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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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18618569 No.18618569 [Reply] [Original]

Own a small retail business, will the economy be as bad as it was in 2008?

What can we expect?

>> No.18618585

>>18618569
Devastation.
2008 was a walk in the park

>> No.18618609

>>18618569
Yeah. We’re looking at a 18% unemployment right now, thats expected to hit 30.
On the flip side, houses will get cheap as people are defaulting left and right on loans right now.

>> No.18618619

>>18618585
this

>> No.18618618

>>18618609
Once lockdowns are lifted those unemployment numbers will drop significantly.

>> No.18618636

>>18618569
Small businesses are kill

Our elites hate them

>> No.18618650

>>18618618
this. sorry faggot doomers. world isnt going to turn into one of your post apocalyptic videogames

>> No.18618819
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18618819

>>18618636
>>18618585
do explain, lockdowns are temporary the economy will rebound fast

>> No.18618838

>>18618569
No

>> No.18618849

>>18618819

anon, i...

>> No.18618875

>>18618849
do tell

>> No.18618882

>>18618569
No. That was a massive financial issue caused by the banks.

The economy was in good place before this virus. It's going to suffer as a result, but it's literally because of the virus and nothing else. Some say stocks were overvalued, but that's already been corrected. Imagine this happened in 2010. Then we'd be absolutely fucked

>> No.18618891

>>18618569
a nigger isnt president so no

>> No.18618934

>>18618819
> >>18618849
Economy is not an on/off switch.
To break your leg takes a second, to heal though...
Now if you severely wound your spinal cord, good luck.
Good luck.

>> No.18618954

>>18618618
>magically new jobs will jump out of thin air

>> No.18618968

>>18618934
What if it's a clown world

>> No.18618991

>>18618954
what, people can't get their old jobs back?

>> No.18619058

>>18618934
Perfect analogy right there. The time and cost of rehiring all these laid off is going to be a huge on the economy, and that is going to slow consumer demand. The economy is a giant perpetual motion machine that is literally never supposed to stop. If it's shutdown, it takes a long time to get all the parts running in sync again.

>> No.18619127

>>18619058
so nothing is broken, it's just slowed down. got it.

>> No.18619154

>>18618968
Oh we are in it absolutely.
So someone is going to have huge returns in the face of the misery of LOT of people.

>> No.18619175
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18619175

>>18619154
when will it be mine turn for returns

>> No.18619600

>>18618819
>>18618875
Non of these Depression meme retards can ever explain this. They just spout out shit they hear from Peter Schiff.

>>18618934
>the economy will never ever heal from this and will be like a broken spinal cord
Great analogy, retard.

>> No.18619635

>>18618650
>>18618991
>>18618618
I have a higher IQ than you

>> No.18619833

>>18619600
This shit is literally unprecedented, so really no one can be certain either way. Plus who knows, what if we restart and there is a second wave? What about next flu season? We’re in uncharted water for sure.

>> No.18619860

>>18618954
People will want to go to McDonalds and get a haircut again, wagie. Sorry your eternal NEET dreams aren't going to come to fruition

>> No.18619996

>>18618968
Then the President would be an incompetent TV host who unironically said he would pardon the Tiger King just for the "lol's" as the economy crumbles.

>> No.18620037
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18620037

>there are retards that still think this is about the virus
>there are retards that still think this is a recession/ depression
Don’t be retarded you faggots. (((They))) have been planning this for a long time and using the virus as a cover. Why do you think they are pushing for digital dollar and ID2020? This is an economic reset.

>> No.18620069

>>18618819

It’s a domino effect. You can’t just put an economy on pause because of all the consequences and ripples it has.

You also can’t just take out entire months’ worth of productive work from around the world without creating shortages and lower demand, which spills over into all sectors.

Governments can’t just make the money printer go BRRRRRRR without high inflation from the increased money supply. Go ahead and make minimum wage $15 because it’s going to have the buying power of $8 in two years, anyway.

The economic numbers right now look like another Great Depression is on the way. 15% official unemployment in the USA and as high as 40% in other countries are worse in some ways.

First world governments embarrassing themselves and vulnerable supply chains falling apart won’t help matters, either.

>> No.18620107
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18620107

>>18618569
the GDP figures aren't even in yet
but even when they come I have no idea what the fuck is going to happen

interest rates are fucking 0%

>> No.18620143

>>18618569
>as bad
this is still the 2008 crash but the global reserves have just pumped trillions into the economy to make you feel better

>> No.18620184
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18620184

>>18619833
There have been worse flu's that didn't cause a depression. Also the more people get infected and then healed the less likely it'll spread after they've been healed. A lot of people will still still do social distancing, hand washing, avoiding crowds etc and these policies will stay for the timing being as well.
People are already getting tired of the quarantine and republicucks would rather die for the steinsberg than to stay another month of quarantine for $1200.

>> No.18620200

>>18618618
>he thinks companies hire in less than a weeks time
>he doesnt know about the wait period after applying
>he doesnt know about the personality test after applying
>he doesnt know about the 3 month long period from applying to interviewing to being told theyre interested
>he doesnt know about the half month to month long background check period
>tl;dr he doesnt know about the 3+ month long period from going unemployed to employed

>> No.18620222

it will be much worse

>> No.18620245

>>18620184
you dont know what a flu is

>> No.18620286

>>18620184
DOW went from 1400 down to 900 during Spanish flu but it had been in a long downtrend due to WW1

either way

I doubt the flu made it better

>> No.18620302

>>18620184
>There have been worse flu's that didn't cause a depression.
Yea well this one did so I didn’t bother reading the rest of your post lmao, as I said, unprecedented.

>> No.18620344

>>18618569
I guess it all depends on how much money is gonna be pumped into the economy. I mean a 200% ratio for National Debt to GDP is feasible (look at Japan). So US alone could pump in another 18 trillion dollar to reach this level of national debt.... On the other hand japans debt is mainly held by its own people in the form of pension funds. US debts would be held by the FED...

>> No.18620391
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18620391

>>18620184

>> No.18620487

2008 lol
already is worst than 2008, dummy
this will be maybe worst than 1929, probably will be the worst crash in history.

>> No.18620525

>>18618882
No it wasn’t. Look into the corporate debt bubble. Stock prices are not an indicator of the strength of the economy.

>> No.18620562
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18620562

>Lockdowns are temporary

>> No.18620624

>>18620562
Taking the dollar off gold in 1971 was temporary.

>> No.18620842

>>18620245
I am not trying to meme "just a flu guys". Obviously it's worse than the everyday flu but when we compare it to the Spanish flu, which was undoubtedly worse, it's not as bad. Specially when we've had so much medical advancements over the years.

>>18620286
>>18620391
>one of the worse plagues after the black death
>-31% of stock market
Also I believe WW1 was actually good for the economy. War generally opens up a lot of jobs. So that's one upside during the Spanish flu.

For what's happening today, businesses are forced to shutdown for a month or two. It's not due to some world wide over-leveraged and business failures. It's a recession for sure but not a depression like the previous anon said. Before this event just remember we were at the best state of the economy in the history of the US.

>> No.18621437

>>18620842
what makes you think that the US economy is in its best state in its history?
The increase in stock prices since 2008 is attributable to extremely cheap money (which also encouraged buybacks) and tax cuts. So in what did the US economy improve?

>> No.18621514

>>18618618

>brother gets laid off
>gets paid more on unemployment
>has no urge to work for less
>decided he is going to school while on unemployment

No one is going back to work anytime soon. The government will extend benefits just like in 2008.

>> No.18621598

>>18621514
this is definitely a problem
here in Sweden we get 80% of our salary for 100 days then it's 70%, up to a certain cap

most of the guys I know that have been laid off have zero interest in going back to work
many of them actually make more right now by collecting unemployment and farming gold in Classic WoW

>> No.18621605

>>18618569
I was going to make a long post about how the economy could bounce back even stronger, but I keep getting caught up on the part about people not having money to spend.


The problem with the lockdown is that it has drained people's funds. We could bounce-back super strong, but I just don't see it happening because people literally won't have money to spend. You start opening up small businesses, etc. and people WANT to go back to life-as-usual, but they literally won't be able to afford it. So I'm not sure how to fix that. The shut down was such a tragic thing to force on people and I just cannot see how it was more beneficial than harmful. I know the doomer schizos screech about how it was necessary to combat the virus but it has potentially destroyed the middle class. I think I would have taken Sweden's solution over the shut-down 100% of the time.

>> No.18621628

>>18618569
Worse. It'll take years to recover from this.

I'm solely in ARPA and Asian shitcoins until 2021.

>> No.18621670

>>18618569
If this shit breaks out again in the fall, and a lot of stuff points to it returning in the fall, the economy will be a lot worse. Only positive is that saudis are going to lose a shitton of money which makes it a little more bearable I suppose.

>> No.18621802

>>18619600
>Great analogy, retard.
It actually is a great analogy, retard. Try taking any complex system, break it, and see how much more difficult it is to fix than it was to break.

Try taking just a few animals out of their environment and moving them to a new one. The entire ecosystem can be destroyed. Try breaking your arm and see that it can't be put back together quite the same. Try the same kind of thing with any complex emergent system and see that moving one thing out of place can destabilize the entire system.

>> No.18621894

>>18621437
>what makes you think that the US economy is in its best state in its history?
I said Was. Let's not try to straw-man this.
Before the crisis, average wage had been highest it's been for quite a while, unemployment was lowest it's ever been. In fact it was so good that people are protesting right now to go back to work.

>The increase in stock prices since 2008 is attributable to extremely cheap money (which also encouraged buybacks) and tax cuts. So in what did the US economy improve?
If you think the market was entirely just buy backs and low interest rates you might be delusional. The market might be more expensive because of those but it's not just floating on buy backs and low interest rates. These companies were generate profits and growing their businesses. It's not like they are breaking even and stocks kept going up because they kept buying their stocks back.

>> No.18622103

>>18618991

Not if the company no longer exists or if the lack of demand in the economy has made their job redundant.

>> No.18622688

>>18618569
The Fed is conducting unprecedented bailouts of everything and everyone. This will have the effect of smoothing out what would have been a recession worse than 2008.

In June/July, many temp workers will be back to work and the unemployment number will go down again. In the near future, we will be doing better.

The bigger question is, what about the people who can't find work or have no incentive to go back? It seems like some kind of basic income is on the horizon for individuals now that the door has finally been opened. We're already doing it for companies. This is going to create a massive psychological dependency on the government and its ability to print money to buy up bad assets going forward. Eventually, people will start asking why we're paying taxes? On the lower end of the income scale, some will ask themselves why they should bother to work at all?

They will never be able to reverse these policies and put them back into a box, so the result is that everyone is going to be a part of a centrally planned economy, similar to communism. This will have much worse consequences in the long run than anything we're facing today due to the coronavirus.

>> No.18622819

>>18620525

This is fucking huge and it’s looming as shit trickles up from the bottom. People have no money to spend, businesses start defaulting on their debts, etc. What people don’t want to admit is that stocks have been in a bubble since 2002ish with a lot of new wealth created solely on paper via stocks, which allows for companies to leverage the shit out of their illusionary value and borrow a ton of money that creditors will expect back. When the corporate debt goes bad it’ll be one of the major signs of Great Depression 2.0 and make 2008 look like nothing.

>> No.18622868

>>18622819
But when anon? when? Can you timeframe it?

>> No.18623451

Hopefully this gives me a chance actually buy stocks for cheap while the economy goes back to normal AND since all the retards are getting laid off and businesses shutting down there is going to be a huge spike in employers looking for workers which is a good way to turnover the boomer workforce into the jobless millennial zoomer generations

>> No.18623471

>>18618569
Technological deflation is the future
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFbKzt-uwE

>> No.18623486
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18623486

>>18622688
this^
it will become if you have to much , work to hard, have any success at all, you are the cause of the plight , we will start shitting on anyone worth a damn, completely wiping out and murdering anyone that provides any actual GDP. Technocrat oligarchy to ensue, your gonna need a license to have any job and it will be taxed heavily.

>> No.18623626

>>18623471
I like these video, its mostly boiler plate stuff, above average insight than a normal 20 yr old would have. I am starting to think the guy posting these videos to 4chan is the guy that makes the videos though.

This link is for the Hypocrite Twins. Dude plays republican , democrat sides and a outside 3rd person (an alien) to express the different views. I don't think he realizes he is basically alt right. He trys to make it funny, its mostly luke warm kind of dry humor but nonetheless I enjoy his videos for its information content.

https://www.youtube.com/user/alecsobel

>> No.18623815

>>18620037
Lol they have no control its an illusion and this virus is speeding up their demise

>> No.18624085

best state of economy... drowning in debt.
i mean just look at the average american was one paycheck away from not paying mortgage or any bills

>> No.18624158
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18624158

>>18618569
If you have all of your money in crypto, you will be rich. If you're already rich, but have all of your assets in crypto or precious metals, you will be okay. If you have no money in either of these, you will be royally fucked.

>> No.18624208
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18624208

>>18621605
((they)) have ALWAYS hated the middle class..

makes you wonder doesn't it