Predictions

[None !VaLUE00HAo No.1142839]

I predict Trump will not become president of the United States.

Reasons: I am talking objectively as someone only interested in making money here. Even if Trump wins the Republican primaries, his views are unpopular for a variety of reasons and will bring out liberals in droves while deterring moderates.

[Anonymous No.1142875]

>>1142839
You are wrong, all polls and current votes show trump leading nationally and is especially liked by independents and moderate dema in a matchup vs Shillary. He has increased voter turnout amongst indpts and republicans tremendously while Shillary has seen some of the lowest dem turnouts in history, which is telling considering shes running against a dinosaur aged baldling jewish communist.
To make this biz related i would say that the current betting sites have her at such favorable odds that the risk is not worth a bet, neither is Trump for that matter. Had you bet a few months ago however, Trump would definitly have been a good risk/reward bet.

Pic related

[Anonymous No.1142881]

>>1142875
Whoops I actually meant to post this image, though the other is also very ingn statistically.

[Anonymous No.1142905]

Definitely wrong.

I'm about as anti-Trump as they get, but he's already won and anyone saying otherwise is just delusional.

Contrary to what you may believe he is exactly what the majority of people want; a loud mouthed retard just like 75% of Americans, but he's "rich and powerful" so this somehow validates them. He's an entertainer first and politician last, and sheep love to follow anyone with charisma.

There will certainly be record turn out FOR Trump, but you can't count on any against him.
Hilary just can't incite a huge turnout like Obama did, because she's poisoned by so many scandals.

but anyway >>>/pol/

[Anonymous No.1142931]

>>1142839
Check out the betting websites:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

It's going to be either him or Hillary.

[Anonymous No.1142934]

> not wanting to pay 0% capital gains tax

[Anonymous No.1142947]

the general theme is that if he wins he gets assassinated and martial law is declared

[Anonymous No.1142962]

>>1142839

Start using the future of prediction markets, you uneducated savages.

[Anonymous No.1142971]

>>1142839

Trump really has the only good ideas on how to fix America.

Sure it will hurt the faggot corps that rely on making everything offshore by slave people an re-selling it here, but that model makes no sense once everyone domestically is unemployed and has no income anyway.

[Anonymous No.1142987]

>>1142962

>tfw BTC request won't clear for another 1-3 business days

I'm gonna miss the fucking train

[None !VaLUE00HAo No.1143092]

>>1142839
>>1142881
Interesting, but these facts mainly concern the primaries. I am not basing this prediction on the polls, it is based on the fundamentals of American politics. If Trump wins the primaries the Democrats will use this to galvanize their own voters.

>>1142905
People want different things in their loudmouths, Trump is not everyone's loudmouth. I expect Democrats will turn out in droves in reaction if he wins the primaries.

I am going to perform some amateur stock market research and make other predictions tomorrow, I just wanted my first prediction to be a sure thing.

>>1142931
Bookies are not 100% accurate.

>>1142934
My bets won't affect the outcome (unless you take into account the butterfly effect) and do not reflect my opinion of the candidates.

>>1142947
This would be a black swan event, I am only human and can't predict such things.

>>1142962
Thanks. Though I maintain a healthy skepticism over bitcoins I will look into it.

>>1142971
Concerning economic policy, I do not believe tariffs are ideal as they stifle competition, though it is not an ideal world and some arguments could be made in favor of setting up tariffs against repressive regimes, free trade can also help open up these countries to the rest of the world.

[Anonymous No.1143109]

>>1142971
> muh evil corporations
It's hilarious how similar you Trumptards are to Berncucks.

Not everyone is unemployed faggot.
Some of actually have nonworthless, marketable skills.

Anticapitalistic practices to save jobs for uneducated morons like you isn't going to help because everything will just become ridiculously expensive to compensate for having to pay some inbred hick 100x more to match the same efficacy you get from a chink and two way shipping.

Most places will probably go out of business or move unless America decides to massively erode worker rights. In which case, congratulations you'll effectively be doing spic work for spic pay, which you could do right now if you weren't a lazy shit.

[Anonymous No.1143490]

>tfw bet 2 bitcoins on Trump in Iowa
>lost

fucking corn nigger scum voted for the ratface. cost me a cool grand. Trump should've won that, wouldn't surprise me if cruz cheated.

Doesn't matter though. I'm dumping $10,000 in November against Hillary.

[Anonymous No.1143503]

>>1143109
You have no marketable skill an Indian won't do for 2/3 the pay on an H1B Visa. Jerb stealing isn't just about shovels and trinket factories

[Anonymous No.1143504]

>>1143490
Bet more on florida nigga,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/florida-ohio-republican-primary-preview/


i think he will win

[Anonymous No.1143509]

>>1142881
As much as I hate to admit it, as a Sanders supporter I would rather vote for Trump than Clinton. As batshit insane as he is, at least he's not a globalization cuck.

[Anonymous No.1143514]

>>1142905
>I'm about as anti-Trump as they get
>>>/trash/

[Anonymous No.1143520]

>>1142839
trump bought the election for more than a billion dollars from stupid ia

[Anonymous No.1143524]

>>1142839
The silent majority will be out in droves voting for trump. 75% voter turnout.

[Anonymous No.1143530]

>>1143509
>as a Sanders supporter
lol wtf r u doing on this board? seriously though, this board is the antithesis of what he preaches.

[Anonymous No.1143544]

>>1143524
This. I'm voting Trump and I'm pretty quiet about it. I got shouted down a few times when I brought up some good points he makes. "BUT HE HATES MEXICANS!" "YOU CANT SERIOUSLY THINK HE WONT BANKRUPT AMERICA LIKE ALL OF HIS BUSINESSES!"

So I'm at the point now where I've realized the ignorance amongst the anti-Trump crowd is so great that I really don't care to discuss with them anymore. Not much of a discussion anyway. If they had any worthwhile criticism of the guy, they'd be able to have a decent conversation instead of shitslinging

[Anonymous No.1143552]

>>1143544
he's probably one of the most anti federal candidates we've had with strong nationalist rhetoric.
my domestic concerns are expansion of the federal government. Erosion of constitutional rights and democratic process.
I also feel he is a small man, who may be goaded into unnecessary conflict internationally.
Rubio is the only guy I pick ahead of him though.
Cruz has a palpable layer of slime on him the liberals are disgusting.

[Anonymous No.1143568]

>>1143552
I don't think he'd be too big on government expansion, actually I'd say having dealt with construction permits and such on huge properties, licences etc he would be keen to cut it back in non-defence areas. And I can't think of any of his positions that indicate hr wants to erode constitutional rights.

[Anonymous No.1143579]

>>1142905
/pol/ is an echo chamber is impossible to discuss politics there with out being called a thousand names and repeatedly told to go back to rddit.

I am a /pol/ack searching for new places to discuss politics so if you have a problem with it just please kindly fuck of to he next crypto shill thread

this board is a waste of internet resources for the most part anyways

[Anonymous No.1143582]

>>1142934
and then they say Bernie is the guy promising free shit

[Anonymous No.1143583]

>>1143582
>not stealing my money = giving me free shit

[Anonymous No.1143585]

>>1143109
Damn bro you explained it in a way I never could.

>>1143503
muh fear
muh jubz

you got beat the fuck out take as a lesson and learn Nigger

[Anonymous No.1143593]

>>1143585
Do you have anything worthwhile to add to the thread or just "muh x" shitposts? Go back to pol

[Anonymous No.1143597]

>>1142839
I think trump is just used as a diversion to soften the other canidates and choose the other shitters.

[Anonymous No.1143599]

>>1143530
Not at all. Sanders merely advocates for a competitive market that isn't controlled by monopolistic interests. If you think it's good for the free market to have everything controlled by a few big names that also happen to share board members, then there's something wrong with you.

[Anonymous No.1143602]

>>1143599
Go fuck yourself. He literally said he does not believe in capitalism at the first debate

[Anonymous No.1143605]

>>1143602
Capitalism and the free market are two orthogonal concepts. Capitalism is named after the capitalists who are essentially feudal lords that do whatever they want because they happen to own money, even if it hurts innovation and competition. It's an imperfect implementation of the free market.

[Anonymous No.1143618]

>>1143605
holy shit you are retarded


THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A MONOPOLY WITHOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION


i really hope i am replying to b8, he is a 74 year old socialist jew, capitalism fucking made this country great

[Anonymous No.1143630]

>>1143618
ancap pls

When you put a bunch of unregulated business interests together in a power vacuum, a few of them will always try to one-up the competitors by subverting regulation to their advantage. An unregulated free market is an oxymoron because as soon you remove all the checks and balances, one of the players will create new rules to their advantage.

You aren't actually dumb enough to think corruption happens in a vacuum, are you? All of this shit is being driven by business interests which have been allowed to grow too powerful.

[Anonymous No.1143633]

>>1143630
read history,

but seriously, bernie sanders is literally the antithesis of this board, i don't know why you are here

[Anonymous No.1143635]

>>1143633
You mean
>read the parts of history that I like and that I've specifically selected because they make me feel good inside for agreeing with me
Typical.

You don't have to deny reality and live in some sort of randian fairytale land to be interested in business and entrepreneurship. This is my board too.

[Anonymous No.1143641]

>>1142839
I don't know man, I felt the same way but I've been seeing a lot of people rooting for trump who I would have never thought would ever support someone on the right.

I still feel like he will lose, but part of me just can't fully right the guy off because he seems way more popular than the media makes him out to be.

[Anonymous No.1143642]

>>1143504
>http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/florida-ohio-republican-primary-preview/

He's at 91% chance of winning on Fairlay. So, not even worth it. Iowa was like 55%. I know once the general happens, the retards will bet against him, that's when I strike.

[Anonymous No.1143656]

>>1143635
this is some of the best b8 i have ever seen on biz

[Anonymous No.1143799]

>>1143509
>posting on a business and finance board
>against free trade

Lmao fuck outta here

[Anonymous No.1143812]

>>1143605
>free markets are good
>>1143630
>free markets are bad

>Bernie Sanders supporter
Yep, it checks out!

[Anonymous No.1143906]

>>1143656
m7 come up with a real answer, you looking a bit silly hear. A bit like a grumpy child that's been told to eat some broccoli.

[Anonymous No.1143941]

>>1143633
>Anon A says free markets eventually lead to corruption in government that lead to stricter market regulations
>Anon B says to read history
>We currently live in a strictly regulated market

Okay, I read history, it says any nation that had a free market eventually lead to the strictly regulated markets we live in now. What next senpai?

[Anonymous No.1144122]

>>1143799
>>1143812
Free markets != businesses get to do whatever they want. The purpose of regulation is to ensure businesses have to compete and prevent them from subverting the market to their advantage.

[Anonymous No.1144284]

>>1144122
No shit. Stop with the anarchy strawman.

The fact remains: you cant be pro-free market and anti-capitalism. You and Bernie Sanders are just incognito communists. You both want so much regulation that government ends up effectively in control of the means of production

[Anonymous No.1144301]

>>1144284
>you cant be pro-free market and anti-capitalism
What, because you just said so? This isn't an either-or problem, dumbass.

[Anonymous No.1144335]

>>1142905
Trumps policies are completely pro-business pro-trading. He's about as conservative centrist as they come. WE'RE the evil wealth manipulators that bernouts can't stop shitposting about. Why would you be anti-Trump on a business board?

"Free" trade only helps the megarich Soros types, (((people))) that had it from the beginning and are set up to make a billion in a day during an economic collapse. I can almost guarantee that no-one who comes to this board is in that situation or ever will be in that situation. NAFTA/TPP hurts small business and a lot of markets, very bad! Believe me!

[Anonymous No.1144502]

>>1144335
1 sanders is against free trade.
2 trump doesn't have policies

try harder

[Anonymous No.1144518]

>>1144502
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions

burn one for bernie for me tho, I gotta go to work

[Anonymous No.1144562]

>>1142905
>Poisoned by so many scandals

So many people overlook how important it is to be a well liked person. Your career will never get anywhere no matter how strong your convictions are as a politician unless you are liked by many people.

The problem Hilary has is the same problem Romney had. Nobody fucking likes her, she is a shapeshifting faceless shadow of a human being who's hollow laugh fills hundreds of souls with dread at what might, or could be once her slimy tentacles grasp anything remotely close to power.

It isn't wrong to like someone with charisma though. In a political system where you have to choose bad over terrible it's better to accept a shitty president who at first glance doesn't want to devour your soul, over an alien who masquerades as a human.

We're fucked either way, but at least Trump won't make us look like limp dick pussies while he fucks the country in the ass.

[None !VaLUE00HAo No.1144777]

Shake Shack

High quality fast food served characteristically at parks, seems to appeal to middle classes casually strolling around tourist areas in city centers. Their IPO caused a stir in 2015 and it shot up from $21 to over $40 eventually reaching $92 before the bubble burst and it gradually moved down to just below $40.

This current report a few days ago caused a small drop back below $40 again due to a failure to meet forecasts.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001620533-16-000168%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2016%5C03%5C07%5C&CoName=SHAKE+SHACK+INC%2E&FormType=8-K&RcvdDate=3%2F7%2F2016&pdf=

Its current market cap is $1.23 billion and its revenue was $190.6 million in 2015. In 2015 there was a net loss of $8.776 million, but sans "non-controlling interests" and "Pre-opening costs" this rises to a net income of $8.554 million. It has 75 restaurants set to increase to around 500, so a very rough estimate of its future net income after achieving most of its planned growth might be 8.554*500/75= $57.027 million. A p/e of 20 is about average for the stock market so an even less accurate estimate of its market cap might be $1140 million. Close to the actual market cap, though it will take years to grow and I have not taken into account the time value of money, so this is an overestimation.

A fast growing company like this is difficult to valuate, I am a complete amateur, obviously the pros know better than me.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/07/shake-shack-reports-fourth-quarter-results.html

I can't really make any accurate predictions here (besides the obvious like it won't jump to over $150 tomorrow), if I had to I would say it is a bit undervalued, but I'm kind of speculating that other speculators will see that it is lower than its initial price of $47 more than anything which is not reliable enough to put money on. I will continue watching this, familiarize myself with other companies, learn more and come back to this with better ideas.

[Anonymous No.1144824]

I predict RADS is going to boom

Reasons: read up on the thread on btctalk and check the present and past volumes. High volumes. Low ranked coin on mktcap and just 2 mil coins.

Gonna get pumped Im sure

[Anonymous No.1145057]

>>1144301
Explain how you can have freemarkets without capitalism

[Anonymous No.1145074]

>>1144777
I like it. Shak is always full. if it was closer I'd eat there more frequently.
They have dog food for your dog and people food for you.
This is definitely a growth stock. not a value play with a p/e of twenty.

[Anonymous No.1145151]

>>1145057
with ..socialism?

[Anonymous No.1145161]

>>1145151
Lmao nice try, Bernie

[Anonymous No.1145167]

>>1142839
Hillary seems to have the candidacy on lock.
She is reviled as an arch fiend defacto pure evil in many parts of the country. her tentacles run long and deep. Spawning and infesting hosts far beyond the reach of her claws.

Hillary took black gold money and bought the blacks with it. Having 100% of the super delegates bought and paid for before the election even started.

With Barack Obama setting the precedent of rule of law through administrative action, Hillary is poised to reward all the long term players with the long awaited authoritarian expansion and crushing bureaucracy.
She hedges her bets politically.
Wins net her huge gains, for every policy she enacts, hundreds more unilateral soft policies are issued.
Every failure of the law is an excuse to introduce new administrative measures to "handle" the situation through the well connected nest of favors.

You must kill the sire brood with fire.

[Anonymous No.1145222]

>>1145151
Mathematics is the study of relationships

If Mr Sanders truly berned with sympathy he would at least do the math.

But the math is so egregiously impossible to argue for with supply constraints and Maximal demand.
Any reasonable distribution would be arbitrary.

100 steaks for 100 people
and 1 glass of wine or 1 drop for 100 people.
and a splash of brandy for desert or a finger dab for the 100
and 1000 loaves of bread for everyone.


https://mises.org/library/impossibility-socialist-economy-or-cat-cannot-swim-atlantic-ocean

[Anonymous No.1145227]

>>1144301
you seem like a massive idiot.

[Anonymous No.1145761]

>>1142881
You guys realise that gaining a plurality of a subsection of Republican Latinos in one exit poll (with a horrible sample size, no less) isn't indicative of what will happen in a general/presidential election, right?

He is performing horribly among minorities in the vast majority of polls and those who think he will 'win the latino vote' are only kidding themselves. It isn't going to happen.

God, the amount of bs in that infographic is unbelievable.

[None !VaLUE00HAo No.1146780]

>>1145074
Yes, my valuation assumes its income is static. I will have to look into the mathematics behind this which probably involves the time value of money and calculus which I'm not sure I'll get.

Shak has been around long enough for me to assume it is not a fad but a good brand that is growing on people. That is true, it is a question of how fast it is growing and how accurately other investors have priced it in.

I was busy today so I will come back tomorrow with another attempted prediction and after studying valuations a little.