DB Failing?

[Anonymous No.16180692]

Hi guis, newfag here
I have a question which boils down to this: When will Deutsche go broke and what will the magnitude of the shitstorm be that follows?
Will Yuropoors be able to pay for food after it fails?

[Anonymous No.16181115]

EU Exit and all countries follow Britain and get the fuck off out the communist party zone, trump doesn’t get in 2020 sept! More like end of 2020

[Anonymous No.16181143]

>>16180692
Why should Deutsche Bahn fail? I know they have bad service but we don't have any alternatives

[Anonymous No.16181173]

>>16181143

[Anonymous No.16181268]

>>16180692
SHUT THE FUCK UP. IT IS NOT FAILING FOR FUCKS SAKE. NOT. FUCKING. FAILING. JESUS CHRIST IS IT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND. JUST BUY THE MOTHERFUCKING DIP GOD DAMN IT. IT'S LITERALLY FREE MONEY. IT WILL NOT FUCKING FAIL. NO. NO. NO. JUST PULL THE TRIGGER AND BUY SOME SHARES PLEAAAAASEEEEE FUUUUUUUUUUUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK.

[Anonymous No.16181302]

>>16181173

Im dutch and our railways are now paying jews money because our trains were forced to transport them at gunpoint. We pay the "holocaust" survivors, of which there seem to be millions, aswell as their multidinous offspring.

Oh yeah and the dutch man overseeing the payments is former labour leader job cohen, and i think he is a superkike. Also has owl statues all over his house (mlk)

[Anonymous No.16181369]

>>16181302
In burgerland we're told our "opioid crisis" is chemical warfare from china, at least on occasion it gets a mention on fox news!

[Anonymous No.16181413]

>>16181268
sounds like you're deep in denial faggot. cope harder.

[OP No.16181919]

>>16181143
Not Deutsche Bahn, Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bahn has also become shit tho, their trains are late now, which didn’t happen before... but anyway Will I be able to use a bank and my debit card when DB goes bust? I kinda wanna eat in the crash

[Anonymous No.16182609]

>>16180692
This is exactly how Lehman went down. It wasn't just all in one day, it was consistently going down over the years until the tipping point. Deutsche is hemorrhaging employees and cutting costs at every corner yet is STILL losing billions of dollars quarter after quarter. It will only get worse as the German recession continues. So it will almost certainly reach its tipping point soon, at which point either it will fail and start off another global financial crisis, or the government will take it over with trillions in new euros printed by ECB, causing the value of the euro to plummet and other banks/countries (Italy) will fail and start off another global financial crisis.

[Anonymous No.16182620]

>>16180692
This is utterly nonsense
Deutsche Bank is fine

Anyway man, I'm getting really sleepy
I think imma head off the bed right nowzzzzzz

[Anonymous No.16183068]

>>16182609
Also reminder that the depression was narrowly avoided in 2008. Fed/Paulson/etc were credited with "saving the world" by re-inflating the bubble before it could completely pop with trillions of freshly printed dollars. In a healthy market downcycle, debt is deleveraged, but that didn't happen. Now we have more debt than ever, and China is our #1 creditor

[Anonymous No.16184048]

>>16180692
If DB fails Germany goes into a depression, EU and US go into hard recession if not depression

[Anonymous No.16184079]

>>16182609
Fucking hell WHEN

[Anonymous No.16184115]

Going to keep buying the DB adr. The German government will do everything to save the bank and protect shareholders from dilution. Not giving themselves the Greek treatment, as poetic as it would be.

[Anonymous No.16184126]

>>16180692
>Will Yuropoors be able to pay for food after it fails?
Honestly probably not after he first few days. Trucks stop delivering, stores dry up. Have a store of food that you can survive on for a few weeks. Basic stuff my YuroDood. Don't forget water.

[Anonymous No.16184131]

>>16184126
What about Switzerland? Has always survived every war and plague

[Anonymous No.16184366]

>>16182609
>>16182609
they just started and laying off employees costs a lot of money in germany, all need to be paid for leaving according to the nubers of years they worked for them.

[Anonymous No.16184422]

>>16184366
Exactly, they literally can't afford to layoff employees as quickly as they need to. Another company that is going through the same problem: WeWork

https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-reportedly-delayed-layoffs-because-its-short-on-cash-2019-10

[Anonymous No.16184423]

>>16180692
What you don't get is that Deutsche Bank is not a national bank anymore, it is a multinational corporation, and everything is interconnected.
>Will Yuropoors be able to pay for food
Not a single country has the accounts in check and when shit its the fan, it will be a general shitstorm, including in yours.

[Anonymous No.16184829]

>>16183068
The Fed knows we're screwed. That's why they tried to raise interest rates, because they were near 0% and in a recession you need AT LEAST a good 4% buffer to cut in order to prevent a deflationary death spiral. In 2008 it went from almost 6% to 0% and it still wasn't enough which is why they pumped massive QE as well. But this time around they didn't even make it to 2% before the market started to collapse last December. In trying to prepare for the upcoming recession they almost caused it. Now they're stuck, they can't raise rates or the market will collapse, and the more they cut rates the worse our debt/liability problem becomes because the yield on bonds goes lower and pension funds are forced to take higher risks in order to meet their required yield targets. Percentage of debt rated BBB (lowest rung above junk) is near ATH, hasn't been this high since dotcom bubble. Meanwhile they're forced to print more money (QE4ever) to keep zombies running with short-term liquidity, but that money only goes into the investment banks to fuel asset inflation and overvaluation, it never circulates to the consumers.

They "saved the world" in 2008 but nothing under the hood was actually fixed, so the next time it pops the resulting global depression will be much worse than 2008 would have been

https://youtu.be/1Lsxe5keB2A

[Anonymous No.16185028]

>>16184131
every dead civilization has survived all disasters sent their way until the day they didn't

[OP No.16185115]

>>16184423
Ye, the Bundes Bank is the German national bank. What I am not so sure of however is this: do other commercial banks own DB's debts or does the Bundes bank do?

[Anonymous No.16185154]

In 1943 one of the german soldiers stole my grandpa's bicycle, he was only 15 years old at the time.
When will Germany pay their debts?

[Anonymous No.16185961]

>>16185115
Yes all kinds of banks domestic and international are creditors to Deutsche, they have one of the largest derivative footprints in the world, in the trillions with the most optimistic calculations

[Anonymous No.16186235]

Germany's GDP report comes out next Thursday. Expected to be -0.1% to -0.2%, which would cement a technical recession. But if the actual number comes out worse than expected Nov. 14th could be d-day

[Anonymous No.16187245]

>>16184829
I only have $1k and live near niggers, pray for me

[Anonymous No.16187248]

>>16187245
Better stock up on a shit ton of ammo and rifles

[Anonymous No.16187324]

>>16186235
The German media is reporting that the economy is doing better than ever and Germany is making massive gains.

[Anonymous No.16187415]

>>16187324
of course it is, it's the same story in the US
the delusion is usually at its peak just before the crash

[Anonymous No.16187819]

>>16187324
Not surprising at all. "The recession has been cancelled!" CNBC has been getting especially cocky lately https://youtu.be/eBJUNPCeJAg

[Schiff Will Win !!L6zziHG8/KZ No.16187841]

>>16182609
High IQ
Global financial collapse imminent, buy gold and silver to make it out alive

[Anonymous No.16188199]

>>16182609
>>16183068
>>16184422
>>16184829
>>16186235
This shit scares the fuck out of me

[Anonymous No.16188239]

germanfag here
dont request any payments, we paid already enough for you lazy fucks. nobody pays us for being set up in ww1.

goldman sachs just recommended to buy stocks, they see a new bull rally. recession canceled, nothing to see here

[Anonymous No.16188290]

>>16188239
cope

[Anonymous No.16188302]

>>16188239
>dont request any payments
What are you talking about?

[Anonymous No.16188327]

>>16188239
What the fuck is Germany’s problem anyway? You guys are always trouble

[Anonymous No.16188403]

What we really need to find out is what kind of junk DB are holding on their books. I imagine its a ton of triple B corp bonds

[Anonymous No.16188431]

>>16182620
Based sleepypasta anon

[Anonymous No.16188445]

In b4 the overnight repo injections are linked to DB

[Anonymous No.16188448]

>>16181268
Don't worry. I'm sure you'll be able to get another social media job.

[Anonymous No.16188698]

>>16188302
everyone wants money for ww2. we just managed to pay off all the debt from ww1 and thats 100 years ago. just fuck off and get a job lazy slavs.

[Anonymous No.16188781]

>>16188403
rated "BBB" by the """""rating agencies"""""

tick

[Anonymous No.16188816]

>>16188781
https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/2327663
Hundreds of billions of Ford debt downgraded to "BBB-", but don't worry the outlook is "stable"

tock

[Anonymous No.16188817]

Find this on a website

[Anonymous No.16188887]

fucked up thing is if you pull your money out of the market and fail to time the crash by a year or two then you'll miss out on a 2x

[Anonymous No.16188963]

>>16188887
Better to be a year early than a day too late

[Anonymous No.16189054]

>>16180692
when they publish the official numbers for this last quarter, not before, the market will milk DB till the last drop

[Anonymous No.16189113]

>>16189054
You mean this coming out next week? >>16186235

[Anonymous No.16189161]

>>16189113
That too but he probably means Deutsche Bank Q4 earnings

[Anonymous No.16189166]

>>16189161
this

[Anonymous No.16189287]

44 Trillion on books with deiritives
nice money print there to save them not !! Also, why is it all western countries have bought bail in laws ? Shit is about to get real

[Anonymous No.16189309]

>>16180692
Massive capital flight out of the Eurozone, probably to anything and anywhere overseas. US markets seem like big winners to me, maybe crypto as well. There's gonna be a lot of capital splashing every which way.

[Anonymous No.16189361]

>>16183068
>and China is our #1 creditor

lmao based retard bro comin out swinging with lines fresh outta 2014. whats next, you gonna tell me about KONY and shit holy fuck hahahaha

[Anonymous No.16189743]

>>16189361
It's true though

[Anonymous No.16189908]

It's truly amazing that folks with that level of financial education make so many catastrophic mistakes that lead to this in the first place

[Anonymous No.16189932]

>>16184422
>WeWork
Is there a more worthy target of being the poster boy of this latest market crash, like pets.com?

[Anonymous No.16190056]

>>16181268
Lmao, how much of this shitty stock do you own

[Anonymous No.16190080]

>>16188199
it should, nigga

[Anonymous No.16190081]

>>16189309
the US is just as fucked, but for different reasons
the impending dollar crisis will not end well

[Anonymous No.16190094]

>>16180692
I hope you anons remember to short the Euro when the market opens on Monday

[Anonymous No.16190102]

>>16190081
the dollar is the last currency on earth to fall, worry about it once the euro is gone and the yuan worthledd

[Anonymous No.16190103]

>>16190094
I’m already short 2 million euros

[Anonymous No.16190112]

>>16183068
To be fair, China is also in mindblowing debt.

[Anonymous No.16190132]

I wonder if buying puts on DB would be worth it. At least long term puts may have potential should this move lower.

[Anonymous No.16190205]

relevance? https://www.wsj.com/articles/executives-convicted-in-long-running-italian-banking-scandal-11573242895

[Anonymous No.16190653]

>>16190205
Just one of the many, many scandals DB is known for

[Anonymous No.16190999]

>>16189287
which major Western countries have bail-ins legal? I thought it was mainly just sketchy developing countries with this type of thievery

[Anonymous No.16192046]

>>16188887
you can make 2x in a year with bitcoin

[Anonymous No.16192253]

>>16190999
The Eurostan?

Only Trump’s glorious regime protects the U.S.

[Anonymous No.16192303]

Speculating about the fate of individual stocks is dumb. You faggots need to look at the macro picture.

The macro picture destroys individual companies, which in turn creates headlines that fucks the stock market.

Figure out what indicators are predictors of a stock market correction. Concentrate on the US market.

[Anonymous No.16192320]

>>16181302

Holy hell it's true, wtf is wrong with these people

[Anonymous No.16192343]

>>16188781

So if those get downgraded, they legally aren't allowed to have them any more?

[Anonymous No.16192354]

>>16190999

The entire EUSSR has this as law

[Anonymous No.16192363]

>>16180692
DB is too big to fail.
If anything, Hans and Helmut will gladly help them with a small tax raise.

[OP No.16192379]

>>16192354
What EUSSR?

[Anonymous No.16192515]

>>16192379

[OP No.16192554]

>>16192515
Oak I guess?

[Anonymous No.16192556]

>>16187324
kek just remember crypto in 2017. When we're making massive gains it's a signal that we're overleveraged or overpriced, that's the signal to get out

[Anonymous No.16192812]

>>16192515

The EU is not Communist. It's Neo-Liberal 100%.

What you have to understand is that the European Union is the end point of the roadmap that Britain/France/America had for Europe after WW2. To call it Communist is really fucking naive.

The Communists wouldn't have accepted huge influxes of immigrants and they wouldn't have been affected by white guilt.

[Anonymous No.16192842]

>>16192812
A Neo-liberal union functioning just like the Soviet Union, minus the order and bonus the made up "freedoms" as "human rights".

[OP No.16192900]

>>16192842
The EU most definitely has a one party system and the means of production belong to the people. It most certainly not have a stock market like the USSR. This is ur brain on EUSSR

[Anonymous No.16193000]

>>16190999

>Miss out on a year of gains
>wiped in two days trading

[Anonymous No.16193060]

>>16180692
If DB fails you get a domino effect and lots of other banks and corporations will fail too.
>Will yuropoors be able to pay for food?
Unlikely

[Anonymous No.16193133]

>>16182609
This kills the chainlink.

[Anonymous No.16193150]

>>16192842
You're fucking stupid.

There's nothing more neoliberal than the EU.

>National industries almost fully privatised
>Propaganda methods controlled by industry giants
>Immigration and labour degradation out of the ass
>Completely unable to defend against Russia and China's economic imperialism because MUH FREE MARKET
>NATO is a conglomerate of sissies just blindly following US orders

Commies would be the exact opposite of that

[Anonymous No.16193218]

>>16192842
The EU is more a free market liberal wet dream than the US ever dreams to be, you fucktard

[Anonymous No.16193244]

>>16192812
While the EU is not communist in economics it certainly copies the SSR in terms of blind egalitarianism.
Also (((Trotsky))) was keen on a world wide communist order and the eradication of races via immigration.
Unironically Stalin was the better option for the Russian people.

[Anonymous No.16193270]

>>16193244
>lenin brings in jamal from africa to fuck your wife
>stalin brings in gregory from nkvd to take your life
idk anon
something about a rock and a hard place

[Anonymous No.16193276]

>>16193270
>lenin
I mean trostky sorry please don't be mad :(

[Anonymous No.16193471]

>>16182609
>it will fail and start off another global financial crisis
explain why DB falling should led to a worldwide crisis.
>>16182609
>or the government will take it over with trillions in new euros printed by ECB, causing the value of the euro to plummet and other banks/countries (Italy) will fail and start off another global financial crisis.
why bancks should fail because of this?
just asking here

[Anonymous No.16193546]

>>16193218
Actually true

>t. Burger

[Anonymous No.16193558]

>>16180692
in 2014, I mean 2015, I mean 2016..... it'll happen

>>16183068
>Now we have more debt than ever, and China is our #1 creditor
What's the debt denominated in again... oh ya, USD retard lol

[Anonymous No.16193570]

>>16180692
Deutsche "economic collapse" is FUD from the Jews so you won't buy in

[Anonymous No.16193585]

>>16193570
Jews are like the master race /biz/ wishes they could FUD ChainLink like THAT

[Anonymous No.16193634]

I own chainlink. Most people on here are constantly buying cryptocurrency. A few of you are buying silver and gold. Won't cryptocurrency completely fail in the coming recession/depression. Should I go all in on precious metals instead of crypto which doesn't even have a meaningful use case yet?

[Anonymous No.16193709]

>>16192343
BBB- is the lowest "investment grade" bond. If it gets downgraded to BB or lower, it's known as a junk bond. Except agencies and brokers prefer to use the term "high yield" instead of "junk".

The lower the rating, the riskier the investment is, but in return the rewards are potentially higher. That's why it's "high yield". As interest rates and investment yields go lower, some people / companies / pension funds feel pressure to "reach for yield" by investing in the riskier assets. Pension funds in particular need to because they have obligations to pay retirees back and there's no way they'd be able to meet all their obligations on a small 1-3% yield. Just like how Social Security is largely unfunded, many state pensions are severely underfunded, and mathematically speaking they just won't be able to pay the vast majority of retirees going into the next few decades.

When corporate bonds are downgraded to junk, it doesn't mean that it's illegal or anything. But it does mean that new creditors will be less likely to lend to you in the future. After all if you're holding the debt and it gets downgraded, it means that the chances you'll never get your money back have just increased. If the company reaches a point where it needs capital to remain solvent and nobody will lend to them, that's usually when bankruptcies happen.

[Anonymous No.16193714]

>>16192343
>>16193709
Plus many investment funds have guarantees on risk levels, like telling the customer "this fund will only be comprised of investment-grade assets". If one of the holdings gets downgraded to junk, the fund manager is forced to get rid of it. Maybe they rotate that into a separate HY fund and spend capital to replace it with a new investment-grade asset. Maybe in order to do that, they need to sell off the junk bonds at a loss. Meanwhile the customers (you or I that put our money into an IRA for example) stop investing and start pulling money out of it if we lose confidence in the fund. Less inflow, more outflow, less ability to absorb losses, less ability to get new loans, it can all spiral out of control really quickly. That's how these large investment banks blow up eventually.

Of course these fund managers do everything they can to make sure customers don't know what they're investing in. Are you using one of those "target date" funds in your IRA? If so there's a good probability that under the hood it's at least partially made up of overseas negative-yielding radioactive trash.

[Anonymous No.16193738]

>>16193634
If the stock market crashes, tether will implode simultaneously and cucks on here will lose everything

Until crypto has proven itself, a metals allocation is critical

[Anonymous No.16193767]

>>16193738
>tether will implode simultaneously and cucks on here will lose everything
Pretty sure most people here would just keep buying and accumulating if that were to happen

[Anonymous No.16193785]

>>16193738
>Until crypto has proven itself, a metals allocation is critical
You mean, don't invest in something until it is stable and the yield has dropped sufficiently to not make it worth it.

[Anonymous No.16193797]

>>16193270
>>16193276
Nkvd would have probably arrived either way

[Anonymous No.16193819]

>>16189287
Dumb
It’s about netted exposure

[Anonymous No.16193824]

Huh.

The majority of my wealth (about usd 100k) is in cold hard cash right now for certain reasons, but I guess it'll be a good time for me to invest if DB does go down since I'm based in Japan.

>JPY goes up
>investments undervalued
>Buy undervalued equity with overvalued currency

To boot, Japanese savings allow for zero tax on gains occurring within a 5 year span just in time for recovery.

Could I be in the most perfect position now?

[Anonymous No.16193869]

>>16193558
>What's the debt denominated in again... oh ya, USD retard lol
Pretty sure this is a troll, but I'll bite anyway since it's important to understand.

As Greenspan and MMT keynesian pundits will tell you, it's impossible to default on a debt denominated in your own currency because you can always print more money. What they don't tell you is what happens after that. The dollar is devalued and confidence in the currency is shattered, domestically and around the world. So trade deficits skyrocket, those costs are passed onto the consumers, and your purchasing power is destroyed. Yeah nice going, just print more money lol

That wouldn't matter so much IF we weren't completely reliant on foreign trade for nearly fucking everything. We don't produce shit anymore, we ship our steel overseas and import the products made with our resources. We haven't been a self-sufficient nation for a long time.

[Anonymous No.16194242]

>>16184048
>If DB fails Germany goes into a depression, EU and US go into hard recession if not depression
Germany but not the entire world

[Anonymous No.16194293]

>>16194242
Its a chain reaction homie
We live in an interconnected globe and an interconnected financial system

[Anonymous No.16194309]

>>16193869
How did all this happen again despite all the supposed regulation put in place since 08?

[Anonymous No.16194362]

>>16194293
>>>16194242
>Its a chain reaction homie
>We live in an interconnected globe and an interconnected financial system

[Anonymous No.16194485]

any day now

[Anonymous No.16194608]

>>16182609
Good idea to buy puts on Deutsche stock?

[Anonymous No.16194630]

>>16193767
No, most people here would panic sell because the vast majority of their wealth is in crypto and they wouldn’t be able to pay bills

The downward spiral of panic will be glorious

[Anonymous No.16195196]

>>16194242
>>>>16194242
>>Its a chain reaction homie
>>We live in an interconnected globe and an interconnected financial system

I still don't get it. USA is the leading power of the world this is why the mortage collapse in 2008 started from there and got all the world. But if germany fails no one cares outside with superpowers as China and russland

[Anonymous No.16195211]

>>16194485
HA!

>the Happening never cooms
>mfw
>you
>t. GS

[Anonymous No.16195261]

>>16193869
kek this

retards who think the US will somehow not be affected by the upcoming recession can't understand this. stagflation is coming and of course the fed will decide to fight the recession, leading to massive inflation.

[Anonymous No.16195366]

They replied to this guy. Certainly looks like they'll go bankrupt. Expecting a Global Depression that hits harder than the Great Depression nearly 100 years ago.

[Anonymous No.16195420]

>>16193714
Lol I never stuck money into those things besides what they took (cant recall if it was willingly or the minimum required by law)

[Anonymous No.16195507]

>>16195366
>Certainly looks like they'll go bankrupt
IT'S UTTERLY NONSENSE

[OP No.16195620]

Will Deutsche fall if the German Q3 GDP is a little worse than excepted?

[Anonymous No.16195866]

>>16195507
>IT'S UTTERLY NONSENSE
Roared the man behind the curtain.

[Anonymous No.16195910]

>>16195620
Not unless it's significantly worse. The """consensus""" is -0.1%, other forecasts are saying -0.2%. If it surprises at -0.4% or worse that'll be a pretty big shock for the market in general. But I don't think DB itself would fail because of it. DB will fail once they run out of money, which is happening quickly. Impossible to say when though as we don't know all the internals

[Anonymous No.16196237]

>>16195196
The Swiss central bank buys German government bonds at negative interest in order to keep the price of their currency where they want it.
The Swiss government then turns around and sells their own government bonds at a negative interest rate.
If German banking system falls, the Swiss banking system goes with it, which could create huge losses for private firms around the world.

[Schiff Will Win !!L6zziHG8/KZ No.16196740]

>>16195366
OH NO NO NO NO

[Anonymous No.16196763]

>>16182609
How do I profit from this?

[Anonymous No.16196785]

>>16184048
How can I profit from it?

[Anonymous No.16197022]

>>16196785
Buy puts for low risk, margin for high risk.

[Anonymous No.16197495]

>>16196237
Plus DB has rehypothecated assets out to tons of companies/countries. Anywhere from 10 trillion to 40 trillion worth. If it fails it won't just be Germany suffering the consequences. Vast amounts of wealth across the globe will disappear in a day

[Anonymous No.16198205]

>>16197022
Puts on what. S&P 500 or Deutsche Bank?

[Anonymous No.16198239]

>>16198205
What I noticed is that s&p and dB move together. If dB news comes out negative for bankruptcy that would really jostle the markets. Big if though, so I'd say it's really up to you.

[Anonymous No.16198266]

>>16198205
S&P will keep going up as fed lowers rates back to zero, then when it hits 0 one of two things will happen.
1: The US joins Europe in giving out negative nominal interest rates.
At zero we'd be at a negative inflation-adjusted rate, but we've never been nominally negative and that's a huge concern from some investors, but not for others.
The reason you can still make money on bonds is that as long as the interest rate keeps falling, even if it's negative, you can make money on the sale while losing money on interest.
Eventually, though, people are going to start realizing that even holding physical bank notes is a better strategy.
2: MORE QE WOOOOO

[Anonymous No.16199093]

>>16198266
good post

[Anonymous No.16199098]

>>16198266
What will happen at negative rates is that people will just own gold/silver

[Anonymous No.16199467]

i just bought 100 $6 puts for jan 21.
am i fucked? should i shorten the expiration date?

[Anonymous No.16199495]

>>16189161
When is that, i might want to close out all my sell puts.

[Anonymous No.16199752]

>>16199495
Are you talking about the big column header right in the fucking middle that says in bold blue font "January 30, 2020"? Not sure, sorry

[Anonymous No.16199982]

>>16184829
Just make the interest rate -2%. Better than free money for all!

[Anonymous No.16200019]

>>16199098
Until governments ban ownership of gold and silver

[Anonymous No.16200079]

>>16193869
>What they don't tell you is what happens after that. The dollar is devalued and confidence in the currency is shattered
Why hasn't that already happened after all the printing since 2008? Is it just that inflation has been limited to asset prices so people haven't clued in, in the same manner they would be if the money went into commodities and their day to day bills exploded?

[Anonymous No.16200090]

>>16193869
I want you to know this has been excellent reading and I appreciate you posting

[Anonymous No.16200137]

>>16188963
this 100%

when it goes down this time it's not gonna be like 2008. Shit is going to hit the fan in a big way. So many people are in denial

[Anonymous No.16200159]

>>16193709
>As interest rates and investment yields go lower, some people / companies / pension funds feel pressure to "reach for yield" by investing in the riskier assets. Pension funds in particular need to because they have obligations to pay retirees back

... is it not more common for pension funds to put their assets in less risky assets as investors come closer to retirement? To avoid exposure from a market crash etc

[Anonymous No.16200160]

How long do we have left boys

[Anonymous No.16200165]

>>16190999
Australia as of last year

[Anonymous No.16200183]

Whats going to happen exactly and how do I prepare bros?
I'm in California so I'm pretty sure I'd die during another depression

[Anonymous No.16200189]

>>16200165
Source for this? I'm australian and haven't heard a peep about it

[Anonymous No.16200218]

>>16190080
>>16188199
>>16184829
What do WE FUCKING DO guys?!?!?!?!?

[Anonymous No.16200225]

>>16183068
>and China is our #1 creditor
Why does that matter to America? That's bad news for China.

[Anonymous No.16200306]

>>16200159
No, just the opposite. Why? Because safer assets have low yields, lower than inflation, sometimes lower even than the real (not CPI) inflation rates. And pension funds only have a small fraction today of the reserves that they need.

If you owe a boomer $50k in 2030 but you only have $10k now, that 3% yield treasury bond isn't going to cut it

[Anonymous No.16200322]

>>16188887
That mindset is how you go broke anon.

[Anonymous No.16200347]

>>16189908
>It's truly amazing that folks with that level of financial education make so many catastrophic mistakes that lead to this in the first place
They know exactly what they're doing. The mistake is we assume their intentions are one thing, but they aren't.
You have to think - What would their intentions be, so that this is the desired result, and it makes rational sense? That is usually that path to figuring out what's really going on.

[Anonymous No.16200367]

>>16190081
Nope. The U.S. is sitting pretty, as usual.
Dollar is the only viable candidate for global reserve currency and global capital is going to flood into the U.S. in the wake of the calamatous disaster facing the rest of the world's economies.

[Anonymous No.16200387]

>>16200367
>global capital is going to flood into the U.S. in the wake of the calamatous disaster facing the rest of the world's economies.
You mean China
The dollar is literally fucked

[Anonymous No.16200391]

>>16192303
>>16192812
Not once, but twice with the spacing. Now my fucking eyes are watering from trying to read your posts.

[Anonymous No.16200401]

>>16200347
In that case wouldn't the U.S. be centerstage for the new world order with the global currency revolving around the dollar?

[Anonymous No.16200406]

>>16181268
best meme on /biz/ right now kek

[Anonymous No.16200412]

>>16200367
No, trillions of dollars from US banks/firms are tied up in Deutsche. If that wealth evaporates the US companies have to absorb the loss (not possible), default on its own debts, or get bailed out with newly printed money (most likely scenario). All the major banks are extremely interconnected, they're like dominoes

[Anonymous No.16200413]

>>16200189
https://www.echo.net.au/2019/04/money-safe-bank/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/legal-opinion-deposit-bail-in-in-australia-is-possible/

>Financial Sector Legislation Amendment (Crisis Resolution Powers and Other Measures) Act 2018

Probably better sources elsewhere

[Anonymous No.16200426]

>>16190999
https://youtu.be/j6aTCOjUaoU

[Anonymous No.16200453]

>>16193709
>>16193714
There are 75 million Baby Boomers, but only 50 million GenX, and then back up around 75 million Millenials.
After the Baby Boomers die off, in about 20 years, there will be a smaller GenX retiring and a large Millenial Generation paying into the system. The deficit will be paid down for an entire generation leading up to Millenial retirement.
Based GenX comes to the rescue once again. The National Debt is a non-issue designed to frighten the uninformed.

[Anonymous No.16200461]

>>16200160
we're already dead

[Anonymous No.16200473]

>>16193869
>That wouldn't matter so much IF we weren't completely reliant on foreign trade for nearly fucking everything.
Completely untrue statement. Trade accounts for about 7% of U.S. GDP. We're literally the least involved trading nation in the world.
Your statement couldn't be more innacurate. You should sue your school for not only failing to teach you, but teaching you the opposite of the truth.

[Anonymous No.16200511]

>>16200453
Wow it sure is good knowing that totally hard working, definitely not spoiled millennials are going to become the majority of national entitlement inflow!

[Anonymous No.16200570]

>>16200090
It was drivel. You should read more.

[Anonymous No.16200590]

>>16200387
No. Trillions of dollars a year, growing each year, has been leaving China heading straight into the U.S. markets since 2016. You're buying high on China. Their collapse is going to be the worst one, followed by Germany.

[Anonymous No.16200612]

>>16200387
>The dollar is literally fucked
No way it's fucked. What other options are even viable candidates? The Yuan? No fucking way. The Euro had a shot until the raided capital markets. It's not used outside the Eurozone anymore.
The U.S. doesn't care about trade. It doesn't care if the Dollar is strong or weak. It's the only viable candidate for a global currency. No other option is even close.
Those are the facts. Mix in all the natural resources and the Navy, and The U.S. can't fuck it up.

[Anonymous No.16200619]

>>16200387
>the dollar is literally fucked
Imagine being this stupid.

[Anonymous No.16200624]

>>16200412
Yes. The entire global financial market is interconnected. The entire global financial market is facing a major correction. My point is, the U.S. is in teh best position to weather the storm for several reasons. Pretty much any angle you can look at it from, the U.S. is in the best shape out of anyone else.

[Anonymous No.16200648]

>>16200473
>>16200570
Nice try Soros. Nobody is talking about %GDP in trade dumbass. The point is that consumer product prices rise because US is reliant on imports from foreign powers.

And that 7% of GDP is a massive problem if the trade deficit blows up

[Anonymous No.16200651]

>>16184829
I just watched this today. Jim Rickards is based. Literally one of the smartest people in economics and politics. I think he can accurately read the direction of markets and politics.

[Anonymous No.16200662]

>>16200511
That trend is going to reverse too.
Shale fracking has created a surplus of both Natural Gas and Crude. We're on the threshold of being for the first time a net exporter of Crude, and we're producing more Natural Gas than we can store, transport and use.
Energy prices int eh U.S. are set to drastically reduce over the coming years. By 2025, industrial power costs will be so low, that the U.S. will be the cheapest place int eh world to process raw materials and manufacture goods. Even after you pay the American wage.
That's why we're sitting pretty. We don't need foreign trade. Most of it, 2/3rds is done with Canada adn Mexico anyway.

[Anonymous No.16200696]

>>16200648
>The point is that consumer product prices rise because US is reliant on imports from foreign powers.
But the U.S. isn't reliant on imports. We like trade. We don't need it and we sure aren't reliant on it.
Your statement is even more wrong when you compare the levels of reliance for every other country in the world. 50% of Germany's economy is trade. Food, energy, they rely on trade. They're fucked if the global trade system breaks down.
The U.S. just makes iPhones in Mexico or Kentucky instead of China if the global trade system breaks down.

[Anonymous No.16200737]

>>16200648
>And that 7% of GDP is a massive problem if the trade deficit blows up
2/3 of that 7% is with Canada and Mexico. The remaining third is split between Japan, Korea, China, Germany and Great Britain.
That 7% that you want to dismiss, is the lowest in the world. You're completely wrong on your assessment of the global trade situation, and the U.S.'s role in it.
Trump is telling the whole world to fuck off becuase we don't need trade. The global trade netwwork was never about trade for the U.S. It was about the Cold War and Oil. The Cold war ended 30 years ago, and the U.S. isn't interested in Saudi Oil anymore either.
Trump is making the necessary changes. Hillary would've done the same thing. It was coming either way, and it's bad news for the rest of the world. The U.S. isn't proping up the system anymore.

[Anonymous No.16200772]

And the rest of the world doesn't have a Millenial Generation. That's unique to America. They don't have a large generation of consumers and producers to keep their consumption economy running. They have a huge generation of retirees and a small young generation. Their math won't work. Germany has no choice but to import hoards of foreign workers to keep their system running for a few more years before the inevitable. The immigration isn't an accident, and it isn't humanitarian asylum. It's labor importation by design.

[Anonymous No.16200785]

>>16200189
>haven't heard a peep about it
yes, the gov did some shady shit to get it by.
The consultation period was only open for half of the usual time.
And the media didn't cover it at all.

[Anonymous No.16200850]

>>16200772
Wtf are you talking about? America has shit tons of mexicans moving to it.

[Anonymous No.16201285]

>>16200347
They just say "oops I did it again" and never see a second of jail time despite running a literal ponzi scheme.

[Anonymous No.16202066]

>>16180692

You goys dont understand, right now minus rates are getting widely spreaded which means companies and banks are basically decreasing their debt if they take more and more loans out cuz they getting paid to go in more debt which results in less debt in longterm cuz they can easily pay off the old high yielded loan with the minus yield rated loan. Since you frog meme posters dont understand Huge balls real world economics i dont take your stupidity so serious. Its ok you braindead shiny rock buying faggots always seek for reasons to push your uslss rocks.

[Anonymous No.16203153]

Maybe I'm wrong but if I keep my wagecuck job during a crisis how the fuck would I ever get trouble getting food on the table?

Wouldn't it actually be good for me because I can then jump into stocks when they're cheap?

[Anonymous No.16203294]

>>16194608
This is what I'm considering, but I feel like the possibility of DB tanking is already priced in. I think if DBs price starts to rise over a few months and the media then starts shilling that DB has solved all its problems then I'll go in hard on puts.

[Anonymous No.16203307]

>>16203153
Yeah if you have no savings you'll be largely unaffected. The problem is if your company decides to start laying off some of its wagecucks, depends how recession proof your sector is? If you work for the government then you're all set.

[Anonymous No.16203326]

>>16199467
How much were they anon? The longer the expiration date the less time decay you'll have on your puts, so you also have longer for DB to drop and still make money, at the expense of a lower maximum % return

[Anonymous No.16203428]

>>16181268
Is that Martin Luther on the right?

[Anonymous No.16203464]

>>16203153
It depends on what happens. The most likely thing is losing your job or savings. Debt can fuck people up as well if they live paycheck to paycheck. Those are the most likely scenarios but there can be other things - if workers of certain industries go on strike the price of certain goods can increase and make them unaffordable, if there's a war that's also bad. No one can really predict

[Anonymous No.16203488]

>>16180692
Too big to fail, will never happen, anyone betting on it is retarded and deserves to lose money

[Anonymous No.16203507]

>>16182609
ECB won't let it fail, the Euro can take a minor hit without consequences, if it goes down to be equal to the dollar that wouldn't hurt the export