/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.19362912]

Will the markets finally start acting rational when wave 2 happens and corona is 15% lethal

[Anonymous No.19362943]

why 15%. did your anus just release this number?

[Anonymous No.19362954]

Mutation will be even less lethal.
The word nothingburger will no longer be suitable, we will have to introduce double-nothingburger to describe the second wave,

[Anonymous No.19362974]

>>19362912
They will start acting rationally irrational.

[Anonymous No.19362980]

>>19362912
That won't happen. Wave 2 will come, millions of Americans will die if we don't keep up with social distancing, but the IFR will probably not increase significantly over the current 1.2%. If anything, it might go down over time as there's no selection pressure to keep it high.
But 1.2% is high enough, when the R0 is so high. If we just let it rip we get 30x-50x the flu deaths, which is quite a lot. (10x more lethal than flu, reaches 3x-5x as many people).

[Anonymous No.19362989]

>>19362954
I still have no idea what nothingburger means 4 months into the meme

[Anonymous No.19363015]

>>19362912
There isn't going to be a bear market in a long time, especially not a Corona virus related one.
The general public is acting as if they've already accepted death.
It doesn't matter how many waves or deaths happen. The possibility of millions of deaths and even more have long been priced in.

[Anonymous No.19363040]

>>19362989
It means that the people who started out by stating that covid is nothing to take seriously because not even 1000 people has died from it in the US and it will soon be over then went on to say that 10,000 people dead is a non-event especially since the curve has peaked after which they now proceed to assert that 100,000 dead is nothing to worry about, and the virus is on the decline since we have magically reached herd immunity with a less than 10% infected population, so you see covid is as inconsequential as a hamburger with no meat in it, the opposite of something substantial.

[Anonymous No.19363053]

>>19362989
Nuffinburger niggers said there was no fillings in the doomburger

[Anonymous No.19363066]

>>19363015
>The possibility of millions of deaths and even more have long been priced in.
"priced in"? Nasdaq is at 5% below ATH, that's "pricing in" millions of dead and unemployed?

[Anonymous No.19363089]

>>19362912
>wave 2

[Anonymous No.19363107]

>>19363066

Yeah, all those dead and unmpleyoed computer scientist sure is hurting Facebook rite now. Except woah, the dead are 100 years old and the unemployed are hair-dressers.

[Anonymous No.19363121]

[Anonymous No.19363197]

>>19362980
Do you know how I know you're not a virologist?

Because I am one.

Protip: Second wave will be meaningless.

[Anonymous No.19363214]

cant wait to check back on this thread in half a year
bullfags will be dead by then

[Anonymous No.19363227]

Wave 2 isn't happening sorry.

[Anonymous No.19363231]

but the virus is made more lethal once exposed to Brazilian bats

[Anonymous No.19363252]

>>19363197
I'm a doctor in training, enlighten me.
I think we agree that a second wave is unavoidable, especially from autumn onward. Why would it be meaningless? COVID is definitely not a complete meme, spreads fast, and high-risk groups can die like flies. We are nowhere near herd immunity. Even when it comes down to historic examples (e.g. Spanish flu), the second wave was by far the biggest pain.

[Anonymous No.19363317]

>>19363107
The risk of dying from covid if you are 100 years old is still relatively low. For someone over 80, it's still going to be a better than 80% survival rate. The younger you go, the better the odds, for a healthy person under 40 the fatality is in the range of 1 in 10,000. You will almost certainly not die from covid and probably nobody in this thread will, even if we all get infected and some of us are old and/or sick.
But at the scale of 330 million people, low risks add up, so even though you won't die from covid, thousands of young and healthy people will, and even if your granny will probably survive, hundreds of thousands of grannies won't.
In fact, covid is less biased towards killing the old and frail than the common flu (with the exception of kids under 18). For normal flu, about 83% of deaths are over 65, for covid about 73% of deaths are over 65.
And "comorbidity" includes things like taking a heart pressure medicine. So it will in no way just be the obviously dying-from-cancer young who die from covid, either.
You may think that a couple million dead Americans and is no biggie and you may be right, but you should at least realize it certainly won't be just the very elderly and dying who die. You have a low risk, but at this scale given by covid's R0 it will be loads of people just like you who will die, and you /might/ be one of them. I'm not saying you should be scared, I'm saying you should afford some respect to those who will die, especially since many of them will be people similar to yourself.

[Anonymous No.19363318]

I finally gave in because I know corona is bullshit and I can't figure out why the market is behaving the way it is. I know there's the whole "le dollar demand" but I think it's likely the fed satisfies the demand to prevent currency appreciation.

So I put $1k on North America, $500 on emerging and $500 on other developed (indexes). $500 into singapore, $500 into Cameco (Uranium), $500 into Gazprom (Natural Gas) and $500 into a big gold miner.

Let's see how things shake out. I think those are relatively safe long-term bets.

[Anonymous No.19363329]

>>19363252
No no, trust him. He claims to be a virologist on an anonymous Internet forum and conveniently forgets to make any argument apart from authority.

[Anonymous No.19363373]

>>19363015

They have seen nothing. We need landwhiles laying on the street in heaps for real panic to start.

[Anonymous No.19363374]

>>19363197
Do you know how I know you're not a virologist?

[Anonymous No.19363436]

>>19363227
>Wave 2 isn't happening sorry.
How can you imagine that it's not?

[Anonymous No.19363486]

>>19363436
>>19363374
We're not closing shit down again, there's not going to be any support for it when food prices start rising and nobody has a job.

Assuming its a 1% death rate, life expectancy is 80. This lockdown going on until there's a vaccine is like losing a couple years of productive life. A lot of people (myself included) are willing to roll the dice.

[Anonymous No.19363549]

>>19363486
> Assuming its a 1% death rate, life expectancy is 80.
Sweden just did a study showing that people dying from covid lose an average of 13 years from their lives.

> We're not closing shit down again, there's not going to be any support for it when food prices start rising and nobody has a job.
The studies made so far indicate that you are wrong. People are not inclined to go to restaurants, send their kids to school or visit the hair dresser. And quite a lot of jobs depend on there being customers wanting to come visit.

> A lot of people (myself included) are willing to roll the dice.
A minority, according to studies, are willing to roll the dice. The problem is that you're rolling the dice for all of us, by increasing the prevalence of the virus. It's the anti-vaxxers all over again, but this time anti-social distancing.

[Anonymous No.19363570]

>>19363549
>A minority, according to studies, are willing to roll the dice. The problem is that you're rolling the dice for all of us, by increasing the prevalence of the virus. It's the anti-vaxxers all over again, but this time anti-social distancing.
fuck off faggot, cleansing the world of weak immune systems, old people and fat people is a good thing. It will make Social Security solvent, lower healthcare cost, and people more attractive

[Anonymous No.19363591]

>>19363486
>when food prices start rising
Food production and distribution is considered essential and was not affected by the lockdown. Food prices will rise, but that is regardless of lockdowns.

> and nobody has a job.
I guess I should have been more clear in my reply above that my point is studies on consumer confidence and willingness to just go out indicate that even with no lockdowns, nobody will have a job.

So we will have lockdowns again, since they will save millions of lives and the economy is beyond hope anyway.

[Anonymous No.19363611]

>>19363570
Sure, in the long run. But the economy can stay sour longer than the market can stay solvent.

[Anonymous No.19363625]

>>19362912
Why is the market irrational? Asset inflation always precedes real world currency inflation.

[Anonymous No.19363640]

>>19362912
Ok wtf
Malls in town open
No stores open along with it
Macy stock goes up wtf

[Anonymous No.19363641]

>>19363591
>>19363611
It's all bullshit, they said hospitals would be overflowing right now WITH strict quarantine measures. They are 1/3 capacity on average. They don't want to go back now because it would be an admission that they caused a depression because they trusted some faggot labcoat.

[Anonymous No.19363646]

>>19363570
the ones that die of flu or covid tend to have strong immune systems, not weak ones.

that's the bitch of the thing. It's often your immune response that kills you, not the virus.

but this is too much for the average retard to grasp I guess. So carry on with your ignorance and your rolling the dice.

[Anonymous No.19363652]

>>19363066
So you think the nasdaq mainly depends on social media users?

[Anonymous No.19363664]

>>19363646
Wrong, it's the immune response that makes it worse when it gets out of control, that doesn't mean people with strong immune systems get it worst.

[Anonymous No.19363676]

>>19363625
The market is not irrational and its movement so far is explained but what you point out, what's irrational is the delusion shared by many that this is not the dead cat bounce before the real crash but that all consequences from covid have been priced in by a 5% drop from ATH.

[Anonymous No.19363698]

>>19363664
>Wrong,
>agrees with me
learn to read, you literal tuber

[Anonymous No.19363712]

>>19363698
It's the mechanism of the immune response that makes it worse once you already get to the point where you're reeling from it. The people who get to that point are not the people with strong immune systems.

[Anonymous No.19363722]

>>19362912
>wave 2
no healthy person will submit to a second shutdown. boomers, fats, and sickos will just have to self quarantine all by themselves.

[Anonymous No.19363733]

>>19363641
> empty hospitals
They have different sections, those that care for covid patients and those that don't. The non-covid sections have been empty because nobody dares go to the hospital since they would catch covid. The covid sections have been overwhelmed in hotspots, but lockdowns have worked enough that we are back to capacity. If people stop social distancing (and won't go back to doing it in the face of evidence) we will soon have very severely overwhelmed hospitals everywhere, since the R0 under those circumstances is very high and so far we have only seen what happens when less than 10% of the population becomes infected.

[Anonymous No.19363742]

>>19363733
good fuck doctors and fuck nurses

[Anonymous No.19363746]

>>19363712
>The people who get to that point are not the people with strong immune systems.
strong enough to kill them

[Anonymous No.19363755]

Imagine thinking boomers won't pump everything to the high heavens while leaving the rest of us with trillions in debt to clean up...

[Anonymous No.19363770]

>>19363652
No I think the nasdaq mainly depends on companies that sell infrastructure to other companies that in turn sell infrastructure to companies that in turn sell massages, hair styling, night clubs, restaurants, etc etc.
The big IT companies will move their long term relative market share positions forward at the expense of the pie shrinking for the foreseeable future. Money streams will dry up. Nasdaq produces very little value (outside of, ahem, social media companies), it facilitates valuable production that in turn is about to hit a wall.

[Anonymous No.19363798]

>>19363722
This is what extroverts think. The rest of us (not just introverts, but normal people too) have finally seen what it's like to get a break from your bullshit and we're never going back.

[Anonymous No.19363819]

>>19363742
So a complete backtrack there, cool. But I bet in the next thread you will again claim hospitals are empty proving covid a nothing burger, until you are called out on your bullshit again and can retreat to "fuck nurses", thinking this somehow saves you some face.

[Anonymous No.19364585]

>>19363742

[Anonymous No.19364754]

>>19362980
>IFR
>currently 1.2%
lmao, even New York acknowledges it's way lower.
Fucking doomers, man. Worse than Karens at this point.

[Anonymous No.19364842]

>>19362912
the second wave does not matter. The economy is on fire and everyone except buffet thinks throwing money into the fire is a good idea.

[Anonymous No.19364889]

>>19364842
>The economy is on fire
More like "in forced inactivity".

[Anonymous No.19365026]

>>19362912
Priced in

[Anonymous No.19365153]

Bad news pumps the market. This is bullish if anything.

[Anonymous No.19365692]

>>19363318
Do yourself a favor and check in on them in 20 years

[Anonymous No.19365728]

>>19363549
>muh virus is unstoppable
>come on you idiots we have to stop it
Go watch more cnn, bitch.