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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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18186699 No.18186699[DELETED]  [Reply] [Original]

I follow oil economy, politics and news for a while and know my way around a bit.
There are big opportunities with oil at the moment but also great risks.
Please ask away if you are interested.

>> No.18186702

>>18186699
thats a man

>> No.18186726

>>18186702
I wouldn't care desu

>> No.18186728

>>18186699
thats a man

>> No.18186771

>>18186728
>>18186726

>> No.18186797
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18186797

what do i buy tomorrow to double my money this month

>> No.18186810

crackers love flatasses because it reminds them of the ladyboys from thailand

>> No.18186824

>>18186797
>ask your questions about oil

Will only speak oil related in this thread. Short oil until it drops to the $5-$10 dollar range.

>> No.18186832

>>18186699
which oil stock do you have?

>> No.18186839

>>18186810
this

>> No.18186840

Do you recommend buying USO? Is now a good price or should I wait a bit more. How long do you think this price war will last?

>> No.18186879

Is it the RuSsIaNs or JeWs who are making oil low? Oil maxis need to die.

>> No.18186971

>>18186832
None in the moment. Shorted and got out a bit too early. Now I wait for prices to drop a bit more and then go long for ~1 year.
Use contracts or ETFs (ETCs) but be aware of the roll-over cost

>>18186840
seems to follow the oil price pretty accurately.
I can't look into the future but I am waiting for lower prices. They might drop close to $0 when they start paying companies to take the oil.
The price war just started, it will last a few weeks but difficult to predict. Many factors included (like Russia trying to push US out, cash reserves of Iran, actual oil price / storage cost / production cost in different areas / demand due to covid-19

>> No.18186991

>>18186879
There are likely multiple agendas at play. Likely that russia wants to hurt US, Saudi Arabia wants to screw Russia

>> No.18187113

>>18186699
What are the US oil companies most likely to survive this oil Jihad.

>> No.18187125

>>18186824
How do I short?

>> No.18187200

How oil tanker stock will perform?

>> No.18187222

>>18187125
futures contracts (long term) or inverse ETCs (short term)

>>18187113
The large cap ones will be fine. Get out of small cap ones. Also fracking is dead (very expensive, only maintained for political indepencence. But not worth it in times of cheap oil)

>> No.18187252

>>18187200
It will sink once it passes Hudson River, due to Ocelot stealing the Ray prototype

>> No.18187266

Did I miss the bottom?

>> No.18187313

>>18186810
go buy some scratchoffs and beat your kid, nigger

>> No.18187338

>>18187266
No, we are unironically just getting started.
If OPEC+ come together and agree on a production reduction agreement, maybe triggered by Covid-19 demand crisis, then we will go back up. But this probably takes a while until the parties get desparate (Russia due to high manufacturing prices, Iran / Saudi Arabia due to running out of cash)

>> No.18187345

>>18186702
That’s a literal slave.

>> No.18187363

>>18186699
>wearing pants

>> No.18187439

>>18186699
what do you think about 3x leveraged etfs long for the price rebound?

>> No.18187474

>>18186699
How fucked am I bag holding XOM at ~39? How fucked am I bag holding MRO at ~3.28

>> No.18187485

>>18187439
never go leveraged long. This will likely be a slow rebound and roll-over & decay will RIP you

>> No.18187491

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/03/23/time-to-buy-stuff/

he recomends buying tanker stocks


$TNK $STNG $FRO $NAT DHT
DHT, EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK

>> No.18187493

>>18187338
Is it better to buy oil or oil companies when the time is right?

>> No.18187500

>>18186971
>Now I wait for prices to drop a bit more
$40 a barrel oil in a month

>> No.18187514

>>18186699
Wanna oildrill this specimen.

>> No.18187538

>>18187500
What makes u say that friend o

>> No.18187541

>>18187491
That would have been a good move, about two or three weeks ago.

>> No.18187564

>>18187474
>XOM
you'll be fine. Will likely go down short term but will go above current price in the long term. Keep it and be happy about the great dividents of most big oil companies

>MRO
not too familiar with, apologies. But small cap oil companies are at risk during this price war

>> No.18187584

>>18187541
that guy posterd about this in 19 march

>> No.18187588

>>18186699
What is a good American oil major or other large company with a very small presence in north america, and not very devoted to exploration? I'm looking for a large american company that will recover the fastest because its focused on extraction, transportation, and refining oil from the cheapest places like ME, india, russia, south america etc. and not focused on exploration, offshore, fracking, expensive low return shit like that. any recommendations? was looking at FTI(I know its not american), but it has large exploration and subsea segments which im not thrilled about.

>> No.18187595
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18187595

>>18187363
THIS

>> No.18187603

>>18186699
What about refiners and other shovel and pick plays?

>> No.18187613

>>18187493
Companies are easier to buy / hold but be vary of other factors affecting company stocks (management, etc.)
Generally they are fairly closely related though. Stay away from small cap oil companies until the dust settles

>> No.18187617

>>18186699
recent investor dumped about 5k into exxon @ 50$ im i going to make it i plan to hold it for 30 years my question is should i dump more of invest in to the RDSA-B I FILL like i should control my shot here and invest in exxon only

>> No.18187639

Why should I believe you?

>> No.18187657

>>18187588
>south america
>cheap oil

Nope, horrible sludgy stuff which takes a lot of refining.

>> No.18187679

>>18186699
what do you think about the play to buy oil tankers for the revenue they will generate by storing excess crude for a year while this corona thing blows over?

>> No.18187692

>>18187613
Would you recommend state owned companies overseas that took a hit in their stocks thanks to everything?

>> No.18187697

>>18187564
Thank you for your confirming my biases.

If XOM div yield gets above 11% again IDGAF how bad the oil war looks I am going to buy that mother fucker so good and hard my dick will cum oil

>> No.18187708

>>18187617
>>18187564

>>18187639
you can always google stuff to confirm once you heard about it. Always DYOR. Why would you blindly believe an autist on /biz/?

>> No.18187757

I've read Russia and Saudi Arabia saying how they enough reserves to go on like this for years. Is that just tough talk to get the other nation to fold?

>> No.18187782

>>18187679
Not sure about the tankers, heard about it but no expert. Storage will be short very soon though, so you might be right.

>>18187692
I'd probably be careful with any oil companies (also refineries, etc.) at the moment. This price war, together with reduced demand for unknown amount of time might well re-shape the whole market. Big players will likely be fine long term though

>> No.18187798

Buy ConocoPhillips?

>> No.18187804

>>18187657
yeah good point catch. count india out too. but your missing my point. at least a partial goal or a secondary benefit of the so called price war, as far as the instigators are concerned, it driving US and canadian producers out of business. I believe my goal of finding companies focused on maintaining low cost oil fields, transportation, refining and petrochemicals, instead of new technologies, exploration, and maintaining high cost oil fields, will be profitable if such a company even exists.

>> No.18187805

>>18187757
They can but it will literally destroy Saudi Arabia as a nation (they do a lot of spending) and deplete Russia's sovereign wealth fund and hurt their currency.

>> No.18187829

>>18187757
4D chess going on, so all you will find are probs opinions.
Fact is Saudi Arabia is very dependent on their income from oil. Not sure how long they can keep the prices low, but might be months or even a year... maybe

>> No.18187853

>>18187757
The Saudis extraction costs in about $25. The Russians are at $300 but their foreign exchange reserves are very small, the rouble is a shitwipe and their financial sector is a semi0nationalsied wreck.

With no money coming in from oil and gas and tax revenues about to collapse the Russians are quite fucked.

>> No.18187856

>>18187804
By nature oil companies MUST invest in exploration and R&D to make profits and keep market share. Wells do run dry and it happens pretty quick in terms of their invested amount vs profitability. Be careful investing in ones that are too conservative with exploration and development. Healthy CapEx is good for an oil company.

>> No.18187873

What should I short?

>> No.18187899

>>18187757
OPEC nations are already loudly complaining about the lack of revenue. Russia is pissing away money doing this too.
This will be over by summer.

>> No.18187914
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18187914

>>18186699
How about these oil companies stop burning off the natural gas and start selling it? Look at Cabot oil, $COG.

>> No.18187937

>>18187914
Gee wow what an idea I wonder why they havent thought of that

>> No.18187966

>>18186699
Will SHLX be good to hold in the long term also you think dividends will get cut?

>> No.18187986

>>18187856
yeah but exploration is fucked. the saudis and russians know where their oil is already.

>> No.18188005

>>18187899
>This will be over by summer.

The lack of demand will be here until the virus is gone.

>> No.18188018

>>18186810
>Niggers fetishize morbid obesity

>> No.18188031

>>18186699
Why would the U.S. want to invade Venezuela to prop up the oil prices?

>> No.18188041

>>18186699
What's up with Kosmos Energy

>> No.18188075

>>18187986
So? They can't keep prices this low long enough to put oil majors out of business. Oil majors could put themselves out of business, however, if they fail to maintain their core business and market share. Think long term my friend.

>> No.18188109

>>18188005
I doubt that. Shipping never stopped completely plus it will be ramping up again withing two months and construction/mining isn't slowing down despite all of this.
Cars don't consume as much oil as you think and even then people are still going to be driving more than they are now into the summer.

>> No.18188111

>>18188031
If the US occupied Venezuela in the medium/long term oil prices would go down. Venezuelan extraction is in a terrible mess, production has been declining for years.

>> No.18188137 [DELETED] 

>>18187439
I already lost most of my gains by not sell my inverse ETF, DWT when it hit that spike on march 18th, and now DWT doesn't seem to be tracking the market as well for whatever reason.

Do you think for oil, futures are the best way to trade? I have always used ETFs but I would like to start using more options or futures, however the risks has kept me on the sidelines so far

>> No.18188144

>>18187338
>No, we are unironically just getting started.
No, we're not.
Everything you posted sounds like you learned everything you know about the oil industry came from one poorly written article on MSNBC, by a reporter who's as clueless about the industry and the situation as you are.
But you'll keep giving investment advice anyway.

Now respond that you're an oil company executive who makes 10 billion a year and fucks instagram models on your luxury yacht. That might be more amusing than your larping as an investor. Probably not, but what the hell, we're all stuck at home and bored, give it a shot.

>> No.18188176

>>18188111
Whats the relation of the U.S. dollar to oil? Got any good documentaries I can watch to understand USD/OIL from 1971 onward?

>> No.18188186
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18188186

>>18188041
>Long on KOSMOS

Also OP, What are your thoughts on dumping a grand into USO right now?

>> No.18188229

>>18188186
>USO
Why the fuck would you want someone else to pick your oil companies for you? Are you retarded?

>> No.18188255 [DELETED] 

>>18187485
I already lost most of my gains by not selling, DWT when it hit that spike on march 18th, and now DWT doesn't seem to be tracking the market as well for whatever reason.

Do you think for oil, futures are the best way to trade? I have always used ETFs but I would like to start using more options or futures, however the risks has kept me on the sidelines so far

>> No.18188389

>>18186699
Do you think many or any Canadian companies will survive this shit, given the current environment? Thoughts on Suncor or Canadian Natural Resources? Do you think we'll really see $5 oil?

>> No.18188428

>>18188144
For the most part, the anon is correct about the oil industry. We are seeing tremendous supply glut thanks to the Saudi Arabian-Russian price war that adds to a glut from the zombie E&P companies in the shale fields. Compounding this problem is the demand shock from Covid-19 whose effects perhaps are being short counted thanks to the tremendous central bank response.

It seems to me that demand will recover far more slowly than anticipated and the easy money might extend the lives of the zombies in the shale fields. As you may have read, crude oil in Canada was priced at $5/bbl just a few days ago. These companies are pumping what they can just to pay the interest on debt.

I'm waiting for one final washout before buying more. During the washout, a lot of the unprofitable shale field drillers will go bust and their assets will get picked up by stronger players: oil majors and well-run, private companies. We'll then see a general rise in crude oil prices and better profitability. I'm looking to buy shares of XOM and CVX when the dust clears. If it gets cheap enough, I would also consider buying shares of SLB, if it drops to $10 or so, for potentially bigger gains but greater volatility.

>> No.18188844
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18188844

>>18188428
Did I screw up not waiting for the real dip?

>> No.18188860

>>18186699
what are oil companies doing to diversify. what you gonna do about the decrease in oil demand

>> No.18188870

>>18186699
chekced

Whats funny is this cunt is probably underage

>> No.18188913

>>18188860
BP pledged to go carbon neutral by 2050, and RDS has been focusing on chemical and gas alternatives, Exxon has been throwing money into fuel cells too.