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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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16678810 No.16678810 [Reply] [Original]

>tfw stocks are literally going to go up forever because why wouldn't they? there's no better place to put your money.

>> No.16678822

>why wouldn't they?
nonwhite immigration

>> No.16678836

It's very Orwellian to me that people have been brainwashed into chasing average returns. It's been a very quick shift too, within the last decade. Nobody is concerned about investing in something that will change the world, no tech they are actually excited for. Bitcoin was that last bastion, it's gone in the stock market completely though. Everybody fancies themselves some sort of quantie that can never lose a trade because they've crunched all the numbers. Everything is all some sort of big game of chicken, whoever blinks first loses. Probably means we are going to war desu.

>> No.16678852

>this time its different

>> No.16678866

>>16678822
Unironically true. Look at American stock market vs Japan stock market. The Nikkei hasn't reach it's all time high's for the last 35 years. It's still halfway of it's ATH's, maybe soon kiddo. This is why America's great. Land of Fucking opportunity, baby.

>> No.16678867
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16678867

>>16678810

>> No.16678872

>>16678867
NOOOOOOOOOOO YOU CANT REINVEST COMPANY EARNINGS TO GROW YOUR COMPANY YOU HAVE TO LET YOUR MONEY AND DO NOTHING REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>> No.16678874

>>16678836
> why won't people smarter than me invest in a ponzi with no value instead of actual companies changing the world

>> No.16678883

>>16678836
You have to go back to /lit/

>> No.16678904

>>16678872
Imagine if those companies gave all the billions in stock buybacks to their employees instead.

>> No.16678917

>>16678883
Kek, I have never been to /lit/, fuck those fart sniffers. No I am enjoying writing essays on /biz/ thank you. I've probably written at least 10,000 words minimum today. I will write 10,000 more too, feeling in a very good mood.

>>16678874
Very true. Why won't they? Don't they want me to be generationally wealthy? Those bastards, its probably the boomers behind this again.

>> No.16678932

>>16678917
Can you write your thoughts on why bitcoin failed to be an actual currency and became instead a reserve of value? What crypto could fill the currency void left by btc?

>> No.16678935

>>16678904
lmao keep dreaming wagie
chad stockholder vs virgin wagecuck

>> No.16678957

>>16678935
It's crazy to me that people get to reap all the rewards for doing zero work. Other than executives the employees don't even get bonuses.

>> No.16678983

>>16678957
>all
kek we provide you with a job and a wage
what would your life be without it? we're literally keeping you alive

>> No.16679027

>>16678836
>big game of chicken

How so?

>> No.16679091

>>16678932
I would be happy to. I can only make a thesis using what I know, so this is likely to change as new information becomes available to me. Bitcoin didn't totally fail to be a currency in my opinion, it's a very good currency, just not practical for every day use. As we know the biggest roadblock in its adoption has ended up being transaction speeds. It's not useful to buy a coffee with when you need to wait minutes or even hours for the transaction to clear. What it is useful for is online shopping, as made clear by the silk road, transactions where an hour of lag time is at minimum expected. In general its biggest asset towards being a useful currency is the distribution, people just did not realize the scope of bitcoins adoption early enough, and if we ever see another bull run they will still feel stupid for not having bought in. So despite a small minority of people holding the majority of the bitcoin, its probably the only crypto that has actually been fairly distributed considering markets and infrastructure had to be built around it and nobody had any frame of reference for where it was heading price wise. Compare that to now where even forks are suspect, everyone knows where bitcoin has been and what they believe they can reasonably emulate, so they will always have in mind a market cap goal of 300-400 billion and plan their distribution and investments with that in mind.

So with that being said, bitcoin has seemingly crossed that threshold and solved the chicken and egg problem to become a legitimate currency. Because its the only digital way of transferring value that has both the mechanical means, the blockchain tech, and the social means, fair market based distributions, it has value. This value can be eroded if any of these ideas become untrue;

>> No.16679128

>>16678836

Lol nah tons of boomers out there thinking they can still beat the market and buy individual company stocks. It’s mostly zoomers going all in on index funds

>> No.16679135

>>16678836
>Why wont people guarantee themselves to be rich instead of chasing the 10000x moonshot that fails 99.99% of the time?

>> No.16679138

>>16679091
it loses social support, distributions become unfair from things like mass theft, the technology becomes broken which would be it can't interface with new systems not there is better tech, then bitcoin could face issues with retaining value. That does not necessarily mean it will die, we've faced similar problems with cash and integrated it fair enough into digital systems the last 20 years.

So all of these things considered it is in my mind logically a valuable thing at this point in time. We have systems that work better for trading value in minute to minute shopping and such, so I believe it became a store of value because it fills that role best currently. In the future some things it will be good at once it is more ubiquitous is payroll, real estate, general settlement, ect. And we know it will be good at those things because its currently good at online purchases, digital goods, person to person time insensitive payments, ect.

>> No.16679168

>>16678904

Create actual productivity increases through raising employee moral rather than keeping the price artificially aloft through buybacks?

Blasphemy

>> No.16679181

>>16679091
>>16679138
Dont you see the distribution as a soon to be a problem? I agree that bitcoin had the most fair distribution back then but right now we have a bunch of whales that can control the market. As mining rewards get halved the supply will decrease and price increase, making more prohibitively expensive to your average person to hold a significant amount of btc. Thats why ethereum's infinite supply sort of make sense, but PoS seems like another way to consolidate and centralize the supply of eth in the hands of those that already have lots of it

>> No.16679195

>>16679138

Good posts. I have a gut instinct that BTC will end up being the most valuable digital asset and other more fluid cryptos will be used for everyday purchases backed by BTC holdings.

Like gold. The transaction speed and fee burdens seem to emulate the bulkyness of real gold; ironic.

>> No.16679209

>>16678867
Yeah the stock market will never dip because the Fed prints money and gives it almost directly to shareholders.

This doesn't end. There is no imminent crash. No dramatic currency collapse. Every economy, every stock market, every central bank

Where have you been the past decade?

>> No.16679225

>>16679209
I'm in it. It is glorious.

>> No.16679253

>>16679027
Hard to describe, which is why I used such a cumbersome phrase in the first place.

If you were to value equity like bonds, yield to maturity, with total cashflow being used to pay down the equity, many of them would take 30-40 years just to return your investment, doubling your money since nobody is growing. This is why growth stocks have become so large in portfolios, and why heavy value stocks have super low P/E compared to everything else in the market. This has by and large been the "meta" for this cycle, bid up high growth stocks to the point your return would be abysmal if that valuation would ever drop, and just continue to hold that as growth increases. If you blink and say chicken, I.e. you try to sell, invest into new markets, invest into fundamental returns, or god forbid short, then you lose and your out. Meanwhile everyone who didn't blink is continuing to bid up the prices knowing they are not backed by real cashflow and sometimes even asset valuations, and the amount of BS is getting increasingly tall, but nobody wants to blink because they know they wont get the same returns. So nobody is investing into anything new, anything exiciting, they are just trying to hit the average return and bidding up the same ideas companies and concepts. But it's not funding real growth, and everyone knows that, but they are the only things consistently growing and nobody can blink until everyone blinks.

Probably the worst argument I've made today and there will be some errors, my apologies.

>> No.16679274

>>16678810
you're about to get buttraped

>> No.16679283

>>16679253
Right, except the bidding goes up a couple more decades before collapsing, at which point the Boomers are dead and Hispanics can eat the inflation by issuing the nuevo dollar in their country or whatever.

>> No.16679285

>>16678810
Kek

>> No.16679297

>>16679283
or the millenials and zoomers inherit all left by the boomers and it continues the way it is forever.

>> No.16679300

>>16679195
LMAO. Litecoin and silver do the same, right? Humans are so fucking stupid.

>> No.16679353

>>16679181
There are a lot of whales currently, but I actually see bitcoin only getting more evenly distributed as time goes on. If we are right and the market also comes to see bitcoin as the proper store of value for their needs, then any returns people are making now on bitcoin is akin to an arbitrage or forex process, trading it until it reaches near its true value. As bitcoins growth slows people will be looking for higher returns, which in fact is already happening with altcoins, and these whales will start investing their bitcoin to generate higher returns, allowing businesses to thrive and die and spend in the market process furthering bitcoin to spread out and become better distributed in the economy. You see this happen with equities too as their market cap increases, they take on new funding, they do distributions, go public, and what was once a 50/50 split of a 2 million dollar company is now a pie chart of thousands of shareholders and funds which owns the business collectively.

That is not to mention the amount of money still left to flow into the system so to speak. If governments started building reserves of bitcoin tommorow to create market systems around it the distribution would be sucked up by them via taxation and immediately spewed everywhere again to fund all the government services. I would argue most people wouldn't want to hold bitcoin just like most people don't want to hold bonds, largely it would become an institutional form of wealth between corporate and government entitys alike almost exactly as bonds are traded world wide.

>> No.16679366

And they call bitcoin a bubble. Truly clown world.

>> No.16679376

>>16679300
Nope, my argument for that is what I outlined in those posts. Litecoin was created in 2011, meaning at minimum the litecoin protocol was created with a semi-conscious goal of 40 million market cap seeming reasonable, a market cap that had been reached by bitcoin and set the pace. 40 million is nothing to scoff at, and distribution of the coin had bitcoins previous performance directly in mind for those who acted in or around the litecoin network. That is why litecoin is not a viable option for any sort of store of wealth compared to bitcoin. Currency is interesting in that first mover advantage you could more or less call it plays a huge part in some ways. Just look at all the peter Schiff cope about gold being the original currency.

>> No.16679379
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16679379

>>16678836
based, wall street faggots are pussies and capital markets are plagued with literal sissies

>> No.16679487

>>16678836
Apple, tesla, uber, amazon, google, facebook, etc, etc. Tons of companies have and are changing the world. The majority of western life now revolves around these companies products, and you can own and profit from the shares.

>> No.16679755

>>16678810
That's why I'm trading stocks anon

>> No.16680326

>>16678836
>Bitcoin was that last bastion
Biotech gonna be huge in the next decade

>> No.16680331

>>16678867
whu this unblanced situation?

>> No.16680470

>>16679128
>It’s mostly zoomers going all in on index funds
it's the opposite

>> No.16680578

>>16678836
So incredibly based. Nailed it in a way I haven’t seen an anon do on /biz/ in a while

>> No.16681112

>>16678810
>government keeps deficit spending to stimulate the economy
>companies receive this money and look at their options
>nope the fuck out of any actual productive investments and just buy back stock
>this causes stock prices to go up
>government can't stop deficit spending or it will kill the entire economy
>manipulating news headlines via twitter shitposting just to keep things going up eternally

Mega based.

>> No.16681215
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16681215

>>16678810
>there's no better place to put your money.
this but unironically

>> No.16681335
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16681335

>>16681215
>(((Unexplained)))

>> No.16681373

>>16678867
What happened since 2013 and how do I profit from it?

>> No.16681386

>>16679209
This.

The stock market is going exponential (inverse of fiat Federal Reserve Notes).

Time to go all in and ride the moonshot to ~2036

>> No.16681390

>>16678810
are you telling me stocks have been going up for over a hundred years and now is NOT the exact time it will all change and start going down? WOW

>> No.16681392

>>16681373
Check the Fed, BoJ, and ECB balance sheet data

You will see the backstop, the plunge protection team, the moneylenders of last resort

>> No.16681404

>>16681390
Its funny, most people here think thats the case

>> No.16681411

>>16681404
Most people here went all in on cryptocoins instead of QQQ for the past 36 months

>> No.16681427

>>16681411
That's not true. Some of us went SQQQ and actively contemplate death every day.

>> No.16681524

>>16681390
Cheap energy, growing economic complexity off of steadily rising IQ and education levels, the abolition of communism, and globalization aren't permanent trends.

In fact, those economic drivers all seem to be either static or reversing.

At first glance, the next 100 years would need copious nuclear power + lithium, embryo selection or gene modification, and lunar/martian/space settlement. If any one of those fail, it's likely we're back to the normal stagnation that defines 99.9% of human history.

>> No.16681536

>>16681524
Nuclear power's attainable, lithium is outdated and we're looking for alternatives to it.

>> No.16681542

>>16681536
OK, we need your non-lithium batteries or else the flexible portable transport provided by gasoline goes away and that hits GDP in a very big way.

Also we need nuclear power actually up and running sooner rather than later. Even if climate changers are overhyping things or completely wrong, oil is getting more difficult to extract by the decade. Considering nuclear autists haven't made any inroads with the public for the past half century, they might need a change in strategy as far as getting buy-in.

>> No.16681569

>>16681542
Peak oil's been pushed back by a century thanks to the US figuring out how to tap shale. And if that weren't good enough news, shale also provides enough power in capturing its waste products to make sure it's high on the EROEI scale that peak oilers always bring up.

>> No.16681714

>>16681569
Peak oil's been pushed back a century assuming that it doesn't get the nuclear energy regulation treatment.

Now run the numbers and backsolve, how would that happen? Who would make it happen? What are their prospects over the next, say, 10 to 20 years?

>> No.16681776

>>16681390
No one can predict the exact top

>> No.16681808

>>16681714
Nobody would make it happen, because the supermajors have a much more direct path to profitability than strangling out shale, which largely doesn't compete because of relative refining complexity.

>> No.16681888

>>16681808
Nobody in the oil industry, no. You're getting flanked from the education and political angle.

In a democracy, once enough people see oil as a world-destroying evil and enough liberal politicians see California levels of political security, that bastion of conservative power is dead.

>> No.16682001

All your parents had to do was put $60k in US total stock market index fund back in 1990 for you, and you would be a millionaire by now.

>> No.16682017

>>16681888
Nah, it'll just get rebranded. One of the (very few) benefits of rootless cosmopolitianism is that rootless cosmopolitans are very hard to keep organized on any one point for long enough to finish it.

>> No.16682326

>>16678836
chainlink is a scam