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19035188 No.19035188 [Reply] [Original]

Why are so many people so awful at probability, statistics, and critical thinking?

This is embarrassing and not that far off from Pizzagate-tier "coincidences" shit. And even if it weren't, who the fuck is so grandiose and pretentious as to proclaim essentially "I found Satoshi guys, case closed"? Absolute confidence and certainty in an analysis is the first red flag that someone is peddling horseshit.

Several parts of this actually had me laughing. Basically Dorian Nakamoto all over again. More proof anyone able to decently produce a Youtube video and talk in a confident voice can convince smoothbrains into believing almost any garbage. And since I know a high percentage of 4chan is now composed of /pol/tards who swallow up any infographic or Youtube/Bitchute video as canon, this thread is probably about to be flooded by retards who think this is convincing. Youtube/reddit "investigators" are a scourge.

>> No.19035241

I don't get why people are obsessed with "finding" the guy anyway. Even if he's alive, he hasn't done anything for what, a decade now?

>> No.19035283

>>19035188
this
genesis block signed message or never happened

>> No.19035288

>>19035188
>>19035241
It's fucking Nick Szabo the guy thought up bitgold way back in 1998. 10 years later Bitcoin whitepaper comes out. Now delet this.

>> No.19035299

it's propaganda.
I just don't understand how dumb they have to be to think this propaganda is worth creating. What percentage of people will ever be aware of the scaling debate, then what percent of that group would not use something that gave them profit even if it was "centralized" which of course it isn't

>> No.19035327
File: 1.58 MB, 2398x1680, Screenshot at May 12 04-56-39.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19035327

>>19035241
I understand the interest just due to it being a pretty big and weird mystery. It's kind of historically unprecedented, as far as I know. But people have been looking for so long that anyone claiming to have solved it needs incredibly damning evidence, and this isn't even mediocre evidence.

My personal baseless guess is he's probably alive and will eventually donate/give away his Bitcoin at some later point in his life, or if he thinks he might die soon.

>>19035283
True for anyone making the claim they're Satoshi themselves, but for people trying to discover who it is, this wouldn't be relevant.

>>19035288
I don't think Szabo can be totally ruled out but the case for him isn't super strong, in my opinion. He might be the most likely suspect, but my guess is that it's someone who actually hasn't been publicly considered before.

>>19035299
Doubtful, I think it's just a Youtuber from reddit trying to make a buck. I think he genuinely believes he found Satoshi but is too dumb to understand the principles of actual rigorous investigation. There are lots of Youtuber "video essayists" like these popping up every month, and they're all about as retarded as this dude

>> No.19035336

>>19035188
If you have even a little bit of knowledge about the history of bitcoin, a little bit of understanding about the small list of potential candidates it could be, and watched this documentary, and dont think Adam is Satoshi then that makes you the smooth brain

>> No.19035383
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19035383

imagine talking shit about pizzagate
https://youtu.be/P8urOO0d7n8

>> No.19035396

>>19035336
Been into Bitcoin on /g/ since 2011 and have been vaguely interested in the Satoshi mystery since then. Yes, I watched this "documentary" (read: shitty Youtube video essay made by a teenager or mental teenager). I didn't take the effort to look into the other allegations against Adam (and don't really care either way), but as for the central point of him being Satoshi, the evidence is total dogshit.

I had this same reaction the day the Dorian Nakamoto article came out. I read it and was like "this is such complete bullshit" and then saw lots of people taking it seriously. I see it happen every day on 4chan with hundreds of inane conspiracy theories, too. So many people just seem incapable of Bayesian reasoning and critical evaluation of evidence and counter-evidence, especially on places like 4chan, reddit, and Youtube. Instead of Eternal September it's like Eternal Loose Change.

>>19035383
Case in point. Let me guess, you thought this Satoshi video was convincing too, right?

>> No.19035402
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19035402

>>19035396
>>19035336
This guy is almost like a parody.

>> No.19035406
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19035406

>>19035188
Pizza gate Israel
Craig is satoshi

>> No.19035411

>>19035396
do you have a 10minute memory? >>19035299

>> No.19035436

>>19035188
Adam Back is reference #6 in the holy whitepaper.
Nobody checked his bio since.

>> No.19035439

Something as simple as writing style can be a dead giveaway. The writing styles are so similar that it's cope to claim otherwise.
>b-but C++ coders type in similar ways!!
Lmao at that cope

>> No.19035447
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19035447

>>19035411
I didn't notice the same poster ID. Either way, you predictably seem gullible enough to fall for two conspiracy theories: that this video is "propaganda" and that Pizzagate isn't bullshit. I would bet some money that you believe in at least 5 of the following conspiracy theories: 9/11 inside job/Jews, Sandy Hook, Seth Rich murder, Holocaust fake, Osama bin Laden still alive, vaccines cause autism, AGW is a hoax, moon landing fake. And I would bet that you will reply to this post trying to argue about how [X theory] is actually real.

>> No.19035465
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19035465

>>19035439
Show me your rigorous stylometric analysis then, faggot.

I see almost no similarities in their writing styles whatsoever, plus I see lots of contradictory features.

>> No.19035477

My uncle is Satoshi, it's true. Also my dad works at Nintendo.

>> No.19035500

>>19035447
hahaha
https://youtu.be/KOooHlaA0pE debunk this you midwit

>> No.19035575
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19035575

>>19035500
You sure got me with that Youtube video from that Youtube channel. But yeah, thanks once again. You never see people believe in just one or two conspiracy theories. The deficiency that causes them to believe one also causes them to believe almost any theory they hear.

And when two conspiracy theorists/morons are in dispute, they both believe different yet equally ridiculous things. Like all the retards replying to this video saying it's so dumb and that Craig Wright is obviously Satoshi, not unlike your response to this allegation is that it's some propaganda plot from some cryptocurrency cartel

>> No.19035637
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19035637

>>19035575
>he called me a conspiracy theorist, how can I recover.
you sure got me with that complete lack of arguments.

>> No.19035640

>>19035575
You're the conspiracy theorist here, there is about 5 possible candidates, and a bunch if coincidences and anecdotal evidence points to one of those guys, but you choose to ignore the evidence and instead believe with zero evidence that it must be some other random mystery person who doesn't leave a trace, except for when he does leave a trace, in which case you just ignore it

You posses the mentality of an argumentive 8 year old who refuses to accept that he lost an argument. You saying "well you guys are wrong because sometimes people can be wrong" is laughable, "some people believe in UFOs and whacky conspiracies and stuff so he can't be Satoshi"

>> No.19035641
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19035641

>>19035575
this is pretty cringe bro

>> No.19035659

>>19035641
>>19035575
I am loving the desperation that started in the past 24 hours. wtf happened, is it over for btc?

>> No.19035664
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19035664

ITT: Bluepilled plebs

>> No.19035669

why were you compelled to make this thread? because you are triggered bud. you should re-evaluate what you're doing here on this image board. your anger only makes the fools laugh harder. about your opinion though, it's just that.

>> No.19035670

>>19035659
probably not, you should watch the video. the satoshi stuff is kind of secondary to blockstream's takeover of bitcoin and subsequent botching of scaling

>> No.19035685

>>19035670
tell me more

>> No.19035687

>>19035188
>Pizzagate-tier
pizzagate is real though

>> No.19035691

>>19035685
here's the video, ignore the title that's for redditors
https://youtu.be/XfcvX0P1b5g
enjoy and spread it

>> No.19035692

>>19035188
Ok Adam

>> No.19035705

also someone is posting this and it makes kikes absolutely seethe


https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7

https://medium.com/@johnblocke/a-brief-and-incomplete-history-of-censorship-in-r-bitcoin-c85a290fe43

https://medium.com/@johnblocke/r-bitcoin-censorship-revisited-58d5b1bdcd64

[YouTube] How The Banks Bought Bitcoin | Lightning Network (embed)

https://medium.com/scalar-capital/the-bitcoin-cash-story-e55b277491f9

https://medium.com/@jonaldfyookball/12-reasons-bitcoin-cash-is-the-real-bitcoin-8d5547988374

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/89z483/ama_ask_mike_anything/

https://txstreet.com/beta

pretty hilarious

>> No.19035716

>>19035691
what do you think of craig wright and bsv?
but what about the amaury dev tax?

>> No.19035722

>>19035716
craig's a hilariously incompetent fat fag
dunno about that other thing

>> No.19035728

>>19035722
so I should all in bch?

>> No.19035737

>>19035728
blockstream kikes are strong, bch is pretty cool though they're ultra cucked, depends how many people watch that video d e s u

>> No.19035747

>>19035670
This. The identity of Satoshi doesn't matter, what does matter is what (((Blockstream))) has done, and is planning to do to Bitcoin. Their motives are very sketchy.
I didn't want this blackpill.

>> No.19035756

>>19035299
Rate my tinfoil hat theory. It’s not bsv fanboys creating this fud, it’s btc whales. They are about to dump, but they have a lot of finesse these days and don’t just pump or dump willy nilly, since that looks too suspicious and also takes legitimacy/value away long term from the asset they are whales in, and hope to keep milking rather than exiting. So they try to time the pumps/dumps with big news (such as the corona crash) and sometimes they invent the news, like in this case. It gives them plausible deniability and something to point at when the price jumps up and down violently. This combined with the halving, a crash back to 3k will be no questions asked.
At any rate I like this fud, hopefully it will give me another chance to buy more.

>> No.19035758

>>19035737
what should i buy then?

>> No.19035759

>>19035758
knee pads probably

>> No.19035763

Anybody know Satoshi's wallet address (PK)?
Does he still have millions worth of BTC?
If so, he is probably dead.

>> No.19035765

>>19035756
EPIC

>> No.19035779

>>19035447
Well, Seth Rich was murdered.

>> No.19035795

>>19035756
na they're fucked. They've backpedaled on the last 3 years in one day, it's desperation anyway you look at it.
they apply shit like this https://youtu.be/FnT2FcuZaYI in situations where it doesn't work because they want it to be true

>> No.19035800
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19035800

>>19035288
It's provably Paul Le Roux aka Paul Solotshi aka RX aka John Bernard Bowlin.
He was a programmer specializing in cryptography, a cartel boss, an arms dealer and a guy who scammed multiple governments.

He created E4M and TrueCrypt.
He also started a project involving creating a cryptographic peer to peer currency back in 2002.

He had the incentive, the means and the interest to create bitcoin. He was also arrested in early 2012 and serves life in high security prison.

>> No.19035806

>>19035800
just sign bro

>> No.19035815

>>19035806
He can't, he's chained to a fucking wall in a prison cell. That's the point. He was arrested at the same time Satoshi disappeared forever.

>> No.19035830
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19035830

>>19035815
and posted afterwards twice from jail while being chained to the wall

>> No.19035839
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19035839

>>19035188
I'm from /pol/ and i know Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto.
BitCoin is BSV.

Satoshi doesn't double space after every sentence.

>> No.19035840

>>19035815
It's not him. Guy was way too busy managing his empire to sit down and create bitcoin

>> No.19035848
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19035848

>>19035815
thank god for that public ledger he made
https://youtu.be/np_ylvc8Zj8

>> No.19035861

>>19035830
>>19035840
Well, he got his sentence reduced and is coming out in 2037. I have no doubt he will cash out. So just 17 years left.

>> No.19035871

>>19035839
thanks for the compelling argument retardo, case closed

>> No.19035913

>>19035795
So it’s just “ok ok so craig isn’t suckatosho but hey, did you know nagasaki hiroshima was actually a bad guy who wants to kill bitcoin and loves banks!!” ?

>> No.19035970

>>19035913
it's that growing sense of panic that is slowly overcoming the cognitive dissonance that they believed they could contain this shit with shit arguments spammed en masse, when it was just doing the opposite of what was intended

>> No.19035996

>>19035871
>http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open-source?commentId=2003008%3AComment%3A9493
you can check his posts here faggot
anything with double spaces ain't him
i.e. the fake as shit email supporting small blockers

>> No.19036004

>>19035996
sorry i dont reply to brainlets
say sorry

>> No.19036013

>>19035763
That's the thing, he can prove he's satoshi to certain people and have them sign NDAs, then get paid through Blockstream via investments.

>> No.19036042

It wasn't an unmasking video it was an anti-blockstream video. I'd bet anything he was paid by a Ver associate shill.

>> No.19036067
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19036067

>>19036004
his p2p foundation posts just destroy the entire shill of adam being satoshi and leaves the valid argument of blockstream controlling all dissent
congrats on being npc#23874

>> No.19036102

>>19035188

training a neural net on texts of Satoshi and then check texts of potential candidates is a CS freshman assignment. This will significantly prune the list and probably nail the true one.

they did this with Shakespeare a decade ago or so.

fucking imbeciles.

>> No.19036114

>>19036067
adam would also already be rich from early mining and would have no need to join blockstream for profit, as another anon just pointed out in a different thread. i don't think the case for him being satoshi is very convincing, or even relevant; i care more about the blockstream fud which i think is the point of that video.

craig's just a retarded fag though, and if you think he's satoshi you're as gullible as they get

>> No.19036124

Finding satoshi is the modern day finding bigfoot/loch Ness. Only fame seekers unwilling to respect or understand why this dude went into hiding (or accepting that he's dead). Funny how these people who insist he's alive but hiding to protect his life from big banksters, Jews, billionaires or whatever also are the ones who want to uncover him (thus exposing him to said supposed dangers).
They're basically like that crew that cut down an entire forest to find bigfoot, giving no shit about the harm they caused.

>> No.19036150

>>19035996
Yeah you're still about as dumb as the YouTuber Investigator who made this shit video. Satoshi has used double spaces thousands of times. He hasn't always used them, but he definitely has used them a lot.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3;sa=showPosts

Ctrl+F two spaces.

The fact that Adam Back often does too is seen as a stylometric match by the video creator, but he clearly doesn't know how to into Bayesian reasoning to properly understand that evidence and fit it in. It'll probably sound like I'm lying but I actually have a fair bit of experience attributing anonymous identities based on writing style comparison, and I've looked at Satoshi's collection of known writing for a while.

>>19036102
Yes, obviously, and lots of people have done this over the past 10 years as one would of course expect. It's still not as simple as you think, for a lot of reasons. For one, with Shakespeare you had a pretty small set to compare his writings against. Today, depending on your search scope, you might need to compare Satoshi's writing against the writing of tens or hundreds of thousands of people. No super convincing similarity was ever found with the big suspects (Szabo, Finney, Dai, etc.).

Next time you call people imbeciles, maybe Google first.

>> No.19036176

>>19036042
Retards here keep falling for it. If you remove the spooky music and actually look at the pro-small block arguments it makes Back look like a saint trying to save Bitcoin from hucksters. Also, I always disliked Gavin. There was not a consensus supporting Gavin or Hearn.

>> No.19036198

>>19036150

No one have to copare with thousands of people. Just with a small list of actual candidates.

They key is amount of texts, not amount of people.

I know what I am talking about, you dont.

>> No.19036211

>>19036176
It was just the whole 2015 debate which has been thorughly put to bed and it's patently clear that the correct path was taken. There was no "consensus" as presented per the video, it was revolutionary nonsense and total bias.

>> No.19036217

>>19035188
>anyone able to talk in a confident voice can convince smoothbrains into believing almost any garbage
heh, thats me alright XD
t. smoothie

>> No.19036218

>>19036114
>adam would also already be rich from early mining and would have no need to join blockstream for profit, as another anon just pointed out in a different thread.
That was me. It makes absolutely no sense that Satoshi would create a legal entity to syphon off profits. Retards actually believe this, kek.

>> No.19036221

>>19035188
SN is NS Nick Szabo.
Listen to his podcast with Ferriss, he slips up...intentionally.
Also, BTC is the key pathway for the cashless society:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jfx7PnMtCeY

>> No.19036256

>>19035188

Everything which the video says in the first half, about Bitcoin's censorship and the block-size debate, is absolutely true. That is why Reddit is censoring it and considers it so dangerous. The banks want BTC to succeed, because it will centralize and control us. The original ideals of Bitcoin, as a decentralized peer-to-peer cash system, now live on only in BCH and /r/btc.

If the latter part of the video is true, then Adam Back, under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, made Wei Dai's b-money theory into a working system, only in order to corrupt it. Wei Dai, even though he was not the coder of Bitcoin, then becomes, in my eyes, the "true" Satoshi Nakamoto, the one we always idealized, and whose vision we tried to follow.

That Adam Back actually is Satoshi Nakamoto is not, however, something which I am convinced of, because the writing style and temperament of each man are so different.

>> No.19036278

>>19035664
i really liked this candidate tho XD

>> No.19036287

>>19036218
It does make sense you retard, he and blockstream can make millions for the rest of eternity without damaging the value of the underlying asset, which is exactly what would have happened if Satoshi just sold his coins to make hundreds of millions

He's making that money anwyay, and he, or blockstream still possess those bitcoins

>> No.19036289

>>19036102
>>19036150

>>19036198
Yes, retard, I just said that: "No super convincing similarity was ever found with the big suspects (Szabo, Finney, Dai, etc.)."

People have been trying that for a decade. No one has convincingly found a match yet. Obviously corpus sizes make a big difference, but number of candidates also matters.

For example, one of many instances of shitty attempts to attribute Satoshi to Szabo through stylometry, pointed out by Gwern: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ruluz/satoshi_nakamoto_is_probably_nick_szabo/cdr2vgu/ (source: https://likeinamirror.wordpress.com/2013/12/01/satoshi-nakamoto-is-probably-nick-szabo/))

Maybe everyone just did it poorly, or maybe there are some suspects who just haven't been compared yet, but so far nothing helpful has come out of it. Either way, if you're so good at it and no one else is, then why haven't you done it yet and tried to find Satoshi? What's your GitHub? What's a single stylometry and/or ML project you've ever created in your life?

>> No.19036372

>>19035830
Retard alert
There's no proof he posted even once.

>> No.19036383
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19036383

>>19035396
>>19035447
>twitter screen grabs
>maximum damage control
>forgetting post id's
What are you really doing here huh? Fucking redditor tourist clown. Go back to your bitcoin circlejerk.

>> No.19036451

>>19036287
I'm not buying it. This would imply Satoshi had ill intentions and planned this all from the beginning. He actually planned to create a well known cryptocurrency, then cripple it to earn a small percentage in transaction fees. It's ridiculous to even entertain the idea.

>> No.19036497
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19036497

>>19035188
>Why are so many people so awful at probability, statistics, and critical thinking?
cause their human? The above are skills that are developed over time, aren't they?

Why does this video trigger you so much? I found it entertaining and I learned a thing or two.

You are painting a broad brush with everyone who believes in a conspiracy theory is wrong. Are you applying your rigorous analysis to all conspiracy theories so you know they are all false?

For less aggravating content you might like
Myles Power
https://www.youtube.com/user/powerm1985/videos
The latest video debunking David Icke about 5G are hilarious. Even noble prize winners can be lunatics is a lesson I got out that video.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Thunderf00t/videos
The latest video about the UFOs is just great.

Since you seem to be able to think is there anyone who does good research in the crypto space?
Unironically ChicoCrypto is ok cause he provides source documents, he's too much of a stoner 'muh globalist are gonna get us' to be tolerable under corona conditions, so I'm taking a break from him.

My personal strategy is to look at all evidence from conspiracy nuts and their detractors to build the best model of reality I can.
Conspiracy and deception are part of biology, so it definitely exists in human societies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Fortitude

>> No.19036631
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19036631

>>19036451
>I'm not buying it. This would imply Satoshi had ill intentions and planned this all from the beginning. He actually planned to create a well known cryptocurrency, then cripple it to earn a small percentage in transaction fees. It's ridiculous to even entertain the idea.

I agree with you, when I heard that part I was like wtf kind of reason is that?
If Satoshi is an anonymous Billionaire now why go through all this just to keep blocksizes small and collect fees? Also if big blocks are amazing go use BSV.

If you want the ultimate level of lunacy you might like this video, Craig = Jesus, *facepalm*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbzCE8wUnoA

The parts I found most interesting were they lack of work output during the period from Adam Back when Satoshi was creating Bitcoin. Based on this guys review of Nick Szabo being Satoshi, maybe there was collaboration between the old cypherpunks to create Bitcoin.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEH2DSX8PKlDpW6OLK8TJWQ/videos

>> No.19036640
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19036640

>>19035188
Just another random anon here with another random guess.

I'm convinced it's Hal Finney.
Reading through the cypherpunks newsgroup, the VERY FIRST message posted about bitcoin after Satoshi released the very first working software version, was Hal making a 10 million dollar bitcoin prediction.
pic

This was after an entire day of no one replying to Satoshi (it seems, based on my search results of the cypherpunks newsgroup).

He basically got ignored for an entire day, then this guy, who has previously participated in similar discussions on said newsgroup on topics like hashcash and decentralized currency, suddenly makes a 10 million dollar prediction.

Combined with the possibility that Satoshi supposedly mined a million BTC, and how all Satoshi activity stopped and Hal Finney is also dead... I'm pretty convinced.

Refutations are welcome though (things like conflicting timezones or speech patterns, out just timelines not matching etc).

>> No.19036676

>>19036640
I don't see how Hal could be Satoshi because it would mean he was constantly communicating with himself for a long period of time. That's peak schizo. Why not just release it under your own name, or get BTC working properly before releasing it rather than emailing yourself bugs.

>> No.19036677

>>19035188
>>19035383
>>19035406
>>19035687
>pizzagate is real though
Very very fuckin real. I hope every day to hear the news that those involved have met with some brutal rough justice. Make it happen, faggots.

>> No.19036709
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19036709

>>19036677
reddit and CNN told me it's not real so it isn't

check and mate right wing gun nut

>> No.19036742

>>19036676
It's not peak schizo imo
From DAY ONE, Hal was predicting $10 million dollar bitcoin.

If you had such a high hope for your project, and you also intended to mine a million bitcoins on your own (implying very high ambition), you'd want to keep the target off your own head as well.

In a 10 million dollar bitcoin world, a person with a million bitcoins can rule even over countries, probably even rule the world.

If he saw that far ahead on DAY ONE, but still wanted to join the conversation re: bitcoin, pretending to be a 3rd party is very believable.

>> No.19036781

>>19036742
>you'd want to keep the target off your own head as well.
Well how about the far less complicated option: don't talk about Bitcoin at all as Hal Finney. Why go out of your way to stay anonymous, then be the very first person to contact the creator?

>> No.19036898
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19036898

>>19036781
Maybe he also had a side that feared his software would disappear into obscurity after an entire day of being ignored?

After all, it was released by a literal who, who was also completely anonymous.

At least that way, it had the name of a famous cypherpunk as one of the participants.

If you look at the other posts Satoshi made in the newsgroup before the v0.1 release (the whitepaper responses etc), they were mostly critical and doubters (pic), probably since he was an anonymous nobody.

>> No.19037094

>>19036898
>>19036781
If it's Hal then how come we see Satoshi posting from various legit emails etc long after his death?

>> No.19037166

>>19037094
As I said here
>>19036640
>Refutations are welcome though (things like conflicting timezones or speech patterns, out just timelines not matching etc).

Can you give specific examples?
Like I did with my attached images?