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17316477 No.17316477 [Reply] [Original]

Can someone please explain this chart to me?

>> No.17316544

price usually goes up after hitting difficulty bottom. another way of looking at miner capitulation.

>> No.17316610

So are the peaks also logarithmic, but just negative? how do you estimate the top from this?

>> No.17316637

>>17316477
source?

>> No.17316670

>>17316637
100trillionusd on twitter
or live charts: https://digitalik.net/btc/

>> No.17316715
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17316715

>>17316670
I just want to say that I really like this site.

>> No.17316768

>>17316477
it means we're going to make it

>> No.17316781

>>17316610
just using this chart you could reasonably predict top of 30-40x price in December 2019. that's not the full picture imo and I think we will hit ~250k (roughly same % gain as last cycle just streched over a longer period of time).

>> No.17316825

>>17316781
why do you expect roughly the same % gain when its been lower with each cycle? because of more usage/fomo?

>> No.17317063

>>17316825
it was 60x in the last cycle and about 150x in the one before. so it appears to halve itself. so perhaps 30x this cycle and 15x on the next cycle. all speculation of course.

>> No.17317280

>>17316670
Someone pointed this out to me before but it really is amazing how the price follows the stock/flow 365 days so closely

>> No.17317330

>>17317063
So we talking 30x from 3k?

>> No.17317382

>>17317330
from that chart 30x from like 7000 or whatever it was, so 210k-ish?

>> No.17317391

>>17317382
By 2022?

>> No.17317402

>>17317330
from previous ath

>> No.17317435

>>17317391
according to the chart, yeah

>> No.17317454

>>17317330
Yep. Expect 80-110k$ bitcoin top. A lot of other models also give estimates in this range.

>> No.17317491

>>17317382
where are you getting 7k from?

>> No.17317525

>>17317491
the chart is miner capitulation, i.e. bottoming out of the hashrate, which happened mid dec 2019. The price was 6.7-7.5k that month

>> No.17317540

I'm a little confused. I always heard the top was going to be around 100k, not 220.

>> No.17317541

>>17317525
thanks im retarded.

>> No.17317614

>>17317540
well depends on who you talk to. in the stock to flow model, it's above and below 100k. Like if you look at late 2017 the price is like double what stock to flow predicts but now is really close to the model again
>>17317541
no worries anon

>> No.17317645

>>17317391
Yes. The new bullrun SHOULD start in 2020-21-22

>> No.17317664

>>17317540
According to charts used that measure bitcoin halving cycles the top should be 140-180k.
But of course, no one can know for sure

>> No.17317722

>>17317664
we'll know in about 4 years if stock to flow is correct or not.

>> No.17317937

My fiancee comes from a wealthy family and will be set for life when her boomer parents die due to the family trust stating she has to recieve x amount of her inheritance.

She wants to liquidate her 60k in her 401k and go all in on btc and ether. Should I stop her? Or is this based and unironically a good idea?

>> No.17317983

>>17316768
That's the sell signal I was looking for. Ty

>> No.17318002

>>17316781
>that's not the full picture imo
So what is your idea of the full picture? You just described what the graph is suggesting

>> No.17318043

>>17317937
I mean yeah who gives a shit in her position

>> No.17318052

>>17317937
me personally, I'm all in on BTC. However, I'm on the make it or suicide plan. I think 5-10% in BTC and the rest in Stocks is more appropriate for normal people.

>> No.17318067

>>17318052
Fucking based

>> No.17318079

>>17318052
This is me too, I'm make or break.

>> No.17318166

>>17318052
>>17318079
Based. glad to know I'm not alone.

>> No.17318180

>>17318166
Checked. 100% of my networth in link. I have $110k in link and $12k in debt. All in baby

>> No.17318211

>>17318079
>>17318166
well here's hoping we all make it

>> No.17318299

How does halving and btc rally impact alts? Do they typically keep pumping or does btc drain them

>> No.17318332

>>17318166
Me too. I plan on shooting myself in 2021

>> No.17318429

>>17318299
Alts follow up after bitcoin pumps

>> No.17318447

>>17317722
that depends on unchanged adoption rate.
if adoption skyrockets it's all out the window same if it drops heavily.

>> No.17318456

>>17318429
>>17318332
This. Bitcoin bubble pops and then profits are cashed out or they pump alts. It's all a pyramid scheme.

>> No.17318656

BITCOIN CORE IS DOOMED, time to move to the real bitcoin.

>> No.17318702

>>17317454
this, the amount of multiple different models that all predict new ATH at 100k+ is insane.
It's an accepted fact that the current halving is almost not priced in at all, and fair enough, its hard to predict the % chance this will happen. But when the price breaks previous ATH, and keep rising, the model will be confirmed and people should start pricing in the 2024 halving too, seeing as this has now happened 3 times in a row on schedule. I have a feeling we will see a 100k bitcoin early 2021, then the price will continually creep up to 300k as people price in the next halving from all the media attention & normies pulled into bitcoin

>> No.17318714

>>17318456
brainlet post

>> No.17318749
File: 115 KB, 1200x416, Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 10.49.15 AM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
17318749

>>17316825
from the man himself

>> No.17318763

>>17318052
Hear hear

>> No.17318785

>>17318002
Full picture involves more data points than just %gain since miner capitulation. Most of my trusted data points come from Willy Woo and other members of Adaptive Capital.

100k BTC is FUD

>> No.17318789

>>17318052
based. I think if i work it out currently about 30% of my net worth is in bitcoin alone, not including other cryptos

>> No.17318819
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17318819

>>17318456

>> No.17318880
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17318880

>>17318785
even just looking at current stock to flow graphs, 100k is where the price will stabilize after ATH of 200-500k, depending on how fast it takes to moon

>> No.17318952

>>17318880
>Bitcoin crashes to 100k
I bet Peter Schiff will be like "I told you I was a right"

>> No.17319021

>>17318429
>Alts follow up after bitcoin pumps

Likely to be different next time, since everyone will be expecting it after the incredible 17/18 altseason, it will probably get frontrun in such a way as to completely change what happens and catch most people out.

>> No.17319036

>>17318952
No he'll just say some shit like: This ponzi cant hold its value my rocks hold it perfectly
screencap this

>> No.17319148

>>17318952
>see, bitcoin just lost 100k of value in 3 months, too risky etc...

>> No.17319206

>>17318052

I'm riding on Big Daddy Bitcoin. If this doesn't hit in 2021 I have to go back to work and stop neeting. I can't imagine a worse fate bros

>> No.17319238

>>17318785
So you just meant there was more supporting evidence. Your wording seemed to imply a counterargument. I agree the suggested scenario is plausible.

>> No.17319257

>>17319148
frankly it usually corrects 80 or 90% from an ath
so $250k would correct back to $25k

>> No.17319270

>>17318702

It won't be that high by early 2021. No way. We'll just be nearing the previous ATH. However, you guys aren't seeing part of the big picture -- if Bernie wins the presidency Bitcoin will pump like nothing else from dumb millionaires and billionaires scared of a wealth tax. If Trump wins again more money will pour into every market. We literally can't lose.

>> No.17319307

>>17318052
You are like a little baby. I have my entire net worth in LINK. My gf took out a loan to buy more LINK. This was when LINK was $1.20.

>> No.17319327

>>17318052
85% of net worth in btc
>>17319206
same, but I will only work so that I don't have to touch my stack

hoping for at least $50k by the end of this year

>> No.17319814

>>17319257
Agreed, but in this example 25k would be the bottom equivalent of 3-4k at today's stage. The price would generally stabilize at a fair amount higher than that

>> No.17320003
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17320003

>>17319257
sure it would break down to that level like we corrected 85ish% down to 3,200 but now we stabilized on the stock to flow which puts us around 8000

>> No.17320065

>>17319270
this desu, we win from both cheap credit and a wealth tax, this next election is a win/win

>> No.17320536

>>17320003
what's the red supposed to be ?