Could he replicate his success if he were to start over again?

[Anonymous No.18837522]

Imagine a hypothetical - Warren suddenly reverts to his 20 year old self, but in today's world. He loses all his wealth and assets, and starts again with the same equivalent wealth (adj for inflation) he had when he was originally 20.

Let's give him the added advantage of retaining all his life knowledge and experience from his old self.

Only thing that's changed is that he's physically young again and is starting over money-wise.

Could he replicate his success? In 60 years from now could he be a multi-millionaire, billionaire, or even one of the richest men in the world again?

Or was it mostly down to luck and timing, and he'd just end up another wagie with a modest investment portfolio?

[Anonymous No.18837558]

>>18837522
I shorted Berkshire with a 25 x leverage because fuck Waren Buffet he is an ancient dinosaur.
Made $1.7 million and I am about to go back in shorting the living shit out of it.

[Anonymous No.18837560]

>>18837522
It wasn't even luck, Buffets first big win was essentially insider trading, it just happened well before insider trading was at all regulated. Then he recognized the value of index investing early on, while other smarter minds conceived of it.

[Anonymous No.18837588]

>>18837522
of course not

everything is illegal now - all the businesses that made him rich would have to have diversity hires and hr departments and overseas call centers and the list goes on and on

it's over for america, that's why he is in so much cash

[Anonymous No.18837659]

>>18837588
Why is he against gold? I imagie 130 billion in gold is hard to liquidate or store but why in general?

[Anonymous No.18837693]

>>18837659
he doesn't really accept the gold as money view

which you have to to invest in gold

he quotes about "costing money to dig it up and then costs money to store it securely"

its a peculiar attitude that you only find in America who want to be utilitarian about everything economics, which is noble. But the growth story for america is starting to be univestable, as evidenced by his pile of cash.

At this point you "invest" in bubbles and trends. No one is actually looking into the stock market to find value which is Buffet's claim to fame

[Anonymous No.18837701]

>>18837659
Because gold is only useful to preserve wealth, but you usually don't earn money buying gold.

[Anonymous No.18837723]

Do you really want to know or is it yet another circlejerk thread for jealous losers?

[Anonymous No.18837738]

>>18837560
This. His biography is an interesting read, and he certainly is a good fundamentals trader but he's overblown.

[Anonymous No.18837754]

What compels a man who already has billions upon billions of dollars to continue investing and working? Especially when old as fuck.

Isn't it far more logical to, as soon as you have more wealth than you could ever possibly spend, to just retire and live a life of peace and luxury away from all the bullshit? Otherwise what's the fucking point?

[Anonymous No.18837774]

>>18837754
he doesn't seem to be that into luxury desu

[Anonymous No.18837782]

>>18837754
He said repeatedly he loved this sort of life even when losing a few thousand dollars was a huge deal for him. If he kept everything a secret and lived like a recluse the same people would attack him for it and compare him to Epstein or whoever. You can't win with vulgar people.

[Anonymous No.18837790]

>>18837774
Which just makes my question all the more poignant. Why does he even bother? The whole point of working is to earn money to live whatever lifestyle you're aiming for. If you already have billions - especially if you don't care for an ultra-luxurious lifestyle - then why not just quit early on when you already have enough "fuck you money" and just live a peaceful life?

[Anonymous No.18837799]

>>18837790
its a game, winning gives him dopamine in the brain and thats a motivation to keep going

[Anonymous No.18837805]

>>18837782
Retiring when you're already a billionaire != living like a recluse. I just don't understand the motive to continue going with this sort of thing when you already have more money then you'd ever know what to do with. This goes for more than just Warren too.

[Anonymous No.18837844]

>>18837754
There are two kinds of people:
People that are able to earn more wealth they could ever possibly spend (minority)
And
people that want to retire and live a life of peace and luxury away from all the bullshit (majority)
There is no overlap.

[Anonymous No.18837861]

>>18837844
Right, but why? Writing off this mindset as "just looking for a dopamine hit" like >>18837799 said doesn't seem like a satisfactory answer to their behavior.

[Anonymous No.18837862]

>>18837522
I think it's pretty ridiculous to think you can luck your way into a consistent 20+% return for 50 years

.>>18837659
Because gold doesn't produce anything. All you can do with gold is hope someone else is willing to pay more for it than you did. With a company you have a product being sold, you have a businesses structure you can improve, there's ways to grow it, therefore owning companies is a better investment strategy. If you get paid a dividend you never have to sell the stock so the price of the stock also is largely irrelevant.

>>18837754
You can't be the best at something if you don't love it. Retiring is one of the worst things you can do. Having goals, duties, and other drivers to keep him going is probably the only reason he's even 89 years old. Sitting on the couch drinking beers is the miserable thing I can think of.

[Anonymous No.18837897]

>>18837861
>why does dopamine in the brain motivate people
google it, im not going to spoonfeed you shit you should already know

[Anonymous No.18837909]

>>18837522
>Could he replicate his success if he were to start over again?
no. we arent at the start of a stock market bull run. also his corrupt politition father isnt alive to give him insider tips and money to invest from selling out his country to rich friends

[Anonymous No.18837936]

>>18837790

Because he enjoys doing it retard

[Anonymous No.18837965]

>>18837522
You are the devil trying to make a deal with him, aren't you?

[Anonymous No.18837981]

>>18837693
He has disparaged gold a lot, but also he has talked many times about the idea of understanding your circle of competence, and staying within that circle.

Buffett grew up and spent his entire career within the realm of fiat money and expansive growth that was allowed to proceed unhindered because of a vast unlocking of energy stores mixed with a money supply that was decoupled from physical assets. In a period of easy oil, if we had retained a sound money policy, growth would have been far lower. He has seen and lived the benefits of this policy.

Another reason he is skeptical of gold is because his father was an ardent advocate of sound money, and Warren saw that it took him nowhere. His father thought Roosevelt was going to hyperinflate the currency and destroy the economy, and spent a fair amount of his family’s wealth on things like Persian rugs, crystal chandeliers from France, and yes, lots of gold.

So there are reasons why he says what he says. I think Warren believes that this sort of relationship of easy money not getting in the way of economic growth will proceed forever, but I am skeptical, and this time it is because our energy sources are the problem. The period of easy oil is over, and is more akin to a mining operation nowadays. We can extract it is vast quantities at present, sure, but it is much more costly to do so and is only hap right now due to market manipulation and unsustainable financial engineering. The future is scarce, right oil with every county in the world aspiring to live like 1950s America. Lots of conflict, high priced hydrocarbons, and scarcity, and unless this changes because of a novel innovation, such as the mass adoption of new technology like cold fusion, sound money will have to return.

So I think it’s likely gold in the interim but this will quickly transition to a carbon money protocol where the currency we transact with is an enforced regime of carbon neutralization. Read Technocracy Study Course.

[Anonymous No.18837997]

>his corrupt politition father

Next they are going to explain to us how you can manipulate the world into becoming a congressman. And how easy it was for everyone born in 1903.

[Anonymous No.18838006]

>>18837861
>why
People in group A... want to do something.. they are driven. You meet them sometimes.
Here's an example.
Im a software developer. Its Sunday, im aint doing shit now.
My boss... There is a very high degree of probability he's doing some work-related research&coding right now. There's no deadline, or anyone above him making him. he simply wants to, thats all there is to it.

One could make an argument
>why do you want to sit doing nothing, instead of always trying to improve yourself?

[Anonymous No.18838019]

>>18837558
La basta

[Anonymous No.18838071]

>>18837981
>Technocracy Study Course.
Great post anon. Do you have any other recommendations on stuff to read? Want to learn more about where your thought process comes from

[Anonymous No.18838072]

>>18837522
Maybe? The kinds of beginning moves he made aren't possible now, though, and the world that he was investing in hasn't existed for a long time - the whole 'value investing" thing would be hard to pull off these days, getting started like he did - he bought in pre-boom for several industries.

[Anonymous No.18838096]

Let's imagine that around the time of Buffet, there were 10,000 boomers like him, all investing and trying to get rich (probably more, but let's go with it).

Now if we take said Boomers and replace them with monkeys who throw darts on a board to decide when/what to buy/sell, etc. Over a period of 20-30 years you will get some that will have beaten the market and of those, you might get even get a few who outperform the market by a large margin.

What the people who sternly believe it wasn't luck don't get, is that with enough boomers making big bets, enough insider trades and enough time, you can have another Warren Buffet.

Even if he truly 'made it' by skill alone, his advice is meme tier and it seems like he can't tell us the full truth. He comes across as the Jeb Bush of investing. Who is your greatest hero: 'my wife'.

[Anonymous No.18838137]

>>18838006
And that's probably why he's your boss.
I think one of the real challenges in the professional and working world is being able to monetize what you're passionate about. It's especially challenging when you're older and would have to take a significant number of steps back to make a jump into another industry.

[Anonymous No.18838158]

>>18838096
Yet there are no other warren buffets and there's no billionaire zoo keepers either.

[Anonymous No.18838300]

>>18838096
This is pretty much it. Sure he made good decisions and did things right, but so did a fucking lot of other people (as far as they could have known at the time), it's largely random in the end which of the many people who are doing things well actually succeed.

Could he do it again? He'd prob have about the same (low) chance as he had the first time around. He'd probably have a better chance if he DIDN'T have his old life experience and ideas, because that would hold him back. Markets and the economy are so different these days.


>>18838137
>And that's probably why he's your boss.

That's what he meant.

>>18838158
>Yet there are no other warren buffets

Why would there be? Someone has to do the best, even in a totally random situation.

>>18838158
>there's no billionaire zoo keepers either.

The fuck are you talking about. Biz needs an IQ test imo

[Anonymous No.18838333]

>>18838071
Thanks anon. TSC will completely change your perspective. Hubbert was 100 years too early. These are boring follow-up recs, but read annual reports of energy companies and companies building smart grid solutions. Also, ironically, blockchain startups. Another great source of ideas used to be Charlie Rose’s show when his guests were policymakers, but he isn’t on the air anymore. Archive is still up. I can give more esoteric recs if you want.

[Anonymous No.18838342]

>>18837522
no. warren buffet is "low hanging fruit" epitomized. lived through the most prosperous time in american history, through the post-ww2 rebuilding, the computer era, through the outsourcing era, and through, in general, a doubling of the united states population. he made a shit ton of money by simply existing and dumbly dumping majority stakes amount of money into corporations. (it also goes without saying that as a son of a congressman he had a shit ton of insider knowledge.) it's a lot like retarded boomers being millionaires through buying a shithole house 40 years ago, or paying the minimum contribution into their union pension or 401k. there's no thought or strategy behind it -- their success is a blind and retarded product of the times.

[Anonymous No.18838356]

>>18838300
>a monkey could throw darts and be a billionaire in buffet's day
>zoo keepers look after monkeys
>not understanding context

Take that IQ test yourself bud

[Anonymous No.18838368]

>>18838333
>more esoteric recs if you want.
Please do anon, I only come to this shithole to get reading reccomendations these days

>annual reports of energy companies and companies building smart grid solutions
Any particular ones?

[Anonymous No.18838376]

>>18837754
intractable jewish greed

[Anonymous No.18838395]

>>18837754
The obvious answer is he likes what he's doing. Notice how this is true for almost all billionaires, they could have easily stopped working when they were multi millionaires but they didn't. I don't actually believe you can get insanely rich doing something you hate, it needs to be something where you don't mind spending all your life doing it. I think it's the only way really.

[Anonymous No.18838446]

>>18837754
A lot of very successful people that make it to that age are afraid that they will die if they stop working. I mean, it is true that if you stop moving at that age, you won't live that long after you retire, unless you find new hobbies and interests. Only really boring people continue to work past 70 if they already have millions of dollars.

[Anonymous No.18838462]

>>18838376
>Warren Buffett is the world’s fourth richest man with a $88.6 billion net worth, thanks to his investment conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, which owns stakes in household names including Dairy Queen, American Airlines and Kraft Heinz. On Monday, he gave away $3.6 billion of it, continuing his quest to donate over 99% of his fortune to charity.

Such greed

[Anonymous No.18838522]

>>18838462
>actually believing the charity memes

[Anonymous No.18838528]

>>18837522
Y9u mean without his congressman dad to give him insider trading tips.

[Anonymous No.18838589]

>>18838522
>keeping your viewpoint despite contradictory evidence

Ok retard

[Anonymous No.18838638]

>>18838300
I had a friend from France that after reading about the famous chimp dart paper decided to put up a few thousand into two trading bots, one trading off actual Astrology (daily horoscopes text sentiment had a threshold for buy/sell). The other was numerology, based off converting headlines from Alex Jones' infowars into numbers. This was in 2015 and while they didn't beat the S&P500, they still turned a profit. At the time he said that one of the reasons was the bots traded too often and lost a lot in fees. Last I heard he was working on improved versions that would look at the aggregate over a week or two of data instead of deciding whether to trade every day.

[Anonymous No.18838672]

>>18838589
>imagine being so onions-pilled

[Anonymous No.18838717]

>>18837981
Oil's easy again, retard. Americans did the impossible and squeezed it from a rock.

[Anonymous No.18838756]

>>18837522

in his current state, he has broken the game anyway and no matter what he did, with that amount of capital and renown, he could be the mentioned monkey throwing darts, and people would follow like sheep and it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

so honestly I think no, chances of repeating this are little, because at some point your "knowledge" can be actually a big obstacle. you put everything in boxes, you think history will repeat itself and your mind gets more and more inflexible with more age, especially when your methods proved to be successful. that is, until they don't anymore.

so only if his success actually came from having a flexible adaptive mind, which was probably true in young age, seeing all possibilities, especially how different times were, he could repeat it. but times are totally fucking different now. dinosaurs get extinct when they keep dinosaur mentality after the age of dinosaurs.

[Anonymous No.18838758]

>>18838333
checked

[Anonymous No.18838760]

>>18838717
Russia and Saudi Arabia are BTFOing the American fracking industry rn

[Anonymous No.18838762]

>>18837522
If you compare the Berkshire Hathaway chart to just the US equities index, there actually is no difference. People think he is some investing wiz but he hasn't outperformed the market for years. The cycle is now changing from a disinflation cycle (we've been in one since 1982) to a quick bust, then to a reflation cycle where most equity prices will be eroded against inflation.

So no, he would not be able to repeat it. He just rode the boomer-bubble, like everyone else.

[Buffett sells insurance No.18838785]

>>18837522
THIS GUY SELLS INSURANCE.
I REPEAT - THIS GUY MADE HIS MONEY FROM GEICO AND BERKSHIRE RE (INSURANCE COMPANIES).
HE IS AN INSURANCE GUY. HE DOESN'T KNOW HOW TO BEAT THE MARKET.

[Anonymous No.18838792]

>>18838760

The Saudis are trying to BTFO every oil producer, Russia included. Just because the Saudis and Russians both behave like niggers doesn't mean they're on the same side. That said, the last time the Saudis tried to fuck up fracking, fracking emerged indescribably more resilient. Will it happen again? Maybe, maybe not. But shale tightening its belt is no longer an unknown variable

[Anonymous No.18838840]

>>18838462
if it's not greed for money, it's greed for power. ever wonder why these "generous" men donate this millions in exchange for seats on the board of directors?

[Anonymous No.18838841]

>>18838792
>you can't just put me out of business you n-nigger!

[Anonymous No.18838866]

>>18837754
Retiring is for cucks, slaves. If you love what you do, you do what you love doing. Retiring is for the mentally weak. A carrot in front of your nose to do shit you dont want to do.

[Anonymous No.18838874]

>>18838841

Shale is the last to go in the Saudi price war. All other producers will be forced to shutter before shale feels the pressure, and it will take months and months of pressure to make it happen.

[Anonymous No.18838922]

>>18837522
Did you see the precise moment Ackman shorted the market in March and called at the exact bottom to turn 26m into 2.6B? THAT guy is savant tier investor. Buffet is the "I'm almost 90 so I'm living proof that compound interest is a thing"

[Anonymous No.18838928]

>>18837754
Sulla in ancient Rome did this
only example I can think of

[Anonymous No.18838991]

>>18838158
Dumbest shit I've read on biz in months. Just end it. You'll never make it being this stupid.

[Anonymous No.18839004]

>>18838991
Refute it then you nigger. I already made it.

[Anonymous No.18839040]

>>18837522
only if the stock market just keeps on going up up up, he legit just goes long and sell puts

[Anonymous No.18839254]

>>18838922
>THAT guy is savant tier investor.
no
ackman did not see the fall and he was very lucky to get a buyer for his cds before he had to pay the monthly premium.

[Anonymous No.18839264]

>>18838762
So how exactly did he become worth 60 billion? What did he do differently?

[Anonymous No.18839269]

>>18837558
That happened

[Anonymous No.18839390]

>>18837754
Until the next one, the casual heir, enters the market and lose 50b to AI

[Anonymous No.18839413]

>>18837805
here it is jamal.
not everyone views "work is unending suffering and the goal is to do nothing and be a slug on the beach"
only your loser family thinks that and instilled those thoughts in your head by repetition and genetics.
do you ever wonder why your dad left your mom?

[Anonymous No.18839422]

>>18839413
wagie cope

[Anonymous No.18839587]

>>18837790
Because wrecking newfags is fun and never gets old, you wouldn’t understand

[Anonymous No.18839886]

>>18839587
Based Winner

[Anonymous No.18840166]

>>18837909
This. Why don't people understand that his success is a result of having a senator for a father?

[Anonymous No.18840462]

>>18837862
You luck your way into anything, thats why its luck

[Anonymous No.18840879]

>>18839254
Waa waa $2B profit in 1 month waa waa