/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.13466561]

Has anyone actually managed to become a professional options trader?

[Anonymous No.13466672]

>>13466561
Anton Kreil has

[Anonymous No.13466682]

>>13466561
real leaders of finance at major banks have information asymmetry. If you aren't cheating, you aren't winning

[Anonymous No.13466968]

>>13466682
only correct answer

[Anonymous No.13466970]

>>13466672
Why does Tay walk so awkwardly?

[Anonymous No.13466973]

>>13466561
Anton is based. Some of his advice actually applies to trading crypto (even though he disdains it)

[Anonymous No.13466994]

>>13466682
If you're trading the stock market, there is always an institutional trader on both sides of your order. Think about it. Only institutional investors have the money to move the price so no matter where the price is, it's there because there are institutional bulls and bears on both sides keeping it in equilibrium for however long the price remains the same. So no matter what you do you're trading on the same side as an institutional investor.

[Anonymous No.13467007]

>>13466994
Sorry, got sidetracked. The point is, it doesn't matter where you go long or short, the key is how you manage the trade. That's how the big boys take your money. Learn to manage your trades and one day you'll be rich like Anton. Or me :-)

[Anonymous No.13467010]

>>13466994
that's not how market making works

[Anonymous No.13467015]

>>13466561
Theres a lots of people but I dont think youll find many on this forum. Not to be a meanie but even tho this is a fun business forum its not a very good. Even wsb is better. Theres 3 or 4 discussion forums I go to that you can learn something aside from memes. I wouldnt be surprised if most if biz lose money.

[Anonymous No.13467048]

>>13467007
Can you elaborate on what it means to manage the trade?

>>13467015
Care to share these better forums?

t. just opened a brokerage account and don't want to get rekt

[Anonymous No.13467049]

>>13466561
does anyone have his options course? I have the stock and forex courses but I need the options one, it's too pricey

[Anonymous No.13467207]

>>13467048
When it comes to managing trades, the unpopular truth is there are essentially no hard and fast rules cuz if you could come up with any then everybody else would come up with the same thing and cancel out your edge. So there are no indicators, no equations, no automated systems that if you just plug in the trades free money comes out.
That said, here are some suggestions. First understand that while there are no holy grails, if you learn to read price action you can get an edge. Trading is zero sum so if you can be just a little better than average, you will make money in the long run. So learn to read the tape just a little better than the next guy. The tape, that is the candles tell you everything you need to know. Unlike literally everything and everyone else in this space, the price never lies. If the candles are dropping fast enough, they are long enough, and they aren't overlapping, you have a better than even chance of a pullback so you fade it. That's just one example. You just have to watch for it. 5is works in stocks, forex, crypto, everything except shorting options. But that's just an example you have to find your own edge. Another suggestion is stick to a single time frame. Price action is a fractal o all time frames look the same but if you find your entry on the one hour chart, don't go checking the one minute chart for confirmation. The price action there could be different and give you the wrong signal. A weekly chart may be bullish while the hourly is bearish.
That's what I mean by managing the trade. Everything that happens between the buy and the sell.

[Anonymous No.13467297]

>>13467049
bump for sauce on this

[Anonymous No.13467325]

I'm not a professional I just buy options as lotto tickets.

[Anonymous No.13468113]

>>13466561
Yes. Just sell covered calls. It's that easy. Don't ever bother paying for premium.

[Anonymous No.13468192]

Sent 1000 CVs to be a derivatives trader. Got 3 interviews, 2 no's and waiting on the 3rd...

[Anonymous No.13468228]

>>13466994
Unfortunately, institutional traders and you occupy different dimensions. They trade on nano scales and you on micro. The orderbook your seeing is an illusion;on finer scales at least.

[Anonymous No.13468321]

>>13466561
>Has anyone actually managed to become a professional options trader?

Jeffrey Epstein (the pedo island guy). He started as an options trader at Bear Stearns and then later started a fund where you needed a min of $1 billion to invest.

So there's one example

[Anonymous No.13468334]

>>13467010
>that's not how market making works
Market makers follow the price and make money off the spread, they don't set the price.
>>13468228
>Unfortunately, institutional traders and you occupy different dimensions. They trade on nano scales and you on micro. The orderbook your seeing is an illusion;on finer scales at least.
You are vastly overstating the issue, price action takes place across all time frames from nanoseconds to years. Price action is a consequence of the innate human condition. It is an expression of our DNA and it will not change appreciably even when we program the computers that carry out 90% of the trading for us.
There is a simple test. Take a look at charts from the 1930's and compare them to those from the present day. You will not be able to distinguish the difference. Consider the implications of this.

[Anonymous No.13468406]

>>13468334
If the charts are the same as they were in the 30”s then wheres the edge?

[Anonymous No.13468459]

>>13467207
>zero sum
You guys keep saying that. It's negative sum, fees and market spread make every position start out as a loser.

[Anonymous No.13468478]

>>13468406
>If the charts are the same as they were in the 30”s then wheres the edge?
Trading is a zero sum game (barring the small matter of commissions) so in order to have an edge, you simply need to be slightly better than the average trader at the skill of reading the price action. It's like playing chess in the sense that you see your opponent's pieces and they see yours. If you are slightly above the average of your typical opponent and you play enough games to take advantage of the law of large numbers, you will accumulate winnings.
As far as what the edge specifically is, that's asking how do you get better than the average trader. Getting better at any skill is a matter of deliberate practice with the intent to get better. Trade, learn from your mistakes, read quality literature like Al Brooks, lose money and figure out what the fuck happened. Do that long enough and you'll learn a whole lot of what to do and what not to do. The precise details are contingent on your personality. My specialty is spotting reversals and fading. I'm a contrarian trader. That doesn't work for everybody and many beginners find trend following easier but experience will be the guide.

[Anonymous No.13468494]

>>13468459
>>zero sum
>You guys keep saying that. It's negative sum, fees and market spread make every position start out as a loser.
It's generally considered zero sum because you are trading against the fees are extremely low, zero, or even rebated with market making and you are playing against other participants rather than the house. Poker and sports betting are other examples of this where you are betting against the other players but they are considered negative sum since the house take is usually so high.

[Anonymous No.13468502]

>>13468459
It's the opposite since the average price of stocks goes up over time. Uhh.. right?

[Anonymous No.13468520]

>>13466561
>Anton Kreil
If that guy is so rich from trading, why does he need to sell training programs?

[Anonymous No.13468539]

>>13468502
>It's the opposite since the average price of stocks goes up over time. Uhh.. right?
It gets tricky but trading being zero sum doesn't require all traders to have bought in at the same time. The bottom line is in order for someone to make money, somebody else has to lose. The person making or losing could have been the first person to enter the market, the last person, the middle, entries separated by as many years as you care to imagine. Dividends complicates things and people try to be pedantic but zero sum is a much closer model for trading than negative sum since we would reserve the latter notion for obvious things like slot machines, lottery, and roulette where the odds are definitely against you and there's nothing you can practically do to change that. Positive sum might be something like a mutually beneficial trade between countries. Index investing as a distinction from trading might be viewed as positive sum taking dividends into account if you squint enough.

[Anonymous No.13468547]

>>13467048
>Care to share these better forums?
i know for a fact elite trader is one of them.
https://futures.io/
this^ is another one i am also pretty sure he is talking about. There are a few others as well desu.

I only found those by searching for questions that were answered no where else though. Example; There is a formula floating around on Elite Trader for Kelly criterion on multiple semi-correlated assets that you wont find anywhere else.

[Anonymous No.13468558]

>>13468520
This. Always this. Anyone selling you a how-to of 'how to be as rich as I am' ironically needs the money and can fuck right off

These people sell an image, and that's all.

[Anonymous No.13468586]

>>13468558
There are few fundamental things that every trader must know. For anybody reading this that cares, those things are firstly support and resistance. You must be able to articulate what those two things are and find them on a chart. Secondly you need to understand that most of the time the chart is a random walk that is just as likely to go up as go down. Thirdly you get your edge when you can spot those fleeting moments where the price is a bit more likely something like 70% to go in one direction over the other.
Internalize those three concepts and put in enough practice to be able to spot those three things without having to think about it and you will be a successful trader. No guru is going to be a father figure or give you a secret formula beyond that. I realize this sounds babby tier to the OG's on here but some people haven't figured it out yet.

[Anonymous No.13468620]

>>13468586
>Secondly you need to understand that most of the time the chart is a random walk that is just as likely to go up as go down
zoom out.

does this look like random walk to you? this is LTC/BTC. but pretty much every chart ever (with exception of forex), on a high enough time looks something like this - parabolic rise + crash but in reverse, bottom out period then continue new cycle. It's not random. Markets are dictated by human behaviour. Are human's random? no. So why would markets be.

[Anonymous No.13468683]

Lol @ thinking that market spread and fees are so small that you can call trading zero sum.
A multi billion industry lives off of fees and spread but it's negligible for tradets? Lol.
Fees (rake) in poker is also not negligible at all. Actually, there would be at least double the number of winning players if the house didn't take their cut. It's absolutely significant.

[Anonymous No.13468709]

Anton Kreil also highlights this in one of his talks; trading platforms want you to trade as much as posiible, while the truth is, profitable traders go through stretches of time where there simply aren't any good trading opportunities.
They also love people believing in meme lines.

[Anonymous No.13468727]

Since markets are whale dominated, and whales know about meme line theory too, they can paint meme lines for retail traders. Finding an edge in trading is hard, you have to be totally dedicated.

[Anonymous No.13468752]

>>13466970
She was walking fine til she saw you, and is about to turn around and flee.

[Anonymous No.13468762]

>>13468620
>zoom out.
You are confused what it means to say a chart is a random walk. Typically any chart has a 50/50 directional probability of making an equidistant move up or down so If I randomly pick a time to buy and I put an OCO order 5% above and below the price then walk away, I'm as likely to be long or short when I get back. However, there are fleeting moments when the odds are not 50/50 and if you are skilled at spotting this you have your edge. When you "zoom out" as you say, you are averaging the aggregate movement together over a long time frame which takes into account the 50/50 odds along with the times when the chart on a micro scale is more likely to go in a particular direction.
Most of the time, random buys will have a 50/50 chance of going up or down. And if we're talking about inexperienced traders, the buys are hard to distinguish from random or worse which is who I was directing the comment at.
If you want your account to achieve an upward trajectory, buy when the price is likely to rise and make sure you sell when you are in profit.
>>13468683
>Fees (rake) in poker is also not negligible at all.
That was the point. Poker despite being player against player is still negative sum due to the rake and the rake is quite significant. Sports betting just the same. In comparison, the fees for trading are miniscule and can even be zero or negative for makers on exchanges like BitMEX. Hell, tier 8 taker fees on Binance paid with BNB are 0.03%. That's $3 on a $10,000 trade. Literally negligible and that's the non-derivative exchange with by far the highest non-fake volume.
The bottom line is the fees are tiny and the real hurdle to making money is being better than the average trader. Figure that out and the fees won't matter.
>>13468709
>trading platforms want you to trade as much as posiible
Figure out your edge and only trade when the odds are in your favor. What the exchange wants is irrelevant. And, yeah, meme lines are basically worthless.

[Anonymous No.13468770]

>>13468727
>Since markets are whale dominated, and whales know about meme line theory too, they can paint meme lines for retail traders. Finding an edge in trading is hard, you have to be totally dedicated.
Yep. If there were some mathematical system or formula or equation and you were smart enough to figure out what it was, there would be 1000 other people also smart enough to figure it out thus rendering the system moot since there would be no one to take the other side of the trade. That's the sad thing about most beginners, they don't want to accept this. Learning to trade takes practice, not finding the right indicator or meme line. I don't use any meme lines at all, ever and I beat the shit out of the market.

[Anonymous No.13468789]

I respect Anton and I understand what he's trying to say. Basically the brokers are trying to fuck over noobs and get as much as money from them as fast as possible before they inevitably blow up their accounts. Fine, we all get that.
Once you have this established though and you are on the lookout for the predatory shit, you still have to learn to trade and that's what I'm talking about.

[Anonymous No.13468814]

>>13468762
>Typically any chart has a 50/50 directional probability of making an equidistant move up or down so If I randomly pick a time to buy and I put an OCO order 5% above and below the price then walk away, I'm as likely to be long or short when I get back. However, there are fleeting moments when the odds are not 50/50 and if you are skilled at spotting this you have your edge. When you "zoom out" as you say, you are averaging the aggregate movement together over a long time frame which takes into account the 50/50 odds along with the times when the chart on a micro scale is more likely to go in a particular direction.

ok? so what? that only matters if you are trading on small time frames.

[Anonymous No.13468826]

>>13468814
>ok? so what? that only matters if you are trading on small time frames.
Price action is fractal in nature which is why all time frames are almost impossible to distinguish. Studies have been done where professional traders are presented with charts on different time frames and cannot tell what the time frames are with a better than chance level of accuracy. Not only between different time frames but different decades like comparing the 1930's to the 2010's.
That's to say this, on any time frame, be it the monthly, the yearly, the 5 minute chart, what have you, any time frame that remotely matters to a retail trader (that's every single one of us having and reading this conversation)...
>Typically any chart has a 50/50 directional probability of making an equidistant move up or down so If I randomly pick a time to buy and I put an OCO order 5% above and below the price then walk away, I'm as likely to be long or short when I get back. However, there are fleeting moments when the odds are not 50/50 and if you are skilled at spotting this you have your edge. When you "zoom out" as you say, you are averaging the aggregate movement together over a long time frame which takes into account the 50/50 odds along with the times when the chart on a micro scale is more likely to go in a particular direction.

[Anonymous No.13468834]

>>13468826
>Price action is fractal in nature which is why all time frames are almost impossible to distinguish.
kek bullshit. I'll prove it to you right now. Take a random screenshot of bitcoin 15 min and a random screenshot of the 4 hour then post it. I am 100% certain I'll be able to tell you which is which.

[Anonymous No.13468851]

>t. bunch of pajeets arguing how to trade their 200$ portfolio

[Anonymous No.13468907]

>>13468826
>when the chart on a micro scale
Maybe this is the confusing part. When I say "micro" scale, I mean micro in context of the time frame of the chart. So a yearly chart would be one candle to the next so a yearly candle.
>kek bullshit. I'll prove it to you right now. Take a random screenshot of bitcoin 15 min and a random screenshot of the 4 hour then post it.
I could tell the bitcoin chart in my sleep and so could you. Then there's the fact that you'd have a 50/50 chance so even if you got it right you could have just as well flipped a coin. I don't argue anecdotes though, all I care about is statistical fact and the scientific method so I'll defer to the studies that have been done and get my answers from there. You should probably do the same. Here's something to play with though. A single unnamed security, two charts of wildly different time frames. Cropped so the grid doesn't give anything away. What do you think?

[Anonymous No.13468912]

>>13468834
Go ahead try! lets see if those studies are right!

Personally, I think the studies are correct! TA has its uses but ppl put WAY to much faith in being able to predict the future from past actions. Why not predict the future with things that that are planned to happen? With forex/stocks you can do that...In crypto about the only thing you can predict is the “halfining”.

[Anonymous No.13468923]

>>13468907
Top = Long time frame
Bottom = Short
Did I win?

[Anonymous No.13468951]

>>13468923
The top is the 1 minute AAPL chart. The bottom is the daily. I had to find a spot where there was minimal gapping on open as that isn't germane to the question of the fractal nature of charts and the studies do the same thing so I don't feel so bad about it.

[Anonymous No.13468962]

>>13468951
>there are fleeting moments when the odds are not 50/50 and if you are skilled at spotting this you have your edge
what do you use to spot those moments?

[Anonymous No.13468990]

>>13468951
Consider the fact that there are 1440 of those top candles for every single one of the bottom candles and it starts to get interesting to think about.
>>13468962
I'm a contrarian trader so I trade pullbacks and reversals. There are many little things I look for that I couldn't even articulate them all but one obvious tip off is if a price starts to dive down "fast" and there are more than 3 or so bear candles that are unusually long and have very little overlap, after about the third candle the odds of a bullish pullback start to rise so I'll throw a buy in. Same when it's shooting up. Look at any mooning coin and notice how it pulls back every few candles. When the candles start getting long and aren't overlapping, the pullback is imminent so time to short. If you want to get real slick with it, you can just buy the bottom of that pullback on the mooning chart. That's what works for me. Not saying it will work for you as it's different for everybody and there is no hard and fast formula. The only pertinent factor is practice and experience.
Also, most newer traders have better luck with trading with the trend. Personally I fail utterly at this as the surest way to make a coin reverse after it's been going up all day is for me to buy it. You may have better luck.

[Anonymous No.13469000]

What the fuck is an option can someone explain mhow that works, as in what does strike and delta and all those things mean?

[Anonymous No.13469021]

>>13469000
Like I don't understand how option trading for btc works but I wanna try and learn

[Anonymous No.13469055]

>>13469000
Imagine some stock you think will go up in price. Now imagine you think you know how far up in price it will go. Now imagine you think you know how soon it will go up. So if the stock is $100 today you think it will be $130 within 3 months. So you buy an option for $5 with a strike price of e.g. $110 that expires in 3 months. So you paid $5 for the privilege of being able buy the stock for $110 anytime in the next 3 months. If the stock goes up to $130, and you paid $5 and the option is for $110 then you made $130 - $110 - $5 = $15. So you tripled your money. You paid $5 and you received $15. That $110 was the strike price. Options is an easy way to essentially leverage your money without having to worry about a catastrophic loss. If the stock doesn't go where you think it will go, you just lose the cost of the option you paid in this case $5.
This all get more complicated when you factor in time value of the option and also note you have to buy 100 options at a time. But this is the gist of the whole thing for Calls. Puts are the same deal except you think the price is going down.
Here's the thing though, you will never get it unless you try. Get Robinhood or whatever and buy some options then see how it plays out. You can get 100 options for some stocks for a total of like $10. It's easy. You'll learn real fast I promise.