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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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11278676 No.11278676 [Reply] [Original]

how hard is this credit crunch going to hit us, ausbros?

>> No.11278683

>>11278676
theyre fine

>> No.11278696

>>11278676
ye gonn be rayp'd hard in yer arsehol lad

>> No.11278728
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11278728

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-04/consumers-unaware-they-have-interest-only-home-loans/9014448

Australians are so god damn retarded

>> No.11278743

Hard in the short term.
Reduced lending from royal commission. Unstable politics and rising US interest rates restricts our borrowing capacity.
Investors on interest only loans wont qualify for interest only due to tightening and will need to go to P&I, rising their costs by 30% a week.
House prices will dip. Properties that dip 15-20% risk not being renewed for finance if coming off IO loans or going for renewal due to lack of equity. Cash needs to come out of investors personal pockets. Places will be market sold and liquidated as defaults rise.

>> No.11278782

>>11278743
Remember that not many people lend over 100% of property value. If they never paid principle and borrowed at max it's a problem.
US will tighten lending to aus even further from their own companies defaulting on low interest loans they got during the gfc.
This is all ramping up now.

If labor come in and change negative gearing and capital gains tax itll amplify the problem in rough times. They will lower investor demand as investment properties arent as profitable. Removes buyers from the market and that causes less demand which means price reductions

>> No.11278862

I cannot fucking wait for the housing bubble to crash on these fkn boomers.

>> No.11278873

>>11278862
When you see dazza having to choose between a new commodore ute or a house due to credit limits you know it's nearly time to buy.

>> No.11278905

she'll be rite mate, what r u sookin about

>> No.11279204

>>11278676

We're fucked, good time to save some $$$ and get a house for cheap in a few years

>> No.11279217

>>11278743
>>11278782
>>11278862
>>11278873
>>11278728

Christ I'm getting a semi just reading this. I absolutely cannot wait.

>> No.11279231

U kunts dont know shit, housing wont pop, t.homeowner

>> No.11279233

>>11278862
That's because you're a fucking brainlet that doesn't understand how the Australian economy is all tied together into the home mortgage racket. I'll try and break it down for you as simply as possible

>majority of the Australian economy and employment consists of small to medium businesses
>those small businesses are leveraging the equity in their home loans as a line of credit
>right now the only thing keeping a lot of these businesses afloat is the credit drawn on the equity in the family home

The economy is on a precipice right now where everyone is operating on the assumption that things will pick up, were just in a "bit of a slump". Everyone is borrowing against the equity in their homes because a upturn is "just around the corner". In reality an overwhelming amount of economic activity is downstream services. All your little cafes, small bars, pop-up shops, retail outlets and food trucks. All that crap that doesn't produce anything is getting business loans backed by mommy and daddies home.

Now what happens when the housing crash hits that you're so gleefully cheerleading?

>equity evaporates from all of these "boomer" homes
>these small businesses start to fold with no equity to leverage and no more credit
>unemployment rises as businesses go into administration
>more investment properties hit the market as the owners are squeezed by the falling house prices and rising unemployment
>the businesses that were surviving can't hire or raise prices because unemployment is up, spending is down so they layoff more people and are forced to drop prices

O-oh, that sounds like ....deflation! But where does it stop? It's a domino effect that touches every corner of the Australian economy. It can't be stopped, we're now in a deflationary death spiral. Whooo!
But I'm sure you'll be ready to pounce on the housing market when this happens. Or maybe all that cash you're holding will be needed to feed yourself when you're out of a job.

>> No.11279273

>>11279233
But wait, there's more! Just to added fuel to this massive house fire

>to keep the house bubble inflated, banks have been approving loans with no deposit based on UNREALISED capital gains
>home loans approved to customers, without deposit, with existing properties on the assumption their current properties will increase in value and will have equity in the future
>24 year old train driver earning 55k a year in Sydney now has a property portfolio of $21 million because the Sydney property market will only ever go up right?

Until it doesn't. So the banks have been allowing people to effectively margin trade with leverage on the housing market. So what happens when those "unrealised capital gains" never eventuate. Kind of like now, when the Sydney market has fallen 9%? What happens when you go long with massive leverage and the price moves the opposite direction of your position?


That is the Australian housing market right now.

>> No.11279296

>>11279273
Australia btfo
Do you think it will get that bad?

>> No.11279330

>>11279296
No idea. Im hoping for a slow unwind and years and years of sideways, stagnant movement. That's the best possible scenario.

>> No.11279350

Young, ignorant, and broke bloke here, no idea what this is about. Someone fill me in?

>> No.11279363

Melbourne/Sydney, Major Canadian City's, New York, London, Paris are like the bitcoins of real estate and there are not enough to go around

>> No.11279376

>>11279350
Aus is fucked, get ready for very hard times once housing bubble pops.

>> No.11279397

>>11279233
>>11279273

I've gone full mast lads. I can't wait to see this unfold in real time to my countrymen. Oh it will glorious too see.

>> No.11279468

>>11279397
Likewise. Expecting high inflation as rba tries its best to reduce mortgage stress by lowering interest rates. AUD tanking with majority of my net wealth sitting in crypto will be a moon in my effective wealth.

>> No.11279469

Why is the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people becoming forced out of their own properties making me so happy? So many people taking out ludicrous loans to 'get their foot in the door' when it was so obvious the market was in a huge bubble. Did these people not do any fucking research? Did they not think 'hmm maybe this shitty fibro in the middle of Sydney is not worth 900K?' That was actually happening all around my area, crap houses clearing 1 mil each. God I cannot fucking wait.

>> No.11279480

What's the best way to protect your cash when the crash comes?

>> No.11279509

>>11279480
USD if you think its localised, crypto if you think that market has a future. Gold if you are a boomer.

>> No.11279510

>>11278728
>>11279233
>>11279273

I got excited about what you said, so I copypasted your post to my brother on steam to get his thoughts since he's doing an economics degree right now. He responded saying we have an extremely strong reserve bank to counteract this.

Just gonna copy paste his counter points here because I legit want to see your response to him and he's being a lazy faggot and not coming into the thread himself.

>thank god we have a reserve bank
>in fact, our reserve bank and its tools are probably one of the best, if not the best in the world
>and the reserve banks in all the other countries are totally devastated right now. If this scenario happened in europe or america or japan, their reserve bank would be fucked and powerless to respond. But our Reserve bank wont be
>no, i recognize that the housing can be a problem
just that, the reserve bank exists to correct for these issues
>anyway, he's not wrong
>im just saying, thank god we have a well functioning reserve bank that can respond to this crisis if or when it hits

Is my brother right? Is the RBA that strong right now it could prevent a lot of damage? I really want a total fucking economic collapse in this nation right now. It fucking deserves one.

>> No.11279532

>house market crashes
>pulls down the rest of the Australian economy

So whats the go bros? what should we do?

>> No.11279534

>>11279510
Hes right since most of our debt is in AUD they can lower rates to reduce mortgage stress. That will tank the AUD and cause stress in its own way since we import everything at a household level (fuel plus goods). When the aud tanks our exports will do well so its not all gloom.

>> No.11279548

>collapse will happen when labour take power
>everyone will blame them and cry about we need more mines
>Australia will fuck itself into being the new Africa

>> No.11279565

>>11279532
Probably pray for mining boom 2: electric boogaloo and if that doesn't come idk

>> No.11279583

>>11279548
>at least the chinks will stop coming

>> No.11279585

>>11279548
Correct. Shorten is a literal potato

>> No.11279586

>>11279565
I know lithium is going to have a small rise in WA, you reckon they'll get so desperate they'll start ripping out all our uranium?

>> No.11279591

>>11279565
Mining will totally boom, lower AUD value will make operations more profitable again (i.e. why China purposefully tanked theirs in the US tradewar).

Mining booming will be good for royalties and share holders but I'm not sure how many people they directly/indirectly employ anymore with all that automation.

>> No.11279607

>>11279480
>>11279509
I was just writing a similar response - USD or USD-pegged stablecoins (although maybe look at alternative to Tether in case this turns out to be a ticking timebomb). Keep in mind too that the US stock bull run is expected to end within 12-18 months, and that's going to hit everyone. Gold has traditionally been where people invest during these times, but it's difficult to predict how the masses will consider crypto next time around. I expect an extreme reaction, whichever direction.

>> No.11279610

>>11279585
Better than Liberal

>> No.11279656

>>11279510

I think his misplaced trust in the RBA is due to an underestimation of the problem we have here. We have the highest household debt-to-GDP ratio in the world now. Nearly 50% higher than the US, the majority of which is mortgage.
We have the highest debt to income ratio at near 200%. For comparison, the US is 110%, THE UK 150%. But they are far bigger economies than ours. While everyone else's debt ratios decreased following 2008, ours slowly increased even higher.

I don't think the levers are big enough to deal with a real housing bubble pop in Australia, it's just too big and I don't think our RBA is big enough to pump out the QE money or helicopter money required to save us when it goes ass up. If they do, all it will achieve is the inflation of even bigger asset bubbles down the road as we've seen in the US stock market.

>> No.11279695

>>11279607
Good we think alike anon, this whole situation isn't that complicated once you understand the pieces involved. For me I'm in crypto since my net wealth isn't worth protecting at this amount i need to grow it aggressively to be ready to take advantage of the low property/asx prices in 3- 5 years time.

My stablecoin of choice will probably be JUSD ;)

>> No.11279697

>>11279363
Unironically this. Sydney is growing at 100k people a year. Under 40k new homes built last year.

>> No.11279734

>>11279534
>>11279656

Thank you very much lads, interesting to hear all this. Shame my brother is being a lazy faggot and not entering the thread. He's always so fucking annoyingly bullish on Australia, where I see negativity and bearish attitudes all over this board in comparison. I want to see him and /biz/ duke it out in a proper debate. I can't really debate him myself on this issue since he's in his final months of a 5 year fucking degree and knows all the technical ins and out that I don't know.

Here is his fucking responses.

>thing is, you talk about australia being shit, but the worlds financial situation is also terribly shit, and a lot worse than australia in a lot of ways australia was the ONLY country to not experience a recession in the 2008, and that recession fucking paralyzed the rest of the world
>if a downturn hits the rest of the world right now, alll of their central banks will be totally powerless to respond. It will be a huge crisis
>ok. I never said hes wrong, just that our RBA has a capacity to respond, whereas the central banks in the rest of the world are powerless to respond
>but anyway, i doubt that there will be a big housing pop, even if prices are going down right now. There is too much fundamental demand to live in the big cities in australia
>if they go down, people will just buy them up
>but i havnt done research, so i dont know, and at the moment, dont care

>> No.11279736

>>11279607
At the moment, I've been trading DAI which has been performing fairly well as a stablecoin. It has some pretty big exchanges that it's listed on as well.

>> No.11279767

>>11279734
How the fuck can houses be afforded by the working class in Australia tho? Surely something has to change i.e. A bubble popping?

>> No.11279779

Daily reminder:
The government will confiscate your savings to bail out failing banks
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/senate-passes-e2-80-98bail-in-e2-80-99-law-e2-80-93-how-safe-is-your-cash-now-/tabid/88/a/1722/default.aspx
http://cecaust.com.au/releases/2018_02_16_Govt_APRA.html

>> No.11279787

>>11279734

>thing is, you talk about australia being shit, but the worlds financial situation is also terribly shit, and a lot worse than australia in a lot of ways australia was the ONLY country to not experience a recession in the 2008, and that recession fucking paralyzed the rest of the world
>if a downturn hits the rest of the world right now, alll of their central banks will be totally powerless to respond. It will be a huge crisis
100% agreed, i actually am in the camp that predicts a global gfc event occuring in the next 5 years. I just think Australia's bubble has started to deflate earlier.
>ok. I never said hes wrong, just that our RBA has a capacity to respond, whereas the central banks in the rest of the world are powerless to respond
Kind of true, we've all passed bail in laws to help liquidity in a banking crash. Australia has more room to QE with arguably tougher situation to fix.
>but anyway, i doubt that there will be a big housing pop, even if prices are going down right now. There is too much fundamental demand to live in the big cities in australia
>if they go down, people will just buy them up
>but i havnt done research, so i dont know, and at the moment, dont care
Disagree on these points.
Your bro seems like a guy with a good head on his shoulders.

>> No.11279792

>>11279233
Jokes on you im holding BTC.

>> No.11279793

>>11279736
Cheers. I've heard of DAI, but don't really know anything yet about how it's supposed to work. One to look into.

>> No.11279800

>>11279779
Here's a better take on it (ignore the clickbait title).
https://youtu.be/G_wCRbd3tQA

>> No.11279805

>>11279695
AusJibbies unite!

>> No.11279819

>>11279805
50k jibbies here. Having a pretty good day!

>> No.11279837

>>11279819
30k here, feelsgoodman

>> No.11279845

>>11279734
>and a lot worse than australia in a lot of ways australia was the ONLY country to not experience a recession in the 2008, and that recession fucking paralyzed the rest of the world
Because China went on a multi-TRILLION dollar stimulus spree building literal ghost cities and highways to nowhere to deal with the GFC. It's was pure ass luck we were in the right place at the right time to benefit directly from that. It had nothing to do with any inspired economic policy or sound economy we had. Just the shit we dig out of the ground for them.
>but anyway, i doubt that there will be a big housing pop, even if prices are going down right now. There is too much fundamental demand to live in the big cities in Australia
Exactly what a good economist is supposed to say. Politicians and economists never admit we're in a recession until we're out of it and no economist who want an actual job in a field would try and claim a bubble. They're indoctrinated to not think like that.

WA has seen 3 consecutive decreases in the median house price for the first time in recorded history. Not even in the recession of 89 did house prices fall more than 2 years in a row and that was with 17% interest rates. This thing is only getting started.

>> No.11279846
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11279846

>>11279363

They said the same shit about Ireland.

When credit dries up supply won't matter because no-one will be able to sell. Further, without the wealth effect of rising prices (the basis of the Aussie economy) migrants will piss off because they can't find a job.

It's moot anyway, I doubt a serious credit crunch will be allowed to happen. Scott Morrison, that fucking Jew Josh Frydenberg and the RBA board are in open collusion to ensure the credit tap keeps flowing:

>afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/josh-frydenberg-talks-credit-flow-to-rba-governor-philip-lowe-20181002-h165hy

This country is more greedy and corrupt than Greece. It's insane.

>> No.11279857
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11279857

>>11279819
>>11279837
25k here. We are all gonna make it

>> No.11279886

>>11279857
100%,. Glad other ausfags will make it with me. Boarding a plane, cyas.

>> No.11279897

>>11279767

>To that guy about the working class. No, it doesnt matter if the fundamental demand is there. Ie, rich people wanting to move here. The working class people will simply be forced out to live elsewhere, like wollongong of the central coast
>Sydney is a global city, with low crime and good services. it will always have demand, especially for rich people

>>11279787

>Your bro seems like a guy with a good head on his shoulders.

He does which is why I want to see someone with equal knowledge on the subject debate him. But he's studying for his thesis and wont enter the thread.

>all he did was agree and then disagree, not much to say about it

>> No.11279912

>>11279845

>Yeah i agree with that
>I wasnt saying we were special, just that since we didnt experience a downturn, we're in a much much better position to deal with a crisis NOW, wasnt saying that we were good back then
>Also, WA is experiencing a drop cos the mining boom is over. that isnt a bubble popping, that is fundamental demand going down cos no more mining
>Sydney and Melbourne may or may not be in a bubble, i dont know. I havnt researched. But if they are, i doubt that it is at catastrophic levels like in 2008 US. >And the reason is because there is a very good reason houses here are so expensive. They are capital cities with limited amount of space and everyone wants so live there. In 2008, the crisis was national in USA. It was all the random suburban areas in medium sized cities etc. Australia is not so spread out like US. >Everyone in each state basically chooses to live in the capital city
So the fundamental demand will always be high there could be a temporary bubble, caused by bad lending as previously mentioned, sure.
>But i dont think it would be so catastrophic but again, i dont fucking know, i havnt researched, im doing other thinsg at the moment, and im not thinking about buying a house right now cos im just a uni student so i havnt looked into it im in no ways an expert on this though and im not an economist. You need a Phd to be an economist

>> No.11279929

>>11279845

Gonna stop with the greentexting for him since it's getting too long and confusing. For someone who is too lazy to come in here and argue himself, he sure wants to reply to every point.

>Politicians and economists never admit we're in a recession until we're out of it and no economist who want an actual job in a field would try and claim a bubble. They're indoctrinated to not think like that.

well yeah recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, so some time has to pass before you know. And bubbles are always hard to predict. But economists would privately always try to forecast these things, in fact that is the central banks job. To forecase where the real economy is at and to see if its deviating from the nominal economy. They are always looking to see if your in recession or boom. So that they can adjust policy. They just wont neccasarily tell the world about it
also, a lot of the stuff behind recession is behavioral, if people here "WERE IN RECESSION!!" then people tend to not invest in bussiness, excarberating the problem. So its not neccasarily a bad thing to not publicly cause a scare

>> No.11279930

>>11278676
Very hard lad

>> No.11279939

Wait for Aus pop, be in crypto which is global so Japan/China/Murica won't sell just because Australia is fucked.

AUD falls, crypto rises verse AUD and USD/JPY stay strong.

Sell some crypto for shitty AUD and buy a cheap property.


Or the worst case scenario, we have GFC. Crypto drops as people buy gold. People realise they can't buy anything from anyone/businesses with gold and crypto looks appealing to the masses who have a devaluing dollar.

Crypto goes on an insane rise, pushing Bitcoin much higher than $1,000,000 a coin

Might be in 2 years, might be in 10 years but the next time time we have a GFC it'll be very different.

>> No.11279962

>>11279897
Surely that will result in riots or at the bare minimum voting in favour of far right wing parties?

>> No.11279963

>>11279929

He wasn't done.

In fact, behavioral factors are so important that since the 90's the central banks have been using a new strategy to anchor inflation at around 2-3%. The strategy was to publicly announce that the central bank will keep inflation at 2-3%. Bussiness trust the central bank, so they adjust their annual prices by 2-3% in line with their expectation. Voila, now infaltion is at 2-3%.
So what the banks announce have a huge impact on the economy
so publicly scaremongering and predicting publicly that they are in recession isnt a good thing. If Central bank believes they are in recession before anyone else knows about it, they would rather adjust policy like interest rates or QE in order to bring the economy out of recession, before anyone even knows about it.

>> No.11280048

>>11279963
Hint: Basel III compliance

>> No.11280110

>>11279962

Nah, every big global city is like that. Sydney, is one of, but not the most expensive city. Yes people will be disgruntled and some will vote, but these people are not even the majority of the population of the city. A sizeable portion are the rich and the upper middle class, and especially the homeowners. There will be no riots over houseprices. Poor people will simply move out of the capital city
the jobs in sydney are high paying jobs that cater to the rich peoeel who are moving here
Australia needs to have better planning for regional centers. If people move there then hopefully the jobs will move there too. But this is more than just a housing issue. Its the whole issue of moving to a service based economy as opposed to a manufacturing economy
also, another HUGE problem with sydney as opposed to melbourne is the city layout
Sydney is centralised on its far eastern corner. Everyone is trying to get to the east. This is partly why the house prices are so high, because threre is only so much space close to the CBD. Melbourn on the other hand has its CBD in a central location where everything in a large radius is decently located close to the cbd.
look at a map of melbourne and of sydney and you will see that sydney has far far less space that is close to its CBD, and half its radius is ocean
melbourne is much more spacious

>> No.11280128

>>11279963
The only thing that is currently keeping countries afloat in this post-globalization world is the value of their currencies.
Only Investor sentiment, 'historical trends' and public perception are preventing entire countries from sinking but that will only go so far.
The fall will come very swiftly/quickly and unexpectedly. Not enough time for investors nor the public to react.
This will force a complete re-shuffle and a rethink.

>> No.11280154

>>11280128
Two of the important clues for many countries is the state of Urban decay and the complete 'mis'compositions of their respective economies across the globe.
The only ones that will survive are the ones most optimistic about the future and fit into the New World Order.
Too bad you can only write an economic research paper in hindsight.

>> No.11280184

What do you guys think about US consumer staples?
Pros
US based so wont get fucked as hard
consumer staples do well in recessions
good liquidity

Cons
The stocks are inflated just like everything else
cant think of any other cons

>> No.11280213

>>11279963

Fed chairman Powell was on a livestream last night and he slipped up big time.

He was asked by someone in a venue questions-and-answers setting to the tune of how fiscal policies affect monetary policy and vice versa...

His response was that current fiscal policy was irresponsible and that the time for budget repair was now "at the top of the cycle".

He immediately knew what he said, corrected himself and phrased things differently.

>> No.11280509

Big bump bois

>> No.11280654

Anyone else been listening to the adams/north podcasts?
>>11279800 posted one here, are they well founded? I don't know too much about economics but I'm listening to them to try and get a better understanding

>> No.11280706

>>11279565
Shale oil?

>> No.11280727

>>11280654
I'm an accountant so no economist but imo he's suprisingly fact driven and not sensationalist. I enjoyed that video i linked, their conclusion at the end was one I've arrived at myself prior about the possibility but not necessarily probability of deposits being used for bail in. Check it out, my thumbs are too slow for these types of discussions.

>> No.11280746
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11280746

I'd be happy to see the housing market crash and the whole economy with it if it fucks over the boomers who ruin everything in this country.

Maybe we can even then throw in some austerity measures and fuck over their pensions as well.

Though I don't know how much worse it is over the ditch in aus compared with here.

>> No.11280779

Great exchange between these two anons Btw. Greatly enjoyed reading all that as a layman only just now taking an interest

>> No.11280899

I'm not positioned to take advantage of it which sucks.

>> No.11280958

>>11280899
buy crypto

BTC doesn't even need to rise in price for you to profit. The AUD will fall against it, you can get in and out of BTC/USD/AUD much quicker than you can with gold.

>> No.11281187

Was tempted to enter an inverse etf on the housing market, though it seems a bit limited.

>> No.11281281

>>11280727

What's the solution for someone who holds a lot of cash in their bank account?

>> No.11281282

>>11278862
Boomer here, just sold my other houses and cleared out my loans, converted much of the cash to gold waiting for the Housing cycle to bottom and the AU to tank. Now planning to sack millenials and zoomers and tighten up the business for the lean times ahead.
When things start to pick up I'll come swooping back in.

>> No.11281287

>>11281187

I'm not aware one exists in Australia.

>> No.11281291

>>11281282

Jokes on you, gold is going to tank as well.

>> No.11281313

>>11281291
Lol, not as much as the AU will. I'm already well ahead of my buy position, and I can readily convert to anything. Do you think I'm not watching things?

>> No.11281379

So basically we are all fucked

>> No.11281381
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11281381

>>11279510
>>11279734
>>11279897
>>11279912
>>11279929
>>11279963
>>11280110
I went to business school and also bought into everything I was taught until I graduated and experienced the real world. You're taught mathematical models that oversimplify reality, and without realizing it you are taught one school of thought although there are many. You also don't learn to think about power, even though it is fundamentally tied up with economics.

Your brother is 100% correct if the economy is a machine which can be corrected by pulling various levers in response to readings which can be accurately made, the way he has been taught. But I think economy is more like a force of nature than a machine that can be tamed.

On a basic level his "she'll be right" claims are suspect to me, for at least three reasons.

>> No.11281388

>>11281381
1. The RBA has three mandates - inflation targeting (currency stability), the maintenance of full employment, and contributing to the welfare of the people of Australia. It exercises its powers for all three of these mandates. The problem is that not only is the third mandate so vague and broad as to be bullshit, but the second and third mandate actively conflict with the first mandate. Your brother is correct in saying that the RBA has "tools to deal with this", but that's just the problem, it arguably created the very problem in the first place by keeping interest rates too low. And the RBA is in bed with government. There's no separation as there is in other countries between governments and central banks. When the RBA acts it acts in collusion with the government to achieve political aims, and by acting it doesn't act in the broad interest of all Australians, just those voters (see the link about Frydenberg in this thread). For example, the RBA now openly colluding to artificially prop up house prices benefits one segments of the Australian population (property owners) at the expense of the rest. This is plain market manipulation. This also benefits the current government, because they will be stronger in an election if the economy doesn't collapse on their watch.

>> No.11281400

>>11281388
2. The rate of inflation is arguably significantly understated. With stagnant wages and increasing property prices, it defies common sense that inflation is within (or under) the low target band that the RBA aims for. That's because the way inflation is measured can be, and is, fiddled with.

3. The RBA's main weapon is to lower interest rates. They can do that, but they can't lower it a huge amount because they are already at historic lows, so this weapon isn't that effective. Also lowering rates doesn't always have a great effect. Fundamentals are more important than central bank shenanigans. A move down also will almost certainly tank the AUD, again, saving some segments of the economy at the expense of others.

The RBA is a cancerous organization with a schizophrenic mandate and I think your brother's faith is misplaced.

>> No.11281440

>>11279591
Kek 87% of the combined share registry of BHP and RIO is foreign owned! Muh dividennds

China makes shit - we don't. For them a lower currency is a good thing. Every manufactured good we use is imported - muh lower currency.

Google Dutch Disease

>> No.11281446

Learned more in this thread than in 20 years of education. Thanks, faggots.

>> No.11281450

>>11281381
>>11281388
>>11281400
Checked, based and redpilled. It amazes me that people still believe that the RBA and all other central banks have a positive influence on our lives. They are complete scum who are responsible for the mess we're in now because they believe they're gods who can control us. The power they hold is obscene over so many lives is obscene and of course they abuse their power. There's going to be hell to pay for us at some point in the future and the central bankers will walk away lamenting that 'No one could have seen this coming.'

>> No.11281507

ID checks out
>>11281281

>> No.11281532

>>11281507

Interested in a high interest loan, goyim?

>> No.11281564

>>11281532
I hope you get bailed in, you kike loving bastard. You'd have to live in Vaucluse

>> No.11281592

>>11279469
>boomer logic
>housing is only going go up in value
>personal savings and delayed gratification be fucked
>passing the buck to someone else to clean up your shit

The housing bubble perfectly depicts every that's wrong with boomers. They literally mortgaged their kids future so they could live high on the horse. It's their selfishness and reckless behavior that's fucked future generations and has resulted in the mas migration of niggers, spics, chincs, poos and muslims into first world countries so they can continue to live an unsustainable lifestyle. Fuck them, they deserve to get taken to the cleaners for their despicable sense of entitlement that's screwed their children over.

>> No.11281652

>>11281564

oy vey why do you persecute me so? all I wanted was my pound of flesh.

it's right in the contract you filthy goyim

>>11281592

I wouldn't bet on all the boomers getting their comeuppance.

Notice that the Tasmanian housing market is the only one bucking the trend and is going up. All that money is Vic/NSW/QLD boomers who cashed out of their properties at the peak and purchased cheap Tasmanian houses.

A recession isn't moral, it only destroys people that aren't on the ball.

>> No.11281693

>>11279376
Mate times are horrible already we have a horde of chinks and Indians/paki over saturating the white collar job market. I'm praying I get the job I interviewed for today.

>> No.11281699

Great thread. You autists aren’t bad.

>> No.11281725

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/10/realtor-sydney-melbourne-house-prices-halve/

Just an FYI

There are some good and free articles on this site. It is more bearish than not & has a bit of click bait (link provided) - but it is better than most

>> No.11281799

>>11279233
>That's because you're a fucking brainlet that doesn't understand how the Australian economy is all tied together into the home mortgage racket.
This is 4chan, a fair amount of people understand this quite clearly and WANT this to happen even more so.

>> No.11281922

>>11281400

On the RBA keeping interest rates low. If Aussie banks are borrowing money from overseas (in this scenario we use the US) and the AUD falls + US raises interest rates then the Aussie banks must in return raise their rates right?

The RBA only sets a target or a suggested rate but the banks aren't required to follow it right?

>> No.11282001

>>11281922
RBA loans to our banks too. So cost our banks pass on to customers is a combination of the two rates.

>> No.11282180

>>11281922
>>11282001
this. it is the literal interest rate on RBA loans

>> No.11282187

>>11281799
Fucking oath I want this too happen, this economy is run by straight up narrow simple minded “she’ll be fucking right”, every cunt thinks there going to get rich with a “small business” and if they don’t start making money the cut the pay checks of people working for them examples?
- DIY
- every fucking
- those brainlet franchises like Jim’s mowing, antennas, mechanics, rim jobs etc
- every temp agency or labour hire
Fuck them all, I know booger’s who have literal shit for for brains who are filthy rich just from fucking labour hire.

>> No.11282199

>>11282187
*Every fucking cafe

>> No.11282223

>>11281693
>Wahhhh these subhuman's are more qualified than me :( It must be because of their skin colour!

>> No.11282244

>>11282187

Again, a recession isn't judgement day for the wicked. Only overextended people in bad sectors.

The people you're talking about could have been doing all of that yet accumulating no debt and stacking cash.

Their revenue may go down the toilet but their net worth won't.

The people who are going to get fucked are the people with the mortgage, car loan for the wife's new Kluger, private school costs for the kids, etc etc.

>> No.11282254

>>11282223
- thinking that shitskins don’t bullshit any or all of their qualifications dupe their way into a job
Fucking kys

>> No.11282264

>>11282223

We shouldn't care about their credentials, they aren't us, and they will never be us, thus they shouldn't be allowed in.

>> No.11282274

>>11282244
Got nothing to do with wicked people,
Letting yourself get overextended to the point of being on the knifes edge is nigger tier economics.

>> No.11282337

>>11280184
Another pro: denominated in USD. Or maybe that’s a con, I don’t have a PhD in economics.

>> No.11282348

>>11282274

The wicked people are the ones lending out the money who will get a bail out in the end.

Namely the banks.

>> No.11282397

>>11282337

The US is overdue for a recession itself m8. They are raising rates as it is now, it won't be long until their stock bubble pops.

If you want be secure, you hold US dollars, because any recession in Australia is going to mean a weakening of our currency.

If the AUD goes to 50 cents, you've just gained a shitload.

You can do this very easily by owning a USD ETF within Australia.

>> No.11282418

>>11282348
absolutely fucking retarded

>> No.11282553

>>11282418

The people who financialized the family home are wicked.

In the 50s to the 80s, everyone had a home. It wasn't a huge hurdle because the government wanted the population fucking so they can populate the country. To do this, you need cheap affordable homes for the family to grow up in.

So if you had the median salary during those decades and you were smart enough to accumulate 3 times your annual wage, you could buy a family house.

>> No.11282665

>>11282553
Not wrong
This is why all boomers are scum, invest in the economy that is keeping you and your children employed. So much money tied into housing could be used to make other industries thrive. A golden age pissed down the drain.

>> No.11282724
File: 619 KB, 1536x2048, as.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
11282724

>>11281693
>>11282254
>>11282264

To be fair Aussies got the shit end of the genetic stick -- born from a gene pool of inbred exiled criminals. I guess you gotta have that dumb fuck DNA to be getting interest only home loans.

>> No.11282828

>>11282553
yeah i see your point. nobody these days is smart enough to accumulate 3 times their annual wage because they're happier borrowing 7x. i don't know if it makes the lenders wicked though, you can see on this board the absolute uproar about privileges afforded to the wealthy, everybody knows what they're doing, the NPCs think basically the same way.

>> No.11282941

>>11282828

It makes them wicked because they know what they are doing and they know how the story will end.

We've seen it before in Ireland and the USA.

So who is worse;

1. The ignorant but well meaning average Australian who just wants to live like his parents did in the 80s.

2. The banks who know that these loans are unserviceable and calculate the repayments based upon the poverty level living standards for the borrower, but still issues the loan anyway.

The banks KNOW the government is going to step in. The Federal Government will never let the banks go bust in Australia.

That makes them wicked.

>> No.11283031

>>11282941
my point is they're considered wicked if they don't issue the loans also