maaaaaaaybe (but probably not) go.

[Anonymous No.2253496]

>>2253417
>Logical analysis on crypto

You have no power here

[Anonymous No.2253507]

>>2253496
lol I love you

[Anonymous No.2253509]

>>2253496
When markets are acting irrationally its probably because theres a lot of dumb money speculating on that market. If logic has no power he, we're all probably fucked.

>>2253507
Thats hot

[Anonymous No.2253520]

I think the only issues with your analysis is that the only reason it went up so much is because only 7 (yes 7) addresses actually bought any of the tokens, with one(!) person getting 25% of everything.

It got pumped hard. As for the rest of your analysis, you sound smarter than me but just a few points to consider:
1. Its value is based on etheruem
2. Brave has had some legal issues with its built in ad block, companies probably won't get involved with a semi illegal browser.

Anyway, my opinion is buy a bit if you want, and wait for poloniex to pump it when it gets on the exchange.