/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.14412659]

resistance too strong, downward trend will continue. do NOT buy here.

[Anonymous No.14412705]

>>14412659
visit of 8k. then 100k eoy.

[Anonymous No.14412752]

>>14412659
now tell me
is there any
I mean ANY
ANY AT ALL
rationale concerning "resistance" and the dreambars you just drew

[Anonymous No.14413025]

>>14412752
It's a reference point. Decisions are made based on what price action does around structure (trend lines, support/resistance etc). If he chucked in some Greek Alphabets and some Regression Coefficients, and called "Quantitative Finance", you wouldn't be questiong it.

[Anonymous No.14413103]

>>14413025
that trendline has 2 days worth of datapoints. are you really this fucking retarded? only long term outlines should be used, what OP is doing is pulling a 'corrolation' out of his ass.

[Anonymous No.14413120]

But I already bought on break-out. Reeee

Should I hold?

[Anonymous No.14413135]

>>14413103
Trends occur on all time frames.

[Anonymous No.14413163]

Zoom out. What about the support line it’s about to cross? You know the one that’s been around for much longer than that downward trend

[Anonymous No.14413188]

>>14413135
This

[Anonymous No.14413203]

>>14413163
It only matters which trend is stronger, not older.

[Anonymous No.14413296]

>>14413120
Edit: I managed to get out at break even. Bulls have generally been really good at pushing price up at the last possible minute before hourly closes. But yeah, I'm out. Looks like it was a false breakout

[Anonymous No.14413315]

>>14413025
whose decisions? who's to say people are going to see that graph and make the same decision, or that the people making the decisions will see it at all. remember, each of those candles represents the independent buying and selling decisions of millions of people. lines on a chart are not going to tell you anything about what those people will do in the future, especially given most people don't even know what they themselves will do in the future. """technical"" """analysis""" is a bunch of superstitious nonsense akin to tarot or I-ching.

[Anonymous No.14413324]

Is it a down trend or a bull flag?
Why a dilemma.

[Anonymous No.14413329]

see you at 13k

[Anonymous No.14413347]

>>14413188
>>14413135
the shorter the timespan, the more inaccurate the trend, retards. and what would even be the reason for the dump. and don't give me rando sells shite, last year was due to FOMO tards panicking and we don't even hit real fomo yet.

[Anonymous No.14413358]

is this a joke

[Anonymous No.14413401]

>>14413315
Honestly, you just don't get it anon.

[Anonymous No.14413451]

>>14412659
way too steep no way it hold
still going down tho

[Anonymous No.14413494]

>>14413315
>>14413347
Just buy hold and something, if that's what you're comfortable with doing. I've spent years on /biz/ arguing with people about TA. I used to even post screenshots of my Dow Jones trades on here, and once had some one who called themselves a "Finance PhD" say I was "story telling" as I showed how traders where fighting over the 1min time frame's 200SMA. I realize that people like you don't want to discuss things, you just want to argue.

You have your mind made up about Reality, so be it.

[Anonymous No.14413539]

>>14413494
cool. I am listening

[Anonymous No.14413557]

>>14413401
wow that really explains things. you sure told me.

maybe you can tell me what the mechanism is that allows you to know the future decisions of millions of people based on past prices. I'd be interested to know how that works.

[Anonymous No.14413682]

and it's gone

[Anonymous No.14413771]

>>14412659
limit orders are in

[Anonymous No.14413792]

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[Anonymous No.14413873]

>>14413494
TA works.

I made a nice ~10% gain since Saturday.
I heard bitcoins were rising when they hit $7,000. I saw the chart and decided if they hit $10,000 I’m buying to ride the bull trend.

Buy in at $10,800 Saturday morning.
Ride it up to peak.
See the reversal.
Exit most of my position Wednesday to lock in some profits after the clear reversal, exit the remainder at $12,050 this morning when it was clear this was likely to keep falling.

TA works guys.
When you’ve watched the markets long enough it becomes obvious, almost telegraphed.

With crypto you’ve got whales and tether and pimp and dumps and all sorts of stuff that makes it a lot more volatile. You have to be tuned into the fundamentals and recognize fake news.
Fundamentals ultimately win and technical analysis helps find entries and exits. When fundamentals and technicals align, predictability is high.

[Anonymous No.14413908]

>>14413792

[Anonymous No.14413931]

>>14413873
no, that's just called lucky guessing. some people make money playing roulette too but that doesn't mean they knew what number was going to come up next by studying past numbers. TA is basically believing you can predict the next spin by looking at past spins

[Anonymous No.14413986]

>>14413315
Not analysing people, analysing "the market"...

[Anonymous No.14414210]

>>14413539
I'm currently doing a lot of demo trading in forex. Taking me a while to understand things like the Correlations and how to Scale in/out of trades. Not currently trading the Dow at the moment.

[Anonymous No.14414294]

>>14412659
get FUCKED.

[Anonymous No.14414334]

>>14413931
Not when it’s backed by market fundamentals.

[Anonymous No.14414634]

>>14413557
It doesn't allow you to KNOW the future decisions of millions of people, just make decent estimations that average out to profit in the end. It's hard to explain and hard for most people to grasp, hence your confusion.

Basically it begins with a valuable asset and a trend. If you know that something is trending upwards in value, you'd like to own some right? Well how do you determine if something is trending? There are different ways to do it.. mainly market structure and moving averages. Trends occur on all time frames, but shorter time frames are less reliable because anyone with a bit of money can simply buy whenever they want and move price around, and as you said, you can't predict the something like that.

[Anonymous No.14414645]

>>14412659
are XBT bitcoin futures?

[Anonymous No.14414659]

>>14412659
What part of "tether will print more money forever" do you not understand?

[Anonymous No.14414810]

Where do your trends place the bottom of this dump at? I've got my eyes on the 7k - 8k range.

[Anonymous No.14414836]

>>14413873
That's not "TA."

That's you looking at a graph, having a hunch, going with the hunch, then going by feel from there, and getting lucky that you were able to ride the upward swing long enough to have time to exit with profit.

There is nothing "technical" about what you described, and there's not a single technical analyst in March who was predicting that BTC would start going apeshit in May and shoot all the way to $14K within a couple of months.

The whale who dumped at $13,800 yesterday, which is what started this halt (or reversal if it turns out to be that), could have just as easily dumped an hour after you entered at $10,800, and you would have been rekt before you had time to sell.

All markets are completely unpredictable. A century of studies attests to this. People just end up being right by coincidence often enough to carry the self-serving illusion that they can time it.

[Anonymous No.14414893]

>>14414836
black-pilled an reddit-spaced

[Anonymous No.14414912]

stop

[Anonymous No.14414959]

>>14413873
Dumbfuck bragging about buying at 10k instead of 7k

[Anonymous No.14414961]

>>14414836
This.

[Anonymous No.14415179]

>>14414836
It sounds like you think TA doesn't work because it's not 100% accurate. That's the wrong way to see it. First of all, TA without risk management and a strategy is useless, that's how you protect yourself from the unpredictable events in the market, which obviously happen, TA doesn't deny that. Now, that being said, there are many aspects of what's called TA that are certainly bullshit, and most people don't use TA correctly, but if you do, it's a great tool that can help you make better choices than someone who truly believes there's a 50/50 chance the price will go up at any moment.

[Anonymous No.14415320]

>>14414810
I see resistance around 10k or 9900 if this is not the bottom.
You can see who is controlling the market by watching the volume patterns and right now big bears are in control and fighting them is futile.

[Anonymous No.14415324]

>>14415179
It's not "TA doesn't work, so it's a 50/50 chance". It's "TA doesn't work, so with it you don't have a better guess at the price action then without it".

[Anonymous No.14415371]

>>14414836
Yeah sure you can’t predict rough whales but you can see where institutional investors enter and exit by watching the volume. And just trade along with their patterns.

Volume doesn’t lie.
Volume volume volume.

[Anonymous No.14415376]

>>14414810
5k

[Anonymous No.14415388]

>not even half a year away from halving
Gotta be an absolute brainlet to risk selling here

[Anonymous No.14415390]

>>14414836
This, unless you are some kind of whale elite, you are better off just finding good stocks/coins and HODL

[Anonymous No.14415407]

>>14412659
baby's first TA

[Anonymous No.14415555]

>>14415324
Then I must have been lucky that most ascending triangles and H&S patterns I've seen turned out the way TA predicts? Or that price appear to move with more momentum whenever support or resistance levels are broken? You think people who know about these things have the same chance as someone who doesn't know about chart patterns or support/resistance levels? I mean, we are playing with our money, we are paying attention. And I believe there have been people who have analysed thousands of these patterns and shown that they can provide better odds. I do agree that indicators tend to be more on the BS side, where people will see what they want to see, but I think TA can definitely give you an edge.

[Anonymous No.14415602]

>>14414810
its not possible to pick bottoms using a trend system.

[Anonymous No.14415813]

>>14413135

There are no such thing as a time frame in the first place.

All this fucking bullshit is an attempt to rationalize the past actions about causality of which one has no idea. This shit will be flawed by definition, no matter how sophisticated model, which has been taken out of one's asshole.

Consider this: there is only ONE (single, 1) real set of causal factors which produced an outcome captured on a chart. And infinite many wrong sets. not True = False, faggot.

So, all this is bullshit. The only real thing there, is bunch of people and algos which make decisions.

The whole thing is stochastic by definition. Past actions does not influence the future ones. Sets of real factors do.

[Anonymous No.14415827]

>>14413792

[Anonymous No.14415839]

>>14415320
we are hitting resistance literally right now. will probably bounce up before going down to 10k until the end of the day

[Anonymous No.14415910]

>>14412705
I can’t see it at low 8s
I’m buying if it hits 8
Said the same thing about 6k two weeks ago
I think will ping pong 10-12k
Let the whales sell and eat
Back to the road to 200k

[Anonymous No.14416045]

>>14415813

BTW, one of the biggest real factors is social, as usual - bunch of smart quants, Ivy leagues PhD are bullshitting Trump-like degenerates that all their babbling and models are capable of predicting the outcome and are better that a coin-toss, while, being really smart and passed through a decent school, they know for sure that it is not and that the whole thing is just a scam, like astrology or I Ching - just a wrong model super-imposed on a too-complex to grasp reality.

Fuck you

[Anonymous No.14416074]

>>14415407
He was right you know

[Anonymous No.14416148]

>>14414836
You're a moron

[Anonymous No.14416155]

>>14414810
I've put in for $9000

[Anonymous No.14416313]

This could be the bottom. Massive buy at 11,134....
Look at the volume and you will learn.

If the hourly chart holds here above 11,000 for the next 90 minutes then we likely will be up back over $12,000 and probably begin another run up to $13,000.

Break below $11,000 in the next two hours and it will continue downward close to $10,000

Too early to call yet,
Above or below $11,000 in the next two hours + volume will be the signal.

[Anonymous No.14416331]

>>14416313
this post is weird to me. it's like, why not look at the chart before you post? we've been below 11k for 90 minutes now.

[Anonymous No.14416448]

>>14416331
Heh, I was looking at the binance BTC/USDT chart.
This means tether is deviating from USD.

Substitute $10,800 for $11,000.

Hold above $10,800 for the next 90 minutes then it’s a higher probability entry point and the bear trend is broken.
Might crawl sideways before resuming or reversing.

[Anonymous No.14416685]

>>14412659
I got .01 of BTC just in case something like a moon does happen.

[Anonymous No.14416752]

>>14416685
You have to go back

[Anonymous No.14417065]

Another 60 minutes.... I’m thinking the bottom of this down trend may be in.

[Anonymous No.14417075]

>>14416045
It's not that they're bullshiting, that anon was probably referring to something from Data Science called Factor Analysis, the goal of that being that you use aspects of Linear Algebra to quantify the correlation between an underlying Factor(s) and variables that you're monitoring (look into things like "Factor Loading" if you want a better idea of what the fuck I'm talking about).

However, the fact that anon doesn't think that a "time frame" even exists is interesting. I try understand why people think certain ways, and it's good to know things like that to get a better idea of where misunderstandings come from.

Understanding multiple time frame trading is not fucking difficult, but if someone doesn't even want to pull their head of their ass, and look at it, well then there's your problem.

[Anonymous No.14417118]

>>14412659
100k EOY

[Anonymous No.14417172]

>>14416448
im stayin up all night for this shit.
im thinking this rush up to 13.7k was just the beginning. true fomo wont begin until btc blasts past 20k. then the real attention will gather.

[Anonymous No.14417517]

>>14417075

Anon, the principle behind the non-existence of time frames is this - there is a fundamental, qualitative difference between reality (what is going on) and what perception an external observer might have.

The difference between the cloud you are seeing in the sky and what this cloud really is (and underlying dynamics) are fundamentally different.

The same principle applies for real activity on some digital exchange and the chart you see. Not just this, but contrary to a cloud in the sky (do you realize that it looks completely different depending on angle, distance, time of day) and some fucking chart. The chart may have absolutely nothing in common with reality, or be just an aggregate of other sources.

In the context of a chart, timeframes is just a different perceptions (angles, distance from a cloud in the sky). An observer could think that he sees some trends or whatever nonsense he might assume, while in reality each point in a chart, which supposedly represent an a distinct event - a transaction according to some set of rules is independent from any notions an observer might have, including that of a time frame.

Shit happens for different reasons (different causality) which are non presented in any fucking chart, so any attempts to derive anything meaningful from them is bullshit by definition. What you (an observer) see (the chart, the cloud) is not what really happened (stochastic motion of molecules in a different temperature gradients or whatever crazy shit is going on behind binance's interface for idiots).

I hope, anon, you could get it.

[Anonymous No.14417528]

This is just a correction before huge pump. I'm selling my house and going all in

[Anonymous No.14417538]

>>14417528

do it faggot!

sell your organs too

[Anonymous No.14417540]

>>14416074
His meme line was broken right after he posted this

[Anonymous No.14417621]

>>14417517
>An observer could think that he sees some trends
So do things not move up and down?

[Anonymous No.14417640]

>>14417540
No it wasn’t. The point was to predict further downward motion and that’s what is happening. A slight fakeout move infinitessimally above the line doesn’t mean shit.

[Anonymous No.14417662]

>>14417621
If I go to the binance Link/BTC Order Book right now, and clear a bunch of Buy Orders, is the a chart gonna look like a "Random Walk xdddd"

[Anonymous No.14417799]

>>14417662

No, anon, it is not random, but there is no information which cloud allow you to predict anything from a chart.

An exchange itself, however, which may have info on all open positions may have a more detailed picture, but still, no way to predict how all the bots will behave.

The fundamental difference is that an exchange itself could model its own market as a finite set of agents with their positions, but this will be a only "snapshot", independent from everything else.

To put this in a simple words - all models are wrong because they are trying to derive future from the past which is impossible by definition.

Everything else is just bullshitting of uneducated liberal arts majors and disconnected from reality polymaths.

[Anonymous No.14417825]

>>14417640
it went 500 dollars above the line. i think most people would have been stopped out

[Anonymous No.14417986]

>>14415371

[Anonymous No.14418015]

>>14417799
>An exchange itself, however, which may have info on all open positions may have a more detailed picture, but still, no way to predict how all the bots will behave.
I'll ask the same question phrased differently from here: >>14417621

Why maintain ANY information about positioning, because apparently markets don't EVER move up and down for sustained periods (which is what positioning might help to gadge).

Why Long or Short anything, for any period of time? Things NEVER move up or down over ANY period of time.

Right?

[Anonymous No.14418065]

>>14418015
Also what are all those moving average trading bots doing, what are all those stat arb bots doing, what are all those breakout/momentum chasing bots doing? Those poor souls need to be told no model ever works.

[Anonymous No.14418239]

>>14418065

Models are never correct or even explanatory, however they may be useful for making some decisions.

Religions, superstitions are exactly that. You may consult I Ching and still function (lots of people are really doing this). Stupid people are believe in god and still function explaining everything in terms of god.

All the moving averages and other statistical quantities are descriptive but not explanatory. They are interpreted according to what you want them to be.

Again, any attempt to derive anything from an observed past will fail. Statistics will tell you is a dice rigged or not but it will never, ever, by definition. in principle tell you the next outcome.

BTW, statistics is meaningfully applicable only to a fully observable systems like a dice. If there are any factors which are not accounted for then everything is just religious bullshit or I Ching or horoscopes.

This, by the way, is Philosophy 101 and stats 101

[Anonymous No.14418313]

GIVE IT TO ME STRAIGHT, DOC!

DO I HODL OR NOT?!

[Anonymous No.14418356]

>>14418239
Goodness me!

Please contact every international government you can find, people need to know their stock market retirement plans are a bunch of bullshit. Literally millions of people are relying on higher time frame stock market uptrends. Go tell them the truth about how it's all pointless, because they aren't monitoring every single butterfly flap on Earth, just in case.

[Anonymous No.14418416]

CAN YOU FUCKING CRASH ALREADYYYYYY WHO IS SUPPORTING AT 11k fucking niggers just sell already so i can buy at 8k

[Anonymous No.14418420]

>>14418356

Why, it is just socially constructed and socially maintained bullshit. There are places where they will tell you in all the details what will happen after death and what should you do to guarantee that everything will be fine with you.

And, yes, retirement plans are socially constructed bullshit. Google "great depression" or something. Just some people are making good money and have a higher social position by bullshitting idiots.

Bullshitting is the second oldest profession on Earth.

[Anonymous No.14418438]

I sold at 12.5k. not sure when to buy back in

[Anonymous No.14418445]

>>14418438

at 3k

[Anonymous No.14418521]

Okay, the $10,800 support level has held. Bear trend is now a toss up, likely reversed.
This is a good entry point.
I just entered at $11,298... I hope to let it run back over $13,000

Volume bars will reveal if whales will keep dumping or let it run.

[Anonymous No.14418541]

>>14418521

yes, exactly this kind of bullshit.

[Anonymous No.14418544]

>>14418445
BASED

[Anonymous No.14418558]

>>14413315
You sound like a 110 IQ big boy who unironically thinks he's not a semi-retarded brainlet.

[Anonymous No.14418611]

>>14418420
Based and redpilled. Let me guess, is it /x/, /pol/ or reddit?

[Anonymous No.14418615]

>>14418541
The trend is your friend.

[Anonymous No.14418638]

>>14418521
>I literally just sold slightly above breakeven

BOGDANOFFFSSSS!!!!!

[Anonymous No.14418722]

>>14418615
nice, wish i did that instead of moving a fraction to linka and holding the rest

[Anonymous No.14418741]

>>14418611

ok ok, I went a bit too far. the stock market is based on some so-called "fundamentals" so it is more or less "predictable". Like apple at its current state is likely not go bankrupt tomorrow, and Boeing will survive 737 MAX fiasco.

But this does not mean that modeling and predictions are even remotely correct - no one could have predicted fucking Trump and all he consequences. Or even this current green dildo to 13,800.

But this fucking memecoins have nothing like "fundamentals". It is just a pure speculation and stochasticity. Memes drive sentiments, crowds are driven by sentiments.

And algos and bots are made according to some model, but all the model are oversimplified and wrong. Modeling is modern alchemy or a the next level of horoscopes.

[Anonymous No.14418759]

>>14418615
What's even the point of this image? You could've just easily have said that you bought.

[Anonymous No.14418768]

It's alt season.
Thank me later.

[Anonymous No.14418866]

>>14418768
alt season is cancelled henceforth. enjoy your worthless bags.

[Anonymous No.14419544]

>>14418741
>muh fundamentals
The stock market bears as much reflection of the real world as the money printing press does.

[Anonymous No.14419591]

>>14419544

Liberal arts college dropout? I see

[Anonymous No.14419668]

>>14419591
You're just butthurt cause you lost all your money.

[Anonymous No.14419718]

>>14415371
>institution
Are you referring to the consistent 20-26 coin buys in eth i noticed lately

[Anonymous No.14420130]

>>14413296
>edit
You have to go back

[Anonymous No.14420269]

>>14419718
Nah, that's just me accumulating.

[Anonymous No.14420299]

>>14418768
if you mean hunting season, that is. there are coins dropping left and right.

[Anonymous No.14420310]

$12,000

[Anonymous No.14420533]

>>14418768
I've been watching how Alt/BTC pairs have been reacting to this pause bitcoin has been having. The fact they seem to only be bouncing, while bitcoin is like may actually indicate large buyers coming into this market.

The reasoning for this is that they're likely to allocate to where there is most Liquidity (which is in Bitcoin).

I'm not sure what this means for Alt/BTC pairs, but I'd definitely be keeping my eye on those pairs which seem to be standing against the storm the best. Link, in terms of both its BTC and USD pairings, has been quite stable.

[Anonymous No.14420548]

>>14420533
>while bitcoin is like
*while bitcoin is like this

[Anonymous No.14420549]

>>14412659
Another day
Another wrong TA
It's literally 50/50 dude how do you guys fuck this up

[Anonymous No.14420556]

>>14412659
Schill identified. Screw that and screw you.
PUMP! PUMP! PUMP! PUMP!
PUMP! PUMP! PUMP! PUMP!
>>14420049

[Anonymous No.14421200]

Buy my trading services.

[Anonymous No.14421227]

>>14413315
>whose decisions? who's to say people are going to see that graph and make the same decision, or that the people making the decisions will see it at all. remember, each of those candles represents the independent buying and selling decisions of millions of people. lines on a chart are not going to tell you anything about what those people will do in the future, especially given most people don't even know what they themselves will do in the future. """technical"" """analysis""" is a bunch of superstitious nonsense akin to tarot or I-ching.

This is why Autistic people are so bad at trading.

If a large enough portion of people draw a line, and use it to buy or sell then what happens?