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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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19048441 No.19048441 [Reply] [Original]

Is chart predicting a gamblers fallancy?
>If real benefit existed then the market would be beat by bots created by grad students
>Past should not predict the future, how do you know market has corrected in a certain point?
To me everyone who reads these things just waits until something hits their way and therefore the method is valid. Due to the vague nature of the predictions and the stock market it's extremely likely that eventually something expected will happen.

Am I wrong?

>> No.19048468

>>19048441
>>If real benefit existed then the market would be beat by bots created by grad students
Most trades are done by machines now, you are literally playing a game against these computers. You want to take their money and they want to take yours.

>> No.19048488

>>19048441
You know science is just drawing lines on graphs

>> No.19048499

>>19048468
Yeah but I'm talking about neetcode here. If a human could predict the future by candlesticks than I can code a bot that could too

>> No.19048602

>>19048441
I believe that technical analysis is useful, but only as a method of organizing things in your mind. An important part of trading is being able to plan and follow through your plan. "I will sell at this resistance, I will buy if this support holds..." your mind stays more focused if you see things through organized terminology.
But no, as far as predictive value goes, technical analysis is as good as astrology

>> No.19048669

>>19048441
You can predict movement with multiple time frames and just a MACD
It's not the perfect but it's relatively consistent (like 80% hit rate)
Other than that you're looking solely at support and resistance over long time frames with some basic knowledge of the way humans act with money
Like in OP chart
>people bought at red support line thinking it would hold
>some didn't sell
>those who held throughout that whole dip just want to get their money back
which is why you see resistance at the previous support, people just want to get the fuck out