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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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11488460 No.11488460 [Reply] [Original]

280 mil tickets sold for the last drawing. I bet that number almost doubles for this one. Do you think it will roll over? Chances are 1 in 302 mil to win. If 500mil tickets are sold, does that mean that there is like a -60% chance of it rolling over? Help a brainlett out. I bought a ticket.

>> No.11488493

>>11488460
Each individual ticket is 1 in 302 million, so while the odds of someone winning increase with each ticket sold it's impossible to figure out the exact odds due to the number of times people will get duplicate lines. I'm sure someone could write a program to make a decent guess though.

>> No.11488547

>>11488493
Actually, the answer can be approximated with statistics. The number of tickets that need to be sold for there to be a 50% chance of it rolling over is 3*10^7*Log(3*10^7)= 2 ish billion tickets

>> No.11488559

>>11488547
However, getting the answer to ops question accurately is more than I care to do. But it can be done

>> No.11488570

>>11488547
Nerd

>> No.11488623

>>11488570
Actually I did it wrong. I'm just in my couch so forgive me. We reach fifty percent rollover probability at log(2)*3*10^7. If 500 mil tickets are sold the probability of rollover is e^(-5/3) which is about 0.2. so about 20% chance of rollover op.

>> No.11488733

They want it to keep rolling over, they'll just keep making more money.

>> No.11489797

>>11488460
My first time playing the lotto.
If I win, I'm giving all of my friends a million bucks and I'll buy Hell, MI.
https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2016/03/11/hell-mi-is-for-sale

>> No.11490008

>>11488623
damn. so should I buy more?

>> No.11490776

Leaf here, How do I buy a ticket?

>> No.11491127

>>11489797
Don't forget the government will take a huge portion of your taxes. leaving you around 500 million.

>> No.11491151

>>11490776
fuck off we're full

>> No.11491159
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11491159

>>11491127

Imagine all the shitcoins you could buy with 500 million

>> No.11491317

I’d hire a personal therapist because my life is a mess mentally
I’d then write a will that it all gets put in a trust and goes to the next Cicada winner if my family is suspected of foul play. Then I’d set up funds and live off the interest in Fuckoff, Kentucky

>> No.11491377

>>11491127
I can buy Hell Michigan for $900k. And I have less than 100 friends I give a shit about. This would leave me with about $400m to do whatever I want in Hell.

>> No.11491478
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11491478

>>11491151
rude

>> No.11491497

>>11491478
only burgers can redeem tickets