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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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15600847 No.15600847 [Reply] [Original]

What the outlook for leafistani oil & gas on monday?

They've been battered for years but geopolitcal pricing risk is back on the table, think a lot of oil and gas money is going to be willing to pay a premium for production cost in exchange for derisking politically?

also:
>USA has reserves to cover 37 days of production shortfall, will need to boost production anything past that
>USA net oil importer from canada
>large caps 60-80% off ATH

Plus on an energy invested on energy returned basis it becomes apparent that not oil is created equal. Its going to cost a lot more to pull 6 m bpd out of shale and tar than it did to pull it out of the desert, auxiliary industries (looking at you north american fracking sand suppliers) could be looking to boom as well?

>> No.15600915

Oh you wanted to talk about actual business? This is a digital currency board not actual markets.

>> No.15600931

>>15600915
Fug, guess I'll have to go ask the real traders on reddit :^(

>> No.15600935
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15600935

>>15600847
I wouldn't trade USD/CAD, as USD has been showing positive correlation with oil prices ever since fracking was a thing.
If I was to trade the worst petrocurrency ever, it'd probably be to long CAD on a cross pair with any oil importer.

>> No.15601010

>>15600935
I wasn't really thinking of trading forex mostly thinking of buying some cheap producers but if us has to export more to cover shortfalls won't USD feel some downward pressure? Cant export on high currency pairing for that long or maybe I am missing some key elements.

>> No.15601113

>>15601010
Export bolsters a currencies value, as people purchasing your export will do so in your currency; in other words they have to buy your currency to buy your commodity.
This is why I suggested trading CAD against a country that imports more oil than exports, as more and more oil importer currencies have to be sold to buy currency from exportinf countries.

>> No.15601207

>>15601113
>>15601113
Oh okay I understand now - but if asia/europe are buying USD to buy processed oil in USD, wont the US in turn have to buy CAD to buy more crude for processing? I don't spend much time looking at how currency trade actually works but this feels like it washes out to me

>> No.15601271
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15601271

>>15600847
It’ll cause a surge in price, no doubt about.
It’s been trapped between 50-60 for a while and hasn’t gone above 75 in years.
We’ll know tonight by 6pm ...might be a play to sell on the spike

>> No.15601312

>>15601207
Most definitely. The USA imports $100B+ of crude from Canada, this is why CAD is a petrocurrency. The USD will have simultaneous downward pressure and upward support from this news.
But CAD will have purely upwards support.
You want to trade a stronger currency against a weaker one, and the US dollar shouldn't weaken significantly. Maybe look into longing CAD against like RMB or JPY.

>> No.15601340

>>15601207
In essence, Canada will benefit from the Houthi attack and so will its dollar.
That's a good thing anyways.
Also, oil futures man.