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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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16708014 No.16708014 [Reply] [Original]

How do you prepare for the 2020 economic collapse?

>> No.16708031

>>16708014
Capitalism sure out lasts communism despite being an unsustainable system, I still buy guns bullets and water though.

>> No.16708048

>>16708031
not really a marxist but I can into historical materialism. 150 years is jack shit when you're talking about the changing economic and social systems we use. capitalism will probably collapse in our lifetimes if you are younger.

>> No.16708054

>>16708048
>not really a marxist but I can into historical materialism
Care to offer some details to this?

>> No.16708064
File: 131 KB, 621x1000, 1573258819627.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16708064

>>16708014
>Read Marx

>> No.16708070

>>16708014
Collapse happens in 2021 because of the quasi socialist system we currently live in where the government blindly ejaculates fiat into places it shouldn’t be.

>> No.16708078

>>16708070
>socialism is when the government exists and does stuff to the economy, and the more it exists and the more it does to the economy the socialister it gets

>> No.16708098

>>16708078
Yes

>> No.16708107

>>16708054
I guess I just dont identify with the term especially in a revolutionary sense, I guess i'm more of a technocrat but I think blockchain is a good way to foster leftist and ancom ideas while also weeding out tankies.

>> No.16708113

>>16708107
Not to come off as an asshole or anything, but you sound pretty confused.
I recommend this book to set you straight: http://ricardo.ecn.wfu.edu/~cottrell/socialism_book/new_socialism.pdf

>> No.16708123

>>16708014
>For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes, the gains tend to be even richer than those of their blue-chip counterpart.

>The S&P 500 tends to ring up an average annual gain of 11.2% when it finishes the preceding year with an advance of at least 20%, and gains 83% of the time, according to the data team. The S&P 500 boasts an annual gain of 27.9%, with about two weeks left in the calendar year.

>Meanwhile, the Nasdaq returns 14.2% on average, rising about 78% of the time, when it has registered a return of at least 30% in the prior year. The technology-laden index is up 33.8% thus far in 2019.

>> No.16708125
File: 2.94 MB, 266x400, 1576858083731.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16708125

>>16708064
Haeckel was not wrong, you know.

>> No.16708142

>>16708107
Blockchain will only enable the absence of any centralized power. No leftism is possible without a centralized power.

>> No.16708144

>>16708113
>http://ricardo.ecn.wfu.edu/~cottrell/socialism_book/new_socialism.pdf
ill check it out I mean its possible im completely wrong about what marxism is. but i've never felt much connection to any movement I just am convinced that capitalism will collapse due to technology's advancement.

>> No.16708149

>>16708142
leftism is only possible without centralized power. you are confusing centralization with the ability to plan an economy.

>> No.16708176

>>16708149
How do you redistribute income without centralized power?

>> No.16708184

>>16708149
You cannot force people to comply with your economic ideals without a centralized force enforcing those ideals. This is why every communist nation always had a massive and abusive government despite their ideology claiming such a thing would one day not be necessary.

>> No.16708191

>>16708176
>redistribute income
This has got to be the stupidest meme/strawman the right wig came up with regarding socialism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FekLGGOZBuY

>> No.16708194

>>16708176
>income

>> No.16708203

>>16708191
It’s the entire premise of socialism you dipshit.

>> No.16708213
File: 348 KB, 417x2036, socialist_concepts.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16708213

>>16708203
sure, buddy

>> No.16708221

>>16708191
Dear god. the "left cant meme" meme is true

>> No.16708224

>>16708213
Redefining well understood terms isn’t gonna work on this board bud. Try reddit.

>> No.16708232

>>16708184
I think it begins with the diaspora. when they have full infrastructure, and the sort of individual power that blockchain gives, you will see larger groups of people willing to work together and participate in that sort of system, because it is outside the reach of hegemonic forces and tamper-proof.
When you get their voices on a global network where money and location isn't determinate of value, you start to see that natural movement towards communism that a lot of leftist writers talk about. It empowers dialectic

>> No.16708240

>>16708070
Anon, that's just the natural course of degenerate capitalism.

>> No.16708243

Everyone, please

>> No.16708258

>>16708240
Capitalism had continuously produced crises throughout its existence. There's nothing "degenerate" about it if its systemic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_crises#19th_century

>> No.16708289
File: 1.14 MB, 2592x1944, image000000_01.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16708289

>> No.16708302

>>16708232
You’re rambling. The absence of centralized power and increased individual power means more freedom and less government control of anything. This is the exact opposite of every self described socialist or communist state.
>>16708240
Except every action by the government is a violation of someone’s property rights and so can’t be considered capitalism.
>>16708258
> lists numerous instances of government controlled economies.

>> No.16708304

>read marx
that poster was so close to making a quality post, so close

>> No.16708309

>>16708302
Poor people never before had power like they'll have power thanks to blockchain.

>> No.16708316

1. Be mobile. Always have a car with a full tank and extra canister of gas, 3 weeks worth of non-perishable food and as much water as you can carry.

2. Find a somewhat secluded parking lot within 3 hours of a walmart on a state route highway that won't be covered in snow 3 months out of the year.

3. Buy books now. They will be harder to come by and will be your main source of entertainment.

4. Stop eating fast/processed/sugary foods, as an American your body is going to go through some major issues as your blood sugar drops, your body starts digesting the saturated fats, and your general caloric intake drops significantly.

5. If you have any serious addictions end them now as the withdrawal will compound with 4

6. Get some serious camping gear and good boots, possibly a bike, for if the gas pumps dry up (I doubt it will get that bad). try to be within 20 miles of the walmart you're near when this happens.

You can do all this OR you can join in on the mobs of people but if you're too white or people know of your crypto you'll be strung up too. You could probably also find a farm to work on as a farm hand for well below minimum wage but you'll be living at the source of food. It really matters on how bad you think things will get.

>> No.16708332

Crapitalism is only worth for the doers.
Not for you, scum of society, not for you.
Socialism on the other hand is something that doesn't work for society made of humans.
Means of production and land cannot just belong to the people. They cannot rule themselves properly.
Both systems are garbage.
You guys are garbage for taking modern politics seriously.
Just play your video games and invest in your scam coins and don't concern yourselves with things way greater than you.
;) That's my advice to everyone for 2020.

>> No.16708342

>>16708316
schizo go back to r*ddit with your apocalypse paranoia

>> No.16708352

>>16708309
What power? Free access to goods, services, and the wealth they earned?

>> No.16708364

>>16708352
the ability to protect their own money physically. Nobody can come up to them with a gun and take the economic value away from them anymore. If they want to do that they have to steal it digitally which is almost impossible. Poor people will no longer have to rely on the guy who can afford a vault/investment firm to keep them alive.

>> No.16708383

>>16708289
Watch storing these. When you don't use them they seize up and become really hard to light. That spinner don't want to move.

>> No.16708394

>>16708364
Thieves can still point guns at people and demand their keys or for them to empty their address to another.
The best way to protect wealth isn’t a vault it’s a secret and secrets are free.
Also, the rich keep more of their wealth in banks. Poor people tend not to as what little wealth they have is only useful as pocket money.

>> No.16708406

>>16708125
yo what the fuck

>> No.16708407

Just remember what happened last time. Consumer goods prices went down. Rental prices went up. It was really hard to find a job. Many people moved out of their state to find one.

Be flexible and have enough cash for the long haul and you will be fine. Keep in mind it was also impossible to get loans for like a year or two even with good credit.

>> No.16708422

>>16708070
>the government blindly ejaculates fiat into places it shouldn’t be
>the government
Fiat comes from the Federal Reserve. The government's role in this is to send IRS strongmen out to manhandle American citizens to pay its debt.

>> No.16708424

>>16708014
Been preparing for a long while now.

>Have minimum 3 months food on hand
>Guns/ammo enough for the entire family to be armed
>General skills that will be useful to those who have none IE: Carpentry, General repair, Alcohol distillation/manufacture, Gardening, etc.
>Diversify your wealth into cash, PM's, Crypto, Items for barter (Vice items will always give the greatest return after food/shelter)
>Always have a go bag and know when to abandon your position and move on if things get to the point where you fear being overrun.

The above are good starting points also depending on how bad you think things will really get it's not a bad idea to get a nice first aid/mobile hospital setup similar to what the military uses (usually the size of a backpack) and also buy a field medics guide to tend to injuries.

>> No.16708428

>>16708422
Fiat comes from the federal reserve but the government spends it.

>> No.16708495

>>16708014
link to /ck/ thread?

>> No.16708543

>>16708394
>demand keys
>"no"
>fire weapon
>don't get any keys
>don't get any money
>just become a murderer for no reason bro
>most if not all major metropolitan areas now have sound triangulation specifically for gun shots
the reward has been taken away, no reason to take the risk

>>16708424
moving hospital is a bit much. I have a feeling most doctors will resort to private practice and working for cheap after hospitals shut down (which they will after the market has deemed healing poor people not profitable enough)

>> No.16708563

>>16708495
>>>/ck/13434545

>> No.16708580

>>16708543
>moving hospital is a bit much.
Congrats on your Kindergarten lvl reading comprehension.
>a nice first aid/mobile hospital setup similar to what the military uses (usually the size of a backpack)
Also you just unironically made the point for having one.

>> No.16708585

>>16708014
A freezer full of pork, and 10 BTC

>> No.16708617

>>16708543
People hand over what they have because they can suffer tremendously before they die. The threat of being shot or a loved one/cut with a knife is plenty.

>> No.16708663
File: 179 KB, 1165x846, 1567484194825.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16708663

>>16708125
imagine the smell...

>> No.16708670

Cash is king. It is worth more than a pantry of food storage.

>> No.16708688

>>16708563
>>16708014
Was hoping more people would discuss the collapse than the Marxism comment desu

>> No.16708693

>>16708688
You can always start a discussion, you know.

>> No.16708700

>>16708031
>capitalism
>banks literally not allowed to fail
ok

>> No.16708726

>>16708700
The water thing is dumber. I mean come on do people really think if a recession or even a depression happens there isn't going to be any water. I mean come on people use your heads. Everything on this planet needs water, likely most living things in the universe. Water will always be for sale.

>> No.16708787

>16708726
Yes but when the recession comes I will sell my water for a premium.

>> No.16708798

>>16708726
>Water will always be for sale.
There's probably a good reason why Michael Burry the super autist is only investing in water.

>> No.16708859

>>16708125
who the fuck would teach them this?

>> No.16708935
File: 592 KB, 1080x2160, Screenshot_2019-06-10-13-26-08.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16708935

>>16708726
It's more about the systems around water. Now that humanity has managed to reach a point where industrialization allows inland areas to be just as livable as the seafronts we have more people then ever living in places which are by all accounts unsustainable for the majority of humans. I live in the rockies along with a couple other million people and if the economic systems in place, that allows food from farms in warmer climates to be shipped to me and water from a river a hundred miles away to be piped to my house, were to collapse then the area I'm in would probably no longer be livable. Thats not very likely to happen, but I do see the thoughts around storing water and food long term. It happened in flint Michigan without an apocalypse so it's not impossible. Speaking of Flint however, I think the more likely scenario we will see in relation to water is some sort of large-scale pollution of water sources worldwide rendering a water crisis in which access to clean fresh water is capitalized and becomes a big commodity in the markets and in daily life. I think the cost of consumer goods will continue to lower, but the cost of food and water should start to become an actual problem in the next 20 years, maybe 40.

>> No.16709055
File: 468 KB, 1080x2160, Screenshot_2019-03-25-08-50-04.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16709055

>>16708935
Also as long as we're going to have a "collapse" thread I'll throw out some stuff.

https://archive [DOT] ph/GEySQ

Corporate loans have a huge trapdoor underneath them right now.

>> No.16709084

>>16708125
This degeneracy level is too high even for niggers standards.

>> No.16709457

The same way I prepared for the coming collapse of 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019:
By investing in the stock market.

>> No.16710430

>>16709055
aint clicking that phillippino link.

>> No.16710446
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16710446

>>16708014
>THE HECKING COLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEE IS COOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMING BROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS

>> No.16710473

>>16708014
Learning how to cook meth.

>> No.16710532

>>16709084
No this is typical African behavior.
>white man slaves away 45+ hour weeks and the government strips 30-50% of his earned income. Saves desperately to afford one or maybe two kids.
>nogs start breeding at the age of 14 and have 6-10 kids in a lifetime while recieving government handouts

>> No.16710700

its in 2022 screen cap this

>> No.16711078

>>16710430
Relax, it's just a workaround for the Wallstreet journal. I'll post it here too so we can talk about it:

Last spring, a real-estate lender hired three ratings firms to rate a series of bonds backed by speculative real-estate loans. Only one of the three got to rate all the bonds. Moody’s Corp. said about half were triple-A. Another firm said about 61% merited that grade. DBRS Inc. said two-thirds.
The winner was DBRS, which had just changed its methodology for rating this type of debt. Moody’s was only hired to rate one of the eight bonds in the deal, and rival Kroll Bond Rating Agency Inc. for a handful. DBRS rated all eight.
The ratings-selection wasn’t unusual: It has become standard industry practice. Fierce competition among ratings firms in a fast-growing corner of the bond market is allowing issuers to cherry pick the most favorable ratings. The result is that securities deemed safe by the ratings firms have increasingly smaller cushions against losses.
The security in question is a cross between two of Wall Street’s hottest markets—commercial mortgage bonds, which are backed by mortgage payments on apartment buildings, malls and the like—and collateralized loan obligations, which are pools of bonds backed by payments on corporate borrowings.
Banks sold a record $21.4 billion commercial-real estate CLOs in 2019, according to commercial mortgage tracker Trepp LLC. That was up from less than $1 billion in 2012 and made it one of the fastest-growing segments of the larger market for commercial-mortgage bonds, Trepp data show.
Issuance is soaring because investors are thirsty for financing to fix up buildings, a popular strategy in hot real-estate markets. Known as transitional loans, these mortgages are often based on a borrower’s plan to turn around a struggling property and fetch higher rents. Such plans might not pan out, making the loans riskier than debt that can be paid off with existing rent payments from a property.

>> No.16711102

>>16711078
The lenders that make the loans often securitize them by packaging them into bonds sold by an investment bank to investors. That means obtaining ratings from firms like Moody’s or DBRS to help investors judge how risky the bonds are. The firms provide bankers initial feedback on how they might grade deals and get hired based on that feedback. The fees are lucrative and can top $1 million, SEC disclosures show.
As issuance has grown, so has competition to rate the debt. DBRS had the early lead in the sector, rating 10 of 18 deals in 2017. But rival Kroll Bond Rating Agency Inc. began to dominate the sector after it changed its methodology that year. Kroll rated 21 of 25 deals in 2018, according to data from the Commercial Mortgage Alert, which tracks the industry.
A comparison of Kroll’s old methodology and its new one shows that the firm relaxed some rent and occupancy stress tests for mortgages financing multifamily apartment buildings—a big part of the market for these loans. That could yield higher ratings, according to current and former ratings analysts.
A Kroll spokeswoman said the 2017 change to the stress tests reflected the addition of more recent market data and that the firm wasn’t trying to relax its methodology to win market share. In an August letter to the Journal, Kroll President Jim Nadler said that cushions against losses are still bigger than they were before the financial crisis. Mr. Nadler credited the entry of new ratings firms for that trend.
DBRS revamped its methodology this March. The change included a new ratings model that assigns a lower probability of default to multifamily versus other property types, according to Erin Stafford, DBRS’s head of North American commercial mortgage-backed securities analysis. She said the new model was implemented because of its higher predictive power, not due to commercial considerations

>> No.16711120

>>16711102
DBRS won 16 of 24 deals since then, including rating the bulk of the $650 million bond deal backed by risky loans, which was sold by Arbor Realty Trust Inc., based in Long Island, N.Y., in mid-May. Kroll got hired to rate parts of that offering too. It assigned lower grades than DBRS on three of five bonds rated by both firms. The remainder was only rated by DBRS. Overall, Kroll has only rated nine deals since DBRS introduced its new methodology, according to data from the Commercial Mortgage Alert.
In late June, the head of Kroll’s real-estate group, Eric Thompson, accused DBRS of easing rating standards to win business. “This is hauntingly familiar of legacy agency behavior precrisis,” Mr. Thompson told the Commercial Mortgage Alert. Mr. Thompson told the Journal he stood by his remarks.
DBRS said in a statement to the Journal that the firm is a “learning organization” that refreshes its methodology to account for new data and analytical approaches and that other ratings firms “presumably do the same.”
To turn risky loans into investible debt, bankers use something called credit enhancement. That typically means rating a portion of the deal as speculative because it will bear the first losses if things go wrong. This allows the firms to give higher ratings to the rest of the securities because they have a cushion against losses. The more speculative the loans, the more cushion is needed. That is why commercial-real estate CLOs typically have thicker loss cushions than other commercial mortgage debt.

>> No.16711128

>>16711120
But now, those loss cushions are getting thinner. Under DBRS’s new methodology, losses on Arbor’s May bond deal have to top 14.5% before investment-grade securities start to see losses. When DBRS rated another Arbor deal a year earlier, it required a 21.25% loss cushion. Overall, loss cushions on the 16 deals DBRS rated since its March methodology change have averaged 15%, versus 19% on 14 prior deals it had rated since 2017, according to a Journal analysis of Commercial Mortgage Alert data.
Because the commercial real estate CLO market is still fairly new, there is little in the way of historical default rates to help investors gauge how these bonds might perform in a weak market. That makes investors wary about the ratings firms’ rosier assessments.
“They are definitely lowering the bar now,” said Henry Song, who owns some commercial real estate CLO deals in a $1.2 billion portfolio he manages at Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc. in Columbus, Ohio, speaking generally about ratings firms. “You definitely can’t buy these bonds based on ratings.”
DBRS’s Ms. Stafford acknowledged that credit enhancement has been lower under recently rated transactions but said the trend shouldn’t worry investors because the firm’s changes to its multifamily default assumptions were “historically proven out” by DBRS data analysis.

>> No.16711137

>>16711128
While falling credit enhancement concerns investors, it benefits issuers since it allows them to sell more investment-grade bonds, which lowers interest costs. Gene Kilgore, head of securitization at Arbor, said ratings firms had become too conservative in the wake of the financial crisis.
“The pendulum had really swung too far in the other direction,” Mr. Kilgore said. “It has become more balanced now,”
In July, Morningstar Inc. bought DBRS for $669 million to merge the two firms’ ratings businesses. The two firms each had their own rating criteria in several markets, including commercial real estate CLOs, where DBRS’s approach was generally considered less conservative than Morningstar’s.
In September, the firm, renamed DBRS Morningstar Inc., announced it would use DBRS’s methodology to rate commercial real estate CLOs. The firm said in a statement to the Journal that “commercial considerations had no impact on the selection.”


That's the article. Now you can discuss without clicking the link

>> No.16711150

>>16708014
m8 if you weren't dirt poor throughout 2018/2019 then why wouldn't you save some cash, gold, silver, BTC ffs

>> No.16711199

>>16711137
>>16711128
>>16711120
>>16711102
>>16711078
You telling me you Michael Burry 2.0?

>> No.16711239

>>16708048
>capitalism will probably collapse in our lifetimes if you are younger.
My guess is around 2060.

>> No.16711305

>>16708014
literally nothing is going to happen
you can screencap this is you want

>> No.16711324

>>16711305
Countries are already rejecting globalism. There probably won't be a collapse but you can expect the USA to lose some of it's dominance as it becomes more mutted despite closing it's borders to mexico. Europe will become a white ethnostate and rise and trade w/ china as they both boost each other up. Canada will also have a populist uprising

>> No.16711375

>>16708394
>the rich keep more of their wealth in banks.
no they dont.

>> No.16711406

>>16711199
Mr. Burry isnt actually concerned with corporate debt, well at least not as an investment vehicle and not as far as I'm aware of. There may definitely be a cascade of corporate debt though which would be very unfourtunante as that would impact basically every major market much worse then housing did.

>> No.16711602

>>16708014

I have saved a week's worth of beans

>> No.16711668

>>16708070

Honestly I don't think we have that long. These retards have pumped the housing prices up so much that pretty much 80% of people are locked out of the housing market in Europe. Rent is easily 2/3rds of the income of people with good, educated jobs. There are 25-30 year waiting lines for affordable renting places because the government has effectively seized all places through legislation and filled them up with "refugees" from morocco and other totally war-free zones.

Brexit pays for a LARGE part of the EU budget. Only 5 nations out of all member states had a net positive contribution to the budget. The EU now has to find roughly 13% of the ENTIRE EU BUDGET, which is in the hundreds of billions, to somehow not collapse next year. Talks have been heading into the direction of drastically increasing the pressure on the Netherlands and Germany.

>> No.16711698

>>16711406
So how do I make money off this? What instruments exist for me to short CLOs?

>> No.16711744

>>16708394
>>16708364
>>16708352

Exactly. The biggest thieves are governments and they can't exercise the level of control needed to stop crypto currency without becoming tyrannical. That will turn people away from their governments.

>> No.16711832

>>16711078
thanks for posting this

>> No.16711938

>>16711406
these banks and corporations need to fail so the free market can work it out again
but what do you think will happen, the fed prints a bailout for certain corporations to keep them open?

>> No.16712509

>>16711078
thanks for posting fren

>> No.16712535

>>16711698
Shorting corporate bonds, especially higher tiers, and probably on margin so you can get some decent returns. We are seeing an absolutely insane reversal in C3 right now with tons of money flowing in, risk adjusted just isn't a thing anymore, which is a big sign for future bearish action of course.

>> No.16712554

>>16711938
Yes they do, the fed believes they are acting in an open market manner in a wise way but they are actually cutting out large swathes of the participants which would boost certain positions. I personally like the bail-in theory, I think cyprus thought it worked well and I believe the FED thinks it will be a good tool to launch another equities bubble immediately after.

>>16712509
>>16711832
It is a very interesting article, you're welcome

>> No.16712561

>>16708125
meh who gives a shit
I danced like this at high school dances
shits cash man

>> No.16712571

>>16708107
Ahh, I miss my early investing years. I was a wide eyes utopian believer like you, desu

>> No.16712599

>>16708406
niggers

>> No.16712619
File: 244 KB, 1600x899, download.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16712619

>>16708014
Buy investing in dogecoin

>> No.16713469

>>16712554
I want to have a chat with you on macro and the FED's actions the last few months, if interested send me an email at baldleggedcutlet@protonemail.com

>> No.16714209

>>16713469
I sent you an e-mail

>> No.16714216

>>16708014
turn my body into a cute trap so I can seduce a warlord in return for safety

>> No.16714217

>>16708014
The economy is recession proof.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/goldman-sachs-is-saying-the-economy-is-nearly-recession-proof.html

>> No.16714230

>>16708543
*tortures you for your keys*
nothing personnel kiddo, but imma get them keys and after that imma clap them cheeks whiteboi

>> No.16714234

>>16708014
Stay in NZ and buy gold. Pure gold is exempt from sales tax here and we don't have to pay capital gains tax. Also we have plenty of food.

>> No.16714344

>>16708232
you have absolutely way too much hope in people. to a naive and delusional degree. most people are opportunists even within their own groups and interests. Some people will always be swayed by a better deal, bonds can even be too shallow for proper relationships/organizations, some people will thirst for more and do things for petty reasons. Even in the context of a simple wagies job or family unit, people are incredibly power hungry even for a shred of superiority and it can be self destructive and irrational. But they'd do it for a small taste of power. nothing is tamper proof unless you have cloned yourself and your clones completely share your ideals and cannot be swayed by anything and never change their views or themselves ever.

>> No.16714353
File: 129 KB, 1000x432, 1577086361566.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16714353

>>16708289
baste one year in hell bro

>> No.16714359

>>16708125
MODS

>> No.16714615

>>16714209
Shieet its actually @protonmail, so send me another one

>> No.16714852

>>16708316
Low effort LARP