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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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18138636 No.18138636 [Reply] [Original]

Honest predictions for Monday's stock market? Trump basically confirmed we won't go back to work after Easter. Stocks were in the bull trap that had yet to crumble. We are going red, but just how red?

Honestly?
-16% on S&P 500
-14% on DAX
-14% on FTSE 100
-12% on NIKKEI 225
-5% on HANG SENG

>> No.18138678
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18138678

>>18138636

>> No.18138709

>>18138636
not so sure we will go red, in the graphs that are circulating where current crash is compared with 1929 crash, there was an almost 50% retracement of the initial crash and the retracement occurred over a longer time period than the initial crash.
To put it simple the dead cat may bounce higher and for a longer time.

>> No.18138719

>>18138636
What about DOW?
DAX will be below 8K imo.

>> No.18138766

>>18138636
Idk but im sure regreting buying several calls to take advantage of this crab market. Also regret selling one of my puts that could've been more profitable had i held simply because of the half day pump.

>> No.18138774

I’ve been iffy on every day so far but I believe, deep in my soul, that Monday will be a bloodbath. I have very little skin in the game but Monday is looking bad

>> No.18138798

>>18138719
If DOW goes below 19500 ill be a very happy man. Might actually cash in decently on my puts

>> No.18138806

>>18138774
why is it looking bad anon

>> No.18138808

>>18138709
most of the initial rise wasn't attributed to the 2.2 trillion trumpbux, it was attributed to reopening the economy soon, which he had basically denied in the press conference tonight
it's the biggest sell signal we had so far, i doubt it will be ignored even if some institutional investors are angry that they bought into a bull trap in order to sell it a few days later

>> No.18138833

>>18138636
should i put everything on SQQQ

>> No.18138847
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18138847

>> No.18138869

>>18138636
Here is my 100% honest game plan:

1. Market buy the open
2. Sell for a 3% gain

the end

>> No.18138875

>>18138808
The only reason I think it will go up is because this place is all bobos and every retard thinks we are going to crash. It's like BTC at $3,200 and capslockanon saying we were going to hit $1,400

>> No.18138886

>>18138806
Grim news about the quarantine length, initial “the market is recovering” euphoria has passed, shitty Friday. There’s not a lot of optimism to fuel Monday, and it feels like, at least, a -10% day. I could be wrong but I will probably be selling half my stock in premarket (I already regret not selling today). Luckily I’ll still be profitable and I have a few puts to cover my ass.

>> No.18138900

>>18138869
Mine is
>sell SPY puts at hopefully a small profit
>buy 2021-22 USO calls

>> No.18138965
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18138965

>>18138875
Normie first time „investors” are still talking about buying the dip so we’re obviously going further down
Pic rel

>> No.18139010

>>18138886
you know the market never wants to hold under uncertanty so it always sells on Friday

>> No.18139063

>>18138965
That’s a MAN

>> No.18139162

>>18138965
Biz is always wrong though. Nearly every single time. We may double bottom but I don't think it will go lower for another 200 days once a recession is technically confirmed.

>> No.18139190

>>18139162
So why would you invest now? You plan to sell before those 200 days?

>> No.18139218

>>18139010
There always a selloff at the end, yeah, but this dump and slump followed a four day seemingly-unstoppable pump. IMO doesnt bode well for Monday

>> No.18139252

>>18139190
Because it's foolish to time the bottom and I can margin 35% on a total stock market index like VTI, pay 2.00% margin interest, and only be liq'd if the portfolio drops 62% (which can't happen if you assume 60% from ATH is the hard bottom).

>> No.18139270

>>18138806
the curve isn't flattening anon, it's not flattening

>> No.18139281

>>18139252
Everyone who invests now is timing the bottom in some sense. If we see another 30% drop (DOW 15k or something like that) might take years to regain those gains. I wouldn’t be so cocky about averaging buy-in, it will definitely sting hard, punishment for being lazy and not properly seeing the trends here

>> No.18139289

>>18138636
All looks good to me

>> No.18139334

>>18138965
My janitor last week was talking about going all in and buying the dip basically.

>> No.18139356

>>18138900
USO will not go above $10 in that time and will never go above $20 ever again. Look at their historical charts and research contango, brainlet.

>> No.18139371

>>18138636

Not even trying to predict the market right now.

Small business...dunno. There's provisions for small business to apply for and get millions in emergency loans to cover payroll and expenses...and in 3 months, when they come due (with no interest), all you have to do is pay back whatever you didn't use. Whatever you used, you keep, it's forgiven.

Big business is (mostly) gonna get fat and happy from this. They're being paid off to not do massive stock buybacks.

It's things like that, that make it impossible to predict the short term. How many companies will access this, and pay workers to stay home? Dunno.

And, until the price war on oil ends, who the fuck knows.

>> No.18139490

The only thing I think we can count on is a statisically significant percentage of unemployed stimulus recipients spending about a third of the free money on cannabis

>> No.18139546

>>18139281
Kek, if you buy at the double bottom it's still -35% from ATH. That's a deal even if you're waiting for a few years. Margin interest is only 2.00%, it's free net of inflation.

Don't be capslockanon.

>> No.18139584

>>18139546
Usually takes more about a year to reach bottom, the absolute bottom. It’s been what, a month? If you can hold out for that long then go for it. Mind the hyperinflation risk aswell, might dump the stock even more this crash than usually, you never know

>> No.18139588
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18139588

>>18138636
Circuit breakers within first hour.
They will try to do something Sunday night in an attempt to prevent a complete disaster. Maybe they'll roll out Jerome or the Menooooch for some big announcement. But it will have minimal effect at this point.

>> No.18139624

>>18139356
Is it going to keep shitting the bed?

>> No.18139656

Now that I’m caught up on this whole possession/abolishment of the Fed fiasco, does that tend towards bullish? Not that I’ll try to time anything, I just wonder

>> No.18139679

>>18139624
I honestly think it could be delisted in the future as it does not track oil price swings at all. What you want is XOP but that as well as the entire american oil sector is in danger right now.

>> No.18139699

>>18139656
P R I C E D I N

>> No.18139721

>>18139584
>Usually takes more about a year to reach bottom, the absolute bottom.
"Usually" means fuck all right now. We're in the weeds here, comparing this to the past might be fun to while away the quarantine hours, but it's pointless.
>hyperinflation
Oh, you're clueless. Nevermind.

>> No.18141276

>>18139656
Idk but i went a little to big on my calls. Would have been nice to know this in the morning, wouldnt have bought any calls or puts and probably had sell my stock option positions off.

>> No.18141299

>>18138678
is that a man?

>> No.18141319

>>18141111

>> No.18141842

>>18138636

DOW falls 50%. Global economy collapses due to communist Chinese bioweapon. Our timeline re-merges with the Fallout timeline, five decades ahead of schedule.