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Anonymous Mon Mar 25 15:53:05 2019 No.13116999 [Reply] [Original]

thoughts on this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Anonymous Mon Mar 25 15:54:56 2019 No.13117017

>>13116999
nobody gives a fuck anymore, crypto is dead.

Yes, all of it. Nobody is using it for anything meaningful besides variations of Ponzi schemes.

Even after all these years of endless hyping and shilling partnerships no real world usage for any crypto out there, not even by a long shot. The most optimistic scenario is a decade away.

And to top it all off, now that even the normies are onto the fake volume BS that exchanges have been pushing since forever, nobody is willing to get back in.

Also Tether is about to implode, it is no longer tethered to the US. Not that it ever was, but now even the devs admit it.

To sum it all up, it's all a worthless scam, soon to go the way of the dodo bird.

Funniest bit is to watch how various coins and their support groups argue and bicker endlessly about which coin is better, whereas in the actual fact they are all just different shades of the same shit.

I'm gonna enjoy watching it all crash and burn. For real this time..

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 15:56:33 2019 No.13117034 >>13116999 TLDR? I skimmed it but its basically betting 20% of your stack every time?

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:07:32 2019 No.13117148 >>13116999 It worked for me on dice sites but then ditched it because I was greedy and aimed for big payouts. Never tried it in trading tho, thanks for reminding me about it

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:12:24 2019 No.13117179 >>13117034 >basically betting 20% of your stack every time? no that's not at all what it says to do lmao

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:15:07 2019 No.13117201 >>13116999 I don’t have time to explain it, but yes, it’s worth studying and has a lot of applications in trading.

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:15:45 2019 No.13117207 >>13116999 it only works when you can reliably estimate the net gain of an investment or gamble

Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:16:59 2019 No.13117215

>>13117201
can you explain how you are supposed to calculate the probability of a trade being succesful? how do you plug in those numbers?

I saw a podcast with Ben Thorp who said it's best to just be very conservative but still... it seems super subjective.

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:17:16 2019 No.13117217 >>13117017 Sorry m8, the only pastas are allowed in /biz/ are LINK pastas, try again.

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 16:28:06 2019 No.13117312 >>13117215 I mean ed thorp not ben thorp. Freudian slip . that's my bros name lul

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 17:26:22 2019 No.13117821 bump

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 17:30:01 2019 No.13117847 >muh DCA ugh

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 17:33:29 2019 No.13117869 >>13116999 Your bets are dynamic, and calculated using a specific formula or some shit. TL;DR not worth the effort and even less when talking about crypto, this is a shitshow.

Anonymous Mon Mar 25 18:10:11 2019 No.13118209

after quite a bit of digging i found this;

"Here is a brand new (to the public) Kelly formula. It was designed for traders, not for gamblers. Trading is not a casino game. It doesn't have fixed probabilities and fixed payouts. Kelly formulae designed for casino games do not travel well when imported into trading. All that said, this new formula is presented "as is". There will be no history, no derivation, no explanation, no hints now or later.

Enjoy.

Nk = ( s1*s2*s2 - s1*s1*s3 )/( s2*s2*s2 + s1*s1*s4 - 2*s1*s2*s3 ) ,
where
Nk is the estimation of the true Kelly fraction produced by the new formula ;
S1 == sum[ Ri ]_i=1toN ;
S2 == sum[ Ri*Ri ]_i=1toN ;
S3 == sum[ Ri*Ri*Ri ]_i=1toN ;
S4 == sum[ Ri*Ri*Ri*Ri ]_i=1toN.

"
can some math fag break this down? is it better? I don;t understand it

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 18:19:01 2019 No.13118302 >pure probability theory combined with wealth management >applicable to unregulated speculation there are no fixed odds in crypto even binary options aren't 'fixed' this doesn't take into account risk this doesn't take into account time

>>	Anonymous [O1G] Mon Mar 25 20:03:54 2019 No.13119187 >>13117034 seems to me it depends on the specific odds

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 20:08:23 2019 No.13119220 >>13118302 this, this, this, this and this

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 20:10:01 2019 No.13119233 >>13119220 >>13118302 wtf is wrong with you? are you guys retarded?

>>	Anonymous Mon Mar 25 20:12:25 2019 No.13119242 >>13116999 I actually been applying the Kelly criterion on horse races. I managed to win 6 out of 6 races a couple of weeks ago totalling $500 for the day. It's easy money

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