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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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10912631 No.10912631 [Reply] [Original]

How long until the next 2008 level recession?

>> No.10912640

>>10912631
Will happen in 2018 or 2019 for several reasons.

>> No.10912641
File: 46 KB, 1000x900, nupepe_smile.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10912641

It'll be any second now

>> No.10912667

>>10912631
>"everything bubble"
Otherwise known as "growth".

>> No.10912685

You will never be able to afford housing again - give up millenial trash, this is our time. You pay your rent like a good little millenial.

>> No.10912715

>>10912667
"Growth" - printing more and more cheap money via QE is called growth nowadays. okay

>> No.10912727

>>10912631
2021. G20 banks have until then to enact bail-in legislation. The next one is going to be cataclysmic for savers, wiping out uninvested money greater than 100K. Allowing it to happen before the deadline for banks will force bail outs that most governments can't endure and carries with it unacceptable risk.

>> No.10912747

>>10912715
Yep.
>" ".

>> No.10912765

>>10912727
>The next one is going to be cataclysmic for savers, wiping out uninvested money greater than 100K
So how do I protect myself against this? PMs and treasuries?

>> No.10913318

>>10912667
Nothing has grown but debt

Most companies are seeing flat business and more cautious customers. Buy backs are pushing stocks up, along with crumbling currency values.

Things are close to bad than good...but i don't anticipate much down trend till late next year. Everyone is using every trick in the book to keep markets propped up.

>> No.10913332

>>10912631
Whenever the student debt bubble bursts.

>> No.10913345
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10913345

>>10912640
Care to share those reasons?

>> No.10913371

>>10912765
Buy Bitcoin.

>> No.10913384

>>10912685
this is why millinials are becomming more socialist. they have no stake in the system anymore so might as well tear it all down.

>> No.10913398

>>10912631
i expect it in 2020 market cycles have grown longer and longer.

>> No.10913421

>>10912631
2008 was nothing. The next one will be real and will spark off civil war in US and Europe.

>> No.10913447

>>10912631
The fed has been manipulating the bond yield curves, and the stock market currently lines up with the bubble meme chart perfectly. 45 days.

>> No.10913497

the longer it holds the better and harder the outcome
i've been prepping since 2010, quite funny how things are ending up way way WAY worse when i thought it couldn't get any worse, life is full of surprises i guess.

>> No.10913520

>>10913345
>that 40 year wine aunt who only drinks starbucka coffee

>> No.10914496

>>10912631
max 3 years

>> No.10914512

>>10912715
/thread

Your scale sucks. USD hyperinflation

>> No.10914522

>all these broke zoomers sitting on the sidelines during the greatest bullrun of our lifetimes

LOL
O
L

>> No.10914529

>>10914522
So you are boomer who will be part of the mass suicide? Nice to meet you.

>> No.10914541
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10914541

>>10914529

>i-it'll crash a-any day now

LMAO
A
M
B
O

>> No.10914543

>>10912727
So where to invest if everything is bubble? Crypto and pm :d?

>> No.10914562
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10914562

Fuck off commies
stay fucking mad. Seriously how mad are you that the SPX keeps growing?

>> No.10914574

>>10914543

Crypto will cause a bank run before that.

>> No.10914597
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10914597

>>10913345

>> No.10914899

That's a fucking gross butterfly pattern. Whatever you're supposed to short, fucking short it.

>> No.10914915
File: 20 KB, 125x125, sneeki-krugman.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10914915

>>10912667
Who's behind this post?

>> No.10914929

The funny part is deluded bizraelites think the crash will pump crypto

>> No.10914994

>>10913520
glad to see the wine aunt meme again

>> No.10915042

>>10912765
Tether

>> No.10915072
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10915072

>>10914915

>> No.10915359
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10915359

>>10913421
This. The next bubble popping will be the match that starts a Civil (really a Race) War throughout the Western world. Once the golden goose runs out the diversity will eat away at each other.

>>10914929
>The funny part is deluded bizraelites think the crash will pump crypto

The crash could be so bad crypto will be worthless. You'll want hard goods, not some private keys on a USB. When the grocery stores run out of food because of a fiat collapse ain't no niggers gonna be trying to steal your btc bruh. Maybe some white people will barter with you for btc, but nonwhites won't.

>>10913345
First it will be housing. There are multiple threads in the past month discussing were in a bubble. My parents are trying to sell their home in the Chicago suburbs and have has less than 10 showings all summer. Out of the dozen listings in their neighborhood, only two have sold all summer. Most Chicago suburbs are slow. A lot of markets are starting to show "Cold" on zillow.

Come next spring once boomers start marking their homes down 30-40% foreclosures will start.

The state and municipal governments in places such as IL, Chicago, NY, NJ, CT, MA, KY, and CA NEED higher property values because they have hundreds of billions of dollars in unfunded pension liabilities that they need to keep feeding with higher property taxes. This list also includes thousands of municipalities throughout the country. The list of public debt at the local and state level is $4 trillion, all these smaller governments will go bankrupt and need a Fed bailout.

If not, we will see a MASSIVE cut to government services. In Harvey, IL they laid off half the police and firefighter force due to pensions.

However, this will hyperinflate the dollar and eat away at the last of America's paltry savings. Also once boomers lose money in the real estate bubble they are gonna cash out their 401k;s and run for the hills. Stocks will crash.

>> No.10915390

>>10915359

I should also mention that the reason properties are moving so slowly in places like Chicago is because buyers don't want to be on the hook for the property taxes or an increase. This works as a double-edged sword, because even though the state needs the property tax revenue their residents won't be able to sell the property for what it is worth due to the taxes so the property sits on the market for months. It is a vicious cycle.

>> No.10915432
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10915432

>>10915359
Eventually the Fed will have to bail out too many sectors of the economy to rely on them for a recovery without causing massive hyperinflation.

We're gonna see some serious fucking shit go down.

>> No.10915443

>>10912685
Why the fuck would a millennial buy a house when he knows he’ll have to switch jobs in the near future because Mr. Shekelstein won’t give him a raise?

>> No.10915484
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10915484

>>10915432
How did we get here anon? Where did it go wrong?

>> No.10915554

>>10915484
boomers handed over every part of their lives to megacorps in exchange for convenience, then they let the TV raise their kids so none of us knew what was going on until we grew up and noticed everything was shit

>> No.10915555
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10915555

>>10915484
idk goyim you tell me

>> No.10915567

>>10915432
Bail in legislation is already ready to go.

>> No.10915597
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10915597

>>10915567
>Bail in legislation is already ready to go.

Go where. Interest rates were at 4% in 2006, we had room to go down to zero. Also the Fed only had to bail out the housing market.

Now interest rates are barely half that and the Fed will have to bail out not just housing but hundreds of governments and god knows what else. We will see negative interest rates and complete collapse of what's left of the middle class' savings.

>> No.10915786

>>10915359
What happens to the bond market in such a case?

I'm currently considering hedging the stock market with bond ETFs. Am I a brainlet?

>> No.10915927

>>10912715

This

>> No.10915982

About an hour.

>> No.10915999

>>10912727
Hey wait shit I have 160k in a checking account. Wat do?!?!

>> No.10916039

Nobody knows what will happen

Everything might crash within the next 2 months or go up for 5 more years

Feels bad to be a brainlet and not to know where to invest

>> No.10916053

>>10912631
>>10912640
>>10912727
>>10915359
>>10915390
>>10915432

kewl how do I short the housing market? all I see is $$$$$$$$$$$$

>> No.10916269

>>10916053
watch the Big Short kek

>> No.10916274

>>10912727
>The next one is going to be cataclysmic for savers, wiping out uninvested money greater than 100K
Yeah right, why would it wipe out any uninvested money, you realize you can have bank accounts in more than one country

>> No.10916708

>>10912631
>2008 level recession
More like 1930s level recession.

>> No.10916731

>>10916708
Coming depression will be the worst in human history bar none. Might lead to complete collapse

>> No.10916745

I honestly believe the market will not crash under a Trump presidency, reason being he knows his presidency is over the moment he can't run on his economy theme. Also this time is different, the bull market shows the same patterns as before the 2008 recession but other economic factors do not and are showing positive middle developments.

However, a recession is coming within 15- 20 years and it will be a very nasty one. Probably one that won't recover in atleast a decade. Also civil unrest will destroy most of European countries and US. China will have big problems before that.

>> No.10916766

>>10915484
Central banking/fiat money, corporate personhood, and female suffrage. Those were our fuckups and now it's time to pay the piper

>> No.10916792

>>10916745
He doesn't have a say in the matter you aspie, only the fed and it's owners do. He will never see a second term after this coming crash

>> No.10916855

>>10916792
I wouldn't underestimate him and the exploding market that we've seen since his election proof otherwise. He's not gonna save us but I bet you he can delay what's certainly coming.

>> No.10916997

My plan:
- Hold muh stocks as they continue winning
- If shit starts crashing, just fucking short every market in sight with inverse ETFs.

cant-lose.jpg

>> No.10917035

>>10916997
Already too late when shit is going down. But you will for sure outsmart the market, i believe in you anon. :')

>> No.10917259

>>10915359

> race war
> fiat savings accounts becoming worthless
> rock hard erection at thought of fallout larp

I knew this site was full of morons, but I didn't know the king of morons would post.

Welcome, your majesty!

>> No.10917285
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10917285

>>10915359
Based and redpilled

>> No.10917288

>>10912715
WOKE

this guy >>10912667 is a fucking retard

>> No.10917309

>>10917288
Yep. And if the fed doesn't pull the balance sheet hyperinflation will soon set in.

We are un-ironically fucked

>> No.10917324

>>10915597
This. There is no room to implement monetary policies anymore.

>> No.10917330

>>10916745
Trump will be the scapecoat

>> No.10917340

>>10916997
Have fun shorting when they ban shorting like they did in 2008

>> No.10917413
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10917413

>>10916997
"Can't lose"

Holy shit you're a retard. Have fun shorting the market faster than the hft supercomputers

>> No.10917451

>>10917413
NO they will ban shorting! goddamnit

>> No.10917486

>>10912631
is bitcoin safe?

>> No.10917500

>>10917330
>Trump will be the scapecoat
this is why (((they))) allowed him to be elected.

>> No.10917527

>>10917500
It's a theory, which I do not necessarily believe but it sounds like a very very very plausible outcome ""they"" will use when he was elected.

>> No.10917537

I like reading such stuff. Finally some people with real financial knowledge have joined us NEETs to educate us. Thanks guys. You will be here forever though.

>> No.10917545

>>10917486
>stocks crash
>gold crashes just like in 08 (LOOK AT THE CHART GODDAMNIT)
>people/institutions/everyone losing money faster than they can count
>"Hey I have an idea let's buy btc"...said literally no one

>> No.10917552

>>10917330

This

they will blame him and openly forbid parties that are even slightly right-leaning.

>> No.10917560

>>10917545
>not buying a worldwide tech currency when the worlds traditional systems go to shit
KEK

>> No.10917593

>>10917560
If everyone rushes into BTC during the crash the mempool will get overwhelmed and people will realize it's not fucking scaleable yet
The price will crash and they will fomo into pms

>> No.10917601

I only have 50k in gold I bought after 2008, yikes.

>> No.10917602

So what’s the safest way to protect your money then? Gold?

>> No.10917605
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10917605

>Every single thing, even things that are inversely-correlated, will soon crash with no survivors and you will somehow not be able to short successfully, nothin' you can do, everyone's gonna lose everything and die except me and the other preppers, better stock up on guns and food and watch out for niggers hurrrr"

I've been hearing all of this shit from masturbatory permapreppers for as long as I can remember..

>> No.10917612

>>10917330
Exactly fucking this. The plan is clear as day.

Trump will never see a second term. He's claiming complete credit for an economy he does not control

>> No.10917619

>>10917560
>The financial sector completely collapes
>Far far worse than 07/08
>"Hey I have an idea...let's all just you know use blockchain this time...because you know that's where it's at"
>"How do you mean there is nothing left?"
>"But I told you to buy gold didn't you?"
>"Wait what it collapsed like it did during every crisis...ah ok..."
>"Wait crypto went to 0 because literally everyone cashed out to quickly buy commodities which at least have a sort of tangible value"
>"What do you mean btc isn't tangible...it's literally digital gold....oh wait"

Cmon anon, i've been in btc since 2015 and when it finally happens every single person will cash out into dollars and bankruns will happen. Do you really think that if we are in a situation where bankruns are at the order of the day that btc will go up? Cmon work with me here.

>> No.10917622

>>10917605
And the day they're right will be the day you die and they and their genes survive. You will be selected out of the gene pool as a result of being a happy go lucky faggot with no foresight

>> No.10917627

>>10917605
This. Always do the opposite of what /biz/ says

>> No.10917636

>>10917619
Btc would moon if it were scaleable. Right now it's not and that's why it will get rekt during the next crash

Long term the crash will be good for crypto because it will force people start to intelligently questioning the fed. Short term very very bad

>> No.10917650

>>10917636
Yes, long term it will. Tell me again how we are in it for the long term? This is a get rich quick scheme. I don't want to be rich when I am 50 (26 now btw).

>> No.10917702

>>10917622

or he dies wealthy of natural causes because he wasn't paralyzed in fear of an unprecedented black swan

>> No.10917724

>>10917330
>>10917552
>>10917612
Yep, I literally don't see any other way since I truly believe that it will happen in 2019 so what other choice than trump is there? Literally, there is nothing else to blame for (((them)))

>> No.10917822

>>10912727
>The next one is going to be cataclysmic for savers, wiping out uninvested money greater than 100K
brainlet here what the fuck do you mean ?

>> No.10917871

>>10917324
>>10915597

USD 6M Libor is 2.5% , 10-year yields are 3% and FED is expecting to hike the rates even more.

Eurozone could be caught as Euribor is still negative

>> No.10917896

>>10917822
He's talking about haircuts just like happenned in Cyprus. Own more than 300k in a bank account? Then 200k is forfeit to the Government, and they'll let you keep the last 100k.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_Cypriot_financial_crisis

>> No.10917900

>>10917871
Ah but if EU is no bueno, US is going to be no bueno

>> No.10917912

>>10917896
Fucking hell, imagine that for a second. Work your whole life to have solid savings just to get it stolen from you in an instant without any reprocusions. Jesus fuck

>> No.10917950

>>10917912
"Savings" are grounds for punishment, and have been since Keynes.

>> No.10917957

>>10912727
I was leaning more towards 2022. How severe exactly is anyone's guess.

>> No.10917965

>>10912727
buy physical gold

>> No.10918059

>>10915359
I agree with pretty much everything you said. To anyone who's taken econ 101 and actually DYOR, it's obvious there's going to be a recession and it'll most likely start with a housing bubble burst. However, why wouldn't crypto moon?

>people will look for ways to hold on to the money they have saved up, should shit hit the fan
>stock market will fall due to boomers cashing out their savings/people panic selling
>fiat will lose its value/massive hyper inflation
>there's a finite supply of btc, eth, link, etc.
>crypto has real world applications that can add value (i.e. Blockchain, smart contracts, etc.)

My question is why wouldn't crypto moon? From the looks of things, it seems like the three areas you want to invest in are crypto, golf/silver, and foreign stocks in places with emerging markets that don't rely on the US, Canada, or Aus.

>> No.10918125

>>10917965

But it is so expensive at the moment...any chance it will go to around 800-900 dollars per ounce within the next months ?

>> No.10918128

>>10917900
ECB is aiming raise rates too, as Brits kept hiking them in the past year.

Eurozone is a different kind of beast too, as it's de facto Germany's mechanism to devalue their currency to export like mad. Not sure they could be able to export as much and keeping current account surplus by sticking to Deutsche Mark. DM would most likely be much stronger to dollar compared to current EURUSD. In case of turmoil, they'll most likely throw Greece, Italy, Spain and other laggers under the bus again.

>> No.10918156
File: 547 KB, 1285x768, 20160612_bubble[1].png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10918156

>>10912631
You know it to be true

>> No.10918159

>>10917650
The crash will happen before 2020. Do you want to be broke at 28 nigger?

>> No.10918169

>>10917896
I would have fucking gone to the street with a machine gun if this happened. Cypriots are complete cucks

>> No.10918214

>>10917724
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/hear-what-peter-schiff-says-is-coming-next-theres-no-way-to-stop-this_02082018

>> No.10918241

>>10917822

This will never happen in the Western World, don't worry.

Anon you're responding to is not all there.

>> No.10918251

>>10915999
Buy physical gold and take delivery.
Buy silver if you want some risk.

>> No.10918263

>>10917330
I knew he was a scapegoat the moment he announced his presidency. Whether or not he got elected was like some sort of Jewish litmus test whether or not the 2008 crash was enough. It was not.

>> No.10918422
File: 108 KB, 900x900, 1-oz-silver-bar.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10918422

>>10918251
Silver is going to 1k+ in the next crisis

>> No.10918462

>>10918422

For retards :

One ounce silver = 15 dollars = 15 cheeseburgers (1 dollar per burger)

Inflation

One ounce = 15.000 dollars = 15 cheeseburgers (1000 dollars per burger)

Physical stacks of metals are for CONSERVING wealth not for getting rich

>> No.10918488

>>10918462
Under normal economic conditions I agree.

But in the popping of the largest fiat everything bubble Ponzi in human history, they will make you rich. Very very rich

>> No.10918688

>>10918422
>>10918462
Both of these people are right.
Metals are still a good hedge, but keep it under 10% of your portfolio.

>> No.10918830

>>10913384
They are being sold a socialist utopia by a bunch of capitalists. This isnt even our final form

>> No.10918847

>>10915786
bond market is rip.

>> No.10918911

>>10912727
>this anon mentions bail-ins
W O K E. Do you have any details on broker dealers and contracts? I haven't really figured out anything for these cases, since life insurance policies have a contractual "Guarantee." I figure that places like Fidelity are going to be pretty safe since the mutual funds are independent and "owners" of the company and not the other way around. This bail-in shit is absolutely fucked.

>>10915999
this >>10918251
You can also diversify with a good whole life insurance policy as well, assuming I'm correct. You will want to make it something like a fixed 10 payment. Usually LI companies are involved in the bond markets, but I really don't know what would happen when the everything bubble pops. I do know that some of the LI companies have huge reserves of cash. It'd be like if Bitcoin was considered a company and then miners were considered to be in a partnership. It'd be absolutely mental and nothing would really be off the table.

>> No.10918923

>>10918911
sorry, i think that's vanguard's structure, not fidelity.

>> No.10919457

>>10918923
you killed a good thread

>> No.10919477
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10919477

>>10912631
soon
i hope youre on the right side of the cubicle wall when it happens

>> No.10919505

>>10919457
this shit is 200% mental, and if anons can't figure out this problem we're all fucked and just putting our prayers on crypto. There have been policies enacted worldwide that let a FAILING COMPANY force ownership of that company on its "unsecured lenders" for liquidity. It's an absolute nightmare from all points of view.

>> No.10919554

>>10918911
You don't want your money in an insurance company if there is a financial collapse. You do know insurance companies can go bankrupt and then you are just another creditor behind all the creditors when that happens.

>> No.10919574

I do think there is a big reset coming and the big question is how do you preserve your money and get it to the other side of the reset.

>> No.10919593

>>10916274
>implying the average person has off shore bank accounts
you blow in from stupid town?

>> No.10919640

>>10919554
>just another creditor behind all the creditors
that's what i figure, considering that a majority of creditors are corporations and banks. the only thing that makes it different is that you're:
>not an unsecured lender
>you have a contractual "guarantee"
It's weak, and i'd guess that you're probably better to put faith in bitcoin, gold, and mutual funds if you're going to be that paranoid. I'm pissed that my only solution to keep liquid money safe has been to spread money around to multiple institutions.

>> No.10919655

search for Bespoke Tranche Opportunity

>> No.10919666

The market will crash when the aliens show up.

>> No.10919686

>>10919640
I am super paranoid. If I thought we were headed for normal market financial conditions then investing in annuities would be okay.

>> No.10919715

>>10919640
Also, you could just buy T bills through your brokerage account. I'm hoping the US government doesn't collapse.

>> No.10919753

>>10919715
I assume the best way to go about the T-Bills would look like laddering CDs? I'm trying to keep myself 75% USD and US companies and 25% in alternatives like PM and crypto. the term "bail-in" gets me riled up.

>> No.10919835

>>10919753
Yeah ladder. You can just keep rolling over into 12 month t bills. Also, I think bank accounts will be okay if kept under the FDIC coverage which is usually $250k. Although who really knows because the FDIC doesn't have enough money to cover a systemwide collapse. It's all kinda a big pyramid scheme.

>> No.10919865
File: 86 KB, 921x637, 360F01CC-5C36-420A-9524-81E90B60DE39.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10919865

>>10912631
Less than a year

>> No.10919889

>>10912631
Looks like it’s overdue. Just depends on when the whales decide it’s time to dump the pump.

>> No.10919928

I'm just a regular 28 year old guy and I don't know WHAT THE FUCK is going on or is going to happen.

>> No.10919952

Also, as per the title of the thread; 2008 level recession. Was there even a recession in recent history? I've been around for a little while and from what I can remember there hasn't really been anything bad happen at all. A few top tier people complained about doing rates on this and that and I'm sure some people and some companies went broke, but overall it seems like it's been pretty smooth sailing since like forever.

>> No.10919988

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that life will go on just like it has since forever; no surprises here; I actually think that even if a few high-up people TRIED to rock the system that it would just adapt like everything else, think about it, we were like dumb apes for a huuuuge chunk of our previous existence, and even with all of that RAW shit nature could throw at us we still sailed smoothly into the present. Now we're HEAPS smarter, what could possibly ROCK US TO THE CORE LIKE NOTHING ELSE? We're too smart for that shit now. Everyone just sit back, relax. There is no need to worry, every little thing gonna be alright.

>> No.10920487

>>10917552
As if there's more than 2 parties? The republican/democrat duo will continue until this entire shitshow crumbles.

>> No.10920589

>biz finally agrees with me after I've been saying this shit was unsustainable for the past 2 years

God damn

>> No.10921086

>>10920589
2 year ago:
>it's totally unsustainable
Today:
>it's totally unsustainable
In 2 years:
>it's totally unsustainable

Pardon me, anon, but by unsustainable do you mean ongoing and sustainable?

>> No.10921101

>>10918488
when everything is in a bubble nothing really is in a bubble.

>> No.10921732

>>10921101
That's deep. And wrong.

>> No.10922111

>>10921101
Salaries are not in a bubble. It's not an 'everything bubble', it's an 'everything else bubble'

>> No.10922131

>>10913318
Literally the opposite of what you said is true, but ok champ.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/boom-times-83-execs-say-business-is-better-76-see-more-growth

>> No.10922253

so what should one do to prep for the next crisis? will crypto moon when the crash happens?

>> No.10922291

>>10922131
fake news

>> No.10922336

>>10918241
It will happen in Australia. The already passed the laws for it earlier this year.

We've got a massive property bubble ready to burst

https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/senate-passes-e2-80-98bail-in-e2-80-99-law-e2-80-93-how-safe-is-your-cash-now-/tabid/88/a/1722/default.aspx
http://cecaust.com.au/releases/2018_02_16_Govt_APRA.html

>> No.10922372

>>10922253
>will crypto moon when the crash happens?
What I expect to happen is that crypto will crash at the same time, as many who are just using it for trading discover they don't have cash on hand.

But ONCE that immediate crash is over, crypto will recover far faster and harder as those who are unaffected pile in - there's blood in the streets.

>> No.10922402

>>10919593
yeah I guess they don't, but anyone reading this thread should. Personally have accounts in 6 countries

>> No.10922415

>>10922372
Hi newfag, check out Cyprus banking in '13 correlate with BTC chart.

>> No.10922420

>>10922402
how do you get those offshore account if most banks require you to be a resident

>> No.10922459

>>10922420
Well it is probably harder for US citizens. For europeans there are several non resident accounts, for example Barclays in UK or Isle of Man, Falcon Bank, Dukascopy and more in Switzerland and even easier several mobile banks in different countries that you can open in 10 minutes

>> No.10922481

>>10918462
The intent was to preserve wealth. I was responding to someone who was worried about keeping his money in the bank.

>> No.10923562

Civil war in America within the next 10 years.