/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.14727086]

If any of you guys like to make bond plays its almost time. The Fed is going to be pushing "good" economic news like the jobs growth the other day. 10-20yr yield will rally up to 2.3-2.4 probably by July 26-28, after which the fed will announce a .25 cut and the yield will rally fully to 2.5-2.6. From there it will start tanking and we are going to head negative on rates this time folks. The top is 2.5, buy as soon as yields hit 2.5 if you manage to pull this off on the longer term treasuries you are looking at anywhere from 20-35% gain if you sell the bottom which I predict will be -1%.

[Anonymous No.14727184]

uh what

[Anonymous No.14727230]

Lmao imagine buying bonds when you can get a 20x from holding silver

Kys idiot

[Anonymous No.14727242]

>>14727086
so what coin should i buy??

[Anonymous No.14727269]

Hmmm...

[Anonymous No.14727270]

>>14727242
>>14727230
>>14727184
the absolute state of /biz/

[Anonymous No.14727327]

wtf are you talking about. Why would I sell a bottom

[Anonymous No.14727355]

nice offtopic thread

this is /crypto/ and /link/ board

now fuck off to some boomer forum

[Anonymous No.14727377]

I don’t understand why you’d play bonds when you can buy gold and silver

Someone explain it to me

[Anonymous No.14727482]

>>14727327
Yield moves inverse to bond price. When the government will issue you a 0% bond at 1000 dollars that means your 10yr 2% bond trades at a premium of 1200.
>>14727377
Because gold bump comes after treasuries bottom. Sure you can bag hold gold until the free money starts flowing, but you could also make a bonds play and get more money to buy gold like people who actually make money do.

[Anonymous No.14727631]

>>14727086
the fuck? that chart looks too easy.
Also what is that volatility in the fed funds in 1996-2000?

[DarkTrip !nNThBA7CKU No.14727703]

>20% gain

you can 10x in 5 years in criptoe

gtfo idiot boomie

t. self confessed boomie idiot who used to work in the city

[Anonymous No.14727745]

>>14727086
Bumping non crypto thread because reasons

[Anonymous No.14727875]

>>14727703
I am invested in crypto yes, this thread is clearly not ment for you though if you have no reason to invest in bonds.

[Anonymous No.14728796]

>>14727703
>thinking percentage gains matter if you can predict the direction
>what is leverage
gtfo retard

[DarkTrip !nNThBA7CKU No.14728820]

>>14728796
>what is liquidation
gtfo retard

[Anonymous No.14728874]

>>14727482
I would rather keep playing the shitcoin casino until then. Returns are far far better if you know what you’re doing

There’s literally never a reason to buy bonds unless you’re a geriatric

[Anonymous No.14729630]

>>14727086

Nice OP. Now were talking....

Explain to me what the hell happend in the bond market in the last recession we had?

Normally Bonds provide an alternative to Stocks when times become uncertain about economic conditions.

But in 2008 we saw the debt bubble CRASH like no other and imo that was the market putting debt in fair value.

So how will the Debt be a safe play in the next market bust?

[Anonymous No.14729790]

>>14729630
>Normally Bonds provide an alternative to Stocks when times become uncertain about economic conditions.
Only if you trust the government to not fuck you over. And *newsflash* no one does that anymore.

[Anonymous No.14729850]

>>14729630

The problem was (and still is) that U.S lead central bankers are getting the Treasury (and foreign counterparts) to federally back subprime loans (bad debt) as safe secure investments. This means that investments that would normally be risky artificially have their risk reduced and investor confidence in them raised. The problem being that corporations will then collaterize their companies value in subprime loans and when those loans go bust everything falls apart. The subprime loans during the 2008 financial crisis were primarily in the housing sector, but the practice hasn't changed and federally backed subprime loans can be found in many sectors. (This only but one method they use to interfere with the market)

This is basically another form of central planning and the government is outright lying about economic performance just like the U.S.S.R did. Now, don't get be me wrong I understand the difference. The Soviets did this in an attempt to equalize and grow the economy and modern bankers are doing it to prop up profits. Regardless of the motive the end results will be similar.

Anywho >>14727086

OP, what are your thoughts on the Eurozone? Do you think they'll fall further into deflation before our crisis starts or will America take the plunge first?

[Anonymous No.14729916]

>>14729850

I should amend this post. Fully disclosing here. I'm a left market anarchist and don't think all central planning is always bad. Just mostly bad most of the time. For example, I'm a fan of sovereign wealth funds as they work with the market more than against it but are still a publically owned asset that disenpowers both the state and megacorps alike while empowering the people. Didn't want anyone misreading my post as a justification for modern capitalist economics.

[Anonymous No.14730071]

>>14729916
what's a left market anarchist

[Anonymous No.14730605]

>>14730071
https://c4ss.org/market-anarchism-faq-2

tl:dr I believe in the virtue of the market without capitalism

[Anonymous No.14731244]

>>14729850
Nice, your on the ball anon. I think the euro is going to kick start it honestly, its a big game of hot potato right now for where capitals going to flow out first, I think they pulled the trigger far too early for negative debt and its going to bite them in the ass. I mean look at Greece's bonds, a country that went bankrupt not even 7 years ago already has 10 year yields yielding as if it was more risk free than US housing, euro is going to get fucking rekt honestly. Im anticipating wether China has a trick up its sleeve to have capital flow back in but it looks like they might not, although they have a ton of room for restructuring looking at the bank take over that happened last month whereas US banks bassically would have to raid senior debtors at this point.

I agree with soverign wealth funds by the way, theres one in Norway that fascinates me honestly. It holds like 2% of all equitys in the first world, its economic and political weight is interesting to look at. They want to move more into energy, renewables in particular right now.

[Anonymous No.14731381]

>>14729630
Thats a very real risk and your right. Thats the lie that our system is built on, that treasuries are 0 risk when in fact they are not. If bonds crash though, and I personally do think we will see a huge bonds crash that wipes out our economic system, then we are all fucked though. This post is a point im making from within the framework of the game however, assuming bonds stay 0 risk the smart bet right now is to wait until 2.5 yield is reached then buy in, but yes I personally invest in crypto because I do have good reason to believe its the only hedge against a collapse like that which is likely. But within the framework of the game this is what you should do because we can only assume the game will continue, position yourself to be hedged from all sides for it but dont assume it will happen.

[Anonymous No.14731420]

>>14727230
retard hes basically telling you to short bonds

[Anonymous No.14731567]

>>14731244

Those mirror my thoughts almost to a tee. I've been waiting for Deutsche Bank to become insolvent for a while now, but they always seem to be able to pull in more capital right at the last minute.

As for China I feel like as a last resort they could start dumping U.S debt onto the open market which while destabilizing the world economy more might prop them up a bit. Bank restructurings are a good tool too I agree. It may not be enough though, time will tell.

I'm really excited to see what comes out of the coming failure of this economic system. The optimist in me hopes it's more human centric because otherwise I don't see how we'll deal with the climate crisis. The realist in me sees a mix of reform in some places and rising authoritarianism in others. The pessimist in me sees a neofuedal economy arising if the multinationals maintain control but their are few jobs for a sustained period of time.

[Anonymous No.14731719]

>>14729850
Incoming crash when? Just before the next presidential election?

[Anonymous No.14731741]

>>14727270
My sides

[Anonymous No.14731913]

>>14731719

I'm not a prediction man in the short to meduim term because predictions in those timeframes are very difficult to make with any accuracy. With that said. I think a crash in America specifically is unlikely until after the election because it would make Trump look bad if it happened before. His administration, like any other administration will do their best to prop up the economy until the election is over.

I also don't think collapse is always an event, it is often a process. We won't wake up to a completely broken economic system. The recessions will get worse on average, maybe the next one will be a proper depression or panic. As they get worse society will change in response to them and we probably won't know the change is complete until it has already come to pass.

[Anonymous No.14732415]

>>14727086
Wow, that's really amazing! Can I do a 300X with that like I can with Chainlink?