/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.15490068]

Great Great Recession =====>> Great Great Depression thread
Bond yield curve now
Inverted from 2 year all the way to 30 year:

Bond yield 2-10 yr inversion:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/us-bonds-wall-street-monitors-fresh-batch-of-economic-data-auctions.html

Bond yield 2-30 yr yield inversion:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-idUSKCN1VI2DF


Corporations dumping stock:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/corporations-were-the-biggest-buyers-of-stock-during-the-bull-market-but-now-they-are-selling.html


Record corporate debt:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-debt-surges-but-investors-arent-worried-yet-140000257.html

Warren buffet record cash holdings:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjchqLE4PHjAhVaHjQIHTjoCpMQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Finvesting%2F2019%2F08%2F07%2Fwarren-buffetts-silent-warning-to-investors.aspx&psig=AOvVaw3MyLeS8pIvVh-avGqsJ91H&ust=1565301474958495

26 oil companies filed for bankruptcy in August
https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2019/08/15/26-us-shale-oil-firms-file-for-bankruptcy/

Chicago PMI hits contraction territory in August, drops to 47.5

Consumer sentiment drops to 89.8 in August
Michael Burry on current bubble:

Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago, Burry told Bloomberg News in an email. When the massive inflows into passive vehicles reverse, “it will be ugly,” he said.

“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,” Burry said. “This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”

[Anonymous No.15490080]

Raise your hand if you knew.

[Anonymous No.15490155]

CEOs selling stock at record highs;
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-are-selling-off-886-million-worth-of-stock-per-day-013249800.html

Jeff Bezos sells $3 billion in three days:
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-sells-1-8-billion-amazon-shares-why-2019-8/

Alan Greenspan says fed funds rate going negative:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/alan-greenspan-says-its-only-a-matter-of-time-before-negative-rates-spread-to-the-us.html

Silver and gold continue record multi year highs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-gold-silver-202411878.html

Auto Loan defaults at Great Recession highs:
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/13/auto-loan-subprime-delinquencies-at-2009-level-biggest-12-month-surge-since-2010/

Home sales continue to collapse despite the false claim lowering interest rates is a permanent solution:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housing/u-s-home-sales-tumble-as-prices-race-to-record-high-idUSKCN1UI1T3

[Anonymous No.15490311]

>>15490068
So just trying to understand. US national debt is owned by numerous groups/people including other countries Governments as well as internally by the social security trust fund etc.

The US keeps raising the debt ceiling to borrow more, when they do this is someone just adding extra 0's to a ledger for their liabilities. Effectively increasing the volume of money i.e. increasing money supply?

Then what are the factors that make this unable to carry on?

Also how is the interest rate that the US pay for their debt calculated?

[Anonymous No.15490320]

It's all just gay astrology bs, they're timing it for the end of this year because it's their plan to ruin everyone's Christmas

[Anonymous No.15490335]

>>15490311
>Then what are the factors that make this unable to carry on?
There are none, they'll simply crash the market on purpose. The whales often cited as evidence for the upcoming doom are just part of their game. They're in it for booze and sodomy.

[Anonymous No.15490384]

>>15490311
The factors making this unable to carry on are when the lenders realize there’s no way we will ever be able to pay this back and they’ll stop lending to us. Also if they dump the dollar as the reserve currency the fed will be forced to raise rates in order to keep a cap on the inflation, or its either commit to hyperinflation to destroy the dollar and wipe the debts away or default. The latter will never happen so the currency will most likely be chosen to be sacrificed.

[Anonymous No.15490643]

>>15490384
I read somewhere that other governments are willing to buy us debt because it will keep the value of the us dollar up against their own currency, so their exports are relatively cheap to US consumers.

The governments must realise that if they asked for their money the US would have to "print" money like crazy. I guess other governments won't ask for their money for fear that the US might invade them, also some countries try to dump usd as reserve but there's that threat for them too.

I just keep being amazed, every day I wake up and nothings happened. I start doubting everything I've ever learnt, heard, etc.

[Anonymous No.15490880]

>>15490643
Best insurance policy in the world is gold and silver. That’s it. If you believe debt doesn’t matter than stay in stocks and the dollar. If you think the day of reckoning will one day come then commit, own silver and gold. That’s all there is to it.

[Anonymous No.15490901]

Enjoy the next market all time high, retards

[Anonymous No.15490948]

>>15490311
>>15490335
>>15490643

thats the reason why US T-Bonds are considered risk-free. they can always print enough money to pay everything back, hyperinflating the currency. if the dollar gets inflated that basically means that everybody who owns dollar that moment will collectively pay the US out of its debt. the dollar then would surely be dumped as reserve currency and the US would most likely crash and burn (and get bought up by chinese investors who could get in disgustingly cheap).

[Anonymous No.15490975]

How will this affect the braphog market?

[Anonymous No.15491969]

>>15490901
Dumbfuck

[Anonymous No.15492141]

Bump

[Anonymous No.15492234]

>>15490080
Nice, thanks for this

[Anonymous No.15492375]

>>15490068
Most based and redpilled thread on biz

[Anonymous No.15492448]

With all this bad fucking news why are we still not seeing cheap assets? I'm mainly referring to housing. I know I'm not the only one with cash and Bitcoin on the sidelines just waiting to scoop up some residential and multi-units. I'm getting pretty impatient as I have my eye on a few. Only see stagnation in pricing... When is this party going to fucking start?

[Anonymous No.15492465]

>>15490975
people will want to stay in and fuck because dates will be too expensive

[Anonymous No.15492827]

>>15492448
It’s because the fed is still buying stocks and bonds, keeping interest rates low and they’re going negative. They’re pulling out every card in the book to keep this party going but in the end it’s all coming down hard.

[Anonymous No.15492907]

>>15490975
Women no longer able to pay for their own existence from bullshit made up busywork jobs will become dependant on men for financial support.
Stock up on STD test kits while you still have the means of doing so

[Anonymous No.15492912]

>>15490880
noone is going to buy your gold and silver, and you're not going to be able to buy anything with it. don't fall for the metal jew. SHTF scenario and guns, ammo, water, food, med supplies are what matter.

[Anonymous No.15492932]

>>15492448
It'll come. The full brunt of the trade war won't be felt until Q1, Q2 2020 that's when you'll really start to see shit hit the fan.

[Anonymous No.15493115]

does this mean the recession will last for twice as long this time (~6years?)?

[Anonymous No.15493131]

>>15492912
I didn’t say buy gold and silver in the original post. And it does matter. The CBs are hoarding it even the non Jew owned Chinese central bank, they have banned gold exports from the homeland.

[Anonymous No.15493143]

>>15492912
This has nothing to do with Jews or anything gold and silver are money and have been for thousands of years no amount of you not believing it will change that. I bet you’re a fools gold holder.

[Anonymous No.15493333]

>>15490080
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFIN! REEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

[Anonymous No.15493362]

>>15493115
It's not gonna be a recession, it'll be the great depression on steroids.
Recession happens when one country goes a bit shit, not even necessarily negative economic growth, just growth not fast enough to support itself.
Depression is when you have multiple economies simultaneously fucking themselves into the negatives all at once.
Look at every financial crisis, look at the countries with negative interest term deposits in the preceding years. Usually it's a couple, and usually those are the only countries affected.
Now look around. You'd be hard pressed to find any major economy in the world who doesn't have negative interest in their term deposits.
Everything's holding everything else up, like thousands of pieces of spaghetti in a delicate lattice structure just strong enough to hold up the weight of a car. Everything's fine until one breaks. Then all the others violently, simultaneously explode.
Anything with negative interest will explode.
Last time it was anywhere near this bad, 200 million men signed up for a guaranteed death just because some food and getting shot was preferable to slowly starving.
This is gonna make the great depression look like a fucking joke, and they're not gonna wait around for 10 fucking years to start a war to "solve" it.
It'll be the shortest, greatest, economic collapse in human history. And the clock's fucking ticking.

[Anonymous No.15493371]

>>15490080
got a job a year ago for exactly this eventuality. I'm hedged with lots of different income streams, lots of government benefits, savings in cash and silverchad. And now a job as well just in case. I'm more hedged than a hedge fund.

[Anonymous No.15493455]

>>15493362
Cool story bro, tell it again

[Swamp Jew No.15493471]

>>15490975
Food will be in short supply and very expensive so big juicy asses will be an extremely rare commodity. Very valuable if you can afford to keep it well fed.

[Anonymous No.15493477]

>>15490320
more like it's their plan to get Trump out of office since he fucked up too many businesses that were depending on him being president with the trade war

[Anonymous No.15493507]

>>15492448
you gotta wait for the crash to begin for that to happen, we're still prepping the bear for a little bit more

[Anonymous No.15493519]

>>15493362
And you wonder why you spend your weekends alone

[Anonymous No.15493549]

Been buying up bonds, bitcoin, and bullion. Feels good man.

Only regret is trying to short the market too soon.

[Anonymous No.15493557]

>>15493455
No worries!

[Anonymous No.15493600]

>>15492448
Unfortunately the boomer stock market moves at a 100th of the rate crypto does so we're looking at a year before any sort of happening

But that's also fortunate because it's going to coincide with and probably fuel the bullrun/halvening

[Anonymous No.15493606]

>>15493557
It's worse than ever because we refused to take our medicine for so long. The forgotten depression of 1921 fixed itself quicker than the "Great" depression because they didn't allow policy to get in the way. Letting everything go worldwide would be great for eliminating weak dysgenics too. Probably won't happen that way though considering the USA still has more juice left than everyone else. EU and China will fall first and money will flow into the states mitigating their collapse in comparison. Then deals will start being made to revamp the the rest of the global economy before the bottom falls out of every market simultaneously.

[Anonymous No.15493624]

>>15493600
Bitcoin seems to shit the bed and take all the alt coins with it whenever the stock market stumbles a little. What makes you think everyone will rush to pump crypto when they are panicking and looking for stable assets to park their money in?

[Anonymous No.15493636]

>>15493624
>Bitcoin dumps when the stock market does
What exactly makes you say that?

[Anonymous No.15493659]

>>15493624
z-score correlation between

BTC:BTC = 1
BTC:SPX = 0.14

fucking google it before you roll your face on the keyboard

[Anonymous No.15493681]

>>15493624
So are you going to answer or just shit all over the screen and run away? I would very much like to see the correlation between the stock market and crypto because dumbfuck boomers at work claim this and immediately change the subject when I ask as well.

[Anonymous No.15493688]

>>15493636
DJI X bitcoin on trading view

[Anonymous No.15493695]

>>15493549
Yup. The fed will lower rates to try and reverse the curve but it will only work short term if at all.

[Anonymous No.15493715]

>>15490901
Genius.

[Anonymous No.15493735]

>>15493606
>before the bottom falls out of every market simultaneously.
I assumed this would happen pretty close to the start. If it only happens after a year or two of everything but the US going to shit, after 12 fucking years of everything not having recovered from the GFC and just coating, fuck me, this'll be worse than I ever thought...

[Anonymous No.15493776]

How long do you guess I have to pull out of the stock market before we get a great recession or depression?

[Anonymous No.15493793]

>>15493549
Can someone spoonfeed a retard what this pic means.

[Anonymous No.15493807]

>>15493624
>What makes you think everyone will rush to pump crypto when they are panicking and looking for stable assets to park their money in?
Where do you think we are?

[Anonymous No.15494375]

>>15490643
Nothing happens becuase the time frame is too short. You can die a natural death and shit still goes on as it is

[Anonymous No.15494494]

>>15493362
Dope

[Anonymous No.15494511]

>>15490068
IMF here,

Give up your shitty cash. It's time for cashless systems so you Goys can't hide

[Anonymous No.15494596]

>>15493143
Why rely on rocks as a store of value?

[Anonymous No.15494605]

>>15494596
As a child, did you place more value on your rock or some stupid piece of green paper? Problem solved. Rocks = Rockefeller.

[Anonymous No.15494621]

>>15494596
you can't download rock

[Anonymous No.15494714]

>>15490068
>Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago
Burry here is talking about how Boomers are, I think just now as of last year, over the hump in terms of the bulk of their generation now being over 65

This means that possibly large swathes of Boomers will begin pulling their money out of retirement accounts like 401ks and IRAs which have for the last few decades been mostly invested in index funds, which in turn have essentially been buying the dip on every dip for the said last few decades

[Anonymous No.15494730]

>>15494714
the generation who also made all this debt&fucked up earth

[Anonymous No.15495105]

>>15490080
Can someone kindly explain this? Why is the max at 2% nowadays? Why is the yield so fucking low nowadays? Where did the profit go?

[Anonymous No.15495122]

>>15490311
If I understand this megabubble correctly, the US is loaning money to pay off their other loans. What this bubble consists of is credit and with no creditors you won’t be able to loan (the creditors give credit, loans).

Do I understand this correctly guise?

[Anonymous No.15495130]

>>15495122
With no creditors the US won’t be able to load debt to pay off debt and when people eventually want their debts paid they won’t be able to, leading to economic and social unrest.

[Anonymous No.15495280]

>>15493115
Recession is a bullshit term.

What's really gonna happen is the US and Western Europe are gonna realize they're second world shitholes no different than Brazil or Turkey and asset prices will readjust. Don't listen to these people saying "depression" or "economic downturn" because that implies a recovery will follow. No the US will just be the Brazil of North America. It already is, however homeowners still think we're old USA so they're asking first world prices for second world real estate. It has not dawned on them yet.

[Anonymous No.15495291]

>>15495280
you are a bit retarded aint u?

[Anonymous No.15495779]

>>15495105
Fundamentally, because of declining return on energy invested.

[Anonymous No.15496072]

>>15495280

lol why the brazil of north america? I don't get that comparison.

You saying Us/europe are just overinflated and shitholes like brazil or turkey are priced somewhat correctly?

[Anonymous No.15496512]

>>15493519
How do you lack so much awareness? You're on a business and investment board in a topic highlighting signs of a recession.

[Anonymous No.15496896]

>>15496072
Because demographics wise we are on par with Brazil lol. Absolutely they're overinflated. It's not worth going 300k into debt to live in a neighborhood full of beans and nigs. If I want to live around a bunch of beaners why not just live in actual Mexico for a tenth of the price?

>>15495291
Go buy real estate when the downturn hits. I am sure Tyrone and Juan will pay a hefty amount when the market recovers. You'll make hella gain.

[Anonymous No.15497191]

>>15492448
Housing is never going to crash again. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news lad. Real estate literally cannot ‘crash’ again. The influx of immigration and negative rates can keep the party going longer than you can wait. If I were you, I’d get something small and cheap now and pray for appreciation you can handle.

[Anonymous No.15497703]

bump

[Anonymous No.15497706]

We're all going to DIE! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Anonymous No.15497717]

Thred is 2 years early

[Anonymous No.15497996]

>>15497717
it's 2 years too late
it's gonna explode tomorrow

[Anonymous No.15498007]

You permadoom fucking clowns need to ditch your worthless af bonds, boomer rocks, and buttcorn and buy some stocks before you miss out on the next great bull market which is about to start

[Anonymous No.15499265]

>>15490643
"must realize" is a retarded statement. They know that. They aren't asking for their money since we keep servicing it. They can't ask for their money anyway- that's not how most loans work.

[Anonymous No.15499770]

I want to hold cash but what about the hyperinflation
I want to hold bitcoin but its gonna pop if the stock market pops
Bonds? Useless if hyperinflation
aaah