"Muh technical analysis" Helping newfags

[Anonymous No.14478906]

(1/2)
Reminder that TA is worst than astrologoy. It's literally for sub 110 iq brainlets.

>Perhaps you seek to imply these “managers” using the glorious technical analysis earn a higher rate of return. This is incorrect. Did you know that 86% of mutual funds manager failed to beat the S&P500 in 2014? That’s right, these idiots with their stupid charts didn’t stand a chance against “buying and holding” despite all their “reverse bat harmonic indicators” or whatever bullshit is relevant these days.

>And hedge funds? Since the bull market began in March 2009, the critics will point out, the average hedge fund in the Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index has gained an annualized 8.5% through April 30, versus 23% for the S&P 500, assuming dividends were reinvested. Over the past 10 years, even a conservative portfolio that invested just 60% in the S&P 500 and kept 40% in bonds still outperformed the average hedge fund.

>b..but what about this one guy I knew who made millions?!

Pure luck:

>Let’s take 10,000,000 people trading using technical analysis at the beginning of year 1.

>On year two, 1,000,000 traders will have tripled their money. The rest will be broke or will have lost a significant portion of their capital

>On year three, 100,000 will have tripled their money. The rest, again, lost a large part of their capital and stopped trading.

>On year four, 10,000 will have tripled their money.

>On year five, 1,000 will have tripled their money.

>On year six, 100 will have tripled their money.

>On year seven, 10 will have tripled their money.

>On year eight, 1 will have tripled their money again. If he started with $10,000, he now has $21.8M dollars

>Do you see where I’m going? The one guy at the top ends up in your “list.”

[Anonymous No.14478931]

>>14478906
(2/2)
This is called the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, or most commonly known as the Survivorship Bias.

You have, basically, millions of brainlets playing roulette. Most of them lose, you forget about them and then proceed to talk about the wonders of the roulette, and your new "technical analysis" on how to bet on the right number 70% of the time. It's pure bs.

>b..but muh crypto is different than boomer stocks.

It's not, it's basically worst. Because most cryptos go to 0 eventually. At least in boomer stocks you are playing with real companies.

This is why you'll see one random guy in /biz/ talking about his super ability to trade. In this case there are 5 options:

1. He is lying.
2. He doesn't realize he would've more money by holding solid coins.
3. He is barely breaking even.
4. He is making some money because it's a bull market (everyone makes money).
5. He actually traded successfully because of sheer luck (roulette), and thinks he has some "special ability" to trade.

Do not fall for technical analysis fags. Everyone who talks about muh TA is bullshitting you.

Thank you.