/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Maurice Augustus !eQoWK/fZ52 No.12047244]

In December 2021 one bitcoin will cost 48 315 USD*.
*assuming no other coin will dethrone it

Let me explain how I arrived at this valuation.
First, we focus solely on fundamentals. Hash power, number of addresses, reward halving times or daily transaction volume are not fundamentals. Nor is the influence of Tether or other stablecoins or SEC dis/approval. The only thing which matters long-term is value proposition. Value proposition of bitcoin is
>fast and reliable peer to peer transfer of value over distances
No other service can transfer value over distances as fast or as reliably as bitcoin.

Right now, bitcoin has a 57bil USD market capitalization. The closest thing to bitcoin, in terms of value proposition, is gold. Gold is estimated to have market capitalization of 7.6tril USD. Something which holds value relatively well but is unable to transfer it fast or reliably over distances is currently valued 134 times more than bitcoin. That's pants-on-head retarded. If bitcoin were to be valued only at 1/10th of gold, one piece would cost 40 000USD.

[Maurice Augustus !eQoWK/fZ52 No.12047249]

>>12047244
Trolololo from bitcointalk.org took even more abstracted fundamentals approach and charted crypto market capitalization as a simple log function. Here it is
>wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809)
and pic is that function over time compared against historical price chart (unfortunately Trolololo no longer updates it). If we assume BTC is 50% of the crypto pie, we arrive at these USD prices per piece
>Dec 2017 3 021
>Dec 2018 6 699
>Dec 2019 13 766
>Dec 2020 26 482
>Dec 2021 48 135
Obviously bitcoin is not appreciating in nice exponentional line. As a new asset class, its value swings above and below projection and these swings become smaller as time passes. Right now we are coming down. This is amplified by general financial recession which already hit the oldworld stock markets and some countries with weak currencies. All assets go down during the first few months of biggest uncertainty and bitcoin is no exception. Cryptos may start to rise in price in a few months, but more likely they will continue to depress for most of 2019. However this trend should reverse in 2020 and in 2021 nocoiners are gonna be on suicide watch once again.

We now come to the asterisk part. There's actually no guarantee bitcoin will remain the dominant crypto. It's important to put your eggs in several baskets. Don't leave your funds on exchanges, don't get lured in by overpromising shitcoins and most importantly - be patient.

Feel free to screencap this for 2021 nocoiner told-you-so collage.