/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.13969872]

>ctrl-f yield curve
>zero results
why the FUCK is no one talking about how our best predictor of near-term economic recession (10Y - 3m treasury) signaled recession this week?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

[Anonymous No.13969889]

BUMP

[Anonymous No.13969897]

Who cares?
I’m just waiting for the cheapies

[Anonymous No.13969903]

>>13969872
Because optimism is literally at its peak before a recession, literally no one invested thinks that the market can fail. Pay off your debts as soon as possible, stock up on food and essentials.

[Anonymous No.13969904]

>>13969872
we did talk about this, the result is:
>this time everything is different

[Anonymous No.13969914]

[Anonymous No.13969920]

>>13969872
search the archives. we actually did last week. /biz/ is always faster then normie news. wanna talk about it again? got nothing else to do.

[Anonymous No.13969933]

>>13969904
>>13969903
with rates so low the Fed has no room to respond. idk, maybe its bullish for stocks. Fed might have to do equity purchases. maybe purchase corporate/consumer debt on the open market and cancel it.

[Anonymous No.13969940]

literally everybody already knows

[Anonymous No.13969999]

Does anyone have that yield curve straightening gif or webm? Much appreciated.

[Anonymous No.13970024]

>>13969920
link to prev discussion? searching on warosu for "yield curve" in op the 3 recent threads have minimal discussion

[Anonymous No.13970032]

>>13969933
yeah this time everything is different

[Anonymous No.13970051]

>>13969914

[Anonymous No.13970061]

>muuuh boomer lines
We are in a bull market, my bank sends me offers every fucking week. Everyone is investing, this will keep it going

[Anonymous No.13970074]

>>13969933
Major recession warning is when everybody thinks that even bad news is bullish

Buy silver, guns and ammo now

[Anonymous No.13970084]

>>13969872
we are so hilariously fucked and I'm in absolute aww that the only place it's being discussed is occasionally on biz and pol but nowhere else in the entire fucking usa

[Anonymous No.13970128]

>>13970084
Why would tv or banks talk about how they’re planning to corner more of the market than they ever have? No one is gonna talk about this....even the mid level investors are drinking the koolaid yelling about how bullish we are. Unfortunately biz and even reddit are the only place we can have a discussion about this.

[Anonymous No.13970130]

Isn't that was BTC was made for though? Im excited personally. A lot of people will be hurt by what is coming so I am a little empathetic, but I will use my wealth to make a better life than what the current system offers.

[Anonymous No.13970133]

Don't worry, the God Emperor will use his vast personal wealth to prop up equity prices

[Anonymous No.13970154]

What would be the best way to prepare for this? Accumulate as much fiat as possible?

[Anonymous No.13970179]

>>13969872
Of course we know
All in in BTC
Wait for 60% correction on stock market
Sell crypto for stock
Retire

[Anonymous No.13970180]

>>13970154
> Accumulate as much fiat as possible?

GET A LOAD OF THIS GOY

[Anonymous No.13970212]

>>13970154
NO

[Anonymous No.13970221]

We all know the only real question that matters.
BTC or ETH?

[Anonymous No.13970225]

>>13970212
Why? My plan was to hoard cash then buy stocks when they are on a clearance sale.

[Anonymous No.13970248]

>>13970225
Bubble is so big that we could go to Venezuela style market where your cash is worth 10% less every day

[Anonymous No.13970267]

>>13969872
We have been. The board is busy and threads don't last as long as it did the last half of 2018 or even the first quarter of 2019.

[Anonymous No.13970286]

>>13970248
The US is too big to fail to that extent...

[Anonymous No.13970302]

>>13970286
Sure and the Titanic didn't sink

[Anonymous No.13970305]

>>13970084
You should start looking at the earning report coming out of Canadian banks last week. It’s a pretty good leading indicator. Don’t be surprised, the bankers are actually the most delusional bunch, because they have to keep the music going.

[Anonymous No.13970326]

>>13970286
There already is tent cities in US, it just means more people joining them

Nothing is too big to fall, roman empire and soviet union fell

[Anonymous No.13970327]

>>13970302
You honestly think the US will end up like Venezuela? If so, what would be the best way to prep, btc?

[Anonymous No.13970328]

meanwhile deutsche bank is soon to be fucked
tesla about to go kaput. that might scare a whole bunch of normie retail investors from the markets

[Anonymous No.13970330]

For those who have forgotten or are too underage to know about any recessions before 2008, remember that "recession" isn't the same thing as "financial crisis". The last one was very bad because there was a financial crisis; the yield curve only predicts that we may go into a cyclical recession, not that there will be a crisis or a massive bubble popping or whatever

[Anonymous No.13970333]

>>13970302
The Titanic didn't actually sink. It was the Olympic.

[Anonymous No.13970334]

>>13970248
Nothing like that
Be realistic, you will not starve to death

[Anonymous No.13970355]

>>13970327
Look into whats happening in Venezuela, you can buy a house with a ounce of gold,

>>13970334
Very few are starving to deeth in venezuela, it just means alternative sources of food must be found, or people steal what they need

[Anonymous No.13970357]

>>13970084
>aww

[Anonymous No.13970366]

>>13970330
You don't think after all the bailouts the last time that we are fucked if there is another recession so soon?

[Anonymous No.13970370]

>>13970330
the 2000 recession had a massive bubble (tech bubble) pop
the 80s recession also had a financial crisis
but you're right that they are different
mid 90s had a recession without financial crisis i believe

[Anonymous No.13970374]

>>13969872
its different this time

[Anonymous No.13970377]

>>13970180
these kinds of images make you look like complete idiots, at least edit them well

[Anonymous No.13970381]

>>13970221
they both are too slow for mainstream usage desu, buy bch or ltc

[Anonymous No.13970393]

>>13970381
lightning network isnt

[Anonymous No.13970405]

>>13970334
assume the worst

[Anonymous No.13970410]

>>13970366
No idea. I don't bother speculating about this kind of thing. Opinions of internet randoms are as worthless as commentary on CNBC. For instance after the 2008 recession I was very concerned that the Fed's balance sheet was like $4 trillion all of a sudden, but nobody seems to care and honestly it's not like I have the detailed knowledge required to say for sure that they even should care.
>>13970370
Yeah obviously each one makes the other more likely, but something like the yield curve can't predict an actual crisis, only the usual business cycle

[Anonymous No.13970411]

>>13970393
cope

[Anonymous No.13970414]

>>13970248
>implying those in power will let hyperinflation clear the debt records
the burgers are too well hedged against inflation through constantly topping up their credit accounts.
anything that would allow them to be relinquished from their chains of debt slavery would thoroughly up end the order of everything.
imagine the US with 300 million burgers free to run around, without any reason to pay off their bills.
imagine the smell.

[Anonymous No.13970479]

I’ll repeat myself once again for any non-retarded anons out there.
We are facing a recession. Not any recession, a global recession. Shits gonner get real.
Yield curve inversion is an indicator of every recession. The silver price is massively undervalued, some would say manipulated. Get yourself some PM ETFs and miners.
Get your 1 BTC on a ledger and watch this shit fly.
October is when the real fun begins.

[Anonymous No.13970482]

>>13970370
Early 90s was housing

[Anonymous No.13970523]

>>13970479
>October is when the real fun begins.
what's in October?

[Anonymous No.13970541]

>>13970482
oh right the S&L crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

[Anonymous No.13970615]

>>13970084
>aww

[Anonymous No.13970666]

Read this article: https://m.greenwichtime.com/business/article/A-new-credit-bubble-gets-ready-to-burst-13911193.php

And then look at my picture and the timestamp. Its from two months ago but its the longest dated post I have warning people about CLO's, but ive been warning people about it for almost a year now. Its the most blatant cash run I have ever seen. The federal government is cooking the books too economically, our GDP should actually be down at around 2 trillion right now.

[Anonymous No.13970694]

>>13970479
>Get yourself some PM ETFs
how about actually own it

[Anonymous No.13970749]

>>13969872
I prefer the 10Y 2Y spread as the standard.

[Anonymous No.13970792]

>>13970749
And if you hear that this time is different, it's exactly right because the fed has 450% more assets this time. It's going to be worse.

[Anonymous No.13970807]

>>13970792
and because rates are so low

[Anonymous No.13970818]

>>13970792
See pic.

[Anonymous No.13970838]

>>13969999
checked
>this will straighten your curve

[Anonymous No.13970884]

>>13970838
That girl is absolutely retarded. I don't understand people who are attracted to this garbage.

[Anonymous No.13970887]

>>13969933
Yep they could pull a BOJ on us and pump the s&p for a decade.. Nearly 75% of jap etf and quite a bit of FAANG bought by BOJ SNB and Norwegian oil fund

[Anonymous No.13970915]

>>13970818
>4 million million dollars

Thats around 10% of whole US stock market value ?

[Anonymous No.13970916]

>>13970818
And it's not just the US, EU and JP are also loaded to the gills. The only upside is that the US has somewhat normalized rates (by raising them) compared to the other countries.

[Anonymous No.13971050]

>>13970051
>exponential graph
i know ur tricks bobo

[Anonymous No.13971067]

>>13970074
>3% GDP growth after 2% is bad news

[Anonymous No.13971086]

>>13970330
>student loan bubble

[Anonymous No.13971144]

>>13971086
Can't have a debt crisis if the debtors aren't allowed to legally default! Can't wait for the gender studies majors to get thrown in the debt gulag. Or maybe they can just be sold to the lenders as slaves

[Anonymous No.13971177]

I don't see anybody in this thread talking about how to PREPARE for the recession.

I also don't see anybody talking about how to PROFIT from the next recession.

This event is mere weeks/months away. We're already entering into it.

[Anonymous No.13971182]

>>13971144

[Anonymous No.13971196]

>>13971177
crypto cucks here will disagree but increase your allocation of fiat

[Anonymous No.13971223]

>>13969872
This is old news and we've already talked about this ad nauseam OP

[Anonymous No.13971233]

>>13970179

[Anonymous No.13971260]

>>13971177
You get as many Bitcoins as you can. $1,000,000 isint a meme, and Bitcoinization isint a meme either. A hyperinflation event could lead to USD decreasing in value daily. And what is Bitcoin? It’s a measure against the dollars depreciation.

Don’t listen to >>13971196 cash is the worst thing to be in. There are 1.7 trillion actual fiat notes floating around America, when the money velocity starts to rise (which will happen soon, very soon), depreciation will take place at a rapid fucking pace.

[Anonymous No.13971274]

>>13971260
warren buffett has made more money than any of you faggots and if cash is good enough for him its good enough for me

[Anonymous No.13971296]

>>13971274
kek

[Anonymous No.13971304]

>>13971196
Increase fiat allocation by buying crypto now and selling for x50 fiat later. Why hold $8500 and not 1 BTC?

>>13971274
Boomerpilled

[Anonymous No.13971305]

>>13971274
Nice one.

[Anonymous No.13971472]

>>13969872
When people refer to the yield curve inverting, they are talking about 2y and 10y notes
Also, we never had any recession in the 90s. If you sold in the early 90s you lost out on huge equity gains

[Anonymous No.13971534]

>>13971177
>PROFIT
Spend dollars today on things like cheap silver or gold or crypto. Sit back and wait for recession. Sell what you bought for massive gains and buy up everything that's now cheap from the crash. It's pretty fucked how easy it is for the rich to get richer

[Anonymous No.13971609]

>>13970694
What are PM ETFs?

[Anonymous No.13971671]

>>13971472
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/august/information-in-yield-curve-about-future-recessions/
>The difference between ten-year and three-month Treasury rates is the most useful term spread for forecasting recessions

[Anonymous No.13971863]

>>13969999

[Anonymous No.13971886]

>>13971671
https://www.wsj.com/video/why-investors-are-obsessed-with-the-inverted-yield-curve/D63EEEC1-9C78-42E4-BCCA-1E89551FFAD8.html
When discussing the yield curve, people are referring to the 2y and 10y notes, which is what I said. The market has gone vertical for 20 years twice since the advent of the federal reserve. From the 1950s to the 70s and from the 80s to the dotcom bubble if you sold and traded based on your indicator, you would have missed out on monumental returns during those bull markets. We have had two five-year bear markets in which the indicator worked fine (2008), and those followed the massive bullruns. For all of the inversions on your chart, only 4 resulted in real recessions.

[Anonymous No.13972111]

>>13971472
i think there was a small recession that hurt bush in the 90s. s&l bailout for his glow-in-the-dark pals like stefan halper and their funny money.

[Anonymous No.13972138]

>>13969872

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

[Anonymous No.13972157]

>>13969872

We already know the derivatives bubble is about to pop

[Anonymous No.13972198]

should i pull all my money out of stocks and dump into crypto now?

[Anonymous No.13972277]

>>13970838
But my penis is curved thanks to not being circumcised

[Anonymous No.13972300]

>>13970084
The boomers on zerhedge and zerohedge twitter (schiff rickards etf) are literally discussing it daily and in far more depth than biz

[Anonymous No.13972374]

>>13970666
checked and capped

[Anonymous No.13972414]

>>13971260
Here’s what’s going to happen to btc during the next crisis

Tether is completely at the mercy of the gov and bankers. They all understand btc is the greatest existential threat they’ve ever faced. They NEED to break the market psychologically during the next bull run in order to avoid btc being viewed as a safe haven

So they’ll crash the price like they’ve doing with gold and silver for years, and they’ll do it through tether, regulation, market manipulation, etc...

Meanwhile they’ll let hold and silver fly since they’ve already accumulated most of those markets

[Anonymous No.13972443]

>>13970128
>>13970084
They're openly discussing cashless economy/negative interest rates fucking retard

Look at what they're fucking exploring
https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-interest-rates-work/

Also, anyone into derivatives, DB is the most massive

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

[Anonymous No.13972469]

>>13970084
Now you realize why imageboards are the only place you should ever browse
>t. Been on the chans since 2007, literally don't browse anything besides 4/8/420chan for a decade now
Its all trash elsewhere

[Anonymous No.13972549]

>>13970074
dude, if this isn't a huge fucking signal, I don't know what to tell you. You're hopeless.

[Anonymous No.13972613]

This financial crisis will be kicked off by consumer credit card debt, and student loan debt.

Mortgages are getting bad again too, but there are some mechanisms in place to prevent shit like last time. But Credit Cards and student loans are like the wild west again.

I know someone who has 35 credit cards, 35 fucking credit cards. Every bank approves his ass with a 580 credit score.

[Anonymous No.13972691]

you dumb fucks think bitcoin will be a hedge against a recession are literally retarded.

The first thing to go in a recession is speculative risky investments....rip corn.

[Anonymous No.13972715]

Friendly reminder that nationalism will sweep Europe when the next one hits and this time the Holocaust won't be fake

[Anonymous No.13972735]

>>13972198
Should have dumped into crypto 2+ months ago but no one can predict the future

[Anonymous No.13973513]

>>13971863
that's a great webm

[Anonymous No.13973562]

>>13970084
well, who do you think controls the media?

[Anonymous No.13973597]

>>13970414
smells
like
FREEDOM

[Anonymous No.13973686]

>>13972414
this, sadly, will probably be accurate
they have enough funny money printed out to bash bitcoin down to very low levels
just like with silver, i'll be accumulating
lots of dry powder on the sidelines

[Anonymous No.13973724]

>>13972715
god please let this be true

[Anonymous No.13973763]

>>13972715
We can only hope

[Anonymous No.13974307]

[Anonymous No.13974362]

>>13974307
go private equity before the sheep do and ride their pump

[Anonymous No.13974480]

Bump for good thread.

[Anonymous No.13974499]

>>13972443
Holy fuck

>the year is 2499
>your money depreciates faster if you choose to keep your biological body

[Anonymous No.13974514]

>>13972613
I have a 580 and all I get approved for is secured credit lines

[Anonymous No.13974556]

>>13972613
I talked to some bartender bitch in medschool who looked like she escourts too, anyway, she admitted to having 20 cards and 200k in debt, and she goes to a state school that costs 10k a semester undergrad, 50k grad, and it's a decent school. It blew my mind and I thought I was up shits creek with 3cards with 7k debt and 40k in student loans and that was going out of state to a private institution

[Anonymous No.13974668]

>>13972443
>Look at what they're fucking exploring
>https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-interest-rates-work/
wtf

[Anonymous No.13974673]

>>13974307
>>13974362
another reason we swing private
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Committee_on_Financial_Services
absolute state of this lot, US government is full of retards!
>AOC
>Maxine Waters
>tons of other diversity hires and WOMEN
also check out mini aoc
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9RtLfJtl3Y

[Anonymous No.13974740]

>>13972691

haha imagine being dense.

btc is literally the perfect hedge you brainlet. lurk more.

[Anonymous No.13974840]

Bump for the good thread

[Anonymous No.13974865]

Decent video about what would happen. Negative interest rates : https://youtu.be/XcGOyXjuShA?t=290

[Anonymous No.13975056]

BTC is decoupled from your shithole boomer economy
enjoy your debt based crash and burn

[Anonymous No.13975086]

We are fucked!
You can tell people have already chosen their battle plan. Its easy just gove them a small redpill that is easily seen and totally true if they ignore you or dont care, you then now know they have mentally chosen a side. Almost all have sold out.

[Anonymous No.13975216]

would i be safe being 100% in LINK?

[Anonymous No.13975401]

>>13975216
BTC is undoubtedly the safer play. That said I'm heavy in LINK at the moment myself.

[Anonymous No.13975428]

>>13975401
I kinda have that feeling as well, but what indicators should i look for if i were to have to switch out before any of this shit happens?

[Anonymous No.13975545]

>>13975428
I don't think it should be a one or the other. Owning only one crypto is a bad idea. Diversify fren.

[Anonymous No.13975590]

>>13972414
This could be a likely possibility.
It depends how many of (((them))) are in Crypto when the music stops playing. I'm betting on the fact that a lot of the elites are in or will get into crypto soon as a hedge. That article here the other day where someone mentioned they had a client that wanted to own 25% of all BTC at a cost of ~40billion makes me think big money wants in. If this is the case 1million/BTC is not a meme, especially if USD crashes.

[Anonymous No.13975598]

>>13975428
Wish I could tell you that I had a worthwhile answer. My short term expectation is that LINK will outpace BTC significantly. I will be holding a substantial LINK position for the foreseeable future regardless. I don't think shit will hit the fan in 2019 and I may begin scaling back into BTC with that prediction in place. If you're on this board and understand this thread you're already more prepared than a far greater proportion of the general population than you probably realize.

[Anonymous No.13975612]

>>13969872

[Anonymous No.13975617]

>>13975428
Wish I could tell you that I had a worthwhile answer. My short term expectation is that LINK will outpace BTC significantly. I will likely be holding a substantial LINK position for the foreseeable future regardless. If you're on this board and understand this thread you're already more prepared than a far greater proportion of the general population than you probably realize.

[Anonymous No.13975652]

>>13975617
yup, same consensus there as well. guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

[Anonymous No.13975774]

>>13972277
is that correlated?

[Anonymous No.13975955]

>>13970414
I never considered the free range burger theory, sounds almost as scary as communism itself

[Anonymous No.13975982]

But there were no major recessions those first two times on the graph

[Anonymous No.13976057]

>>13975955
only because there is so many damn nignogs and mexicans now...

[Anonymous No.13976103]

>>13972715
Don't tease me.

[Anonymous No.13976526]

>>13970061
kek peak delusion right here folks

[Anonymous No.13976612]

>>13970355
>people steal what they need
https://apnews.com/1366318d49894d32aab3d6e6354f40a5

[Anonymous No.13976646]

>>13970330
Are you fucking paying attention? EVERYTHING is fucking going to shit.
>student loan bubble
>credit card bubble
>boomer retirement bubble - this one is goong to be fun to watch kek
>automobile bubble
>housing bubble 2.0
>corporate stock buyback bubble
Motherfucker, the world economy is smoke and mirrors at this point. Unless the rothschilds have some sort of magical trick up their sleeve. oh wait...
>here it comes, the one world currency... The child born from the IMF's masterplan
Now you should see why a massive shitstorm will be necessary. Its all part of the plan

[Anonymous No.13976754]

>>13971863
This is fucking scary as fuck anons

[Anonymous No.13976808]

pic related. stop worrying

[Anonymous No.13976845]

>>13976808
Wow, this is great news!

|
|
|>
|
|

[Anonymous No.13977062]

muh recession
muh yield curve
muh why aren't millenials buying houses?
muh student loan debt

The USA and the rest of the western world for that matter are not going into a "recession." You know why?

Because countries full of niggers and brown people do not go into "recessions," they become shitholes.

Millenials aren't buying houses because why tf would I spend 500k on a house when a bunch of hajis and pajeets have moved in down the street and the local public school is 60% black. Makes zero fucking sense.

The US is a second world country that has taken out massive debt to fund a first world standard of living.

The US is the nigger driving around in the leased 75k mercedes with 40k in credit card debt and $500 in his checking account. One minor accident and he is a broke ass nigger on the street selling crack.

That is what the US is and that is what the rest of the white countries have become. Western Europe, Canada, they're all gonna become second world shitholes when this thing pops and they're won't be a fucking "recovery" lol.

If you wanna know how it is going to be go visit Brazil.

[Anonymous No.13977108]

>>13977062
>The US is the nigger driving around in the leased 75k mercedes with 40k in credit card debt and $500 in his checking account

not to mention with enough firepower to wipe out the whole neighborhood and an "us vs. them" attitude

[Anonymous No.13977110]

>>13969999
Checked. Bunch of unappreciative nufags don't understand how big of a deal these numbers are. Get off of biz

[Anonymous No.13977115]

>>13975590
Financial rumours is mostly fake news

[Anonymous No.13977124]

>>13976845
Its not news, its a signal for insiders

[Anonymous No.13977184]

>>13977062
> The US is the nigger driving around in the leased 75k mercedes with 40k in credit card debt and $500 in his checking account.
If the US is here, the rest of the world is sitting in their trailer watching the repo man pickup their 2003 Kia while doing their last meth crystal.
No doubt anon the recession/depression whatever you want to call is going to be global.
The only reason the Dollar has been holding its value and even increasing is because big Euro money has been looking for a safe haven. But that will soon dry up and everyone will be eating a shit sandwitch.
Less /pol/ more /biz/

[Anonymous No.13977233]

Go and have a look at the stock charts of the biggest european banks.
Notice something?
hint:
>funds are not safu

[Anonymous No.13977234]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmtw8grnnUM

[Anonymous No.13977245]

>>13969872
Probably because only the boomers from SMG who're about to get even more justed in the coming months are the only ones that care. Everyone in crypto already knows how worthless FIAT really is.

Now put all of your money in LINK and I'll see you in september

[Anonymous No.13977253]

ONE QUESTION
WILL HOME PRICES FALL?
I just want to own a home

[Anonymous No.13977276]

>>13977253
Yes big time.
When the credit markets freeze up, which they will, the market will be awash in bank repos and folks that need to get out. Have your cash ready to go and you can scoop up cheapies. Be patient this might be a year away, but be ready.

[Sage No.13977278]

>>13970666
Based trips

[Anonymous No.13977441]

>>13977253
Depends where. Good indication of what a home should be worth as 5 years annual average salary for the area

[Anonymous No.13977513]

>>13969903
why would u pay debts right before it doesn't matter much

[Anonymous No.13977525]

>>13971260
bitcoin is slow and riddled with transaction fees cause it was overtaken by the jews

[Anonymous No.13977533]

>>13971609
pieces of paper saying you own it basically - like how central bamking money was used originally as a certification of access to gold

[Anonymous No.13977541]

>>13976754
we're gonna be ok fren just buy more cryptocoins

[Anonymous No.13977680]

>>13972414
This