Explain what this means to a brainlet

[Anonymous No.15104471]

>After each #bitcoin all time high (ATH) we saw a downward difficulty adjustment. In the chart the lowest monthly difficulty level (blue) is reset to 100% .. and seems to be an objective start of the next bull run (green/yellow), with 100x opportunity. Just started a new run ...

[Anonymous No.15104527]

>>15104471
1. price rises, miners dump less as %, as they have constant costs in dollars
2. effective inflation rate gets lower, creating a feedback loop that makes it easier for the price to rise
3. eventually, new miners arrive as profits are high
4. new miners increase the hash rate and decrease profits for everyone, meaning miners now have to dump more btc
5. at some point, miners are already dumping 100% of their btc, but the price continues falling. The least profitable miners have to close operations.
5. hash rate falls.

The process repeats, if the price rises. It's not the principal cause of the rise.

The current run is not looking good for bitcoin. It's too slow. The ramp up at the end of 2017 was much, much faster. Hash rate is already rising.

[Anonymous No.15104579]

>>15104527
There will be too many people still buying BTC. The pump will come much later. Years. Most of the non miners will need to be out

[Anonymous No.15104610]

>>15104527
>>15104579
This is a suckers rally and will fall like the others

[Anonymous No.15104628]

>>15104471
buy blue sell yellow

[Anonymous No.15104672]

Willy Woo made similar observations about the mining cycle in this thread here, although I don't like his chart visual as much: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1156968533462413313

[Anonymous No.15104692]

Where can u see a daily updated chart like this?

[Anonymous No.15104735]

>>15104692
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-difficulty-ribbon/
It's not much to look at on a daily basis, just for roughly judging cycle position.

>The Diffiulty Ribbon speaks to the impact of miner selling pressure on Bitcoin`s price action. When network difficulty reduces its rate of climb, miners are going out of business, leaving only the strong miners who proportionally need to sell less of their coins to remain operational, this leads to less sell pressure and more room for bullish price action. The best times to buy Bitcoin are zones where the ribbon compresses. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages of Bitcoin network difficulty so the rate of change of difficulty can be easily seen.

[Anonymous No.15104791]

>>15104735
this is an interesting chart I've never seen before thanks for sharing

[Anonymous No.15104806]

>>15104527
Of course you cant compare it to 2017, that's 2021.

[Anonymous No.15105088]

So do we expect lower peaks in that chart since miners will react quicker to the market cycles and then cause the resulting cycle described in >>15104527

[Anonymous No.15105114]

>>15105088
The lower peaks come from the fact that BTC's value cannot gain millions of % like in 2010/2012 forever.

Eyeballing it, the next peak would be 200% or 400K but take a couple of years.

[Anonymous No.15105163]

Miner input gets less and halvings happen.

[Anonymous No.15105279]

bump because this is one of the few good threads right now

[Anonymous No.15105547]

>>15105114
>200%
>400k
Brainlet

[Anonymous No.15105566]

>>15105547
Wanted to write 2000%, my bad

[Anonymous No.15105666]

So its the (((miners))) who control the price, who would have guessed!

[Anonymous No.15105668]

>>15104610
a suckers rally for what? the jan. 2017 boom? that was 2 and a half years ago..

[Anonymous No.15105679]

>>15105666
influence not control, all the miners that capitulate don't exactly feel in charge

[Anonymous No.15105705]

>>15105666
dumb satan
what it means that even the miners have to get rekt before we can moon again
now that is complete

[Anonymous No.15105709]

>>15105679
>>15105666
No miners are price takers, if they dont sell they go out of business.
Its the (((exchanges))) who control the price

[Anonymous No.15105765]

>>15105709
Wrong, miners don't sell all their BTC and certainly not at once. They'll tell you they time the market too. Exchanges more often don't influence price, they're either too small or stick to the middle man. Big exchanges have more to lose by manipulating.
>>15105114
This what I see too
>>15104806
So many websites compare BTC 2017 to BTC 2019. They know they're comparing opposite ends of the cycle. Start of bull run 2019 end of bull in 2022, because it's cycle is elongating for some reason

[Anonymous No.15105816]

>>15105765
>exchanges dont influence price
I only need to point you to tether/bitfinex, but you can stay retarded

[Anonymous No.15105887]

>>15104471
Guy who make this also wrote a great article back in March titled "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity" that is worth reading in my opinion.

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

*continuing the article blurb in the attached pic:
>What is very interesting is that gold and silver, which are totally different markets, are in line with the bitcoin model values for SF (stock to flow ratio). This gives extra confidence in the model. Note that at the peak of the bull market in Dec 2017 bitcoin SF was 22 and bitcoin market value was $230bn, very close to silver.
Because halvings have such a big impact on SF, I put months until the next halving as a color overlay in the chart. Dark blue is the halving month, and red is just after the halving. Next halving is May 2020. Current SF of 25 will double to 50, very close to gold (SF 62).
The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000. That is quite spectacular. I guess time will tell and we will probably know one or two years after the halving, in 2020 or 2021. A great out of sample test of this hypothesis and model.

Interesting to remember that while bitcoin is called digital gold, it does not yet even have the stock-to-flow ratio that gold has which made it so valuable as a money in the past. It will be close to having as high a SF ratio after the halving.