/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.16689349]

Is Paul Krugman the ultimate patron saint of discord trannies?
Anybody who fuds the God Protocol would have never understood the potential of the internet at its inception.

[Anonymous No.16690212]

We automated away 4 million manufacturing jobs in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa; all the swing states he needed to win and did win. What was done to the manufacturing jobs will now be done to the call center jobs, retail jobs, fast food jobs, which comprise 30% of all jobs in the US, as well as clerical and administrative work.

But this economic upheaval is just getting started. Numerous warnings by the likes of MIT, McKinsey & Company, and Bain & Company say that by 2030—just a decade from now—anywhere from 20% to 40% of American jobs will be automated. You’ve no doubt heard of cars and trucks that drive themselves, but what about machines that can read X-rays and powerful new algorithms that respond to customer-service inquiries faster and more efficiently than humans?

A Silicon Valley startup has completed what appears to be the first commercial freight cross-country trip by an autonomous truck, which finished a 2,800-mile-run from Tulare, California to Quakertown, Pennsylvania for Land O'Lakes in under three days. The trip was smooth like butter, 40,000 pounds of it.

[Anonymous No.16690226]

People invoke the Industrial Revolution and say we have heard these fears before all the way back to the Luddites, that new jobs always appear. It is unknowable what the new jobs will be, as it is beyond human wisdom. Oftentimes the person who thinks that all will be okay is guilty of what I call constructive-institutionalism: Operating from a default stance that things will work-themselves-out. This is, to my mind, a disavowal of judgment and reality. History repeats itself until it doesn't.

Every innovation will bring with the new opportunities and some will be difficult to predict self-driving cars and trucks will bring with them a need for improved infrastructure and thus perhaps some construction jobs the demise of retail could make drone pilots more of a need over time the proliferation of data is already making data scientists a hot new job category. The problem is that the new jobs are almost certain to be in different places than existing ones and will be less numerous than the ones that disappear.

They will generally require higher levels of education than the displaced workers have, and it will be very unlikely for a displaced worker to move, identify the need, gain skills, and fill the new role. We can celebrate the 200 new robot supervisors in suburban California, and the 100 new logistics specialists in Memphis, and the 50 new web designers in Seattle and say "Hey, we didn't know we'd need these 350 college-educated people to manage robots that took thousands of jobs. Hooray!" Meanwhile there will be 50,000 unemployed retail employees who will be looking fruitlessly for opportunities in their shrinking communities.

[Anonymous No.16690233]

The U.S. labor force participation rate is now at only 62 percent, a rate below that of nearly all other industrialized economies and about the same as that of El Salvador and the Ukraine.

83 percent of jobs where people make less than $20 per hour will be subject to automation or replacement. Between 2.2 and 3.1 million car, bus, and truck driving jobs in the United States will be eliminated by the advent of self-driving vehicles. Driving a truck is the most common job in 29 U.S. states.

The number of working-age Americans who aren’t in the workforce has surged to a record 95 million. The unemployment rate is defined as how many people in the labor force are looking for a job but cannot find one. It does not consider people who drop out of the workforce for any reason, including disability or simply giving up trying to find a job.

The unemployment rate also doesn’t take into account people who are underemployed—that is, if a college graduate takes a job as a barista or other role that doesn’t require a degree. As of today 43% of college graduates are working a job unrelated to their field of study.

The proportion of Americans who are no longer in the workforce and have stopped looking for work is at a multi-decade high. There are presently a record 95 million working-age Americans, a full 37 percent of adults, who are out of the workforce. In 2000, there were only 70 million. The change can be explained in part by demographics—higher numbers of students and retirees—but there are still 5 million Americans out of the workforce who would like a job right now that aren’t considered in the unemployment rate.

[Anonymous No.16690236]

One Department of Labor survey in 2012 found that 41 percent of displaced manufacturing workers between 2009 and 2011 were either still unemployed or dropped out of the labor market within three years of losing their jobs.

How do the 40 percent of displaced manufacturing workers who don’t find new jobs survive? The short answer is that many became destitute and applied for disability benefits. Disability rolls shot up starting in 2000, rising by 3.5 million, with the numbers increasing dramatically in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and other manufacturing-heavy states. In Michigan, about half of the 310,000 residents who left the workforce between 2003 and 2013 went on disability. Many displaced manufacturing workers essentially entered a new underclass of government dependents who have been left behind.

In places where jobs disappear, society falls apart. The public sector and civic institutions are poorly equipped to do much about it. When a community truly disintegrates, knitting it back together becomes a herculean, perhaps impossible task. Virtue, trust, and cohesion—the stuff of civilization—are difficult to restore. If anything, it’s striking how public corruption seems to often arrive hand-in-hand with economic hardship.

Morgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering $168 billion per year in saved fuel ($35 billion), reduced labor costs ($70 billion), fewer accidents ($36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization ($27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their $40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year.

Other autonomous vehicle companies report similar timelines, with 2020 being the first year of mass adoption. The market rewards business leaders for making things more efficient. Efficiency doesn’t love normal people.

[Anonymous No.16690244]

The real distinction is routine vs. non-routine. Routine jobs of all stripes are those most under threat from AI and automation, and in time more categories of jobs will be affected. Doctors, lawyers, accountants, wealth advisers, traders, journalists, and even artists and psychologists who perform routine activities will be threatened by automation technologies.

There is a lot of repetitive functioning in what we consider high-end professional jobs—what I call intellectual manual labor. A doctor, lawyer, accountant, dentist, or pharmacist will go through years of training and then do the same thing over and over again in slightly different variations.

The Federal Reserve categorizes about 62 million jobs as routine—or approximately 44 percent of total jobs. The Fed calls the disappearance of these middle-skill jobs “job polarization,” meaning we will be left with low-end service jobs and high-end cognitive jobs and very little in between. This trend goes hand-in-hand with the disappearance of the American middle class and the startlingly high income inequality in the United States.

It’s hard to understand what exponential growth means over time. Take the example of a 1971 Volkswagen Beetle’s efficiency. If it had advanced according to Moore’s Law, the vehicle, in 2015, would be able to go 300,000 miles per hour and get two million miles per gallon of gas. That’s what’s happening with computers.

[Anonymous No.16690254]

SECURE THE FUCKING BAG FUCK PAUL KRUGMAN FUCK PETER SCHIFF FUCK ISREAL

YANG2020

[Anonymous No.16690303]

>>16690212
>>16690212
the thing these nerds always forget is once they completely discard the husk of the middle class there will be nobody to consume their product, and in fact they themselves will be at risk of being consumed. this is why they want to give handouts away now, to extend the R+D period on their genocide. to support UBI is to be a willing slave participant in their genocidal experiment. I'd rather just wait and see what happens when they rig up their zippity do da productivity contraption and then get raped and murdered by the ravenous hordes of displaced workers that used to be their customers, it would be less tiresome than this commie bullshit

[Anonymous No.16690409]

Yang pump my bags pls sir

[Anonymous No.16690809]

>>16690254
OK Zoomer
But yes, fuck Krugman. Although, the guy honestly looks like a brain genius compared to Yang voters who get all their information from podcasts.