/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.17990776]

Let's make a list of companies/industries which are going to get absolutely JUSTed in the next 12-18 months.
-hotels - people aren't going to go for vacations
-fast food corporations - no one is going to eat out
-airlines - same as hotels
-boeing - because airlines get JUSTed
-amazon - people have less money to spend on low quality shit from china because they lost their jobs
-uber - people aren't going to go out as much
-apple - baristas will lose their jobs and won't be able to buy $2000 iphone

[Anonymous No.17990888]

Banks when overleveraged companies go bankrupt. Get ready to buy some in a month when they are trading 5 times whatever those earnings might be.

[Anonymous No.17990957]

>>17990776
TFW I live in an Extended Stay America hotel because it's marginally cheaper than a studio/1br and it's furnished, no electricity, water or internet bills and I get free toiletries, muffins and housekeeping.

[Anonymous No.17990973]

>>17990957
Let me guess: san francisco?

[Anonymous No.17990982]

>>17990973
Austin

[Anonymous No.17990993]

>>17990776
Tesla will get obliterated

[Anonymous No.17990996]

Amazon is going to outperform because everyone wants their teddies delivered to them without having to risk going outside. Brick and mortar retail is fucked though.

[Anonymous No.17991002]

Uber and fast food will deliver and I think will do OK.

[Anonymous No.17991007]

>>17990996
*tendies fuck this gay ass keyboard

[Anonymous No.17991017]

>>17990973
Also, I meant to say it's marginally more expensive. Only about $150/mo more for the hotel.

[Anonymous No.17991035]

>>17990993
Tesla is going to get them gubmit bux.

[Anonymous No.17991037]

>>17990996
Might get hit, shit can transmit off cardboard for ~24hrs.

[Anonymous No.17991135]

>>17990776
My favorite for the Deathlist was/is Disney, but Pic Related no longer has a source of income afaik. Like, none. They are down 50% over the last month, but bounced backabit because Liberty Media (own about 1/3) paid back a loan to stop PANIC. Why, I don't know. If they have an upside, its not one visible to me anytime soon, and a shitload of income already booked is gonna be subject of refund claims (Ticketmaster, etc)

[Anonymous No.17991148]

>>17990996
exactly this

adding to list:
all computer technology companies!

digitalisation is NEEDED now for everything. as people recognise how amazing it is to work from home and learn from home (even teachers who were against), digitalisation and all technology companies will raise to the sky.

[Anonymous No.17991231]

Personally I'm not selling MSFT at a loss. Their business model seems strong throughout this pandemics. Also not relying on ads revenue like GOOG.

[Anonymous No.17991259]

>>17991231
yeah one of my last holds
getting entirely unfairly fucked - either their fleeing investors are dumb, or I am

[Anonymous No.17991262]

>>17991135
I've been doing my due diligence on this and live nation is fucked

[Anonymous No.17991294]

Food will be the only industry left because it's the bare minimum we need to survive if it ever gets that bad.

[Anonymous No.17991402]

>>17990993
I doubt it Musk makes a lot of money with spaceX and tesla survived the previous recession in worse conditions.
Don't underestimate musk , he is very smart.

[Anonymous No.17991450]

>>17991231
>>17991259
There's going to be less OS sales since there's going to be less PC sales. Strong sell.

[Anonymous No.17991460]

>>17991135
>>17991262
Are you guys buying puts?

[Anonymous No.17991470]

>>17991460
Yup

[Anonymous No.17991472]

>>17990776
What makes you think this will last 12-18 months? This will be over in 2-4 months

[Anonymous No.17991517]

>>17991470
Can you walk me through it because I’ve never traded options but I’d like to start. I have some cash to play with that I’m ok losing but I’d like to give it a go

[Anonymous No.17991557]

>>17991517
Sorry dude I'm not gonna explain it all and I'm gonna give you the best tip your ever gonna get on here. Dont invest your money into something you have no fucking idea about. Read and learn your shit first

[Anonymous No.17991563]

>>17991148
Vr??

[Anonymous No.17991580]

>>17990776
When you have a bloated economy running on a razor thin margin. When you never prepare for a emergency. When you always depend of the government to bail you out rather than having a reserves in hand. This is what you get. In case anyone reading this thinks I'm talking about my fellow american citizens. I'm not. We allow these companies to operate under with pitiful regulations and this is what you can expect.

[Anonymous No.17991613]

>>17991472
>being this naive

[Anonymous No.17991751]

>>17991613
It's way overhyped people arent going to sit around for a year while their bank accounts get emptied just because a few boomers die. Summer will come the virus will have done most of its damage and people won't care

[Anonymous No.17991791]

>>17991613
It's over by May doomer

[Anonymous No.17991835]

>>17991751
>>17991791
It's not about the chinese virus itself. It's more about the economic impact. If there's a wave of unemployment that means demand for goods and services is going to crater.

[Anonymous No.17992088]

>>17991751
what if the government says no and civil unrest boils? how will people react?

[Anonymous No.17992194]

>>17991037
[citation needed]

[Anonymous No.17992226]

>>17991135
Bruce Allen was on the radio the other day trying to pretend all the concerts he was indefinitely postponing weren't going to be subject to refunds because they technically hadn't been cancelled. He might get to hold onto that money though, because the courts are going to be shuttered for the next few months.

Why Disney? I thought most of their revenue was on the production side rather than in the parks.

[Anonymous No.17992228]

Cool thread idea OP let keep it on topic.

I asked in smg last night but didn't get a reply. What about shorting MMB or other mortgage backed security etfs. I RECKON a lot of mortgages are going to default but the stocks for these have fallen at most (depending on the company and to my knowledge) 5%. I RECKON they will go lower, what do ya'll think?

[Anonymous No.17992244]

>>17990957
Lol muffins sound comfy

[Anonymous No.17992266]

>>17991450
Isn't a lot of their revenue SaaS now? I can't see that slowing down with WFH going on (though WFH could decline too once they run out of kinetic production to administrate).

[Anonymous No.17992289]

>>17991517
options mean that you'll lose more than you're okay with losing. not doing well with underlying stock is a bummer. not doing well with options can be suicide worthy.

[Anonymous No.17992299]

>>17991835
3 months of a shuttered economy is going to be a huge hit to those who were exposed to inflated assets, but what makes you think the contraction will last more than a year?

[Anonymous No.17992322]

>>17990776
amazon, walmart and costco have outperformed all other retail this week. they will be the only companies left standing.

[Anonymous No.17992406]

>>17990776
Amazon is almost entirely floated by AWS. They're basically a datacenter and cloud compute company that sells some shit on the side at this point.
Everything else checks out.

[Anonymous No.17992434]

>>17992266
>>17992406
That's a good point: since demand is going to crater there's no need for that web software shit.

[Anonymous No.17992519]

>>17992289
Ok I don’t want to kms so maybe I’ll just watch. I mean, if I put down 100 bucks, how bad can it be?

[Anonymous No.17992620]

>>17992434
I don't see that adding up. Outside travel and hospitality, the only companies that are confirmed dead are tiny ones. Tiny companies don't use IaaS/SaaS cloudshit. Medium companies which do use such services will probably just keep paying the bill every month even as they shed noncritical employees. Most companies. They could let go of nearly their entire IT staff and still be operational, but losing compute will halt them and losing their data can kill them.
Then there's the matter of cheap, private entertainment. Most online games run on AWS, Azure, or another cloud service. Tons and tons of websites do as well. I don't see cloud infrastructure companies shrinking more than the rest of the market. Tech in general is fucked short term, but anyone in online entertainment with good margins is fine.

[Anonymous No.17992650]

>>17990776
>amazon
>one of the few stocks that have been going UP
>that sells fucking everything from everywhere
Yeah sure OP.

[Anonymous No.17992742]

>>17992650
Amazon has gone massively downhill lately: their prices aren't competitive, there's tons of counterfeit products now, plus there's a shitload of absolute bottom of the barrel shit quality chinese products. PLUS something is wrong with their delivery system now. It's honestly better to go to the store or order something from a different seller. I don't think they even make any profit, so the writing is on the wall: it's an ocean of JUST.

[Anonymous No.17992758]

>>17990993
>"Tesla's finished!" Says increasing nervous short for the 12th time in the past 4 years.

[Anonymous No.17992766]

>>17992620
Clients are going to negotiate lower rates for their services HARD. If there's no room to lower rates, there's going to be other companies offering the same service much cheaper. Amazon is a meme.

[Anonymous No.17992798]

>>17992620
>Then there's the matter of cheap, private entertainment. Most online games run on AWS, Azure, or another cloud service.
People will have to choose: buy food or buy a game. Discretionary spending is going to see readJUSTment. As I said: Amazon is a big meme. Just like Tesla.

[Anonymous No.17992810]

>>17990776

[Anonymous No.17992882]

>>17992742
I don't know where you live, but in the US, their shit is almost always competitively priced. Yeah, there is tons of "shit" on there, but thats because they sell pretty much anything, even from moms and pops. Whats your point? If you want a brand name, buy brand name. And whats wrong with their delivery system? I just got 1 day shipping here and yeah, its not 1 day shipping right now because Id wager they are being fucked by this whole Corona thing, but Id be really surprised if they didn't get that fixed when this is over if not before.

And you don't THINK they make a profit? Based on what? Did Amazon beat you up or something? Did you just decide all big companies should burn?

[Anonymous No.17992921]

>>17992766
>>17992798
Retarded posts t.b.h.

[Anonymous No.17992929]

>>17992758
Forget the cash rate, interest rates are rising because people are going liquid look at the 10 year bond. How is Elon going to service his 6b debt? Its not like Tesla is making a profit at all.

[Anonymous No.17992965]

>>17992226
>NO REFUNDS
between them (Live Nation/Ticketmaster) they have a near concert/ticket monopoly. And near the entire concert-going public across multiple continents is a whole lot of people to piss off when you (presumably) want them to come back some point. If they start BS'ing they'll get fucked by public/media pressure/weight of numbers, legally not much choice, yaddayadda. Refunds all round unless bankruptcy first - personally, I'd be claiming mine soon

Disney are also into a lot of live event production, also obv. the shit already shut down indefinitely, theme parks, etc. Films is going nowhere soon -some- TV stuff might benefit - 80% of ESPN sports (by no sports) saf won't tho. They just bought a load of shit from Fox for $71b (Rupert Murdoch must have made a hell of a deal with the Devil) - they still owe $51b on that. And I doubt anyones supporting a Mickey bailout. Chinks'll buy em on the cheap

[Anonymous No.17992994]

>>17990776
Short the stocks and make a killing.

[Anonymous No.17993107]

Guys, would end of March be a great time to buy?

[Anonymous No.17993124]

>>17992921
Buy the dip then. You'll get a second dip for free.

[Anonymous No.17993147]

>>17992929
Tesla is positioned fairly well for the new economic paradigm with their affordable $100k cars.

[Anonymous No.17993167]

>>17992929
TSLA has 6B in cash, bruh.

[Anonymous No.17993179]

>>17993147
I'm ordering a long call on this post.

[Anonymous No.17993375]

>>17993167
Why don't they pay their 6b debt then?

>>17993147
I agree I don't have any money on tesla going up or going down, but if they don't make a profit before interest rates go up they're not going to be able to service the debt. They better hurry.

[Anonymous No.17993431]

>>17990776
>fast food corporations - no one is going to eat out
What? All I hear is people eating out, probably because they're depressed by the isolation

[Anonymous No.17993580]

>>17992228
Look at what happened to the leveraged meme ETNs like MORL MRRL HOML etc. The eternal swiss UBS ETRACS auto-liquidated them!! Those were the 20% dividend notes. Another one was REML that fell from $8 per note to $0.50 in less than 2 hours. Credit Suisse has not announced any mandatory redemption yet and it's trading back at $3, but still the MBS index took a huge hit, despite analysts saying it makes sense to hold mREITs right now.

[Anonymous No.17993854]

>>17990776
fast food will be fine I think, they have the best infrastructure for takeout and delivery. I have a chipotle and mcdonalds across the street from me I've been eating there plenty when I don't want to dip into my home stash

[Anonymous No.17993932]

How about Vegas casinos? Some like WYNN are down 70% from a few weeks ago. No more Chinese billionaires for a few months, however they might get some extra trump bux.

[Anonymous No.17993947]

>>17991148
But the question is which ones?
Blackberry dumped so hard even though they’re now a tech company

[Anonymous No.17993963]

>>17990776
these charts are eye cancer

[Anonymous No.17994198]

>>17993932
Theres no way Trump will let this handsome operator go under. Prob. bury the stricken slugs aid in any hotels bailout. Very keen to help out hotels, is Donald. Vegas itself, hell - odds are not looking great for it rn are they - shutdown might stretch a year or more.

[Anonymous No.17995595]

>>17992194
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200320192755.htm