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21497626 No.21497626 [Reply] [Original]

Have you ever bet a substantial amount of money on a sports game /biz/? I've been playing around with chump change lately, it has been fun. 3 wins, 1 loss so far, have made a bit of pocket money.

>> No.21497675
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21497675

>>21497626
Pic of the winnings for those who are curious. Never been much of a gambler, mainly started this out of boredom to make the playoffs more interesting. Been toying with upping my bets to $20 a piece though.

>> No.21497818

>>21497675
man just stop. Just stop now.

>> No.21497866

>>21497818
I never bet more than I can afford to lose but I can see how people get addicted to this shit and lose thousands. I think betting beyond anything than the team winning in regulation or overtime is way too risky.

>> No.21498013

>>21497626
>Have you ever bet a substantial amount of money on a sports game /biz/?
I routinely make about 2K over the course of an NFL season. May sit out this year because Covid, going to see how things go after a couple weeks but your bet size should depend on your bankroll, mine is about 5K and the average bet is about $150. I bet mostly over/under and money line parlays, stay away from teasers and player props unless you have inside info.

>> No.21498052

>>21498013
>I routinely make about 2K over the course of an NFL season
how?

>> No.21498096

>>21498013
>unless you have inside info
How to get them?

>> No.21498151

>>21498013
show winnings or larp
>>21497626
margin on sports betting is up to 8%, you got lucky with variance but the house edge will fuck you in the end
if you actually want to do this with profit you're gonna have to do shitloads of datascraping and building models, i've tried and it ain't easy

>> No.21498190
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21498190

>>21497626

>> No.21498206

Wtf i can see the tag on her undies
2/10

>> No.21498251

follow "yourdailycapper" on instagram, he's a """professional"" sports better, he's pretty good though, as a sick villa and a rolls, you can pay for is picks, idk how much cuz i don't sportsbet, but he always posts his results in story, might be worth to lurk the story for a bit

>> No.21498252

>>21498151
awe man.

Still better odds than scratch and win tickets lel

>> No.21498257

>>21497626
That's a man

>> No.21498303

>>21497626
I really wish I could smell a woman’s ass.

>> No.21498310

>>21498257
You would know faggot

>> No.21498570

>>21497626
I do a few crazy accumulators on the UFC every card, usually $5 or $10 stake with a pick on most of the fights. try to avoid womens fights though.
I justify it by not paying the PPV and watching on crackstreams
Unlikely to win but if they do the pay out can be a few thousand dollars.
I used to do English football but switched to UFC because draws screwed me too many times.
Had a few wins, biggest was $3200 a few years ago.

>> No.21499151

>>21498570
Nice, that's a good chunk of cash

>> No.21499258

>>101565206

>> No.21499441

Why bet with fiat when you can bet with crypto using exodus?

>> No.21499447

>>21497626
Yeah. It’s fun, gets very addicting very fast and very easy to lose it all. I made over 30k starting with a BR of $500. Only really was able to keep $5k of it. Learn BR management, parlays are fun but don’t get your hopes up, spreads are great, int basketball is all rigged, look up some discord’s for for some sharps. Made about $2k on an overs/indeed model I made last season. Fun shit.

>> No.21499708

>>21498096
>>unless you have inside info
>How to get them?

>> No.21499794

>>21499447
Yes all sports are rigged at some point.
Amazing all the UFC fans who refuse to believe that its a fix even when the judges make a crazy call, they still think its incompetence.
Trying to explain the power and reach of Asian betting syndicates to those retards is impossible.

>> No.21500131

>>21498303
you should ask for doggy, lick her ass and then give her pound town
easynut.exe

>> No.21500144

>>21499708
You dont. My strategy always was (i only bet european soccer and KHL) always always watch the fucking weather for soccer matches.

When its raining like hell everything is on the table, especially when the underdog is playing at home.

Second, which applies most to the KHL and why its so predictable sometimes these teams have to travel from helsinki to be-motherfucking-jing to play some ice hockey. If the away are almost sure of play-offs end of season bet ur ass the hometeam will easy win since they dont have to unironically travel 2000km

>> No.21500276

>>21500144
>hometeam will easy win since they dont have to unironically travel 2000km

home edge is well known, any model will price that in

people seem to forget betting markets are open markets just like stock market and they are efficient to a certain extend

>> No.21500331

>>21497626
sports betting is incrediblely easy. I only bet NBA and have went from 50 bucks to 2k in like 2 weeks.
Bubble play makes it way easier. Bet big on lopsides games with solid parlays. Done

>> No.21500515

>>21497626
Some advice? NEVER EVER go all in on a "sure bet"... I built a 5k bankroll up from an initial 20 dollar deposit during an NFL season. I was money the entire time... I decided to go big on a "sure bet" that I was so confident on. I was up... I was winning the bet... And then 30 seconds left in the game, the opposing team gets an 80 yard td run to cover the spread and fucked me. I've never bet in sports since....

>> No.21500642

>>21497626
Looks like my gf

>> No.21500856

>>21500642
I’m jealous. Are you a Chad/really outgoing and muscular? Ever smell it?

>> No.21500954

I used to bet on sports all the time. Started in college, betting fairly small. I eventually learned about reverse line movement and became more experienced at identifying stronger plays. Had a damn good system going, if I was patient and didnt force any plays I was more successful. I was in college and only working a couple days a week making minimum wage but I worked myself up to a bankroll of 5k and was placing 1k per game and winning. If you can afford to flat bet with a substantial bankroll then reverse line movement is a very nice tool to be able to identify. I used it almost exclusively and did very well, but the stress and swings got to me. I can actually say I quit gambling before I graduated college which sounds kinda funny.
Be careful, a lot of people who dont think theyd ever get addicted do get addicted and/or simply get into a cycle of "I just need to win one bet to recoup those losses" and it can be a vicious cycle.
If you cant afford to lose every penny that you're wagering, you cant afford to place the bet.

>> No.21501221

>>21497626
ok now some actual usefull advise
SCRAPE DATA & BACKTEST MODEL
turn odds to decimal

house edge "juice" on a 1-2 bet is: 1/odd1 + 1/odd2
this number will always be >1 and this is how the bookies make money, your model has to beat this so closer to 1 is better


implied probability of an outcome would be: (1/odd)/juice

EG: 50-50 outcome: odds: 1.85 - 1.85

juice = 1/1.85 + 1/1.85 = 1.081 = 8% juice

probability: (1/1.85)/1.081 = 0.50 = 50%

your model has to spit out it's own probability, if your model is good and has a edge > juice you have to bet, your bet amount should be defined by kelly criterion for best risk adjusted return, this is pretty important if you want to build bankroll

scraping data is not to hard with python, building a model can be done in python/R/excel or a combination of them but this step is extremly hard to get to beating the juice

sports betting is not a get rich quick scheme

don't buy picks, nobody with a working model would share it, they're scams

>> No.21501645

>>21497626
Not substantial amount. I have made some on boxing.