/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.18971270]

So, the central banks caused a massive Debt Leverage Bubble that's now about to pop. Not to mention the great productivity recession the central banks caused in 2008-2012 that lasted the whole 2010s.

Remember, the economic crisis is not because of coronavirus and lockdowns. They are rather the final blow to the debt bubble that's been about to pop for a while. The massive easening the central banks have done by buying bonds caused the government interest rates to crash, causing private banks to find profit from risky bonds whose rates crashed also, causing private banks to leverage the debt to beyond imagination.

First, there will be a massive unemployment wave. People are getting laid off en masse.

Second, the central banks strengthen their easening. But no amount of easening will increase consumption nor especially productivity. At best this will keep factories producing goods to fill the warehouses and stock them up, just like oil in March and April. This is already happening in China in a serious way: People's Bank of China is funding factories in China to keep production up only to store all the goods in warehouses. What will happen when the warehouses get filled up?

Third comes the bankrupt wave of the risky companies. Their debts will default which will cause a domino effect in the banking sector.

And the banking sector crisis, which will begin in Italy, will lead to serious consequences. The medium companies lose their funding causing lots of medium companies bankrupt. The central banks try their best to keep the banks afloat but in the end, the bubble will crash.

This will lead to the crash in tax money and debt money, making governments base their funding more and more on central bank easening.

[Anonymous No.18971271]

And that will lead to uncontrollable inflationary cycle which is something between Russia in the 90's and Weimar in the 1920's, which will destroy the pensions, savings, government funding and good companies' wellbeing.

And in the absolute worst case scenario, once the logistic chains are disrupted and 2nd Corona Wave hits, countries turn to protectionism banning a lot of exporting, especially food. This will lead to a global famine.

[Anonymous No.18971279]

>>18971271
Sure am glad I’m an american with gold and guns. Glad we’re food independent, glad we’re getting the chinese monkey off our backs. Fuck bankers though, let em hang.

[Anonymous No.18971304]

>>18971270
If you only knew how bad things truly are.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE

[Anonymous No.18971310]

>>18971270
>>18971271

if only there were a set of technologies and tools for their use coming on line that would drastically reduce operating costs and thus increase productivity. But, I don't think such a thing exists...

[Anonymous No.18971440]

>>18971310
Fuck chainlink

[Anonymous No.18971511]

>>18971270
Have you seen the 'Princes of the Yen'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

>>18971279
It's probably going to be the worst affected as you currently are the world reserve currency & are the de facto world central bank.
The brainwashing runs deep in burgerland.

[Anonymous No.18971531]

>>18971310
Middle Managers are dead when that thing gets implemented

[Anonymous No.18971539]

And we'll be too docile on Porn and Entertainment to care
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkbP-ZxAtOw&t=1s

[Anonymous No.18971598]

>>18971270
You don't get it. It doesn't matter - if the Fed has to go full Japan/China & create a perpetual buy wall along with currency controls it will. It won't let the precious boomers retire in misery because their stocks & property fell. Nobody cares about wagies, who are the only ones truly hurt by this. Infinite Money printing in a basically Nationalised economy, with some kind of UBI for the horde of unemployed poorfags to keep consooming is the result. And why not? Production is through the roof, there's so much surplus wealth (in assets & goods) that it's a joke. So the wealthy will do the same as always & have a ton of assets (that are the real wealth), while wagies get useless fiat bucks that are constantly devaluing and infinite national debt. Still doesn't matter. The governments & central banks have made it clear, there's no risk of defaulting, ever - so borrow & leverage, then borrow off the equity increase & leverage more. Repeat until infinity. The new paradigm - Stocks Only Go Up.

[Anonymous No.18971625]

>>18971598
Some good points here but I dont understand the hyperfocus on inflation. Inflation isn't high right now, the money you get holds value long enough for any wagie to spend it. It's not like those with USD are saving large amounts of it

[Anonymous No.18971629]

>>18971310
I unironically believe the theory that either the elites outright created crypto or coopted it, and the reason it's all still legal is it's an escape hatch (one they might very well need) if their whole plan of infinite debt backed economics fails. Let the wagies have worthless fiat to buy their bug burgers, the real currency - the world currency - will be cryptos.

[Anonymous No.18971700]

>>18971625
Exactly right. But that's due to the current level of deflation, caused by less consumption & general fear leading to cash hoarding. As a general rule - print money, inflation goes up (and a small amount is good actually). That's going to change as people have their neetbux & are itching to spend. But where it really loses buying power is in assets - right now, I know the government won't let anyone go bankrupt. So why not take out a mortgage and buy the most expensive property possible, even outside my means? Businesses are all thinking that way, it's a bonanza of free money if the government gives loans with no interest & no repayment terms, or takes the other side of junk bond trades, or outright cancels all your debts. So rapidly, those with actual assets will be way, way richer than those without. There's all kinds of feedback loops this causes. But I think it's the plan - it's gotta be intentional.

[Anonymous No.18971717]

>>18971700
>inflation rates are purely endogenously occurring

oh no no no no

[Anonymous No.18971770]

>>18971625
So the end result then anyway for "why its bad" is that wagies will NEVER own a house or anything worthwhile. They'll have enough to live in pods & eat bugs while they deliver Uber Eats part time, and watch shitty streaming shows on their iPhones, sure. But climbing out of that will be nearly impossible, kiss any kind of upwards mobility goodbye. In addition, this also means there's effectively no more free market. Its not exactly gonna be Ancapistan either where a wagie with a good idea can easily leverage their way out. Its the cyberpunk dystopia everyone knew is coming, and while it's cool to watch in anime form, it's gonna be shit for most.

[Anonymous No.18971785]

>>18971717
I didn't say they were brainlet. Its a /biz/ post, not an academic essay.

[Anonymous No.18971812]

>>18971785
Exogenous demand for USD is a huge part of the equation for overall inflation.