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17279994 No.17279994 [Reply] [Original]

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>> No.17280813

>>17279994
So let me get this straight. BTC mining halves every few years, leading to reduced inflationary supply, leading to a doubling of the electricity required to produce a BTC. Because of the increased costs to produce BTC, this forces miners to either sell at a loss, to refuse to sell until the price reaches of passes the cost to produce, or they end up getting squeezed out which reduces the cost until things stabilize somewhere between these two points. Traditionally, this has led to a strong price movement upwards, triggering a bull market. All is good, right? I am not so sure in fact.

Eventually, this system will lead to centralization into the areas where the electricity is the most affordable. We see this happening with China currently. Additionally, we may reach a point where the cost of securing the network exceeds the gains derived from mining. A mass miner sell off event could happen, however for the reasons listed earlier, the system should be self correcting, but we will end up with much less diverse miners, and more large centers where mining is performed by large databases. We currently see something like this now as well.

What I fear the most, is that BTC may not be able to become valuable enough in the coming years to pay for these costs and the ever increasing ledger size. That one day it will not be cost effective for anyone to secure the BTC network without taking a significant loss. That the only thing paying these people, is no longer mining but rather transaction fees. I just don't see this working long term due to this. I won't settle for centralized databases or permanent inflation either. If BTC faces a potentially devastating scenario in the future related to this, and the only thing that can save it is by continuing to mint new BTC, you can bet your ass that it will happen.