>>15779917

Well nobody knows obviously. The scarcity stock-to-flow model is compelling, rises in price lag behind the actual halving date. Look at 2016. It took half a year after the halving for the price to reach it's previous ATH again. And then another year after that for the 2017 peak. Will it be the same 1.5 years for the 2020 halving? If so, that'd probably put us at 20k again at the end of 2020, and cycle peak around the end of 2021.

But then look at how the StF model stretches out with time as well. 2017 took longer to reach its peak than 2013. So I could see the 2020 halving take even longer to reach its peak then 2017. Maybe twice as long, in which case 1 year to reach previous ATH of 20k (mid-2021), and then another 2 years to reach the cycle peak (mid-2023). Perhaps this model would be more instructive if it was log-log, with the time axis also shown on a logarithmic scale.