/biz/ - Business & Finance

[Anonymous No.10911991]

Hahah did you guys really fall for the cryptocurrency scam?

The name itself should have raised red flags amongst those of you with any self awareness. Currency/money is defined as having three characteristics, a) a unit of accounts (yet everyone counts their crypto in dollars), b) a medium of exchange (pretty sure nobody uses crypto to buy anything) and c) a preserver of value (goes up 10x or down 90% in a year).

So if it’s not currency/money then what is it? Well it is a speculative asset, but cryptospeculativeasset doesn’t have the same ring to it. But even then let’s break it down further. Let’s of things are speculative assets, for example bonds, stocks, real estate, art, derivatives. There is nothing wrong with being a speculative assets. But most speculative assets have some sort of fundamentals: stocks have earnings and dividends, even perceived overvalued stocks like amazon generate tremendous cash flow from working capital ($20 billion a year); bonds have interest and coupons and real estate generate rent; even commodities like oil, steel and pork bellies which are driven by pure supply and demand with no cash flows are subject real fundamental usage and supply changes (such as bad weather creating a poor harvest, or suddenly people buying more cars thus using more oil).

So what is crypto? It is a speculative asset where supply and demand is not based on usage, but pure supply and demand by the investor, there are other assets like this such as art, collectibles, vintage cars. But even those things have scarcity. After all there is only so many Picasso’s and limited production Ferraris. While anyone can build a crypto, there is essentially no difference in the underlying technology except for the scale of adoption. The marginal cost of creating a new crypto is zero.

[Anonymous No.10912003]

So now we have established it really is cryptospeculativeassetwithnofundamentalsorscarcity. Again this is all fine, but the question is how much it should be worth? For crypto to hit 10-20 trillion, which was required to make a 10x/20x January, how many of you knew what that really meant? At $15 trillion, crypto would be as big as all real estate in the United States. At $20 trillion, it would be as big as the entire US stock exchange, housing nearly all of the largest multinational companies in the world. If you had 20 trillion dollars, would you buy almost all the big companies in the world, generating trillions in profits and dividends or all of the real estate in the US, generating trillions in rental income, or buy crypto?

It was obviously a bubble even at $1 trillion, which it nearly hit. But you got greedy, inside your little mind, the delusion kept going. Digital Gold! Despite all the gold in the world being worth $7 trillion and having 5,000+ years of usage. And now you won’t let the delusion go, it is too painful and obvious in retrospect. So you’ll convince yourself it will come back anyday now, and baghold to zero.