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10580107 No.10580107 [Reply] [Original] [archived.moe]

So the Australian real estate market is broken as shit, massive artificial bubble created by socialism (government heavily limits land available for development, and creates artificial supply and demand) and homes in Aus are currently worth like a billion dollerydoos, obviously this isnt gonna last very long, so lets have a discussion on how long we think this market will last before crashing, and how best to capitalise on it

>who owns real estate in 2018
I do, you crypto peasant

>> No.10580128

>be me
>own some properties
>crypto holder

Pretty sure your the peasant here.

>> No.10580149

let me feel like a big man :(

>> No.10580253


>> No.10580463
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You’re fucked

Here’s what’s gonna happen next
>trump will continue trade war on China
>Chinese economy starts to tank and their stock market too(currently happening)
>margin calls for all the gambling Chinese “investors” there are a lot
>start to need cash from other places and investors begin to pull out from over inflated housing markets

All you people in Australia, Canada, New Zealand; England and all other socialist shitholes will suffer housing market crashes worse than 08.

>> No.10580531

I moved to freedomland to buy before the boom, im very comfy right now, my house is already worth 20% more than when I bought it, I have a cashpile saved and just want to reinvest in aus once shit circles the blender and splatters over everything

housing crash is plain as day, I just want to figure out when it hits, though probably after turnbull gets kicked out, since he's a property mogul

>> No.10580947

go outside of the major cities and property is affordable
it's not just the chinks. it's the banks giving loans to anyone and Normies thinking they are on the house TV show or whatever giving their shit hole a lick of paint and immediately valuing it at 40% higher because muh property investment

>> No.10581011

>government heavily limits land available for development,
At least you still have plenty of land

>> No.10581112

Only australians could think this, im in the states right now and buying a home here is easy as piss, 5 digit numbers, you can do that in europe too, but in australia you're lucky to get that in a dead mining town in the middle of arsefuck nowhere

>> No.10581153

Nice idea OP, but people have been saying this for years. The fact of the matter is that with immigration and population growth in our capitals there will always be a strong demand for housing. I agree the market is completely overinflated, which is why I’m moving to a regional city and building a new home for half what you’d pay in a capital and my commute will be similar anyway. If you have money in apartments I’d bail out now as these will drop in value (already are) but houses on actual blocks of land will plateau.
I know it’s a stretch but look at New York as an example. There’ll always be enough rich fags to buy up the real estate in capital cities.

>> No.10581174


unsaddle your camel mustafa, there's no land here

>> No.10581319
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please god

t. socal

t. landlord is chinese

t. chinese neighbor on my left

t. chinese neighbord on my right

t. shitty $1.8 million cardboard boxes everywhere

>> No.10581356

yeah bro 50k to live in the ghetto or a run down weatherboard pos in hicksville, bum fuck Idaho
property on the nsw mid coast is 1k/hectare

>> No.10581435


> make $200k, got some stacks saved
> hmm maybe i can afford that shitty starter condo
> price floor is $500k for anything decent
> california
> find a decent one that's still an overpriced piece of shit
> hesitates.jpg
> realtor pushing me to make an offer because someone else made an offer
> find out other offer is a 3.5% FHA loan
> realize the entire price floor is now supported by 3.5% FHA loans
> median household income is 108k
> need to make 140k for it to be "affordable"
> high earners can barely afford the bottom of the barrel cardboard construction

i dunno

>> No.10581517

>artificial bubble created by socialism

Are you dumb nigga? It’s been held up by the overwhelming torrent of 220,000 migrants every year that our country allows to walk into our country and buy property. It has been over 200,000/year for years now, even worse under the Coalition.

A lot of these migrants are cashed up investors and wealthy families. This creates a market of really high housing demand. Boomers love this shit because they get to cash out as practically millionaires just from buying a modest western Sydney home over 20 years ago that they earned from their modest working class job.

It’s extremely bad for young people though, especially ones with boomer parents that are squandering all their wealth on Thailand and Bali trips and have no intention on saving their wealth for the next generation.

Most worryingly, not only is the real-estate market operating under the assumption of never-ending growth as a result of mass-migration. So is our whole economy.

The flipping of houses is the only thing which is keeping the economic engine from stalling right now as manufacturing and mining projects dry up and lots of people are being forced transition from full-time work to casual and part-time work in the services, retail and hospitality.

What’s worse is that because of this huge influx of migrants, it’s also creating an overly competitive jobs market with reduced wages and bargaining power for Australian workers. This has reduced wage growth. Fresh migrants from third-world shitholes like India are more than willing to earn half of what an Australian would expect for the same work just to have the opportunity to live here.

The high social-capital Australia once had is also slipping. Once you import Asia and Africa into your major cities, they begin to resemble the major cities of Asia and Africa in terms of cleanliness. Melbourne and Sydney smell like shit.

Don’t get me started on the traffic.

>> No.10581671

Boomers are a cancer. The whole economy in the anglopshere (minus the US) is basically just a property bubble driven by immigration and chink cash. Boomers reverse mortgage the house and spend their money gambling or traveling or something and leave their children nothing.

>> No.10581701

it's not as bad as it seems. Loans are reasonably regulated by APRA and artificially restricted land supply reduces urban sprawl which makes existing infrastructures cost efficient

We still have other high skilled sectors that are propping up the economy, our property wouldnt be worth shit otherwise.

>> No.10581721

Somewhat agree, both Aus and NZ economies would be in a hole without Chinese investors buying property. They buy property not just to flip but as long term holds and it has collectively pumped the market. Even citizens can only have leaseholds on land in China so they look elsewhere for freehold.

How many young cashed up Chinese do you see in big citities with Mercs and BMWs. They send their children over to live in the property and put it in their names so they can avoid CGT once sold. It is essentially then an owner occupied property. It's smart but wait until the Chinese economy tanks hard and money pulls out of property in AU and NZ - it will be dire.

>> No.10581745

How strong is that guy? He's not even struggling.

>> No.10581746

you're in aus and still whine about inheritance kys

literally all you need to do is try
>affordable world class education(for now)
>being sick doesn't bankrupt you

what else do you really need?

>> No.10581994

>what else do you really need?
to not see anymore brown people

>> No.10582034

Noticed how there are lots of real estate themed porn movies lately?

>> No.10582044

of course this is just what i have heard from a friend of mine.

>> No.10582195
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unfortunately, it is full.

>> No.10582250
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Or yellow.

>> No.10582258

triple j (lol) did a survey not too long ago and something like 80% of young people want to enter the property market but have less than 10k in savings and live with their parents
it has Less to do with being priced out eland everything to do young people being financially irresponsible
I'm only 24 but plenty of my friends got into the property market by the time they were 26

>> No.10582273

And who do you blame for not educating the next generation? I’ll give you a hint, it starts with b and ends with oomers

>> No.10582278

It’s not just financial irresponsibility, it’s the cost of living in places where you are required to live if you work a white-collar job post-uni and reduced wages and bargaining power.

>> No.10582297

>muh boomer boogeyman
fuck off back to reddut cunt

>> No.10582323

It’s also (((the economy))) moving away from full-time workers to the gig economy of part-time and casual contractors that they can interchange much easier.

>> No.10582361

Do you know what site your on faggot?

>> No.10582362

literally waiting for housing market to crash so I can buy some foreclosed homes.
Anyone got any good sites to browse foreclosed houses?

>> No.10582378

Oi cunts shouldn’t you be at work?

Bought an apartment last year at peak prices :^) I’m gonna have to hodl for 10+ years to make any gains right?

>> No.10582408

not r3ddit?

>> No.10582417

this 2000 extra people a week move to sydney and about another net 2000 local growth. house and aptms are no even close to that rate

>> No.10582421

I’m sorry lad but it’s crashing at the end of this year and never getting as expensive again in your lifetime.

This huge drought is going to crash the Australian economy with no survivors.

>> No.10582440


>> No.10582450

Vancouver has managed it without a skilled sector. You're underestimating the situation. If you're also having issues with drug money raised in Aus being loaned to Chinese locals and repaid back in China to manufacture drugs, prepare your ass glgor when that starts to unravel. Canada is up to between 2 and 3 thousand dead a year on Chinese fentanyl. The casualties are hitting war levels and burning through casual recreational users as fast as junkies.

>> No.10582672

just short real estate lol

>> No.10582768

Apartment markets (at least in Melbourne) haven't really grown that much. It should be considered a different story to actual Housing.
The crash would have to be massive to undo the growth of the past 5 years. If you work in a bank you'll know the government is scrambling to prevent that though, the regulations are cucking us hard.

>> No.10582828

I come back and its people arguing whether the bubble exists at all?

Nigger is this /biz/ or boomervest, shits like crypto in january, why argue whether its a bubble or not when its this obvious, if we predict when it will crash then we'll all have massive gains

>> No.10582852

I was just about to post that before I saw your post, it's a must read to understand how fucked Australia actually is.

>> No.10582899

I sold a town house in Brisbane earlier this year but couldn't get what I paid three years ago for it. Don't kid yourself into thinking there will be an immediate crash we're actually looking at a bleed out and I know the same is already happening with inner city apartments.

>> No.10582937

I should edit my post. This anon is right, inner city apartments are fucked. But everyone except gooks know the rule in Melbourne not to buy aparments within the 7km ring of the city.

>> No.10583304

Like I’ve already said, the last 10 years cunts have said “it’s a bubble” “it’s gonna crash”.. Gov won’t let that happen because it will fuck our whole economy.

>> No.10583347

bubbles are impossible to identify until after they have burst. if there was certainty in the existence of a bubble the market itself would correct before it bursts. there is no certainty, it's just you saying 'omg the price is too high it's a bubble' vs ''omg the price is normal it's not a bubble'.

>> No.10583539


not completely true, SPM-CDO-CDS bubble was known 2 years prior but since CDOs aren't a retail investor security...well there was no one to sound the deflation alarm and anyone in the know was shorting.

>> No.10583602

there is a difference between an engineered bubble like pump and dumps and 'normal' bubbles. in the example of real estate where there are potentially hundreds of billions of dollars with thousands of different participants, it becomes harder to manipulate simply because the amount of capital one has to have to manipulate the market becomes exceedingly difficult. but you are right, some bubbles can be predicted if they are engineered.

>> No.10583675

>government heavily limits land available for development
This brainlet

>> No.10583734

They literally do though, it's an absolute clusterfuck involving years of lobbying to approve development on undeveloped land.

>> No.10584006

>go outside of the major cities and property is affordable

look at this boomer

>> No.10584055

When the guy you were replying to mentioned muh socialism, I figured he was either a LARPing burger, or someone who has spent way too much time on the 4chins.

You're quite right, all sides of politics have benefited from the influx of migrants. The greater concern is that no one wants to spend the infrastructure money for the services all these extra people will need.

>> No.10584091

>Once you import Asia and Africa into your major cities, they begin to resemble the major cities of Asia and Africa in terms of cleanliness. Melbourne and Sydney smell like shit.
A lot of what you said was cogent but that's fucking retarded. Melbourne is clean as fuck except for on weekends when, guess who, suburban white trashbags trash the place.

>> No.10584118

>>government heavily limits land available for development
Yes goy. Its not ridiculously high immigration and credit. None of that matters.

>> No.10584141

The problem is zoning in some respects but it isn't the entire picture.

Negative Gearing massively fucks the housing market as it makes speculative investing in housing extremely non-risky so boomer spend all their super on buying multiple homes.

Australia has one of the worst venture capital markets in the world, there is very little money for business but it's awash for real estate money so it's very easy to get into real estate and encourage from the top to bottom of society.

NIMBY/Overzoning means that housing supply is limited. This is a bigger problem in the inner suburbs as you still have these large block suburban houses, literally 5 minute drives from CBDs, when those entire areas should be medium-high density housing. NIMBY's do not want any urban densification in their innercity suburbs. Land release on the edges of already extremely stretched cities is a terrible idea.

Developers artificially restrict supply by only selling like 1/10th of the housing/apartment stock that already exists, by releasing it in timed batches.

>> No.10584166

Further urban sprawl in Australia is terribad. Australia already has some of the largest cities in the world in terms of land area, yet it's cities have extremely low population.
The problem is NIMBY and overzoning in innercity areas which stop redevelopment in areas people actually want to live.
We're at the point it can take 2-3 hours to drive from where people work, to where they live, in places like Sydney, urban sprawl cannot continue.

>> No.10584209

Look, I somewhat agree, the amount of money young people waste on the dumbest shit is astounding. That’s fine to do but then they trun around and go “I can’t afford a house in the trendiest Melbourne suburb pls government do something!!!” That said, it still isn’t really “affordable” to buy a house these days.

>> No.10584212

He's right and on top of the cheap prices you also get to live far away from the niggers, Muslims, liberals and other worthless scroungers and scumbags... also good Christian, baby wanting, wholesome country girls are superior to city thots

>> No.10584363

Not that. But it being affordable. Typical boomer attitude.

Its only 7x not 12x lol

>> No.10584516

The solution tohorrible urban sprawl is not better zoning however. In Australia we have higher standards and expectations in living conditions. We do not wish to live in urban shoebox apartments, we wish to live on our own slice of land with modest privacy and space to raise a family.

Rather than importing 200,000+ people a year that are going to create the necessity for soulless, modern, high-density and medium-density dwellings, we should be sticking to our native-born population who have a birth rate at about replacement rate, are more inclined to live in regional areas and would not be creating more urban sprawl.

We need to put trees before refugees and koalas before migrants

>> No.10584616

well yeah I earn decent money and spend hardly anything and even if I were to try and buy in sydney I'd be putting 60% of my net income into mortgage payments just so it would be paid off before I died
it's cheaper to buy a large slice of property 100km off the coast line and rent/work in sydney than to buy in sydney

>> No.10584687


>> No.10584700


>> No.10584729

>He thinks I will complain about Leafland housing crash

Get fucked

>> No.10584836

mfw 33 owning two houses in Brisbane

>> No.10584914
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>> No.10585733


You speak as if white people go to the city.
It's chockas full of chinks. I haven't been to the CBD in years because of how (((diverse))) it is

>> No.10585824

I should’ve done this instead of buying an apartment in Melbourne. Having a mortgage for 30 years is anxiety inducing

>> No.10585839

you uh don't have a mortgage for 30 years. you have a mortgage amortized over 30 years on 2-5 year terms.

>> No.10585860

You sound like you know what you’re talking about. Should I hold the apartment or buy something half it’s price in the sticks, which is what I’m leaning to right now...

>> No.10585874
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>mfw 33 owning two houses in Brisbane

>> No.10585890

really a personal judgement call man. how much more convenient is it where you are now versus living in the rural? and how much is that difference worth to you?

real estate is a subjective thing. nobody can predict the market going up or down with any certainty so i can't say it's going to move up or down.

>> No.10586020
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Great thread but still not seeing solid ideas for how to profit from an impending real estate crash here in australia.

Do you simply wait for the crash and then buy low then sell high later down the track? My best mate just literally bought a house so I feel bad for him

>> No.10586199

22 here, bought my first home this year. I had to spend almost $90,000 straight out of my savings to make 20% deposit, fees and other costs. Bought a home for $415k which is a steal for only 25 mins from the city where I live. 900 square meter block, two stories, two bathrooms and a pool with a nice backyard and surrounded by a nature reserve. Feelsgoodman but also cognisant of the fact that I have a fucking mortgage to pay off.

Want to nail it as quick as possible, might buy the shitty run-down lot next to me if it ever goes up for sale, would be reasonably easy to snag it for $250k, do it up with around $30k, then rent it out til it's close enough to payed off after like 15 years and keep it as a guest house. Or simply demolish the fuckin thing and expand my block. Who knows.

But I agree about the financial irresponsibility part. I spent my entire life poor as fuck, watching my parents struggle. For years I worked hard as hell. From my 14th birthday, it's never been more than 3 weeks that I haven't had a job. Worked 2 jobs and ran my own business while studying at uni just to save up enough to move interstate for my current job, and buy a house. Feels good to know I made smart financial decisions, feels disgusting to see the amount of septum-pierced "buy me pizza / squeeze muh butt" fuckgirls and "fuck yeah just got a loan for my new commodore and TV and fridge and computer and phone" retards rolling around thinking they'll ever get into the market doing absolutely f u c k a l l with their time.

>> No.10586259
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i know this isnt quite relevant but anyway

>mate goes to a caryard and finds something hes interested in
>2016 model
>offers to pay for it in cash
>car salesman doesnt know what the fuck to do
>manager is baffled
>"everyone who buys cars here always finances them, i cant remember the last time someone offered us cash"

i mean, this cant be good right? i wonder which financial institution owns all of these auto loans?

>> No.10586438

I'm praying for a crash, I won't be buying housing until the next one

>> No.10586487

Wait for the crash...

>> No.10586586

Agreed, but nobody really knows of the power that the Chinese government has to prop their economy up. This could go on another 10 years. Anyone heavily investing in Chinese stocks right now is a retard, but anyone shorting them is more of a retard.

The level of oversight is laughable. You're basically looking through a thwarted piece of glass held up by the Communist party. They will do everything in their power to maintain control, even if that means allowing companies to blatantly lie on their income statements/balance sheets, because they have connections to party officials. The party will go as far to place their students in US schools to spread their ideology. They are even starting Chinese American Communist Party clubs in Universities.

Remember, the communist party is filled with snakes. They are your enemies. You have nothing to gain by trusting them. We can even go into the legal structure of these companies which can leave your shares worthless overnight. There's a good reason Buffett avoids Chinese stocks like the plague.

>> No.10586591

have you travelled? you do know that pretty much every other country has it worse off than us? We are so fucking lucky to live in Australia

>> No.10586599

Bought my last car in cash/check, felt good.
>so whats your budget for monthly payments
>you want to haggle on the price of the car? w-we usually only discuss the m-monthly payments
>i-i need to get someone

>> No.10586995

> overvalued housing + cheap interest rates (current)
> cheap housing + high interest rates (post crash)

Pick one. Cucked by boomers again.

>> No.10587104

I'm not fucked I don't have any property and I have creepto so I'll be buying the dip bear fag

>> No.10587458

That’s reassuring thanks man, it’s generally how I looked at before I bought. But all these gloom and doom articles/posts are killing my vibe recently

>> No.10587480

So from 82 comments we still haven’t figured out how to capitalise on this situation

The absolute state of /biz/

>> No.10587484
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If the bubble pops will REITs pop as well? I was just going to jump in on that. Please help me.

>> No.10587537


Similar situation to you, anon. 22 y/o with a property and some investments.

Pretty pathetic to see some people do nothing about their situation and blame everyone else.

Every generation has its challenges, but also its opportunities

>> No.10587695

No kidding,

Congratulations on the recent purchase and best of luck for your investments, anon. With some perseverance, we'll be one of the few who make it.

>> No.10587736


What you cunts fail to realize is that all investments are not equal. You buy when a bubble pops or when a bubble is about to begin, not when valuations are higher than they have ever been in 100 years.

You may have some legitimacy in that there are retarded, lazy poor people blaming others for not being able to buy a home. But there are also people who have saved very well during their 20s and 30s and still can't afford a home.

A boomer during the 70s and 80s only had to cobble together 3 years of their annual salary to buy a home outright, AND they were assisted with 10-15% savings rates.

I'm 27 years old and I'm sitting on the sidelines with 200K waiting for the biggest housing crash this country has ever seen.

>> No.10587747

>and how best to capitalise on it
build a house and sell it...

>> No.10587828


you're doing great mate, cheers

>> No.10587860
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It's simple. You wait until it pops.
Then you buy after the crash.

You never short the 'top'.. people are stupid and make continue buying anyway. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

So you wait

>> No.10587888

I don’t think a crash will happen m8, just a plateau, slight reversal

Do you X amount of years you’ll wait for the crash before you put money into something?

>> No.10587893


I feel bad for you, you've been a wagie trading all your youth away for a pittance for the last 8 years, and now you have a mortgage you will be paying off for decades and the property market is tinkering on the edge of a crash.

Those people you looked down on might soon be looking down on you anon. Don't be too smug. And don't get me wrong, I am also financially responsible, never live beyond my means, always buy cheap pre owned cars, saving my money and investing. But christ the fact you actually bought a house, it makes me think you are just as fucking dumb as the retards who takes a loan for a new commodore and a tv.

You know what you should do. Go rent your house out right now and move back in with your parents. It's the only thing that will save you because you seem very financially irresponsible to be buying a home in the current climate. Did you do it to look cool so you can say you have a house at 22? It's just your way of having the latest iphone. A home is a liability not an asset. It's only an asset if its putting money in your pocket.

>> No.10587917


No asset bubble goes up as far as housing has in Australia without a significant reversal.

Sydney is already down 5% for the year, is that what you call a slight reversal? 10%? 20%? 40%?

We're Ireland, it's 2007 and you're about to get fucked.

>> No.10587929

Nigga when did houses ever go backwards in price? Show me that chart

>> No.10587945
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>> No.10587946


>this time it's different to all the other times in history housing has become a bubble

>> No.10587967
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us market

>> No.10587974

Bought a 1 bedroom shitbox in Sydney at the peak of the bubble last year for 850k. No larp.

How fucked am I?

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>> No.10588004
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Put it on the market now for 900k, you might get a buyer. Credit is still reasonably cheap and there are plenty of suckers around.

>> No.10588029
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Oh, sweetie you have no idea how bad it is

>> No.10588033

>10-15% savings rate

You do realise that meant mortgage rates were 18%.
Boomers got justed.

>> No.10588072

Proper fucked.

Expect the next OCR announcement from the RBA to remain unchanged. But ask yourself how is this possible when the UK and US are all raising their interest rates? How is it sustainable that Aus banks can continue to borrow money at a higher rate of lending without passing it on. It's not.

Watch the panic when interest rates start to rise more than a few basis pts.

>> No.10588113

Have you seen where they are putting all the people these days
>We do not wish to live in urban shoebox apartment

>> No.10588118


Not if they saved.

Remember, rent was cheaper too.

>> No.10588427

More like guess how the Government will prop it up. Super as a deposit? Interest rates are tax deductible? We have plenty of Chinese buyers but what about Arabs or Indians?

>> No.10588435

>i can buy 3 houses in brisbane for the price of a house in sydney

>> No.10588588

Aus here, looking forward to the crash mate. Gonna buy up all the positive geared properties

>> No.10588617

I'd rather have the cashed up immigrants than unskilled worker immigrants coming and increasing crime rates to be honest

>> No.10588688

Well you don’t get to pick either cunt cause you get both

You get the poo dominos drivers that undercut the young australian and increase demand for shitbox apartments and the cashed up Chinese that price a young Australian out of a family home.

>> No.10588788

same, good luck to you

>> No.10588809

I thought australian immigration system is based, I am a kraut engineer and would need to go through the process of showing aussie immigration office that my skills are in shortage.

>> No.10589007


yes. but look at the actual list of "skill shortages". it includes bullshit like.. massage therapist (i.e. hookers), hairdressers, chefs... like we don't have enough of these useless cunts

its gotten so bad theres colleges in india that take you from high school diploma through a specific set of skills just so you have a high chance of getting an aussie visa.

>> No.10589080


im getting my east europe girlfriend a visa with a fucking florist certificate that cost 5000 gbp lol. she's a florist so she's given a "skills shortage" expedited visa?? fuck lol

>> No.10589344

Amerifat here, we're due for a good housing crash. Let these boomers and gen-Xers lose their shit. Prices are way too high. A lot of people who can't even afford a house anyways seem to think a housing market crash is a bad thing. When it's actually in their best interest to get in on the ground floor, price-wise.

>> No.10589635

So /biz/s consensus is:
>Don't buy a house now
>Buy on the dip
>Find value in the bubbles current state (sell rent as much as possible whilst rates are high)

That's nice but what about us >10k's?

>> No.10589687
File: 296 KB, 2048x1980, neet life.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]


>England and all other socialist shitholes will suffer housing market crashes worse than 08.

>be a neet
>make crypto gains
>buy cheap properties after crash
>rent it out
>still be a neet

i like this timeline

>> No.10589945
File: 101 KB, 668x1370, 1519936314019.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]

>tfw 26 with only 25k dollarydoos
Am I failure?
I have spent the past few years in Europe working and traveling so I don't really have a bad life, but reading about you fuckheads at 22 with 100k is making me depressed

Do you nerds live at home and not contribute at all to mum and dad?

>> No.10590129

move to another country for a while, buy low, wait for crash, sell high, then buy into aussie market low

>> No.10590248

Yes REITs will get vaped hard if the housing market goes boom. Their value is directly tied to the worth of the underlying property & mortgages.

>> No.10590279

>We do not wish to live in urban shoebox apartments, we wish to live on our own slice of land with modest privacy and space to raise a family.

You can't, population is too high. The population must be stabilized by stopping immigration and lowering the birth rate. That or hope your boomer parents let you have their house when they die (Neither of my parents own a house anymore hooray)

>> No.10590781
File: 81 KB, 600x656, IMG_2186.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]

>recreational opiate user
Little sympathy m8

>> No.10591019

no it isn't, Sydney mar 2017 quarter to mar 2018 quarter is only down 0.5%. largely due to the increased lending restrictions and interest rate hikes. the market is already cooling down, you think the market will drop 30% now to make up for the fact that there has been double digit growth since 2013?

if i were you, i'd be scared that i missed the boat and priced out forever from the market.

>> No.10591085

with the priced out youth its impossible for any support to keep property price up, its more profitable for entrepreneurs to move overseas for higher tax rates and lower purchase price, because wage stagnation is preventing youth from becoming buyers, yes investors will keep prices up for a while, while they burst brain cells and fomo, but the only support for the current price are chinese investors that no longer are making a heavy profit

>> No.10591193

the youth do not matter. the only thing that matters is the inflow of capital to the market. as long as Sydney is desirable destination for wealthy people. even if the youth cannot afford it today, all the elderly who do own the homes will pass it down to their children and concentrate the properties within their own families. unless there is a situation like a natural disaster that makes Sydney one of the least desirable places to live, property prices in the long run, will be stubbornly high.

>> No.10591262

Except without buyers to support the current market or make home investment profitable, theres no reason for investors to buy in, and with youth being so poor now, rent prices are dropping already, with less return on investment, and less people able or willing to support the current price, the value of homes will inevitably crash as investors lose interest

>> No.10591337

no reason for investors to buy in will mean prices will stagnate, not crash. as long as nothing forces people to sell en mass, there will be no large correction.

because of the rising prices new developments have been focused on the luxury market where the margins are higher. to capture capital from people below that market investors will simply create and market non-luxury properties to them. detached houses will make way for non-luxury multi-family properties which will still drive up house prices but allow lower wagers to buy into the market while still profiting developers.

a crash requires an event that forces people to sell, barring war or natural disaster, i don't see it happening.

>> No.10591449

if investors cannot run a profit, they will sell, as land is high cost right now it is only profitable to make high value constructions, as Australian policy is to heavily limit land available for development, without profit this stress will drive investors to sell early, while families sell a little later as the panic hits them, I think a 60-65% correction is in the books, and the bubble itself is obvious to anyone who looks (I own a 7 bedroom inner city home in the USA in a lower middle class area, it was only 139,000 dollars, meanwhile, in Australia, homes in mining ghost towns with 2 bedrooms cost a good 150,000 dollars)

such a market only makes sense from within australia, with people unable or unwilling to pay the high prices, the prices will inevitably be forced down to meet support, especially with so many investor sellers, and with an oversaturation of the sellers market, the prices will fall below that support, as investors panic and sell their portfolios

>> No.10591554

investors cannot turn a profit? in what way? by rental income or by development? if by development tent no new properties will be bought to further development if there is no profit to be had. if by rental income, what makes you think people will not continue to rent out for a profit now through airbnb or long term? the individual circumstances may vary and there is no statistics to ascertain how leveraged people with rental properties are and how much rent must fall for them to consider selling. that is a wish fulfillment belief.

unless you can point to me what can cause people, typical homeowners, to sell on mass, i cannot see why there would be a sharp correction. even with new interest rates and more stringent lending limits, people refuse to sell en mass. prices YOY have dropped 0.5%

>> No.10591698

>buy Brisbane property
>rent it out
>spend 350,000 - 400,000 AUD
>make about 1200 a month in profit
>left with strict legal guidelines that make rental ownership riskier

>buy a chicago property
>buy a 4 flat duplex
>spend 200,000 to 250,000
>rent it out
>make 600-700 per unit
>have income diversified through 4 units
>make 3000 per month overall
>twice as much gain for half as much investment
>house values will continue to rise reliably
>this is what home investment looks like anywhere but Australia

the return is not enough to justify the cost, investors are already struggling to sell because there arent enough buyers, and the impending panic will be huge

>> No.10591751

I think you're neglecting capital flight from China as a major driver. Say rich Chinese make great efforts to smuggle their money out of China and bolthole it in real estate. Why would they ever repatriate that money back to China? Where else can they stash their money if they sell?

We've been throughly fucked by our own politicians.

>> No.10591777

They'd never repatriate to china, they would repatriate to a more stable economic footing though

>> No.10591812

can someone explain the pic op chose

>> No.10591835

well, we all make our own bets and i'm betting on the fact that some markets are highly desirable locations that people will always want to pay top dollar for.

people who did not buy 3-4 years ago, unless they have a windfall, will be priced out of those homes they could have afforded at that time.

if it is more profitable to you to invest in properties in Chicago, so be it. but not all investors, or even the typical, may be represented by your investment views.

>> No.10591866

I picked it because these markets make me feel dead inside

>> No.10591923

So your idea of a positive investment, is to invest in a market that will at best plataeu, and at worst plummet to potentially a third of current value?

>Be /biz
>buy high
>sell low

>> No.10592104

well first of all, your statement is speculative in itself. second of all, what is the scenario you are presenting? 3-4 years ago would i have bought into a property in Sydney or bought property in Chicago? I would've bought into Sydney if i was Australian and I would have bought into Chicago if i lived in Chicago. IF i was Australian, I would not have bought an investment property in Chicago because first, it's far as fuck away and i'd have to pay someone to manage the property. secondly I don't like Chicago because I know nothing about it so i'm not going to put money in some far flung place i have no knowledge of.

in hindsight had i invested into Sydney 3-4 years ago, my property would be up 70% meanwhile in Chicago the median price is barely up 10%

>> No.10592245

And what force would possibly drive that price up further when cities are already stagnating in value and population, take your gains, dont hodl the crash, what are you, a digimarine?

>> No.10592319

because I'm already up 70% and i can airbnb the property for hundreds of dollars a day? so I can afford to hold onto the property with no loss? that I have long term goals and i think property in desirable locations will always be in demand?

if we're going to go with why don't we invest in the best things all the time, we all should've just thrown our money into amazon and rented to live. but that's life, hindsight is 20/20.

>> No.10593372

>no reason for investors to buy in will mean prices will stagnate, not crash

lack of liquidity in a market forces a downtrend, like if people want to sell their homes but no one's buying at their asking price, given enough time they'll be forced to reduce their price if they want a sale

real estate stagnation leads directly to price drop

>> No.10593429

After years and years and years. Hope you can wait.

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