/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.15632967]

Is the "second halving" anon from >>15628669 still here?

Ignoring your misuse of a technical term (as the halving is an actual coded event in the Bitcoin protocol, you are probably taking more about a supply shock event)...

Have you seen woobull's difficulty ribbon theory? It is very sound imo.

Basically, the premise is that asic mining is very cutthroat, so margins are minimal, as every miner is trying to undercut each other, basically a race to the bottom until their sells are barely above electricity costs.

And halvings cause miners with more electricity costs to capitulate, leaving miners with virtually free electricity remaining, as they are the strongest holders, hence causing a new bull run.

Now, I am a Bitcoin maximalist by heart, I believe in the 10 million dollar Bitcoin endgame.
But your argument about hitting the limit for Moore's law is actually bearish for me.

This means there will be less events that will cause weak hand miners to capitulate (as a new asic with smaller nm sizes being released would probably cause this).

That said, I still believe in the power of the actual halving.
Thoughts?

[Anonymous No.15632977]

I think this is a stupid waste of a post to try to shill some garbage idea by framing it as a reply to another post.

[Anonymous No.15633011]

>>15632977
>post to try to shill some garbage idea
No, I actually fell asleep with that post on my computer. Then tried to reply when I woke up but it was already archived.

Not trying to shill anything.

[Anonymous No.15633085]

>>15632967
Moore's law is false

[Anonymous No.15633207]

>>15632967
>That said, I still believe in the power of the actual halving.
Thoughts?

I am here but phoneposting, I been checking on asic resistant coins and they seem to trade insanely high given their inflation rate.

I will look into that theory I actually think it's bullish for bitcoin it will mean an inflation rate of less than 1% by 2022 in an ocean of quantitative easing.

[Anonymous No.15633213]

>>15632977
imagine thinking this.
>>15633011
you made a decent point. i'd love to hear out the anon from the archived OP.

[Anonymous No.15633254]

>>15632967
>This means there will be less events that will cause weak hand miners to capitulate (as a new asic with smaller nm sizes being released would probably cause this)

I been thinking about this too on asic resistant coins this happens as a result monero for example has a very high price for its low amount of movement done with it.

Of course under normal conditions this would be a house of cards as the weak hands could be scared to sell in a crisis.

But with bitcoin 90% of coins will be mined when we hit the Moore law I think it will be extremely bullish it will also decentralize miners as residential miners can compete due to lower electric costs than companies.

[Anonymous No.15633351]

>>15633254
Hell I just read that if randomX fails monero will adopt asics.

If that happens they will be forced to dump the price as asic miners would have higher costs dumping monero price to shitcoin levels.

This would also explain why monero is so stable their inflation rate is always decreasing and their miners only have electric costs so little incentive to sell.

[Anonymous No.15634390]

>>15632967
>ens as a result monero for example has a very high price for its low amount of movement done with it.
>Of course under normal conditions this would be a house of cards as the weak hands could be scared to sell in a crisis.
>But with bitcoin 90% of coins will be mined when we hit the Moore law I think it will be extremely bullish it will also decentralize miners as residential miners can compete due to lower electric costs than companies.


The supply shock should in itself pump up the price of bitcoin that the hashrate/mining doesn't capitulate. Got any hashrate data from previous halvings to back up your theory?

[Anonymous No.15634561]

>>15633207
>I will look into that theory
pic related shows it

Basically, the author noticed that the "difficulty ribbon" narrows/flips right after a:
1. halving
2. bear market

And right after the difficulty ribbon folds up, a bull run always occurs.

This basically shows that both bear markets and halvings reduce the mining profit enough to make weak hand miners (the ones barely making profit and thus selling most coins) stop mining, leaving only strong holders mining.

This actually supports your original post's idea of a "soft halving" (as seen here, the ribbon collapsing also causes supply shocks).

But my thought is that by no longer having additional expenses like having to buy the newest asic, this makes it harder for the weak hands to capitulate.
Or does it make them actually stronger holders?

Actually I think it doesn't matter much in the end, otherwise, asic release dates should have significant effect on the price chart.

[Anonymous No.15634856]

>>15634561
not to mention they can just use their old hardware to mine shitcoins like bch and sv instead of throwing hem on a garbage heap.

[Anonymous No.15635292]

leaving miners with virtually free electricity remaining, as they are the strongest holders, hence causing a new bull run...

how do you come from conclusion a to b there?

and do you really think weak hand miners will not jump to another SHA256 coin.

[Anonymous No.15635337]

>>15635292
nvm.>>15634561
had the same thoughts.

exept BSV is not a shit coin. But I digress

[Anonymous No.15635778]

>>15632967
I think you should lrn2english. It’s “fewer events” not “less events”

[Anonymous No.15635861]

>>15632967
>But your argument about hitting the limit for Moore's law is actually bearish for me.
I think it's best in the long run, because it will make mining more decentralized.
Just a prediction, I can't really explain how.