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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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13528784 No.13528784 [Reply] [Original]

Every true /biz/inessman needs to watch this. Fucking glorious take-down of the credit markets

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9_bWbrYPKg

>> No.13528814 [DELETED] 
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13528814

yep

but this is /biz/
they won't get it

>> No.13528914

>>13528814
Ya you're right. At least one person is aware...
This is what financial enlightenment looks like. In 3 years they will call Brian Reynolds the GOAT for accurately articulating the problem

>> No.13528925

>>13528914
>>13528784
how does this help me make money. the fuck is the point in being "woke" if you're still poor

>> No.13528943 [DELETED] 

>>13528914
i mean a lot of the stuff he's saying we know about in the real finance world (not biz)
all the pension problems and hot credit money pumping and the buy backs... interesting he thinks it's got another 2 or 3 years to run
always good to hear people with experience talking like this so thanks for the link

>> No.13528951 [DELETED] 

>>13528925
honestly. we don't really care about you. my advice is get a good education and get an internship at a decent investment bank.

>> No.13528970

>>13528925
You realize you can short literally any asset right?

>> No.13528980

>>13528784

I always enjoy realvision, thanks

>> No.13528983

>>13528943
People talk about these things but usually in isolation. He really tied it all up nicely

>> No.13529002

>>13528970

How do you short the concept of fiat though?

>> No.13529007 [DELETED] 

>>13528983
yeah.
i think they'll bail out the pensions and restructure them desu. could easily be wrong tho.
cya

>> No.13529013

>>13529002
short all the major ones

>> No.13529026

>>13529002
Gold, guns and non-perishables? Or just sign up with a broker and short whatever currency you want, but you will be paid (or have to pay) in dollars

>> No.13529030

>>13529013

But then what do you make profits in? Btc?

>> No.13529038

>>13529026

Doing that already, I'm very short on the usd and euro

>> No.13529082

>>13528970
why would you short it? the video literally says that markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent and the bubble will keep on intensifying.

>pensions buy coorporate bonds
>companies use new capital to do buybacks
>stock price goes up
>coorporate bond rating therefore also goes up
>people see good returns, better bond rating, continued bull momentum = even more pension money then goes into bonds
>repeat

and it keeps on repeating until it goes parabolic and some catalyst causes it to come crashing down. You don't know the catalyst. And you don't know how much it will go up.

So I'm asking you, how do you make money of this information?

>> No.13529117

>>13529038
Wait for the 2-10 yr inversion, watch for the peak within 2 yrs, then short the fuck outta corporate bonds, especially mid grade. Below is the 'bond king' calling the next mortgage backed security

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXdKgWe_bb8

and here's DiMartino talking about the same thing at 36:40

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nYM8_EH1AI

>> No.13529149

>>13529082
see >>13529117
obviously don't short now, although maybe we're due for a pullback, but eventually some puts or straight shorts on these junk bonds will do well

>> No.13529925

Thanks for sharing. What I've gathered here is that this chain of investments (tax rev -> pensions -> bonds -> buybacks -> credit bump -> buyback -> repeat) has the market riding up a steep half-ramp as if it were a motorcycle that eventually struggles to keep up on a sharp incline. The driver accelerates harder and harder until the end of the ramp when everything falls off the cliff

If we do have 2-3 years until the next big surprise, what will that say for crypto and PMs when one appears to be in the early stages of a bull market and the other has been in a years-long bear and typically performs well in economic downturn?

In the event that big state pension funds go broke and get a bail-out, would they be likely to bet at least a small portion of funds on crypto - probably not directly purchasing themselves, but going through some middleman like Bakkt or Fidelity?

I intend to accumulate crypto and PMs throughout this year and maybe the next, cash out between late 2021-22, and then invest in promising dividend stocks and index funds when the markets tank