/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.16139983]

Ok listen up faggots, Lots of boomer sympathizers sucking the old guys dicks today over new ATH.

Let me give you the 411

The repo markets, "da fuq is dat shit I cant even read dat nigga im legally retarded" an anon might say. Well, bassically banks put up collateral of less liquid loans to get a short term loan to operate with, this collateral can be anything and often times it's lent out multiple times in a fractional method. Let me explain for you Nigerians

So yah nigga Jamal bought 4 crack rocks last week, Jamal only sold 2 of those crack rocks this week tho cause tenequia overdosed and is still in the hospital. His supplier lil Jenashuan though has a deal with him, if he buys 4 crack rocks every week then Jamal gets the good rocks u know. So Jamal goes to his other nigga Tarazan and says "Tarzan, if I give you these 2 crack rocks then you give me $50 so i can buy 4 crack rocks, and when I sell two more crack rocks after tenequia gets out of the hospital I'll pay you $55 to get those two crack rocks back"

So Tarzan cant even do math but hes like fuck yeah I get $5 for free, here you go Jamal heres 50 bucks. After jamals gone though Tarzan realizes he aint go no money for no drank, so tarzan goes to lil Jenashuan and says "look dude, I'll give you one crack rock if you give me 25 dollar right now muthafucka, and then when Jamal pays me back I'll pay you $27.5 dollars for that crack rock back"

Jenashuan is a bizness man, so Jenashuan says "aight blood deal". Now later that night Tenequia gets out of the hospital and is fiendin, so Jamal sells her the two cracks rock. He goes back to Tarzan and pays him $55, then tarzan goes to Jenashuan and pays him 27.5, then tarzan has his two crack rocks back and gives them back to Jamal. You niggers get this?

Now, Jamal thinks this is a good racket and does this to keep his tight re-up schedule. One day though Jamal gets some dirty crack rocks, aint nobody wanna smoke these bitches. Cont.

[Anonymous No.16139992]

Didn’t read LOL

[Anonymous No.16140008]

>>16139983
keep going, plox

[Anonymous No.16140022]

>>16139983
Interesting. So Jamal isnt making any money off of this? Who is Jamal in the repo market scenarios? The fed?

[Anonymous No.16140045]

So Jamal does his usual deal, both tarzan and Jenashuan do their deal as well. Everybody has some of the crack rocks. Then they realize these crack rocks are diry as fuck cuz. Jamal is thinking "fuck my nigga I dont have $55 to pay for those bitches back cuz aint nobody gonna buy em", and tarzans thinking "fuck blood Jamal aint gonna pay a nigga back so I'm just not gonna buy my crack back from Jenashuan you feel"

Now the market has broke down and the Central Gang Banging Open Commite has to give out free money to all of them so they can keep buying and selling crack.

End of story. Now replace crack with Subprime mortages and suddenly you understand why the repo market melted down in 2008. Replace the crack with "Investment grade corporate bonds" and you understand why the market will melt down late 2019-early 2020. Hope you niggers learned something

[Anonymous No.16140068]

>>16140022
Jamal is the buisness who is making money off the actual asset not the spread. Tarzan would be a dealer or bank who is holding that security and charging a .5% spread on the loan, Jenashuan would be another bank or the fed who is also charging a spread on the loan. Jamal makes money when the assets appreciate to maturity, tarzan and jeshuan make a small bit of money by loaning to Jamal until his assets appreciate, so Jamal doesnt face cashflow problems with long dated maturity assets.

[Anonymous No.16140073]

>>16140045
>Fuck blood Jamal aint gonna pay a nigga back so I'm just not gonna buy my crack back from Jenashuan you feel

[Anonymous No.16140122]

>>16140068
I see now. Pretty good explanation here desu.

[Anonymous No.16140143]

i have read it but didnt get it. how do nigger understand anything at all

[Anonymous No.16140230]

Shiiet but my nigga, why do banks do this in the first place?
Surely they know how unstable this. Is the attitude just 'Oh we should do it because everyone else does it, and if shit hits the fan we can always just get bailouts from the fed'

[Anonymous No.16140285]

>>16140230
Bassically my nigga yeah. The actual assumptions are that an assets risk can be quantified, in this example lets say 1/100 crack rocks are cut with shit, they price in the fact that those crack rocks your putting up for collateral have a 1% risk to turn up useless, so you can get your overnight loan while waiting for those crack rocks to sell and the bank gets a small amount of money for taking on that risk. So supposedly they have it completely priced in for risk, when the risk adjusted returns start failing and 2/100 crack rocks end up being bad they start hemorrhaging money. Thats when the fed steps in and says "whoops our quantitative models could of never predicted this, here's free money so you don't go under"

[Anonymous No.16140311]

>>16139983
>So yah nigga Jamal bought 4 crack rocks last week...
Can you explain this?

[Anonymous No.16140285,1]

wow i love this site this is amazing 10/10 content . its like we know things before they happen

[Anonymous No.16140379]

>>16140285
How exactly are these investment grade corporate bonds going bad? Are the companies themselves failing?

[Anonymous No.16140542]

>>16140379
Yes, basically it heralds back to 2008 which we've never really recovered from. The fed always panicks durings recessions and drops intrest rates far too low, 2008 was no different with its 5 year span of 0% intrest in the aftermath. 0% was really special though, because it put corporate loans at around 5-6%, or lower then annualized retirement fund returns. The possibility of taking your pre-recession tchotky company and turning it into bassically a glorified collateral machine to leverage into higher returning assets became a real possibility. Leverage everything it owns, issue some corporate bonds at 0%, and invest it into a passive fund as the market ticks upwards.

This has led to zombie companies worldwide, Come 2017 the fed starts jacking up intrest rates and through all the different avenues including their bonds, this repo magic, these rising rates start putting pressure on companies that aren't actually making returns through buisness but through owning assets. These zombie companies are numerous and feed piece by piece into mega corporations. This is why I believe we have a bull market with mega caps that can have sub 10 PE's and tech companies with PEs of 25 plus. Bassically all these zombie companies are eating into corporate debt markets as they fall due to funding pressures from higher rates, yet the rating agencies are keeping them investment grade since they back absolute fucktons of collateral in these repo markets.

[Anonymous No.16140637]

>>16140542
But now the feds dropping the rates fairly low again right. Wouldn't that help?

[Anonymous No.16140648]

Back to /x/ retard

[Anonymous No.16140741]

>>16140637
Technically it should, in reality though it's like pandoras box, once a company has revealed it is very sensitive to asset fluctuations and intrest rates because it has no real growth coming in then it should become junk. Decay is also a problem, these long term loans these companies taken out have come due late 2018-early 2019 which funny enough coincides with the fed slamming the breaks on the intrest rates and the quick reversal. We didn't even hit historic 5% were supposed to rise rates after recession before that happens.

So generally while yes it should help, it means we have huge portions of these zombie companies that are very sensitive to shocks in the financial system, anything that hits them right could topple them over, like any sort of growth slowdown coming from trade wars, domestic slowdowns, ect.

The fed should be negative right now really if it wants to save this bloated system, I think theres some truth to trumps claim the fed is trying to hurt his presidency.
>>16140648
Lmao please, literally say anything intelligent and I'll stop posting. Go ahead, explain something to me i don't know about the markets.

[Anonymous No.16140762]

>>16140045
I try my best to stay away from this place then shit like this just keeps me coming back. Very informative anon

[Anonymous No.16140766]

>>16140741
OK so the super slow months manufacturing saw from summer to now will eventually hit them early next year. I wonder what will happen.

[Anonymous No.16140838]

>>16139983
based thread

[Anonymous No.16140890]

>>16139983
The crack rocks are worth $25 dollars in this system right?

[Anonymous No.16140891]

>>16140766
Yup, we saw this in 2016 too however though, slowing manufacturing employment ect, and when trump got elected the markets became very bullish very quickly, it might be shaping up to be something similar. The unknown factor is entirely what is going on in the Repo markets, what collateral is failing that is causing the spikes to +5% in overnight lending? By the fact that trump getting elected and pushing a 15% tax cut for corporations through I believe those problems in 2016 were directly related to the corporate debt markets as we saw the spread start to skyrocket from BBB and government. Since then its just gotten worse, I do believe the rating agencys are a one trick pony and are propping up corporate debt in the same way they did subprime which is causing this investment grade collateral to breakdown.

So yeah we will see, things are going to get ugly however

[Anonymous No.16140909]

>>16140890
Yup, they are worth 25$ but mature into $30, when you sell them, which is how Jamal makes profit

[Anonymous No.16140970]

>>16140891
So its going to be worse than 2008 when this all comes crashing down right?

[Anonymous No.16141044]

>>16140970
I believe so, I think fundamentally an incestuous service economy and finance cycle like we have in america is fundamentally unsustainable despite what Keynesians tell you. We in america finance our trade deficit with foreign investment coming into us based buisnesses that is denominated in US dollars with demand generated by our economy and reserve currency status acting as a floor. Corporate debt being a bubble is absolutely terrible for this flywheel of service economy pumping domestic buisness financials causing more foreign investment.

[Anonymous No.16141370]

>>16141044
Yeah that's kinda the conclusion I've come to as well. I'm nowhere near as well versed as you and many others on the finer details of central banking and the intricacies of how it plays into the economy, but I know that the fed and other major central banks have been doing some crazy shit that's never been tried in history to prop up the clear pyramid scheme that is debt backed capitalism.
It honestly scares the shit out of me because myself and most of my family wont make it when it crashes. We barely survived 08. I predict that society itself will collapse if it's any worse than 08. The structure of society has eroded too much in the last 10 years and even in prosperity it's been a powderkeg. When people start loosing their homes this time there will be riots and people will be held to account.
The only solice I take is that collapse is necessary to repair the social and moral decay that has infected the west.

[Anonymous No.16141558]

>>16141370
It scares me too anon, I don't know if society will collapse but I think the days of cheap population growth fueling economic bubbles might come to an end. Population growth takes more then just food really.

If it's any consolation I truly think just being here on this website shows you have what it takes to make it when things get tough. I know it sounds stupid, but I actually believe that, no matter how well versed you are in anything being able to stand on your own two feet and judge whats being said to you is an invaluable skill that we all hone here.

if you can take some advice, through all my learning specifically in finance it is clear to me there are a few people that punch far above their weight class in terms of controlling general world trends, I imagine many industries and pursuits you would find the same thing happening, a few people who bassically run the game. I mention this only because i have cause to believe these people are using cryptocurrency as a shadow banking system of sorts to create a new economy and try to perserve their wealth as things shift in the world. I would save what you can in spot BTC just so you can have a little wealth if shit does hit the fan.

[Anonymous No.16141660]

>>16141558
What impact do you think a major recession would have on crypto? I would expect the scamcoins disappear with peoples money but as far as bitcoin goes I'm conflicted. I see it as a great deflationary store of value, however one that is highly unstable and with limited current real world use. Would it act as it is now in Argentina and Venezuela and pump as people start using it in place of fiat, or will people look to traditional assets such as precious metals? If there were to be mass adoption, what would the inevitable government intervention that occurs to try to stop the use of alternative currency have on the space? Curious to hear your opinion.

[Anonymous No.16141775]

>>16141660
I see bitcoin replacing bonds worldwide, bitcoin will replace bonds as the risk free asset for the wealthy to hold World wide since instead of bonds following a governments total GDP via funding and taxes collected worldwide bitcoin will simply follow total wealth creation by the populations buying pressure. A lot like gold except mining subsidy will reach zero eventually giving it no inflation so zero risk. Traditional assets will be moved to blockchain simply for ease of access to bitcoin, when bitcoin becomes the global zero risk asset you will want to be able to trade equities with it on the blockchain.

So yeah, I agree shitcoins will go to zero but I think tokenization of assets including corporations equity and assets will continue so they can interface with bitcoin.

Government won't try to internvene, i think government will put its focus into taxation efforts more then anything since BTC will always appreciate any BTC they can collect from you now will be worth x10 as much in 10 years or whatever.

[Anonymous No.16141948]

>>16141775
Interesting. Wouldn't the lack of bitcoin scalability limit adoption on this scale? Would it be more likely that one of the bitcoin forks or another coin entirely come out on top once its limitations are reached? Or are the supposed limitations just a meme? Also, what do you think would happen to fiat if this scenario were to play out. Would it not become obsolete?

[Anonymous No.16142028]

Do you see a hyperinflation coming? With the Fed creating new money and velocity of money (really low now) potentially exploding?

[Anonymous No.16142093]

>>16141948
It might very well impact it, I cant claim to even have more then a clue of what the future holds for crypto, besides the obvious move I see from these people in finance moving towards crypto in general as an economic lifeboat like I mentioned. If I had to guess Bitcoin probably will be the coin simply because of adoption, I don't think the rich would mind having so many early adopters so long as they at some point have systems in place to ensure they will still be top dog in this new system. The early adopters will give them a pre-set base of supporters whos wealth is directly linked to propping up the crypto system.

Fiat might still be around depending, its just so useful for governments purchasing capabilitys. There's a hundred other ways to replace it though I do believe, personally I think we would see governments facilitating long term BTC lending as a means of gaining immediate capital, I.e. collecting a spread between a loan made with bitcoin set for 10 years time and the payments now

[Anonymous No.16142145]

>>16141775
> BITCOIN
LMAO U MEAN BSV

[Anonymous No.16142204]

>>16142093
Yeah that's why I figured that there would be some kind of regulatory pushback to stifle bitcoin, especially in this scenario, because of the danger it would pose to the hegemony of fiat. Without it governments would have to spend within their means or figure out another way to inflate their spending power.

[Anonymous No.16142294]

>>16139983
Do you know any possible triggers that could set off the fireworks?

Easy with crack rocks you know shits about to hit the fan when know one wants to buy any.

............. O SHIT COULD THAT BE THE TRIGGER NOBODY WANTING TO BUY INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS

[Anonymous No.16142309]

>>16142028
I don't know about straight out hyperinflation within the near future, but it is certainly coming while we are still young, maybe 5-8 years if I had to guess. Once this flywheel finance industry crashes we are looking at potentially billions in fiat worldwide flowing back into their home countries causing hyper inflation locally within a nation, m1 has consistently outstripped both demand and growth yet the fed is convinced there is no inflation meaning they are ignoring where all these dollars are being stored that will find their way home at some point. Because of the way investment banking is setup though I am still convinced once these dollars that started being exported in the 80's finally come home to roost they will not find their way into the asset markets as I mentioned earlier, which in turn will require the fed to produce even more inflation to bail out these frozen assets making real inflation just go ballistic

[Anonymous No.16142328]

>>16142145
STIFF

[Anonymous No.16142333]

>>16140648
Shill

[Anonymous No.16142350]

>>16142145
>>16142328
Goddammit is it so much to ask for 1 thread without you fucking pajeet subhumans shitting up the place with your fucking shitcoin spam?

[Anonymous No.16142364]

>>16142294
Bingo bango bongo my fren. If we are correct, and this is deeper then simply slight pressures on failing buisness debt, and IS IN FACT a degradation of debt across the board, WHICH is caused by corporate rating agencies misrepresenting a degrading corporate bond, THEN eventually these pressures will break through causing a forceful downgrade to junk for many corporate bonds, WHICH will cause a sell off and will freeze collateral markets for corporate debt, AND would cause repo markets to start going haywire.

Funny enough we have seen recent events such as legacy companies like ford having certain debt issuances turned from investment to junk in weeks, while the repo markets go haywire at the same time. Coincidence? Probably not

Yes sir, the crack is cut and people are starting to not buy it

[Anonymous No.16142393]

>>16142350
They are annoying yeah, fuck it though theres a small chance its just a newfren who sees something we don't. A very small chance, but a chance. I didn't see bitcoin as am investment oppurtunity when I should have, now I believe its going to take over the world, I'm willing to humor them. Who knows, maybe faketoshi has a trick up his sleeve. Once again unlikely, but the worlds a crazy place

[Anonymous No.16142434]

>>16142393
I've never seen an anon as based as you

[Anonymous No.16142438]

>>16142393
Good thing I don’t have any corporate bonds in my portfolio I’m 50% American and Canadian gov bonds

50% EM bonds Russia, Mexico, South Korea.
They should remain strong and stable through this and could actually appreciate through this.

Plus bonds are only 20% of the portfolio cause they’re yucky LMAO

Thanks Fern

[Anonymous No.16142479]

How do I not get JUSTed by this?

[Anonymous No.16142504]

>>16142438
Your welcome sir, no matter how much of a doomer I want to be I will admit there will be oppurtunitys to make a fourtune in traditional markets even if it collapses. I will say however I do believe this to be a systematic risk globally, as I mentioned there is a finetuned feedback effect going on in relation to service, aka consumer industry, and financing, consumer and corporate debt. If this breaks down because corporate debt breaks down and reveals the true amount of "growth" these buisnessea have been seeing since 08 then there is a very good chance it will systematically destroy the consumer base of america and topple many of the dominos that make up this system along with it.

>>16142434
We're all gonna make it, I'm anonymous and your anonymous

[Anonymous No.16142516]

>>16142479
GOLD
BITCOIN (maybe)
SWISS FRANK
JAPANESE YEN
STABLE COIN (also maybe)
GOLD
REAL ESTATE (if inflation)
UTILITIES
GOLD

And also gold

[Anonymous No.16142526]

>>16142393
Based and stiffpilled
So how hedged are you? What is your BTC/BCH/BSV/ETH distribution?

[Anonymous No.16142535]

>>16142434
Yes, for once op was not a faggot. It's been nice actually having an informative conversation. A welcome break from shitposting and constant spam. This is a rare thing on 4chan now days.

[Anonymous No.16142569]

>>16142504
What's your background? How do I get informed like this?

[Anonymous No.16142572]

>>16142479
Probably not a mind blowing answer to you lmao, but buy bitcoin. Like I said I can see a very fine line the world seems to walking towards this globally connected trade system where we can all reap the benefits of increased productivity and trade while still allowing for regional governments to have impact, your nations buisnesses will be creating wealth in bitcoin so as your nation becomes wealthy from its advances created by community effort all the rich in the world will get wealthier with you, by the nature of bitcoin. I could be very wrong, but this is where i see the current economic state being led like a horse. The carrot is bitcoin, and all nations own it so everyone decides where it goes, but providing legitament services and buisness plans will yield return of what they are worth globally.

[Anonymous No.16142587]

Commie FUD. Don't listen to OP, he's berntard.

[Anonymous No.16142594]

>>16142526
100% bitcoin right now, sorry newfren i will respect you could be right and wont try to shame you but i dont believe in it succeding personally.

[Anonymous No.16142649]

>>16142594
I'm a bit redarted but I'd like to shill you XLM. I think BTC is great but expect Steller to outperform it. LTC good alternative too

[Anonymous No.16142748]

>>16142569
I work in a hedge fund.

I couldn't tell you, this came from largely a prerequisite knowledge of how intrest rates were effecting the corporate bond markets in 2016 when i was focusing heavily on corporate investment grade debt and found a lot of people talking about buybacks and how fucked up a lot of small caps balance sheets were with bassically fake sheets propped up only by market valuation assets, this morphed into an understanding of how the federal funds rate started working when they introduced the upper and lower bound with intrest on excess reserves and finally today when the last piece of the puzzle came to me when I realized corporate debt can be used as collateral for these loans.

If i could sum it up, unique information is an undertapped area of the information that I play off of. Everybodys focused on large data, quantitative risk analysis over thousands of etfs, large scale jobs numbers, ect ect, but all it takes is two outliers to show the data can be systematically incorrect.

You have to find your own way anon, try and test until you get it right. Thats the best advice i can give, if you don't understand why something happens and can't replicate it then you cant systematically make good plays. I hope I didnt come off as conceited or anything, this is just how i see it. I use everything from bloomberg to zerohedge to 4chan sometimes to find information, it just takes time.

>>16142535
I enjoyed talking to you too anon, I'm glad you found it a fruitful conversation!

[Anonymous No.16142910]

>>16142748
What kind of career path did you take to get there?
Or what would one do to get to that kind of job?

[Anonymous No.16142981]

>>16142910
I became an accredited investor through flipping houses in the early 2k's, and more importantly in my opinion knowing when to dump it and go into bonds. I then bought a small book for wealth management and turned that into a career with Chase quickly. Finally got into a small hedge fund 4 years ago. Bassically you need 1 mil to be an accredited investor so you don't need to get degrees or certs.

[Anonymous No.16143143]

>>16139983
Pleas continue.

Also introduce a white guy into the story, let’s name him Dave, who goes to buy crack and gets into a pickle where he must perform oral sex on two of the black drug dealer males. They’d stand side by side for this and say such things as “yeah take all that black dick into yo mouf white boy”

[Anonymous No.16143216]

Great thread, OP!
This is exactly what I had in a lecture last week (master's in finance). Thanks for explaining it in different words. It was very interesting.
I hope we could get more threads like this. This thread was the first one that showed me that not everyone pro-crypto is a brainlet.
Thanks again for your contribution, OP.
You're making this board a better place.

[Anonymous No.16143255]

>>16139992
Pastebinned
https://pastebin.com/Rycp3CbD

[Anonymous No.16143360]

>>16143143
Nah bro cuz whitey is busy lending out his triple a Corp bonds to John at goldman, he aint got no time to get involved in the crack game and sucking nigger dick

>>16143216
Thanks anon, I can see this place being a juggernaut in the future and do my part to push it there. We're all gonna make it because we're the bizlluminati

[Anonymous No.16143687]

>>16141775

How can bitcoin replace any traditional financial asset when any bitcoins can be permanently hidden from any power on Earth via brain wallet?

[Anonymous No.16143738]

This is the best thread I have stumbled upon in a while thank you so much for the absolute kek of a read.

[Anonymous No.16143747]

>>16143687
Its on a public ledger though.
And anyway most people aren't going to go though the effort of buying bitcoin in person in cash or using monero etc

[Anonymous No.16143833]

>>16140542
You sound all smart and shit. Where did you go / what did you read to get so smart about the markets? Please help a brainlet out.

[Anonymous No.16143844]

>>16143747

Doesn't really matter if you say you lost your key and nobody can prove you didn't.

[Anonymous No.16143870]

>>16139983
Based OP this is a good thread.

[Anonymous No.16143883]

Today OP was based.
If you shilled a coin in this thread you’re a sub 60 IQ brainlet.

[Anonymous No.16143895]

>>16141775
Thank you. Subscribed to your blog. Please make more crack rock analogies.

[Anonymous No.16143922]

>>16143687
So, you used to be able to hold physical stocks anywhere you wanted. Lost them and they were gona like that. Thats a minuta problem in my mind that an economy will still function fine around. Thats also why I believe however governments will focus more on taxation in this crypto paradigm, if you cant issue currency you gotta collect it feel me.

>>16143738
Lmao glad you enjoyed it anon, was fun to write.

>>16143833
Thanks anon. You just have to keep looking and keep answering questions. I didn't even go to college and have worked some pretty good positions all around finance. There's always an answer to your question my fren, and eventually you will be able to answer your own questions.

[Anonymous No.16143925]

>>16141775
I hate to be that faggot in a based thread, but what do you think of LINK? Another shitcoin that'll get eclipsed by daddy BTC or does it have a future?

[Anonymous No.16143974]

Thanks, OP. Great thread.
Whoever says 4chan is all Pajeets and traps and faggots never met a based Anon like yourself.
Cheers

[Anonymous No.16144001]

>>16143925
Shut the fuck up and leave you braindead faggot. Not everything is about your shitcoin. What the fuck is wrong with You?

[Anonymous No.16144004]

>>16140542
>These zombie companies are numerous and feed piece by piece into mega corporations. This is why I believe we have a bull market with mega caps that can have sub 10 PE's and tech companies with PEs of 25 plus.
This is the fucking shit I've been looking for. Fucking dank. Perfect answer to a question I've had since mid 2018. Thank you for putting words to my gut feelings. Almost perfectly seems to circumvent overextended medium size business loaning that have been whispered about for about two years. Fucking upboated.

[Anonymous No.16144020]

>>16143925
Non mineable token pretending to be middleware. The top is in.
People are looking for any shelter for inflating fiat. Buy any mineable currency with fair distribution and you will make it.

[Anonymous No.16144116]

>>16143925
I think there's still plenty of value to spread around. I can see exactly why this board latched onto chainlink so hard, its an absolutely game changing idea with a clear cut value. I think it stands more of a chance then many coins on the market of making it long term. My one problem would be that it's usecase as a sort of store of value to hold over smart contracts seems to clash with bitcoins purpose of being value, but that is also not a huge problem, bonds and oil both exist. If i asked you wether you wanted 10 million dollars worth of bonds or oil it would boil down to what you want to accomplish in life really. Chainlink could be the same.

One thing i will say is that I don't think there will ever be a more evenly distributed coin then bitcoin to ever exist in crypto again. Almost everyone in america at least brushed up with bitcoin while it was sub 1k. Everyone poor to rich has had a chance to get a nice stack. It was built up organically and sustainably, and I think thats invaluable. I dont know if we will ever see another crypto where the creators arent at least conscious on some level of how they will become a billionare if their coin takes off.

>>16143974
Welcome anon! We're all gonna make it unironically

[Anonymous No.16144234]

>>16142504
What should I do with my 401(k) based anon? I have fidelity but always kept it in random index fund. Should I go 50% bear share index fund, 50% country bonds?

Also, have you read The Everything Bubble? Havent read yet, but arent Treasuries the thing to stay away from now?

[Anonymous No.16144300]

>>16142594
Okay, fair enough, but would you explain why you are a BTC maximalist? The default position is to hold all chains of each fork, yes?

[Anonymous No.16144446]

>>16144234
I'm sorry I had a long reply typed up for you and fat fingered the back button. So to shorten it, government bonds are a good bet as long as the system stays solvent, they represent 0 risk since the government can just print money to pay them back. If treasuries fail or are ever a bad investment your crypto is really the only thing that will matter. As for your allocations never go short, but do rotate into as much cash and short term government bonds as they will let you, minimum volatility index for the rest. We're near the top of something, even if its just a small dip and you save 10-20% on the downside buying the reversal then that will take years off your retirement account being funded. You could be fully funded at 55 and retire like a government boomer.

>>16144300
Holding for forks was a 2017 meme really, I do rotate my investments its only these next few months im planning to be 100% btc. Bitcoins actual value is in adoption, being sound money on a scale that can make austrian economics work in the modern age, and personally i do believe adoption is being manipulated and forced because bitcoin is how they fix this mess in debt denominated markets.

[Anonymous No.16144492]

>>16142572
I said this a couple weeks when the overnight repos were raised and everyone laughed at me :(. Glad to see a smart guy who actually knows shit about finance came to the same conclusion though, I’m just a neet. I really enjoyed reading through this anon thank you and the crack rocks had me kekking

[Anonymous No.16144595]

>>16143216
why do you fucking redditors all use exclamations and parentheses? be different

[Anonymous No.16144642]

>>16144595
>deriving a sense of uniqueness from the punctuation you use
fucking loser lmao

[Anonymous No.16144658]

>>16144595
Agreed! Here's my upvote! Happy cake day, u/mx7JvNgz!!

Edit: thanks for the gold, my first gold!!

[Anonymous No.16144698]

>>16141775
Don’t speculative assets take a shit when people actually need the money to buy food ?

[Anonymous No.16144788]

>>16144698
Yes, this is an analysis on bitcoin not being a speculative asset however, and instead the backbone of the future world economy. This is an analysis held up by the countless data points that suggest US treasuries should not be the worlds 0 risk asset and in fact might have inherit risks built in that might have become systematic as a side effect of this.

[Anonymous No.16144821]

>>16144788
But people are only holding bitcoin because they are speculating it will go up. If they need to sell to buy thing then btc will go to shit

[Anonymous No.16144873]

>>16144821
My argument however is that they are not speculating, rather they know bitcoin will go up and bitcoins will replace bonds. Bonds are just a speculation the us government will be in a state to pay you your bonds worth at maturity. That just happens to be seen as zero risk, bitcoin is just a one government accumulation period away from being seen as a 0 risk asset.

[Anonymous No.16144890]

>>16144873
Know or hoping? I’m not disagreeing btw just having discussion

[Anonymous No.16145001]

>>16144890
See at that point it matters what side the most money is on. I personally see the most money being positioned on the side of bitcoin is fundamentally a better store of value then anything the government's or corporations or commodities can offer, and as I said there's a large possibility its not even bitcoin that will thrive but another crypto.
When your wealthy you make money off of loaning money, its how the governments and banks make their money, bitcoin is a perfectly non-inflating asset meaning you don't even have to loan it out really to make money, as long as everyone else considers it valuable you are gaining money, which is why the ponzi fud in my opinion, but bonds are the same deal really, the longer you hold it the more valuable it is, fiat introduces the need for specific intrest rate systems however. So my opinion is that bitcoin is not a ponzi, and not speculative, rather its just a decentralized global bond backed by miners and holders. This is why it doesnt have to be a currency, it would be bad as a currency, its not gold however because it requires work in the form of mining yet the work doesnt yield more of it, but its in a niche where it serves well as a zero risk asset that would track global productivity simply by being valuable and pay out similar yields to bonds at full saturation because of this.

And yeah it's an important conversation to have, I can see a practical use for it in global economies and desicions like those arent made on a whim but on lots of people talking. This is just one form of that which i appreciate anon

[Anonymous No.16145070]

>>16145001
I agree with what you’re saying but I’m still50/50 on it being btc. What are you guts on xmr in all this? I have a gut feeling it’s going to have a role in all of this

[Anonymous No.16145100]

>>16145070
I haven't done my full due diligence on monero, so from a more retail point of view I keep an account with exchanges that have monero because I plan to rotate into it if I ever see or hear of anything like seizures, laws, account closures coming from the US government regarding crypto. It is my plan A if that scenario pans out in a legitament way, so take that as you will. I believe the road to bitcoin adoption will be very smooth so I don't anticipate that happening, but i do have a plan just in case.

[Anonymous No.16145125]

>>16145100
You mention in a post above there’s a lot of big players moving or are already in crypto. I feel like xmr would be one way to obfuscate a lot of shit. Idk. I too am lining every thing up just incase verything takes a shit and I gotta get out

[Anonymous No.16145146]

>>16145070
I think the transparency of BTC will be attractive to people wanting to remain law-abiding (or wanting to appear fully law-abiding).
XMR is more like cash. Yeah it's valuable, yeah it's anonymous, and yeah it has a purpose, but trying to move a lot of it sure is suspicious and attracts a lot of attention.

[Anonymous No.16145585]

very informative sirs
much thanks

[Anonymous No.16146069]

>>16144446
Awesome, thanks for retyping the response
Think I'll go ahead and do that then, cheers

[Anonymous No.16146346]

>>16141558
Fuck man you are based as fuck. Please keep coming to biz. Top tier threads like this, is why i come here

[Anonymous No.16146356]

>>16145100
I just want to chime in and say thanks. Really insightful read for a brainlet like me. Just to recap, to hedge with BTC seems to be our best bet. You've advised against shorting traditional markets, is there any other assets in that area that would fair well if this scenario plays out?

[Anonymous No.16146377]

>>16140068
The Fed will paper over the problem until they can't. They've started QE again, they can still rev up those printers even more than they already are. It could be another year or so til the problem is out of control.

[Anonymous No.16146477]

>>16142569
Read Zerohedge goy

OP has not told me one thing I don’t know. Glad he’s here to educate you on repo markets and zombie corporations.
Tell them about municipal bonds next op.

The way op is fucking all of you is by shilling BTC and not Ag and Au
Your all still gonna get fucked by listening to his investment advice.

[Anonymous No.16146509]

>>16144788
Lmao
Bitcoin does not creat value
Still a zero sum game.
Basing the entire world economy on a deflationary asset. CB’s would have to be brain dead to implement this.

[Anonymous No.16146523]

>>16146509
>Basing the entire world economy on a deflationary asset. CB’s would have to be brain dead to implement this.

Basic economics says as prices go down the demand for goods goes up. It may not be beneficial for CBs who want to print currency but for us consumers it is. We should take power from the CBs

[Anonymous No.16146525]

>>16146356
See OP
Your fucking over the brainlets with bad advice about what to do about the coming collapse of the everything bubble.

Buy silver and gold or stay poor

[Anonymous No.16146555]

>>16146523
Yea agreed, there will be no CB’s after this is all over. They are bankrupt themselves now and that’s kind of the problem. No matter what they do they are going to way of the dinasour.

Still limiting the entire worlds future GDP to a deflationary asset makes no sense and would cause a worldwide deflationary depression that would never end.
Fact being that only gold and silver can liquidate the worlds debt and bring us back to true capitalism and a sound economy.

The IMF, BIS and G20 will use the SDR first, not BTC. That will fail. Then we will return to gold/silver depending on who gets the jump first, west or east.

[Anonymous No.16146705]

>>16146477
I'm glad you know all of this. I think you need to read more arxiv and less zerohedge though.

>>16146555
>>16146509
Checked, but you show a fundamental lack of understanding about how world economies work. I assume when you say linking the world economy to a deflationary asset is dumb your referring to if currency was deflationary and the lack of investment that would promote? Cant inflate away debts yes. Bonds inheritely are supposed to be deflationary in a sense, as core CPI increases so do yields because governments must reign in loose money floating around the system, we saw that on a large scale in the early 80's when bond yields peaked at 15% annual, the absolute highest level in history following the absolutely breakneck 12% core cpi inflation in the same year.
The assumption behind bitcoin becoming a zero risk bond is simple, bitcoin will inheritely follow real inflation closer then any government or market mandated yield can ever provide. Period. This is the first asset you will gather up because it is an adjustable rate inflation protected bond guaranteeing to become more valuable as time progresses.
Now, your arguments dont make sense and for someone so militantly sure of themselves i would like an explination. 1, you believe bitcoin does not create any value, so my question would be what value is created by any or all of Gold, Treasuries, or Fiat, what exact value do those derive from that bitcoin would not be able to derive ever? And please, cut the asset producing crap we are not talking equities and value capture 2, you say a deflationary asset would "be stupid to tie the worlds gdp to", what exactly are you implying here? There is not a single asset that the worlds GDP is tied to as far as I know, Bonds aka debt make up about 200 trillion of it iirc but even then that is not all of it. 3, since we have deduced 0 risk assets are deflationary by definition and in practice, why exactly is it stupid to have those backing an economy? Cont.

[Anonymous No.16146750]

>>16146705
3 cont, as far as I see it, this is an open market problem, if debts are better off paid in a deflationary currency then an inflationary one doesn't this signify a fundamental problem with how we percive debt? You also show a fundamental lack of awareness for the arguments backing Kenysianism, in general I would think someone so infatuated with a literal rock to steal some FUD would certainly be more critical of why exactly a debt backed system is around in the first place, and would prefer to share the triumphs of precious metals backed systems rather then rant about how bitcoin would be bad for global growth. This leads me nicely into my last question, 4, How exactly will gold and silver eliminate all public debts and save capitalism in one fell swoop? I do wish to hear this one, such a scathing critiscim of bitcoins fundamental rothbard esque roots that clash with the tried and tested debt accelerationist system, but with a twist ending of reverting to the gold standar because... Muh debt bad? Boy, I'm on the edge of my seat awaiting what academic novelties shall be laid bare for me tonight to make this one work!

Really though, nice 5 replies trying to FUD crypto when you don't understand the fundamentals. Really joggin my noggin with how you figure that one.

[Anonymous No.16146839]

>>16144595
I've never been to R eddit your fucking nigger.

[Anonymous No.16146879]

>>16146705
You said BTC would be the “backbone of the world economy”
Yea I did assume you were implying btc would be used as a currency.

As a bond? Nevertheless a 0% risk free bond that tracks inflation? Garentueed by whom? Jamie diamond could swing the whole market with his dick.
BTC is purely fueled by speculation. You can use more electricity than Ireland to mine it like right now and that still does not produce value. Machines solving math problems to mine blocks does not create any value.

Value creates value. As to your question, bill gates created an OS and the personal computer and created trillions of dollars of value. Blockchain is valueable, the underlying technology. Btc is gambling. It will never be cosidered an investment grade bond. Not when the market cap of the whole space surpasses 1 trillion. Not ever. It’s permissionless. Who is going to guarantee your permissionless blockchain? No one. The heavily manipulated market run by bots is gonna speculate and that’s all BTC will ever be.

Gold has inherent value, take your pick, industry, labor, 5000 years of being money, not currency. Also we can always make more and we’re not capped at 21 mil units. There’s always enough to back anything you like. We could back every debt instrument in the world 100% if we wanted too. Not saying we will.
BTC is not making whatever device your using work right now.
Anyways all that matters is that it has confidence. Boom that’s it, you know it and I know it. The central banks are hoarding it. China’s hoarding it. Russia’s hoarding it. Iran’s hoarding it. The Dutch CB admits that it will be needed to reset the economy. BOE says the dollar needs to be replaced as the worlds reserve currency. So your imaginary “0% risk btc bond” won’t be backing the new one, gold will be. Wether that new reserve currency is on the blockchain or not it will be backed by gold

[Anonymous No.16146942]

>>16146750
I’m not arguing in favor of fractional reserve banking. Glad you can tell.
Fuck usery

Put you chips where you’d like OP. I’m sure that the ever so confident consumer will rush to put his money in a 0% risk free bond backed by electricity named bitcoin during the popping of the greatest debt bubble in human history

Also half the shit you wrote in both posts is irrelevant, I get it you don’t see BTC as a currency, whatever.

The G20 is still just gonna shit on your little thought experiment with a permissioned blockchain. Out of the two of us your the idealist.

Gold being money that has the ability to liquidate bad debt is not a naive concept according to the powers that be. It’s exsactly what they are planning.

[Anonymous No.16147114]

WTF!!! how on earth do niggas understand this?
Https://samtutorials.com

[Anonymous No.16148027]

>>16146942
im guessing thats why china is hoarding so much gold atm. im almost 100% certain they are still downplaying the extent to which they are hoarding gold, i bet its fucking way more than they report.

[Anonymous No.16148302]

>>16144595
>can't distinguish phoneposting from ledditposting
fucking newfaggs

[Anonymous No.16148324]

tldr of OPs posts;

He thinks bitcoin will become equivalent to government bonds not a hyperbitcoinisation scenario

Buy bitcoin, buy bonds.

I would also add, buy gold and equities are likely to have a good run in 2020 and maybe 2021 too, first three are more secure in a 5-10 year time span.

[Anonymous No.16149006]

The real question here is: "How do I profit from this OP?" The fuck do I do when the crack goes bad and how long before the unwashed masses catch on?

[Anonymous No.16149650]

28 y/o burger here, what can I do to prepare? How fucked am I

[Anonymous No.16149741]

>>16149650
>American
Good luck, buddy. Buy some European consumer stocks, bitcoin and gov bonds (no T bills).

[Anonymous No.16149764]

i think you all forget those same countries "hoarding" gold specifically russia and china are also mining bitcoin hard and have been for years. keep that in mind. also recognize the future will look very different from the past, it already does obviously, with it great shifts in tech, info, ideas, wealth, will transform the way world operates. maybe the powers at be will run back to a shiny "rare" star metal to value everything by. todays youth don't value things the same and it will be the new young cyber punk tech boys who envision our future, as they always do, and reshape how we view things. just a thought

[Anonymous No.16150014]

>>16149764
Very true. MIllienials and the generations following are already accustomed to 'digital' currency. A few amount of millenials spent our youth on MMOs, making us accustomed to the idea of an asset being entirely digital having some kind of value that people assign to. Zoomers are even more tuned in. You only have to look as far as Fortnite and hear kids screaming they want V-bucks (fortnite ingame currency) to know bitcoin/crypto won't be an alien concept (my little cousin recently said to not get him any gifts, and instead just give the same worth in V bucks). The biggest obstacle for crypto adoption is most boomers can't ever get over the "but it's not real! its all on the internet. There's no physical asset!". This won't be a problem for the coming generations

[Anonymous No.16150098]

>>16140068
holy shit, how is this even legal. it's all going to collapse.

[Anonymous No.16150375]

best thread on biz even a low IQ nigga can understand fractional reserve banking with some humor and crack rocks

[Anonymous No.16150561]

>>16149741
How much BTC? Not buying anything Euro related, continent going to sink itself with importing third worlders

[Anonymous No.16150710]

>>16140045
I work at the federal reserve and this is the best explanation I've seen

[Anonymous No.16150735]

>>16149764
>>16150014
Zoomers want Zbucks and you get off to a cyberpunk future. Therefore bitcoin will protect you during the coming collapse of the world economy. Got it.

Y’all are going to get fucked if your not holding PMs, hold both. Otherwise your going to be 99% wiped out.

[Anonymous No.16150787]

>>16150735
Get both. 40% gold, 40% btc, 20% cash

[Anonymous No.16150823]

>>16150787
How many Vbucks should I stock up on?

[Anonymous No.16151121]

>>16150823
100k suicide stack

[Anonymous No.16151137]

>>16139983
Nice blog post faggot. Just retumblred and unsteemed. Needs more meme lines but have some gold anyway!

Edit: OP messaged me asking to fuck his wife. What should I do?

[Anonymous No.16151960]

>>16151137
You know that niggers cant read

[Anonymous No.16152487]

>>16151137
Fuck niggers. It's the only way to profit off them

[Anonymous No.16152534]

>>16151960
Thoughts on Deutsche Bank?

[Anonymous No.16152637]

>>16152534
It's gonna go up.

[Anonymous No.16152642]

>>16152637
belly up?

[Anonymous No.16152701]

>>16139983
postan in ebin thread
thx op

[Anonymous No.16152737]

>>16152534
Someone in their equities research rips off their analysis and uploads it to scribd for free, I often just randomly pick one from a safe sector and hand it in when I have to give recommendations.

Beyond that, I'm completely out of europe, Deutsche is just a matter of time they got hammered hard in 08. It could definitely be the spark to set this off and the closure people remeber.

[Anonymous No.16152876]

>>16152737
We may see massive bail-ins before DB is officially pronounced dead. Not sur ehow long that phase in the meltdown would last.

[Anonymous No.16152954]

o shit I just found OP

[Anonymous No.16153274]

>>16139983
But does this mean mo’ money fo’ dem pogroms?

[Anonymous No.16153303]

Acually nice repo markets tldr op made me smile

Reading trough all this shit made Me realise why crypto space is SO fucked up to understand by all.
You can be world best economy analyst/hedge fund menager and tech illiterate
You can be coding jeasus and have no idea how anything in real world works
Also first and second usually have no idea how law system works and how shit is enforced.
Only fucking way bitcoin becomes world reserve curency or bond is if satoshi are fucking agencies and got backdor in it.
Chances are slim to none i guess.
You do realise noone can dispute chink miners can reorg chain today if they colude (but muh they would lose all money blahblah is not game theory you want to put your best on if world dominance is at stake)?
You do realsie if I find core devs and put gun to they head there can be 42 mil btc tommorow and how software works?

Everything you noticed about state of economy is based but deflaratory, unknown creator, planetary power hog peace of code, fuled by pure speculation and greed as “backbone of the world economy” is bullshit and pure hopium for brainlets here.

Btw all sad and done I really really like btc but man..

[Anonymous No.16153316]

>>16153303
mciffy

[Anonymous No.16153611]

>>16153303
Just look up what Satoshi Nakamoto's name means. Look at the Phoenix Coin economist magazine cover. Look up "How to make a mint: The Cryptography of Annonymous Electronic Cash" by the NSA.
Chances are: they invented Bitcoin

[Anonymous No.16153855]

So all of you niggas are shilling Bitcoin which is basically backed by hope and belief aka speculation when you have Chainlink right in front of you. If Chainlink will be the defacto oracle framework powering most of the smart contracts in the future(assuming massive smart contract adoption), then that means LINK is backed by something of value, not just muh hope. You want your smartcontract to connect to the outside world so you could automate your business processes to cut costs? You need Chainlink(node operators paid by LINK). Why would anyone put their savings into Bitcoin, backed by fuck all, if you have LINK which is backed by the decentralised oracle network? None of you retards can't answer this since you know fuck all about smartcontracts in general and only know about your boomer rocks and boomer bitcoin from some boomers YouTube channel.

[Anonymous No.16154133]

>>16150787
should we buy actual gold metal, gold stocks, or gold etfs?

[Anonymous No.16154645]

bump