/betting general/

[Anonymous No.16735380]

Could we get a regular sportsbetting thread going on here? This way a Pajeet could eventually contribute as well, if he has some insider knowledge from 5th league games. Or other smart anons who know more than the bookie.

[Anonymous No.16735396]

>>16735380
Calvin, no one is interested.

[Anonymous No.16735400]

Is matched betting still worth doing for bongs?

[Anonymous No.16735437]

>>16735380
Usually I'd say you can't go wrong with stats, but the Dolphins beat the Patriots so fuck me.

[Anonymous No.16735508]

i have a winning strategy, but i can't impulse control and lose everything on the roulette

[Anonymous No.16735519]

I´m going heavy on the Pelicans HC +11 today against those gay Lakers

[Anonymous No.16735562]

>>16735508
Next time you play pick 29 and think about me! Believe me, just check my

[Anonymous No.16735666]

>>16735508
Bruh you shouldn't be loosing to a fucking roulette wheel.
Bet on red or black, Loose? Bet on the same color with a bigger bet so you can win back what you lost and still profit. If you loose again, bet again with a higher bet. You know where this is going. If you win WALK AWAY FAGGOT.

[Anonymous No.16735780]

I support anything that's not b*v and l*nk retards shitting up the board so even tho I know nothunf about sportsbetting, have a bump

[Anonymous No.16736278]

where do you get info? do you trust statistics on your betting site? what sport do you specialize? where do you bet?

[Anonymous No.16736307]

Sixers outright tonight.

[Anonymous No.16736527]

>>16735666
That works until you get up to the table max bet

[Anonymous No.16736539]

>>16736278
I personally had a lot of success with betting the leagues in Iceland and the baltic states. The only reason of that is, that they are so small and so messy, that you can gain an edge over the bookie and profit really well.

Small and messy in this regard means: Sometimes they change the whole team, or come up with the B-Team, or put some 15 year old in as a goalkeeper in a match of grown up adults. Or sometimes it happens that teams are friends and at the end of the season they just lose to the worse team, to keep them in the league. SHit like that.
But that is mainly Iceland. The Baltics are way more sane in this regard.
And no, I don´t speak any of this languages there. Google translate is enough

[Anonymous No.16736550]

>>16736539
>Sometimes they change the whole team, or come up with the B-Team, or put some 15 year old in as a goalkeeper in a match of grown up adults
What I have to add:
The bookie obviously doesn´t keep up with that and the odds are totally wrong. So you can profit big time on some occasions

[Anonymous No.16736613]

>>16736278
>where do you get info?
Twitter. Club websites. National footbal websites.

>do you trust statistics on your betting site?
Do I have written "retard" on my forehead? Stats on a bookie website are always bullshit.
If you bet on them you will never win. That´s for sure.
>what sport do you specialize?
Whatever your comfortable in. You should find a niche, as I explained here: >>16736539 and here >>16736550
But I know for example also a guy who bets a lot on many different basketball leagues all around the world (no NBA shit). He makes a very good living off of it. But he plays a gigantic ammount as well.
>where do you bet?
Wherever you get the best odds normally. Oddsportal.com shows you them. Great tool. Normally asian bookmakers have the best odds and you can bet a lot there. But they normally don´t have that many matches in there. Depends on you at the end of the day.
I am not a highroller and it`s more of a hobby for me, so I stick to smaller ones.

Let me know if you have any more questions or if I should recommend you a bookie

[Anonymous No.16736905]

bump

[Anonymous No.16737453]

learn how to bet on mma fights.

[Anonymous No.16737702]

>>16735666
>play roulette the worst EV negative game in the casino besides slots
ok satan

[Anonymous No.16737721]

im a bookie
i set my lines up as -120 instead of -110 and nobody has noticed. i have around 40 active players.

[Anonymous No.16737982]

>>16735380
seconded

[Anonymous No.16738206]

>>16737453
The first smart komment in the thread

[Anonymous No.16739118]

>>16738206
>>16737453
You fucking retarded Niggers
If you are so smart then share your knowledge or just fuck off

[Anonymous No.16739135]

2 team nfl teaser. Take NO to -2, Phi to +8.5.

[Anonymous No.16739149]

>>16735380
BASED THREAD.

[Anonymous No.16739305]

I’d like this to be a thing

[Anonymous No.16739433]

I have access to a professional's plays before he makes them. Bets on college football, baseball, college basketball, nba, nfl. Order listed in most profitable to least profitable. More often then not he moves the lines.

[Anonymous No.16739465]

>>16739433
What’s the catch?

[Anonymous No.16739598]

>>16735380
What are some sites that aren't scams or rape you up the ass with fees?

[Anonymous No.16739624]

>>16739465
I'm not going to come here everyday to post the plays

[Anonymous No.16739637]

>>16739598
What do you mean friendo?
Good bookmakers?

[Anonymous No.16739643]

>>16739637
Just for online sports betting. From what I've seen, all the major ones have fees up the ass

[Anonymous No.16739664]

>>16739643
Where are you located?
US or Europe? Important to know in this regard

[Anonymous No.16739673]

>>16739664
Ah sorry Anon, I should've thought of all that befroehand. America. I'm in one of the states where it's approved.

[Anonymous No.16739737]

>>16739673
no worries.
I for my part use UNIBET quite often recently. Can´t complain. Saw that they have a website for people from the US as well. https://nj.unibet.com/
Maybe check them out, if you don´t know them yet. They don´t charge any fees here for me in Europe.
Other than that I am not really familiar with the ones in the US. Eventually check out https://nitrogensports.eu/ as well. It is a Bitcoin Casino. I never placed a bet there, but I read, that it seems to be one of the very few Bitcoin casinos with a good reputation and no KYC at all

[Anonymous No.16739772]

If anybody here is from Europe and wants to SignUp at Unibet, here is a referral link, which gets you double your money back on your first bet, if you lose. And I get a free bet out of it as well.

https://www.unibet.com/stan/campaign.do?cmpId=2333785&affiliateId=46&recruiterId=MTUwNzQwNg==

[Anonymous No.16739780]

>>16735400
depends on what sort of balances youre dealing in, its only free money if you consider your time free, as it can take a lot of fucking around.
if youve nothing else to do and have never interacted with the bookmakers before theres a couple of grand there

[Anonymous No.16739799]

>>16739780
>as it can take a lot of fucking around.
nor really.
You just have to know where to look:
Everything calculated for you including the profit margin. Get yourself an account with a good online payment system and you are good to go
https://www.oddstorm.com/surebets/

[Anonymous No.16739805]

>>16735380
>who know more than the bookie.
this isnt the hard part, these cunts are giving money way every week, its just that in time the hard part is getting bets on at the right price

[Anonymous No.16739819]

>>16739799
>nor really.
its all relative, the level of fuckery people are willign to put up with v the reward will be different for everyone.
ive been over the course with the offers in the past and there was once a time it made perfect sense to do so, as i had plenty of free time and i was skint.

[Anonymous No.16739851]

>>16739819
Well, your right. You can make money faster elsewhere. No doubt about that. Pay per hour is laughable. I just meant that it would be easy to spot such things.

[Anonymous No.16739906]

>>16739851
theres a lot of resources out there for new bettors to get through it, maybe too many, the bookmakers have adjusted their terms and offers from the good old days in response and it can be a minefield for new players to avoid the traps.
10+ years ago it was a free for all, they didnt even have kys checks online back then and you could open different accounts one after another. its also the case that irl books are more "vigilant" against people looking to exploit offers, even as relatively recently as 10 years ago it was a case of just hoping form shop to shop and filling your boots.

im still betting now but its mostly automated through running bots on the betfair website, margins are tight af but being tax free its still worth it.

[Anonymous No.16739911]

>>16735666
Literally why tables have maximum bets. At some point you're going to lose 5 or 6 in a row and bust.

[Anonymous No.16739923]

>>16735508
I’m really effective at roulette but I play for a long time and only bet a little at a time. Tip: always bet near or on 17, it’s my lucky number

[Anonymous No.16739925]

>>16737453
This is good advice. If you pick and choose, MMA is easy money.

I'll give you fags a freebie:

Maycee Barber is going to utterly annihilate Roxanne Modafferi at UFC 248 1/18. She's a heavy favorite but it's literally free money. 10% ROI in less than 5 minutes. Only chance she loses would be a DQ, which never happens.

[Anonymous No.16739933]

>>16739624
How do we get access to a professional's plays? Do you work for a bookmaker?

[Anonymous No.16740041]

>>16739925
nobody plays odds like that. It´s laughable. Even if it is a "safe bet", which don´t exist

[Anonymous No.16740059]

>>16739925
I never ever bet on sports or in general, but I’ll throw 100 bucks at this. Whatever happens is fine, would be nice to have a dog in the fight

[Anonymous No.16740202]

>>16740041
It's not laughable. It's a colossal mismatch. The true odds should be more like -2500 but the book wouldn't get action on Barber. It will be a slaughter meant to showcase Barber on a huge PPV card.

[Anonymous No.16740206]

>>16740059
You will get a better payout if you bet Barber to win inside distance, or the fight to finish inside distance. Roxanne can't survive 15 minutes against Barber

[Anonymous No.16740211]

>>16740041
Betting on Floyd Mayweather is always like 1.10 but it’s usually free money

[Anonymous No.16740229]

>>16735400
Yes, we are talking up to £20k tax free so of course it's always worth doing it. There's also casino offers

[Anonymous No.16740254]

>>16739925
Lmao barber prolly wins but value is on Roxy here

[Anonymous No.16740269]

>>16739118
Do ju jitsu for 3 months, watch fights, fade fighters who are too comfortable lying on their backs/ non elite players going for stupid low % success submissions like guillotines

Also as of September there is now a clear bias towards striking as opposed to wrestling/ grappling control

There, happy now

[Anonymous No.16740272]

>>16740254
You've never watched Roxy or you know nothing about MMA if you think there's value on her. The purpose of this fight is for Barber to have a brutal KO in front of 2M people. She's the next female star.

[Anonymous No.16740290]

>>16740272
And if barbers TDD isnt great shes gonna be a turtle on her back for 15 minutes

Barber is a rightful fav but -1000 for a fighter who might be extremely vulnerable on the wrestling/ ground isnt a good bet.

[Anonymous No.16740296]

>>16740269
>There, happy now
yes. Thank you friendo

[Anonymous No.16740446]

>>16740290
Can you even imagine believing Roxy is athletic enough to take down Barber?

This is a Gall-CM Punk level mismatch.

[Anonymous No.16740556]

>>16740446
People were saying this about Roxy vs Big Shev

Barber is athletic but a wild brawler, shes open to getting taken down
Again Barber prolly wins and yes prolly maeks it look easy in hindsight but -1000 is a terrible price

Winners bet on the numbers not the names

[Anonymous No.16740672]

>>16740556
The money disagrees with you. Barber was around -700 a couple weeks ago, that's where I got the bet

[Anonymous No.16740733]

Who here betting exange bro?

A lot of inefficiences...plus you can't manipulate the market

[Anonymous No.16740978]

we can create a group on discord, what do you goys think?

[Anonymous No.16741032]

>>16735519
And we have our first win here frends
Hope someone was with me

[Anonymous No.16741179]

>>16740206
That’s exactly what I bet on. Crazy odds, I’m excited. Cheers

[Anonymous No.16741201]

>>16740978
been in gambling discords before and its good fun when theres big events on live but you need a lot of people to make it work, attrition is a problem by default given most users are busting themselves on a regular basis

[Anonymous No.16741260]

>>16740978
Would be fun for this mma fight

[Anonymous No.16741306]

My winning strategy is always bet against who I want to win
Works every time

[Anonymous No.16741528]

Sports bookmakers often have political markets at unders and if you play the field right it's just like a bond. But worse.

[Anonymous No.16741707]

>>16735380
how do i sports bet with augur

[Anonymous No.16741719]

made 30k profit in 2019 with betting AMA

[Anonymous No.16741750]

>>16741719
eggsplain

[Anonymous No.16741778]

I dont even know who these fighters are but it looks like free money to me.

[Anonymous No.16741818]

>>16741750
bet on markets which are poorly priced and are inefficient E.G dont bet on fucking NBA, NFL, MLB, EPL etc.

[Anonymous No.16741872]

I’m addicting to betting on greyhounds because you can get winning dogs paying $30+

[Anonymous No.16741874]

>>16741872
$30 dogs win the at the same rate as $30 sports teams

[Anonymous No.16742012]

>>16741818
>bet on markets which are poorly priced and are inefficient
In my opinion bookies won't lose money so easly
they have the best statisticians
It's unimmaginable that there are inefficient markets when the bookie makes the odds for a living
>>16741872
>you can get winning dogs paying $30+
how?

[Anonymous No.16742016]

>>16742012
they don't have the best statisticans working for them, 99% of books just copy pinnacle/betcris/follow betfair.

[Anonymous No.16742175]

>>16741778
Okay i just put $200 on narat if i win i get $60
lets see how this goes.

[Anonymous No.16742286]

>>16741707
wait for v.2

[Anonymous No.16742309]

>tfw betfair is inaccessible where I live

[Anonymous No.16742505]

>>16741778
>using American odds and not the patrician decimal odds

[Anonymous No.16742529]

>>16742016
>they don't have the best statisticans working for them, 99% of books just copy pinnacle/betcris/follow betfair
they gotta stay competitive while also having edge
it's hard bro
it's not that easy
you need good statusticians for that

[Anonymous No.16742551]

>>16742012
>they have the best statisticians
myth, they follow betfair and pinnacle, then ban anyone who beats them a handful if times

[Anonymous No.16742560]

>>16742529
this

[Anonymous No.16742998]

bump

[Anonymous No.16743028]

>>16739933
Precisely. If there is a daily general thread, I'll post

[Anonymous No.16743043]

Spain 1 division

Real sociedad vs villareal

BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1.83

You can thank me later with btc shekels. Remember me Brah$$$

35hLarxwM7fF4RZ3AGNFapg4mDSiddcKNc

[Anonymous No.16743069]

I found a way for poorfags to get started in the sportsbetting game without any risk or own investment. Basically you get like 60€, if you are able to answer two questions right in a row.

[Anonymous No.16743118]

>>16743043
i wish you luck lad but betting pre match on one of the biggest matches anywhere in the world today, in one of the tightest markets, is not going to do a fucking thing for you long term.
we can only win by knowing more than the bookmaker, it is possible to do that inplay on very rare occasions even in the top leagues where they still react to ingame movements using a pretty rigid framework youu can see things develop in a way that they dont account for in the odds (ie if a team unexpectedly starts holding a higher defensive line, how calm/rash they are on the ball at the back, if the managers or any of the players are getting angry etc theres lots of little things that can affect the outcome of a bet).

besides, most football markets are objectively awful to bet into, theres 22 players, 2 managers, 3 officials and now VAR all of whom are capable of making irrational random decisions that cant be accounted for in the odds. on top of that any one of those random events can lead to the 1 goal it takes to change a games course entirely, which is totally different to 1 random mistake in a tennis, cricket, rugby or basketball game where each random score is a small fraction of the total points required to win the game.
theres was to make money out there and the books are giving it away all the time but fuck me give yourselves a chance at least

[Anonymous No.16743162]

>>16743043
not a bad bet, but 8/15 for BTTS would be enough for me (1:1 would do for result) - for noobs, always check home and away results for the teams in question, these can vary wildly. Here, we can see that Real Sociedad scored 17 goals in 8 home games, Villareal 12 in 9 away. So, both teams to score, good chance.
For (roughly) the same price as BTTS on that, I'm taking Real Madrid to win against Getafe (5mins). If only, because they can't afford to lose.

[Anonymous No.16743222]

>>16743162
>>16743043
ask yourselves, has a bookmaker ever refused a gambler on any of these 3 odds-on and totally obvious bets? what bets do they advertise to people the most? where are they willing to carry the largest liabilities?
ive been banned from more bookmakers than most and ive never once had them question a selection on the top leagues, if you want to give yourself a chance dig a bit deeper into the markets they restrict or at the very least the markets that they dont all follow each other on.

heres a free tip given i cant get a bet on anywhere anyway, goalscorers are a good example of markets open on big games the bookies can fuck themselves over on, anytime scorers especially. most games are priced up very early and long before the teams are listed, any surprise changes in the line ups are rarely accounted for in the odds for 20-30 minutes after the teams are known, especially in cup games this can be significant and in this VAR age knowing the penalty takers is huge, if they miss out youre getting a massive edge on penalty taker #2.
more importantly look on any of the odds comparison sites for the goalscorer markets, youll see huge swings in prices between bookmakers on the same selection, where as on goals/results they follow each other to within 1-2% automatically.

[Anonymous No.16743277]

heres a perfect example coming up, atletico madrid v levante, big game with odds on everything and available everywhere, so not some obscure outlying example.

Atletico odds to win range is 1.25-1.3, thats bookmakers agreeing they have between a 77% and 80% chance of winning the game outright, they all follow each other.
lets check their two most likely scorers anytime, morata and felix.
moratas odds of scoring today range between 1.44 and 1.8, thats 55% up to 70%.
felix is 1.95 up to 2.4, 41.7% up to 52.6%.
a massive difference in their rated chance to score between bookmakers, they cant both be right, which means one of them is wrong, which means its a market we CAN expect to win in.

if team news comes out and either dont start, other players will start top find themselves in better positions, on free kicks/pens and thus way over priced.
coreas odds range from 2.4 to 3.25, thats massive if either of the other 2 dont start.

[Anonymous No.16743286]

if you dont start taking advantages of the markets theyre just guessing on like scorers, be warned that its not something you should bank on doing forever, they will cut you off quickly.

[Anonymous No.16743395]

>>16743277
yeah, but meanwhile I can cash out for 33% profit in 30 mins on >>16743162 (or wait another hour or so for near 100%). Keep it simple, and big teams winning away from home (Liverpool won 8 from 9 so far) usually keep you in profit. Usually.

[Anonymous No.16743409]

>>16743277
>Atletico odds to win range is 1.25-1.3, thats bookmakers agreeing
why agreeing?

[Anonymous No.16743453]

>>16743395
you should only cash out if the odds being offered represent good value in any circumstance, regardless of your first bet.
pro tip, they dont give you good odds to cash out, ever.
they just reduce their overall liabilities on madrid by accumulating even more poor value money into the market.

[Anonymous No.16743486]

>>16743409
>why agreeing?
too much information, theres nothing about these sides thats a secret.

[Anonymous No.16743538]

>>16743453
yeah, if I was watching the game and Real were playing like shit and lucky to be one up at halftime (I am, they are)- 30% odd profit (Cash Out) probably still be an attractive option. But in a situation where Real (as said) can't afford NOT to win, as here - they are 1 up already, Getafe are pretty limited, 45 to go - the odds probably are, they will come away with the win. I'll wait, watch and panic cash in if Getafe start playing like 70s Brazil.

[Anonymous No.16743550]

>>16743162
alright i just read this post again and its scary how much of a noob you are here.
is this who is contributing to the crypto threads on here? holy fuck, every team in spain 'needs to win', every game.

if youre planning to cash out anyway, you would make more money backing either real madrid to score first, maybe even more on goal times?
I know that pre-match real were about 1.85 to win, between 4/5 and 10/11 in our odds, with them dropping to sub 1/3 after the goal.

for round numbers sake, you saying youve taken 33% profit after the goal, we can work out the odds the boomaker offered you to dip out.
assume £100 on at 1.85, £85 profit for a real win, cashing out for £33 profit means theyve offered you 2/5 for the bet.

youve just laid real madrid to lose the game at 2/5, when the true odds for the bet are 1/3, thats like saying your backing getafe/draw @5/2 when the real odds should be @3/1.
sort it out ffs

[Anonymous No.16743574]

>>16743538
glad to hear you didnt cash out, im not even against peopel changing their mind, the good thing about inplay betting is its the only chance we have to learn more about an outcome than the odds might suggest and making changes when required is vital.
if real are playing shit then dip, take the money now, also consider that HT changes things, youll know both teams attitude early in the second half and theres usually a 3/4 minute window to decide.
just for the love of fuck dont click the cash out button, go elsewhere and take the better offs on real not winning.

[Anonymous No.16743587]

>>16743574
>offs
odds.
or at least open a betfair account where youre margins are always going to be tightest by default

[Anonymous No.16743711]

>>16743550
Real 2 up, done and dusted and cashed for 66% profit. rolling it for another 14% (4/5 original odds) - thats not worth the bother of having to watch the rest of this dross tbqh.
>scary how much of a noob you are
yeah, one thats provenly up 60%+ in 60 mins - we'll see how Morata & Co. gets on later.
>u just laid real madrid to lose the game at 2/5
or draw,perhaps.. quote odds and stats all you like, can't beat an eye on the game. It was also a keep it simple thread for noobs to follow - should get a /biz/ betting comp going, impractical because anon tho, I s'pose

[Anonymous No.16744034]

>>16743711
>yeah, one thats provenly up 60%+ in 60 mins - we'll see how Morata & Co. gets on later.
where did i say that this was a tip?
youre a brainlet and the bookies will never turn down a lad backing any of the shitty prices youve mentioned here

if you want to have a betting comp then we can do that, would be hilarious

[Anonymous No.16744100]

>>16735380
I saw Uncut Gems and seriously wish I had the balls to do this.

[Anonymous No.16744103]

>>16744034
Then post your exact Tip 4 Today (+ odds), faggit,
Morata anytime or what? Got 15mins to Athletico ko.
>shitty price
4/5 is not a shitty price. esp. when it wins

[Anonymous No.16744185]

>>16744103
>4/5 is not a shitty price. esp. when it wins
they were hovering between 1.88 and 1.92 on betfair before ko, even considering commission it was a shitty price, the result doesnt change that, thats like saying you bought bitcoin at a good price for $4000 when it was $4500 elsewhere because the price went up anyway.

you want some help on your betting? im banned from everywhere but lets imagine a world where theyll take a bet of me. lets see some anytime prices on the 5.30 games
atletico, morata @4/5, felix@7/5, saul niguez@7/2
leicester, gray @6/4, choudhury@15/2
bournemouth, solanke@8/5
man city, stones@13/2, foden@7/5

[Anonymous No.16744222]

>>16744185
pick ONE faggit
Morata is not 4/5 anytime either, you lying cunt , post screengrab
>4/5 is a shitty price unless I'm using it dept.
away for some food (and champagne) - post your (one) Tip before ko

[Anonymous No.16744257]

>>16744222
youre right, hes 10/11 now with unibet.
you sound like a good sharp punter ill give you that

[Anonymous No.16744272]

>>16744222
just gone inplay and theyve taken the anytime price down, hes now 3/1 to your 7/4 great offer.

do you realise that different bookmakers offer different prices to one another?

[Anonymous No.16744291]

>>16744272
no was looking for specials, that (both halves) popped up, but you claimed 4/5, 4/5 it is. hunger calls (this time rly) but game on

[Anonymous No.16744293]

>>16744222
>pick ONE faggit
do boomakers force us to bet one thing at a time?
ive picked you 8, you should be sending me commission for this, i unironically get paid to help gamblers write exchange bots

[Anonymous No.16744301]

>>16744291
i get it now, its not the bookies forcing us to bet one thing at a time, its you limiting yourself to one mistake at a time for fear of losing money.

[Anonymous No.16744304]

I've been betting for years and go on r/sportsbook. Reddit is annoying in a lot of ways but the one way it is more useful than 4chan is a betting forum because poster picks are recorded and you can verify records before tailing some picks. You could be tailing a literal mongoloid on here and not know it.

[Anonymous No.16744401]

>>16744304
>and go on r/sportsbook
This place is fucking retarded. I can't even describe how disgusted I am from those mongoloids.
I checked it out the last few days. No matter where you look, it makes you want to find everybody on there and kill them.
Retarded picks, retarded explanations, most of them are degenerated gamblers which think they can beat the market easily, yet they are down several thousand dollars. And on top of that, their writing style is just awful to read.
It seems to me that everybody on there is a Basedboy

[Anonymous No.16744404]

I've always thought about putting big boy doll hairs on sporting matches that are obvious on the result. Like putting 1k to win 50 bucks.
Excited to see this general becoming a regular occurrence.

[Anonymous No.16744425]

>>16744401

Look a little deeper and you'll find cappers with actual models who barely post any explanation, just their picks for the day, record, and ROI. Tune out the rest, they are indeed just white noise, only 5% of bettors actually know what they're doing.

[Anonymous No.16744427]

>>16744401
That site is like 70% parlays. It's all punters

[Anonymous No.16744444]

>>16744404
>I've always thought about putting big boy doll hairs on sporting matches that are obvious on the result. Like putting 1k to win 50 bucks.
You dumb nigger. Not even reddit is that retarded. That's not how you do it. And that is not profitable for you neither. Ever heared of the word "value bet"?
Obviously not. Better stop right here, before you even start.
Look at is from this point:
There are people who make a living from betting fulltime. Nobody of them bets on shit like that. You won't make profit long term this way

[Anonymous No.16744472]

>>16744401
>It seems to me that everybody on there is a Basedboy
I meant *Basedboy

Just this thread again:
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ejgpsx/odds_of_ww3/
Not funny at all. 99.99% of those bullshitposters would shit themselves if there would be a war. They deserve the rope, and nothing less

[Anonymous No.16744476]

>>16744444
Alright the digits don't lie.

[Anonymous No.16744493]

>>16744444
gambling is good fun for 2 reasons, the challenge of beating the odds and secondly the reward that is available for doing so, its like playing a turn based strategy computer game where your XP is converted into $'s.
the whole shitshow wouldnt survive without r/sportsbook or retards like the lad backing real madrid here because 'they need to win'.
the mugs are as much a part of the equation as anything else.

it is sad to see who is really posting on /biz/ though, i put more stock in this place than maybe i shouldve, any one of these people could be the lads telling you theyve found some crypto gem or have some breaking news, there would be no way to know how retarded they are.

[Anonymous No.16744564]

>>16736307
Lol

[Anonymous No.16744745]

>>16744493
>the lad backing real madrid here because 'they need to win'
News, faggit - they won - you got a big mouth for someone who should be sweating round about now. 45mins . . . unless, they subbed him already

[Anonymous No.16744917]

>>16744745
>sweating
its literally impossible for me to back a player to score anytime in that game short of committing identity fraud lol.

youre way out of your depth here lad, keep lumping on madrid and taking half the odds available elsewhere on your bets, im sure you've got the bookies running scared

[Anonymous No.16744935]

>>16744917
lol
30 mins still, my Bookies Friend

[Anonymous No.16744970]

>>16744935
some people cant be helped apparently.
ive posted something above about their loose anytime scorer prices that would have some punter still doing them seething with rage about me putting out there.

post more screenshots of your prices though mate, we can keep a running total over the rest of the season.

[Anonymous No.16745143]

Started a new thread for online scams in which I described a way how to more or less steal money from a bookmaker. Check it out friends: >>16745129

[Anonymous No.16745219]

>>16744185
>>16744935
>atletico, morata @4/5, felix@7/5, saul niguez@7/2
>leicester, gray @6/4, choudhury@15/2
>bournemouth, solanke@8/5
>man city, stones@13/2, foden@7/5
5 lost, 3 won. solanke, stones and foden
+3.5 overall.

only trying to help lad, take it or leave it

[Anonymous No.16745271]

>>16745219
your nap let you down tho. Unlucky lad, unlucky. 4/5 as well, such a shit price too..
>Total Profit:
>Mr Cool - 166%
>Mr Bookies Friend Bigmouth Strikes Again - 0%
1-0
one nil, one nilll..
you got a chance of revenge for tomorrow - I'll stick with my prev. of Real Sociedad - Villareal BTTS - 8/15. I'll know who you are..

[Anonymous No.16745603]

I wholeheartedly support this and think it should become a regular thread / general. Sports betting is probably my only hobby that I don't have an outlet for on 4chan. If I can discuss origami and aquaponics why not gambling

[Anonymous No.16745695]

>>16741778
Dober has been looking sharp as fuck in the practice room. Take that for what you wish

[Anonymous No.16745721]

>>16744404
Terrible idea, I get the logic but it's not a good strategy for making money long-term. Do you really think you can get rich betting 10k on Real Madrid to win every weekend?

[Anonymous No.16745739]

>>16740229
>Yes, we are talking up to £20k tax free
yeah but you need to spend hundreds of hours pouring over an excel spreadsheet and keeping tabs of everything. It's more hard work than my actual job.

[Anonymous No.16745768]

>>16745271
youre a mong but youre funny, why dont we just gg right now and proclaim you the 4chan betting champ

[Anonymous No.16745843]

>>16745695
worth a bet?

[Anonymous No.16745853]

Live In-Play Bet:
Bet on Espanoyal to win vs Barca
@ 3.00

[Anonymous No.16745874]

>>16745843
It's where my money is going, but he's a teammate of mine so I would bet on him regardless.

[Anonymous No.16745928]

>>16742529
Clueless mate. The vast vast majority of gamblers are idiots who are just guessing, you don't need accurate odds to beat them. Its much more profitable to hire cheap traders who are awful at their jobs then restrict to pennies the 1 or 2% that can beat them, than it is to hire expensive data scientists to produce models for the literally thousands of markets you offer.

Its the soft bookmaking model and there's only maybe 3 or 4 bookmakers in the world who don't follow it. These anons >>16742016 >>16742551 are absolutely right.

[Anonymous No.16745985]

>>16745853
or alternatively set fire to a wad of cash, it's more fun. Are you drunk, a sociopath wanting me to lose money, or just dumb?

[Anonymous No.16746000]

>>16744444
>Ever heared of the word "value bet"?
Its perfectly possible for value to exist at short odds. If an event has a 95% chance of happening than any odds over 1.052 will be value. By themselves the odds tell you absolutely nothing about whether it has a positive expected value.

>There are people who make a living from betting fulltime. Nobody of them bets on shit like that.
I am a professional gambler, I make bets with odds that short (and every other odds range) all the time.

[Anonymous No.16746026]

Having read the entire thread now this guy >>16745768 is the only one in here with a clue.

[Anonymous No.16746034]

>>16745853
great call - fantastic. Really good bet.

[Anonymous No.16746041]

>>16746034
HAHAHAH he deleted it, how sad. Espanyol to win yes? Those odds were sure good!

[Anonymous No.16746236]

>>16746026
I said it earlier but its a bit worrying if these are the sharp minds posting in crypto threads all day...
Judging value in a betting opportunity can get quite nuanced but in the first instance, at least any punter regularly using a crypto imageboard should have some basic instincts honed to sniffing out a giant pit of shite theyre being asked to throw money into.

I consider myself a retired punter but I still gamble, occasionally I'll have interest fun bets on betfair but all of my real betting now is automated market making, also make good money helping others with coding trading bots.
Few years ago I worked for a couple of online books and we'd never take a position on anything unless it was an accident, there was no need with an army of europakis and slavs dumping all their money into a black hole we'd laid out for them.

[Anonymous No.16746266]

if we're going to have a regular betting thread we need some links for the op, a discord link, maybe even something crypto gambling related?

[Anonymous No.16746654]

>>16746236
I think you are vastly overestimating /biz/. I have tried in the past to spoonfeed people easy methods of making money off sports betting: matched betting, market strategies like steam chasing or wisdom of the crowd, the sort of thing any mong could make a few grand off. I've tried explaining the things you have to learn if you want to do it properly and make your own models, no-one's interested. The average /biz/ anon is too thick to implement any of the high effort ways to make money and is so astonishingly lazy that they will turn their nose up at low effort ways in favour of the only zero effort way, buying crypto and praying.

Would you say you are bullish at the potential for crypto to -~disrupt~- sports gambling? I am not optimistic. I would love to be proved wrong because a decentralised betting exchange with global liquidity would be wonderful but I can't see it taking off.

[Anonymous No.16747440]

>ITT: patter merchants who couldn't pick the winner in a one candidate African Presidential election
>>16745768
yeah, quit while you're behind punk. Your only good call this far
>>16746026
the guy who is currently 0/1 and bankroll $0.00, yup. Reg'lar Nostradamus, this is
>>16746034
tbf that game (Barca) was the typical type of shit that ensures bookies never go bust. No winners there, for sure

[Anonymous No.16747835]

>>16746654
>Would you say you are bullish at the potential for crypto to -~disrupt~- sports gambling?
Not yet, for reasons youve already stated sadly, for any gambling exchange to work there needs to be paint by numbers easy access for the likes of >>16747440 to feed the rest of us liquidity and right now theres a barrier to entry that locks most of them out. Even in territories like the US where theres unlimited numbers of retarded boomers itching to lose at online poker, not enough of them want back into games enough to find a way around the restrictions put on them.
Its also the case that sadly the biggest plus for crypto gambling is also its biggest weakness, that being the same mechanisms that allow anyone anywhere to circumvent local laws to feed the system, are also the same mechanisms that mean operators cant be held to account when something goes wrong.

Even if they have some legal entity in gibraltar, panama or malta, no government or insurer in the world will ever guarantee deposits when some angry pajeet coder simply transfers all the companies funds into the recycling bin.
For me to ever move into crypto gambling, I'd have to have access to all other exchanges cut off entirely, not even a tax on profits would stop me using established fiat companies right now (within reason).
Besides, the skills are somewhat transferable, theres always a market looking to be made somewhere, theres other areas with all sorts of edges others have no idea exist. Gambling in the UK right now is just easy and being tax free makes it an amazing opportunity.

[Anonymous No.16748217]

>>16747835
Completely agree. Honestly I'd go further and say some of the barriers aren't even legal or regulatory. The liquidity in sportsbooks dwarfs the liquidity in exchanges even though in most events you will get better odds, because mugs can't deal with the tiniest bit of extra complexity that comes from using an exchange. Imagine adding the extra friction of having to convert to and from crypto, punters just aren't going to go for it when losing gamblers are already very well served by soft books.

Also crypto volatility is really not good for gamblers dealing with 1-10% edges.

[Anonymous No.16748264]

Join my youtube live. I'm going to make predictions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYCUnYYvqiA

[Anonymous No.16748431]

any betfair exanger player bros here?

So many inefficiences....

[Anonymous No.16748521]

>>16747835
>Besides, the skills are somewhat transferable, theres always a market looking to be made somewhere
what is your next market to exploit ?

[Anonymous No.16748601]

>>16748217
>I'd go further and say some of the barriers aren't even legal or regulatory
Right now it seems alien to us given how heavily regulated traditional firms are now, to even consider what the impact would be if there was proven behind the scenes fuckery going on to cheat gamblers, theres just way too much easy money in it for any of the major books to ever try it and hell to pay if they do.
BUT... if an employee or other insider ever gained access to punters funds and stole/deleted them, the backlash would be brutal for the whole industry, we've already seen what has happened with the crypto exchange ((hacks)), its only peoples greed keeping them alive at all right now, theres no big institutional players joining in as theres no government insurance. Not sure if gamblers would be so keen to deal with international books that by default arent regulated.
Obviously the main stumbling block as you say is the pissing about trying to get crypto money in and out of a bookmaker, even in the UK where its totally legal its a pain in the arse but as of right now, you can go sign up with some dodgy asian firms for a bet but nobody does. Even considering that theyll take just about any payment method they have no takers, there would need to be zero other options but even then when thats the case we'll all just go invest in other markets anyway.

[Anonymous No.16748637]

>>16748521
>what is your next market to exploit ?
Because of the tax issues nothing as easy comes to mind right now I can talk about legally but if you can decipher something as complex as a football match and build predictive models that prove profitable, youll find loopholes everywhere in life.

Unironically the crypto exchanges just now arent far off being the next best thing, its possible to write scripts that identify the fat fingers and guessers in a market and separate them out from the other bots, tax is also a minefield (for collectors) if youre willing to travel and are sensible about security.

[Anonymous No.16748656]

Bet everything on da bears winning da superb owl

[Anonymous No.16749249]

>>16746654
>I have tried in the past to spoonfeed people easy methods

spoonfeed me pls.

if not here itt then on the discord group I just created:

other fags are welcome to join as well. In exchange I can spoonfeed you fags on crypto/trading/poker

server is: 64vU349

[Anonymous No.16749258]

my discord id is agreen#6534

[Anonymous No.16749315]

>>16745695
Nasrat should win imo but dober hits hard

Value on dober at +250

[Anonymous No.16749346]

>>16746654
>sports betting is easy bro just fade the public lmao
Know how I know you're a punter?

[Anonymous No.16749352]

Betting on hockey cause I fucking LOVE risking.

[Anonymous No.16749587]

>>16749346
Where did I say fade the public? Fading anyone or anything is a retarded concept that can't possible work.

But go on, tell me how you know I'm lying, should be fun.

[Anonymous No.16749610]

>>16748601
>you can go sign up with some dodgy asian firms for a bet but nobody does
I do lol, its the only way to get access to Pinnacle and SBO from the UK.

[Anonymous No.16750091]

i miss the old sp /bet/

[Anonymous No.16750673]

>>16742529
you literally have no idea wtf you are talking about

[Anonymous No.16750683]

>>16745928
absolutely based and redpilled.

[Anonymous No.16750716]

>>16749587
what are you making all your money on anon?

[Anonymous No.16750717]

>>16735666
>Muh martingale
You either win small or lose big, faggot. Even without a table max bet a casino can afford to lose 20+ times in a row, whereas you'll be struggling somewhere around 12. And believe me, 10+ red/black in a row is nothing unusual

[Anonymous No.16750885]

>>16736539
this is very interesting and fits with what >>16746654 is saying about finding value with 'wisdom of the crowd'. I've only just started researching it but this seems like the way to go - finding yourself a niche like Icelandic football or amateur tennis challenger tournaments and researching the shit out of it, then monitoring the markets closely and leaping on any skewed odds. I'm assuming that the bookies often fuck up the odds for Icelandic football due to random shit like them starting a part-time plumber in goal because the n1 got flu

[Anonymous No.16751206]

>>16750716
Individual sports, easier to model. Started with snooker and darts and then it really took off when I added badminton because its so absurdly high volume. Working on a tennis model atm.

>>16749249
>spoonfeed me pls.

>Matched Betting
I won't go into this in detail because its gay, its easy enough to google it and find far more info than I could give you. Basically it involves abusing bookies free bet and promotional offers.

>Arbitrage
Same as arbitrage in any other market, sometimes the spread of odds over two books/exchanges are such that you can make a small guaranteed profit by taking both sides. If the sum of the implied probabilities (1 / decimal odds) is less than 1, you have an arb. For example if the odds were 1.50 and 3.25, you'd do (1 / 1.50) + (1 / 2.50) = 0.974. There are sites that compile arb opportunities so you don't even have to find them yourself for example https://www.oddsportal.com/sure-bets/..

>Steam Chasing
This is when you try to follow the moves of sharp bettors by tracking how the lines move at bookmakers that allow sharp customers like Pinnacle, and then betting at bookmakers that are slower to move their lines. For example see pic, Pinnacle opened at 3.34 and then very quickly moved to 2.77, Pinnacle only moves based on sharp action so it means there are pros out there convinced that 3.34 is value, so if you can find a bookmaker offering 3.XX its probable that you are getting value.

>Wisdom of the Crowd
Somewhat similar to steam chasing its another method of finding stale lines. The idea is that the market average odds at any given moment are closer to the true probabilites than any individual bookmaker, so you look at the implied probability of the average odds, and then look for any book where the implied probability is some threshold higher, say 5%. You can read the paper that started this here https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1710/1710.02824.pdf and laugh at academics going >wtf they can restrict us if we win?

[Anonymous No.16751215]

>tfw missed an easy bet on the Pats losing

[Anonymous No.16751230]

>>16751206
Forgot to mention http://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets

[Anonymous No.16751255]

>>16751206
>For example if the odds were 1.50 and 3.25, you'd do (1 / 1.50) + (1 / 2.50) = 0.974
I mean (1 / 3.25) of course oops

[Anonymous No.16751349]

>>16751206
>Arbitrage
Won't you get either banned or severly limited in your maximum bet size if you continuously use arbitrage opportunities on your bookies?

[Anonymous No.16751370]

>>16751349
You will get severely limited by the most bookmakers if you have the temerity to win at all. But yes, bookies really don't like the strategies I described in particular and will restrict you heavily once they notice you are doing it. However there are enough bookies out there that you can keep going for a while, longer if you can use friends/family as beard accounts. The only true long term way to win is to become sharp and bet at sharp books and exchanges.

[Anonymous No.16751407]

>>16751370
*sigh* Thanks for your reply.
Is there a certain stake limit for arbitrage/sure-betting that might let you fly under the radar for a long time? Say everything <50USD for minimal ganis.
Back to Jacks or Better on pokerstars I guess.

[Anonymous No.16751442]

>>16745739
Train your kids to do it instead of chores.

[Anonymous No.16751463]

>>16751407
I'm not sure, I've never bothered with arbs. Based on how long I went under the radar when I started at very small stakes you'd certainly last longer at low stakes.

Honestly though arbitrage is not half as good a strategy as the others. Imagine books were offering odds on a literal coin flip, some smart book offers 1.90 on heads and 1.90 on tails, while the rest of the market is full of mentalists offering 1.61 on heads and 2.25 on tails. You could arb that by taking the 1.90 and 2.25 but why would you? You already know that 1.90 is a bet with a negative expected value so long term you'd be better off just taking the 2.25. This is true of nearly every single arb, one side has a higher EV than the other. Knowing this you could leverage the fact that Pinnacle is sharper by only taking the side of the arb which is furthest from Pinnacle's odds and at that point its just another strategy for finding bad lines.

[Anonymous No.16751509]

>>16751463
Thank you for the insight.

[Anonymous No.16751706]

>>16735380
Why do people think they can beat the bookies with their own picks.. Read the fucking literature.

The best strategy is to find value in the opening line by using the bookies against each other.

That's the first half, the second is beating yourself. Always bet according what the model says, no matter how much you're down.

Always cross-reference test to identify mistakes.

[Anonymous No.16751727]

>>16744564
Im going all in. Eagles outright!

[Anonymous No.16751747]

bump
suggest please good NBA matches where know what da fuck is doing with their odds and it's easier to find value BETS please

[Anonymous No.16751817]

>>16746654
im interested and willing to learn. share pls more strategies and tips.

[Anonymous No.16751897]

Reading through this thread reminds me of the stressful time I tried to keep my edge over the bookies. New accounts, proxies, dealing with their support to get my money, aggressive short strategies before they limit your ass. All this shit is really stressful and I stopped for a few years. I've met some interesting guys working in different industries with data and they gave me some ideas. Let me tell you, on the long run the bigger money is not in betting yourself but providing a service/advice for the masses or a few high paying customers. People paying you to provide the information that gives them an edge! So my advice to the few guys here who know their shit is to look into this business model. And if you manage to implement a system in your business model, that means automate most of your work, you end up with a stable and almost fully passive income stream.

[Anonymous No.16752033]

>>16751747
I am thinking about placing a smal bet on the Knicks Handicap

[Anonymous No.16752141]

>>16751747
I am liking the money line on Miami tonight. Jimmy is ballin is unpredictable on his style of play for the night doing what he needs too to win. Bam is an all star. Tyler(along with Luka) are the white guys taking over the NBA.

Portland. Carmelo. lol

[Anonymous No.16752150]

>>16742529
They actually do have their own stats team. They are usually all located in eastern Europe as well.

[Anonymous No.16752194]

>>16745271
>Real Sociedad - Villareal BTTS - 8/15
>66% + yesterday
>60% + today
The Undisputed and Undefeated 4chan Betting Champ Retires. !00% Record. Unmarked. Unmatched. You Only Had To Listen..

[Anonymous No.16752243]

>>16752141
There is no value to be found imho.
Apart from.that I would prefer Portland if anything. Bit both teams Play very unpredictable recently. Will stay away.
Like Memphis though.
But I guess I'll just wait today. Maybe some live bets if I get a good Line somewhere