US cases are not plateauing.

[Anonymous No.18284657]

Red monday confirmed. US cases are not plateauing. The shitty testing that was rolled late is not keeping up with the cases. Based on the data, the backlog is much bigger than it was when Coronavirus Taskforce annouced that they "will be working through a backlog of tests over the next 24-48 hours" on March 18th.

Shit's about to hit the fan when testing capacity is increased again and people start to see large growth in the daily cases again. And looking at today's partial data, it's possible it starts today. I did some math and turns out today we will probably go past 40K daily cases. NYS will probably get around 15K new cases, implying +50% growth in daily cases compared to yesterday.

[Anonymous No.18284792]

>>18284657
>US cases are not plateauing.

Well that should be obvious with how moronically late most of the southern states were on issuing stay-at-home orders. They're gonna be fucked in two weeks

[Anonymous No.18284795]

bump

[Anonymous No.18284797]

>>18284657
How new are you?

[Anonymous No.18284841]

>bat coof
Business + finance.

[Anonymous No.18284861]

>>18284657
>nearly 300 000
Shit. I was just laughing about 200 000 being passed, and now it's up by nearly 50%? I know it's fast, and exponents are nothing to kid with, but I expected it would've slowed down with all the alleged measures that have been allegedly taken.

[Anonymous No.18285008]

>>18284657
>Number of corona cases exponentially doubling
>No way for testing to keep up
>Unemployment highest in US history
SPY 300c 4/9

[Anonymous No.18285041]

>>18284861
The US has not been taking serious measures outside California and New York. You here a lot of grumbling about that from the President, but it's not because the whole country is in lock down. It's because those two states are two of the biggest economic power-houses for the country. Many states haven't even begun to take this shit seriously.

And without closed borders between states, this shit will just cycle once it starts dying down in other states. it'll come back to New York again. We'll have another shut down again. Italy and China at least knew to restrict travel within the country.

[Anonymous No.18285042]

>>18285008
I hope to God they've got a copy or descendant of War Plan White or GARDEN PLOT at hand, or something.

[Anonymous No.18285115]

What part of 100k - 200k deaths do you not understand? Priced in.

[Anonymous No.18285137]

>>18285115
100-200k deaths IF the US actually buckles down with stay at home orders. These numbers are coming from Fauci who was on CNN saying he has no idea why every state isn't issuing stay at home orders. We're probably on track to hit 500k deaths conservatively.

[Anonymous No.18285169]

>>18285137
Those models were based on NYC. We’re 3.5 million people ride the subway every day.

No other US city is even close to a fraction of that amount of human density and contact.

[Anonymous No.18285224]

>>18285115
Idiots that can't math can't understand priced in.

[Anonymous No.18285252]

>>18285169
they're not literally copying new york and extrapolating for the full population, they're modeling state-by-state density and adjusting the R0 value accordingly. The data of value that they're mainly using from NY is not so much about the spread but about mortality rates for different demographics. No modeler worth their salt would do any less.

[Anonymous No.18285348]

>>18285137
>>18285252
this

get a load of this guy

[Anonymous No.18285352]

>>18285252
Bullshit they literally picked a random number

[Anonymous No.18285372]

>>18284657
you idiots have no idea what any of this means

[Anonymous No.18285381]

>>18285252
Lol wrong. They literally said since this is where they have the most data it’s what’s being input into the models. Of course they are adjusting for population numbers but it’s impossible to adjust for DENSITY and HUMAN CONTACT. Which NY has the worse of any US city.

[Anonymous No.18285432]

>>18285381
they literally have density data as well as statistics on transit use in every state, what are you on about

[Anonymous No.18285447]

Beaches just reopened here in Georgia. We're so fucked.

[Anonymous No.18285453]

>>18285381
Why would it be impossible to adjust for density and human contact? That seems pretty easy to model out.

[Anonymous No.18285454]

>>18285381
they're only testing people who are sick
of course they're getting a lot of numbers

Statistics: how to fool yourself and others numbers

country pop = 350 million
number of people tested= 250k
mostly in areas where the most people are sick because of reasons
let that sink in. the numbers mean fuck all

[Anonymous No.18285475]

>>18285432
True but how do you factor that into the spread? They are using that data un modified. They literally said this in the presser. They said the entire model is based on NYC.

[Anonymous No.18285510]

>>18285453
Ok do it. How do you mathematically turn a density into a spread factor that accurately forecasts? They can’t because all the data is from NY. There is no control group or anything to really compare it to. You don’t know the factor

[Anonymous No.18285525]

>>18285454
Exactly. So the 200K prediction of deaths is meaninglessness

[Anonymous No.18285542]

>>18285475
The R0 is well known, so you don't actually need the data from NYC for spread - it really wouldn't make sense. You could model every district's population density with agents and have them move around based on transit statistics. You can also simulate these agents cross borders. Basically when two agents get within 6 feet of eachother, you roll dice based on whether one is infected and using the R0 value. This will give an idea of spread. Then you use mortality numbers from NYC to figure out who dies.

[Anonymous No.18285553]

>>18285041
>Italy and China at least knew to restrict travel within the country.
Are you retarded?
China let 5 million escape Wuhan and it spread to every part of the country and then the world.

[Anonymous No.18285559]

>>18285542
Ya but NY is a bad example. Which is were the data is coming from for the model. NY city is the worst cast scenario place.

[Anonymous No.18285560]

>>18285510
>assume that for every increase in density of 10 people per mile, the number of contact events a person will have per day increases by 1
there, done.

[Anonymous No.18285599]

>>18285560
Ok but you just made that up. They aren’t making it up. They are only using the data from NY. That’s my point. They are using the spread. Infection. Death rate. Everything from NY and extrapolating it across the US. It’s not an argument. They said this exactly in the presser.

When asked well isn’t NY city worst case and it may not be that bad.

They answered Yes however we only have data from NY so that’s what we’re using.

[Anonymous No.18285606]

>>18285559
its the worst case scenario place for *spread* but this doesn't say much about mortality - mortality should be the same across the board for now. It'll change when people can't get ICU beds but NYC isn't quite there yet. A 250 lb man with diabetes getting the virus in NYC is just about as likely to die as a 250 lb man with diabetes getting the virus in West Virginia.

[Anonymous No.18285613]

>>18285560
>it's the meteic system bro, duhhhhhhhhhh

[Anonymous No.18285632]

>>18285606

True but there are probably less hospital beds per capita in NY than the rest of the country

[Anonymous No.18285673]

>>18285599
Sure but we're talking about building a model. You just say 'for the reduction of X in density there will be on average Y less contact events per person per day in an area'. What those exact numbers are has to be determined later, but you can still use it to model out scenarios based on different ratios. Then once you get a few data points you start improving the accuracy of your ratios.
I'm just saying this is hardly impossible to model out.

[Anonymous No.18286581]

all these numbers & models are virtually meaningless without widely-available, public testing

[Anonymous No.18286814]

>>18284657
daily reminder herd immunity is the only way to stop it. it's probably better to open the economy back up and suffer the loss of life now than a prolonged shutdown that could lead to a great depression scenario in which millions more will die.

[Anonymous No.18287607]

>>18286814
there is no significant loss of life from covid 19. definitely not enough to justify closing down everything.

[Anonymous No.18287965]

>>18286814
I'd be worried about that kind of gamble causing huge animosity which could very well lead protests and more chaos once the disease has moved out of the way and people dare to gather again.
The death of someone you know is often a tragedy strong enough to cause the disillusionment and radicalization of people. I don't think that kind of move would end well, seeing how many memes and shitty attitudes have been spawned by even light suggestions about trying to return to "normal" during these times.
And it's not like you can reason with an angry mob, no matter how right you might be. It's like stepping out in front of a speeding truck. The fact that you've got the green-for-go on your side doesn't save you from being splattered.

[Anonymous No.18288078]

>>18284657
New York state has 19.5 million people, NYC has 8.5.

New York State has 114k cases and NYC has 63k

Today there was an all time high rate of death, ICU admissions and intubations. Cuomo, the governor, keeps talking about the "apex" and how the fight at the very peak is what they have to prepare for, because if they are overwhelmed they cant provide any care and rapid death follows.

He suggests the apex is within the next 6-8 days, or 14 days for the long charts.

0.5% of New York has been infected, the rates are only increasing and he thinks the apex is next week. No. Get ready for a bumpy fucking ride.

[Anonymous No.18288103]

>>18286814
Youre a complete retard and millions of people already are going to die. I hope youre one of them.

[Anonymous No.18288182]

>>18284657
>US cases are not plateauin
>not mid April yet.

[Anonymous No.18288215]

>>18288182
Zognalds best case scenario is 200k die.

[Anonymous No.18288237]

>>18288182
Ontario, Canada's best case scenario is 200k die and its one province in a country of 37 million. Best case scenario. You people have no idea how bad this is going to be.

[Anonymous No.18288278]

Had to take a call during the speech so missed half of it. Any big news out of it?

[Anonymous No.18288506]

>>18288103
those are rookie numbers and they don't mean diddly squat

[Anonymous No.18288551]

D I D D L Y

S Q U A T

[Anonymous No.18288671]

>>18288103
>CLOSE THE WORLD TO SAVE LIVES!
>if you disagree with the opinion CNN gave me I want you to die
This is your brain on leftism.

[Mr. Reaper No.18288697]

I don't actually care about dead people, but what does the progression of cases mean for stonks?

If US states still have no lockdown orders, the real shit ought to hit the fan in 3-4 weeks, right? That's assuming they lock down within the next 10d, then 2w for people to get sick and another week for family members to also get sick. That would be 10x - 20x the 300k cases we have right now, so 3-6m diseased and 150k - 300k dead.

Would that cause an even bigger bear market on WS?

[Anonymous No.18289988]

>>18288237
Ontario's worst case is 15k dead tho

[Anonymous No.18290108]

Charts don't mean shit because universal testing isn't being done. Increases or decreases in the case count just mean more or less testing is being done.

[Anonymous No.18290248]

>>18285041
STAY HOME. DO NOT WORK. THE GOVERNMENT WILL PROVIDE.

[Anonymous No.18290262]

>>18285115
Deaths would have to double for the next 5 weeks. Ain't happening.

[Anonymous No.18290270]

[Anonymous No.18290275]

>>18285137
Fucking retard. Go masturbate to CNN

[Anonymous No.18290300]

>>18284657
how about testing only people who get to the hospital with their symptoms ?
seems like most countries do it, you would see way lower numbers that way
or how about just outright lying that works too for a few doesn't it *wink wink*

[Anonymous No.18290321]

>>18284861
If this was serious we'd have 500k cases today, 300k proves that we're like 2 weeks out from this being 100% over. It was never severe to begin with tho so whatevs

[Anonymous No.18290581]

>>18290248
the government literally stockpiles taxpayer money, why shouldn't they provide in moments like these? do you think this fraud of an economy and these artificial gains generated by stock buybacks and massive corporate debt justifies people dying? the economy should work for people

[Anonymous No.18290602]

>>18288237
Wut? Best case 3k worst case 12k

[Anonymous No.18290604]

>>18284657
Dead Americans means a better world

[Anonymous No.18290632]

>>18284657
This is very bullish for the market. Green Monday, screenshot this.

[Anonymous No.18290894]

>>18290632
Wrong!

[Anonymous No.18290945]

>>18287965
wow ok bedroom theorist geez shut the fuck up get sick, infect others. simple as mate. stupid mericans cant buckle up their pants and just do something no they gotta sprinkle some starbucks a dash of chipotle owaaa yeas a little from the african community ooohh ow wow yea pina colada and latin named mokachitos