>>18168412
Yes, this is true. No one really thinks Italy has a 10% IFR, even if health system collapse has doubled what the IFR would have been otherwise.
The problem is that some people who want to minimize this for political purposes are claiming insane numbers of uncounted cases.
>"Community spread has been going on since December, US cases are 5 million."
No retards. Community spread was confirmed about 2-4 incubation periods ago in a handful of areas. It just so happens that it is all those areas where hospitals are overwhelmed now.
Some Stanford idiots who do intro medical stats, not infection specialists, put out an op ed that literally said "most of the NBA was tested, and 1% have it, so we assume 1% of everyone in cities with NBA teams has it, that means x million cases and a fatality rate way below flu." Hyper retarded and would fail high school stats, right? But it ran in the WSJ and is being cited as a reason to lift everything.
Flu averaged 94 deaths a day last season. We have 525, most from a city of just 8 million. If you do the same sort of napkin math that Ioniadass gets his dick sucked for on that, you're eating 10,000 deaths a day eventually.
Fact is, no one knows how bad we will get. We need random testing of the public to determine true IFR.
I have heard for weeks how massively expanding testing will drop fatality rates any day now, and it hasn't materialized. If your model keeps not predicting reality, you have to change it.
525 deaths last night, bet 600+ tonight. We will be at a thousand a day soon and it's only matured in two cities so far.