Was it all luck?

[Anonymous No.10561945]

>Buffett, despite his untarnished reputation in mainstream business press, remains rarely cited within traditional academia. A 2004 search of 23,000 papers on economics revealed only 20 references to any publication by Buffett. A significant share of references simply rebut Buffett's statements or reduce his own success to pure luck and probability theory. William F. Sharpe (1995) called him "a three-sigma event" (1 in 370), Michael Lewis (1989) a "big winner produced by a random game".

[Anonymous No.10561963]

>>10561945
I've wondered this a lot...what about Buffet inherently makes him different than a lot of other investors out there? When you look into it it's tough to come up with an answer.

Buffet = three-sigma event IMO

[reluctant kneepad girl No.10561973]

everyone who makes big will basically tell you 100% luck but they have strategies that expose themselves to as much luck as possibly

[Anonymous No.10561983]

>>10561963
What does three stigma event mean?

[Anonymous No.10561987]

Everything in life is luck. All things being equal luck is the deciding factor, but even then, all things are most definitely not equal. Some people are prettier, more talented, smarter etc, and that boils down to luck of the draw as well. No matter how you look at it, luck is all you need to succeed.

[Anonymous No.10562004]

>>10561983
Three standard deviations moron

[Anonymus No.10562005]

>>10561945
He sure had tons of luck, otherwise there would be much more people like him

[Anonymous No.10562058]

>>10561945
>>10561963
No. Unlike you idiots who go around looking at trend lines he didn't do that. He didn't day trade. He didn't buy low and sold high.

The guy looked at the financials of the company, the value, the growth, if their product or service will be used by majority of Americans and if the company will last the next 20 to 50 years. He saved alot, then reinvested majority of his earnings back into the companies.

That's pretty much it.

[Anonymous No.10562078]

>>10561945
>>10561963
>>10561973
>>10561983
>>10561987
>>10562004
>>10562005

>muh luck

this is why you niggers will stay poor

[Anonymous No.10562127]

>>10562058
and there's no intrinsic reason why fundamentals of a company should correlate with the price of its stocks. he just happened to be lucky and be born/convinced it's the way it will go in a time when this became the trend.

public share publishing companies will eventually abuse the fact that they -in practice- aren't obliged shit to their public shareholders

then prices and company fundamentals will diverge, and people worshipping buffet like a prophet will go poor

[Anonymous No.10562164]

>>10562058
it was a good strategy for being born at the beginning of the biggest bullrun of all time.
but it really was a different time. he bought 40 acres of land fod 1400 bucks at 14.

[Anonymous No.10562170]

>>10562058
Short it, it will probably dump soon when his next worth will be his fucking coffin

[Anonymous No.10562171]

if warren buffet would be young today, he would invest it all in tron

[reluctant kneepad girl No.10562175]

>>10562078
bitch, interviews with the guys SAY ITS LUCK
all VALUE INVESTORS admit it luck

say uneducated

[Anonymous No.10562180]

>>10561945
becoming a billionaire from scratch is pure luck.
becoming financially independendent (with maybe a few million) at 40 is hard work and smarts.

[Anonymous No.10562185]

>>10562127
>and there's no intrinsic reason why fundamentals of a company
In the short term but in the long term, if the company assets is worth exactly as the stock, the earnings is extremely high, high dividend why wouldn't anybody want it?

All you have to look at is companies history and do your own due diligence. Also companies are obliged to shit because a lot of CEO's net worth is stocks, the entire boards networth is in stocks otherwise they won't be in the board.

[Anonymous No.10562194]

>>10562127
> there's no intrinsic reason why fundamentals of a company should correlate with the price of its stocks
lol

[Anonymous No.10562207]

>>10562127
>there's no intrinsic reason why fundamentals of a company should correlate with the price of its stocks

imagine being this retarded

[Anonymous No.10562223]

>>10561945
>Was it all luck?
Buffet is the modern JP Morgan, when Morgan died he did not own fuck all...he was just a front man for the Rockafellas/Rothchilds

[Anonymous No.10562239]

>>10562058
He does buy low and sell high though. He buys when people are panicking about a strong company. Then he holds for decades or years.

[Anonymous No.10562270]

All these old rich boomers think that they created their own success but if you had the money Warren had in the 70s its almost impossible to not be a billionaire by now

[Anonymous No.10562271]

>>10562058
He does buy low and sell high though. He buys when people are panicking about a strong company. Then he holds for decades or years.

He literally has teams of analysts who look at fundamentals for him and analysts to perform TA so that he picks good entry/exit points. When you have as much money as him you are forced to have a diverse portfolio and you need team members to help you identify so many companies.

[Anonymous No.10562277]

>>10561963
self fulfilling prophecy. anything he buys becomes a hot item as soon as he buys it.

[Anonymous No.10562302]

>>10562058
He got bailed out by the govt in 2008 you peanut brain. He bought insurance companies then used the float to buy private businesses. This exposed all businesses under his umbrella to massive losses in the last crisis and the govt had to save him or he would have gone bankrupt. He’s a fraud. At this point BRK has so much cash on hand I doubt he will need a bailout next time

[Anonymous No.10562320]

>>10562180
Warren Buffet was the first and only non-jew that legendary value investor Ben Graham ever hired. It’s luck in the sense he was allowed to become the token goy of Omaha

[Anonymous No.10562322]

>>10561945
you can call him lucky for being one of the first people to be exposed to, and take advantage of value investing. by the time everybody else caught up he had enough of a head start to snowball his success

[Anonymous No.10562333]

>>10562322
>he drinks the jewish look-aid
KYS

[Anonymous No.10562370]

Boomer born before all the big bull runs.
You could have bought any of the big companies back then and be a millionaire now

If u invested in Coca-Cola 50 years a go you would be rich, Wells Fargo, pretty much any bank right now, tech companies etc.

He bought companies with good value that he could see were used by a large portion of Americans, that’s about it.
He looked around him and bought the companies other people needed or used.

>buy whatever big company that makes a product widely used
>invest a large amount of money
>wait 50 years
>?????
>manipulate the market and shill
>profit!

[Anonymous No.10562482]

>>10561945
>>10562058
>>10562185
>>10562194
>>10562207


Theres absolute NO correlation between the fundamentals of a company and future value of stocks. Pic related shows a correlation of 0.11 between owners earnings and close price between 2008 - 2018 for 3749 US stocks excluding banks and investment trusts.

Buffet got rich out of insider trading and backdoor deals. Its as simple as that.

[Anonymous No.10562490]

>>10561945
>>10562370
This. He was born at right time for insurance to take off and become a government enforced monopoly.

[Anonymous No.10562506]

>>10562302
So your saying he's an insider's insider?

[Anonymous No.10562541]

>>10562370
So all 86 year olds that have bought stocks should be billionaires. You are dumb as shit.

[Anonymous No.10562548]

>>10562541
They would if they were rich. Just another case of the rich getting richer.

[Anonymous No.10562586]

>>10562541
Only those that had 500k to invest and made a career out of it.
It obviously wasn’t all luck, but he is not genius, he didn’t buy Facebook and called most tech companies rubbish, yet Apple became the first company to break 1trillion and FANG has higher marketcap than the rest of the market combined.

What sort of godlike investor completely disregard the greatest investment opportunity possibly in history and still makes it?

[Anonymous No.10562601]

All he did is getting at the BOTTOM of the stock market and never sell.

Just like all Bitcoin whales did is getting at the bottom of Bitcoin and never selling.

[reluctant kneepad girl No.10562603]

>>10562482
>fundamental analcist can be boiled down into one metric

[Anonymous No.10562609]

>>10562180


You just described why life is a scam.

[Anonymous No.10562637]

>>10562586
The dumb fuck will miss on the biggest bull run in history (bitcoin) too. He proves he's just another boomer. If you are bright then you are bright to see things like bitcoin.

[Anonymous No.10562639]

>>10562603

I can show you more graphs debunking fundamental analysis if you want? ;^)

[Anonymous No.10562657]

>>10562586
>What sort of godlike investor completely disregard the greatest investment opportunity possibly in history and still makes it?

Not once, but twice. he is a no-linker, remember?

[reluctant kneepad girl No.10562669]

>>10562639
show me low debt + low PE ratio vs long term price

[Anonymous No.10562692]

These are copes from strong EMH retards wanting "muh free market" to be perfectly efficient. This is the same logic that makes men worse at investing compared to women by using "risk-adjusted" returns instead of just returns.

[Anonymous No.10562709]

>>10562669

I’ll run my program and get back to you within an hour. Bit busy now

[Anonymous No.10562713]

I will be a multi millionaire from Link and I barely understand anything to do with investing.

[Anonymous No.10562715]

>>10562541
they would have made 10000% gains on what they put in thats true

[Anonymous No.10562719]

Just as an addendum, the guy has a photographic memory and can recite the balance sheet of every company on the stock exchange. He knows every company better than the CEOs of the companies. What a wild fucking coincidence, huh? DUURRR LUCK.

[Anonymous No.10562754]

>>10562719

the guys a fucking literal autist who drinks 25 cans of coke a day

[Anonymous No.10562757]

>>10562271
>He does buy low and sell high though. He buys when people are panicking about a strong company. Then he holds for decades or years.
He buys due to Valuation. He is a value investor. He happens to buy when people are panicing because that's when the value of the company becomes good.

>He literally has teams of analysts who look at fundamentals
He got to this point because of value investing. TA don't out perform the market over the long run and he knows that because he has said numerous times.


>>10562302
>He got bailed out
No. He was actually one of the people who didn't need bailout because he thought 2008 valuations of stocks were too high. He was investing in bonds because they gave a better return. It played out well for it.

[Anonymous No.10562802]

>>10562713
the best part is that you actually think that

why are all stinkies so delusional?

[Anonymous No.10562821]

>>10562754

This is just a myth for brain dead normies. All that sugar would have killed him by now. He just perpetuates the coke meme because he owns a percentage of Coca Cola and obviously has a vested interest in seeing it succeed

[Anonymous No.10562829]

>>10562821

no, he actually does drink 43 cans of cherry coke a day. look it up.

[Anonymous No.10562902]

>>10561945

>be of age just as the stock market crashed in the 1920s
>be from a rich family
>invest at the bottom of a bubble crash, and buy slowly on the way up
>entire economy of the world goes from massive recovery
>benefit from buying the bottom with parents money and holding the entire time. never have to worry about selling the top.

Why is he worshiped? i never fucking understood the bullshit. he literally bought the bottom and just held.

[Anonymous No.10562903]

>>10561945
>be born in middle of nowhere 6 months after biggest stock market crash in history
>dad owns a fuck ton of farm land with good access to growing markets like Chicago and St. Loius
>Dad becomes rich because people still need to eat
>dad uses money to invest and become government man
>dad has to travel to East Coast a ton so buying more stock
>dad start buying stocks in sons name for long term hodl with less taxes
>dad influences government to make these profits less taxes
>but also dad turns down higher government pay because not a hypocrite
>lazy fucking boomer son continues to hodl almost never selling for profit or making deals
>lazy fucking boomer son just sits there and watches money grow with the US economy for entire life
>only acquires safe assets
>doesn't contribute to economy, technology, knowledge at all
>never even uses it to bang movie stars
>mfw people call this guy a genius and suck hsi dick all day long for "stock tips"

[Anonymous No.10562922]

>>10562719
>dude has a rare, unusualy photographic memory
>totally not luck guise

[Anonymous No.10562943]

>>10562922
how important is remembering spreadsheets when you can just look them up really easy

[Anonymous No.10562984]

>>10562943
Ask him>>10562719

[Anonymous No.10563014]

What is luck even? If you were a retard(or just not informed yet) during the booms, then you weren't gonna make money anyway. There are 3 things needed for luck: being at the right place, at the right time and with the right knowledge and also right amount of capital. That's literally it.

If you knew about Facebook/Google ads and shopify back in 2011 you could've made some serious money selling stuff, just because you were at the right place at the right time with the right knowledge. Same goes with Bitcoin, ETH(LINK now?) Stock market, recessions, trends, new industries(industrial revolution, internet etc).

There will 100% be money making opportunities in the future, you just gotta make sure you are prepared when the time comes.

[reluctant kneepad girl No.10563032]

>>10562709
if you really deliver that would be great
am have tons of "fundamental" metrics can give you, VE to market cap would be next one !

[Anonymous No.10563212]

>>10562669
>>10562709
>>10563032

Here you go.

As you can see, low debt/equity (<30%) and low PE (<30) ) is not very well correlated with price over time. I've split up the conditions into ranges in the graph. You can also have both falling and rising debt/equity (at low PEs) leading to the stock price increasing over time. But theres also a large number of outliers that don't follow the trend.

Now that I've made my point across, thats it. Do your own analyses. You're lucky I even did this for free, Mr Pajeet.

[Anonymous No.10563341]

>>10561945
He's about as lucky as a top poker player.

Unlike the rest of us, he folds strong hands but when he has a large margin of safety in an investment he pushes his advantage.

People attributing his success to luck are mostly coping wagecucks.

Sure there is a luck element to it, there's no denying that, but if he was put in someone else's body with $0 to his name and the knowledge he has now, he could become a $1M in <5 years easily, and $10M in <20.

[Anonymous No.10563346]

>>10563212
what is this even? PE ratio is only useful comparing similar companies in the same time period. what are all these dots supposed to represent? where's the timeline? do you have any idea what you're doing?
and you can't not source your data while you're claiming bias.

[Anonymous No.10563357]

>>10563346
>what are all these dots supposed to represent?

do you even know how to read graphs lol?

[Anonymous No.10563371]

>>10561945
warren buffet is a fucking idiot
he thinks drinking coca cola is fine because kids drink it and thinks he'll live long if he eats like a six year old

http://fortune.com/2015/02/25/warren-buffett-diet-coke/

what has this fossil ever created or invented in his 84 years on this planet? he really should not be a household name
nobody will be talking about him 10 years after he passes

he didn't even think the internet would be important, and still doesn't understand bitcoin

[Anonymous No.10563431]

>>10561945
How many of those people in academia are super rich? Not many I'd imagine.

[Anonymous No.10563443]

He made a few lucky trades early on and then became a celebrity as being the Oracle. Once he became a celebrity then all he has to do is buy a stock and then everyone else gets word of it and pumps it. Also, he gets special deals and preferred stock which means he's guaranteed to make returns, all because he is a celebrity.

[Anonymous No.10563451]

>>10563431

You need money to make money idiot.

Warren Buffet started out with 100k.

[Anonymous No.10563463]

>>10563451
Anyone can make and save 100k.

[Anonymous No.10563486]

Anything to do with investing is mostly luck, so what do you think?

[Anonymous No.10563490]

>>10563212
>>10562482
what the fuck is this guy plotting? correlation of closing price with what? correlation of owner's earnings with what?

[Anonymous No.10563491]

>>10563431


Not that you even have the faintest clue of what survivorship bias even means...

But you need money to make money. The more you have, the more you make as compound interest sets in.

Warren Buffet started out with $105k, which wasn't even his money to begin with since they were all just loans given to him for his investment firm.

Not many academics even have that kind of money unless they have a trust fund in their name.

[Anonymous No.10563510]

>>10563490

>babyys first attempt at correlation

[Anonymous No.10563531]

>>10563491
I work in academia and professors make plenty. Certainly enough to save up 105k. Obviously you'll make more starting off with that money, but within a lifetime anybody should be able to make a couple million if they set their mind to it.

[Anonymous No.10563541]

>>10561963
This is a cute euphemism for pact with the devil

[Anonymous No.10563545]

>>10563531
>but within a lifetime anybody should be able to make a couple million if they set their mind to it.
not by working in academia they dont
robert kiyosaki is right

[Anonymous No.10563551]

>>10563545
That's why you become a public intellectual and make money that way

[Anonymous No.10563552]

>>10563545
Right, you'll need to save and invest.

[Anonymous No.10563557]

>>10562004
Jesus christ, maybe he didnt take statistics you mouth breathing faggot

[Anonymous No.10563603]

>>10563510
>baby's first attempt at charting at not saying what the fuck he's plotting
ur y-axis says it's correlation, which would make since since it's limited to [-1, 1]

but what the fuck does that number mean? correlation between closing price and what?

if y-axis is corr b/t closing price and closing price all the points should have y = 1

u do know what correlation is, right?

ur chart is garbage rip

[Anonymous No.10563629]

>>10563603

Jesus Christ. That absolute statement of pajeet education

[Anonymous No.10563659]

>>10562180
>Becoming a billionaire from scratch is pure luck
>The intermediary step to the above somehow requires hard work and smarts

Go back to shilling shitcoins.

[reluctant kneepad girl No.10563712]

>>10563212
kek
>implying me dont do own analsis
not bad, I'll look into your chart and see for self

[Anonymous No.10563939]

>>10562821
just looked it up.
He drinks 5 cans a day (normal cola and cherry flavour)

[Anonymous No.10563961]

>>10561945
HOW DARE YOU INSULT BUFFETT-SAMA
DELETE THIS IMMEDIATELY

[Anonymous No.10564062]

>>10563939
>he believes Buffet’s propaganda about drinking cola, eating dilly bars to live to 90.

Wow

[Anonymous No.10564070]

>>10563341
He was bailed out by the govt pajeet

[Anonymous No.10564088]

>>10562719
Wow you are a FAGGOT listening to warren Buffett’s propaganda campaign. 100% of Billionaires wage PR campaigns so people will accept their ill gotten wealth

[Anonymous No.10564114]

Warren Buffet is a token non-jew defending the jewish world order. He is a traitor to all Americans. His fortune is based on taking risk with insurance balance sheets and eventually getting bailed out by the govt. He is a fraud

[Anonymous No.10564125]

It's part luck for sure

Buffet admits himself that his partner Charlie munger made better decisions even though he has considerably less

[Anonymous No.10564134]

>>10562004
kys

[Anonymous No.10564150]

>>10561945

He made a good bet on Coca Cola but has been wrong about most shit

He also owns a trailer park empire. Fucking hypocrite

[Anonymous No.10564282]

Buffet was the proto-boomer, he's admitted multiple times how most of his success was due to luck. All of you copers who still want to cling to the delusion of hard work, take a look at this absolute unit.
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Dexter

[Anonymous No.10564320]

>>10562058

The conqueror worm will still come for him

[Anonymous No.10564342]

>all this millennial salt cope itt

based Buffett, he's just smarter than you deal with it

[Anonymous No.10564346]

>>10564282
lol funny guy

[Anonymous No.10564630]

>>10562180
UNDER
RATED
POST

[Anonymous No.10564701]

>>10563371
>Drinks Coke every day
>Still healthy at 84
Yeah, he's lucky.

[Anonymous No.10565170]

>>10564150
>but has been wrong about most shit
Like?

[Anonymous No.10565199]

Buffet and Charlie started with literally nothing.
Through intelligence and hardwork they created the Berkshire Empire, and made billions through that

He is the most BASED man alive and only pajeets here hate him

[Anonymous No.10565278]

>>10564282

jesus, what a legend. i hope i live a life half as great.

[Anonymous No.10565313]

but yeah, from what I understand about buffet is that he takes the long game and invested in low P/E projects with strong fundamentals that payed dividends.

I don't know his history or blunders cause I don't care that much, but I guess there's something to be said about the long game. I'll be entering that if crypto pays off and I have enough starting capital to make 5% annual returns worth while.

[Anonymous No.10565315]

>>10563557
Even when he said "three standard deviations" I still didn't get it. What is the meaning of three standard deviations in this context?

[Anonymous No.10565368]

>>10564282
>he started telling visitors that his wife had died (despite the fact that she was still alive) and that the woman who frequented the building was simply her ghost.

[Anonymous No.10565414]

>>10564062

>actually thinking Buffet doesn't drink 50 cans of coke a day

[Anonymous No.10565476]

>>10564282
>"In one notable episode, Dexter faked his own death to see how people would react. About 3,000 people attended Dexter's mock wake. Dexter did not see his wife cry, and after he revealed the hoax, he caned her for not grieving his death sufficiently."

[Anonymous No.10565490]

of course it's luck, every true self-made billionaire was mostly luck, thats how this shit works.

[Anonymous No.10565500]

>>10565490
Luck plays a role in becoming a billionaire, but millionaire is usually achievable with smart planning.

[Anonymous No.10565756]

>>10565500
>I-I might not b-be able to become a billionaire
>But I'll d-definitely be a millionaire when when I'm 60
Hardworkcucks are sad.

[Anonymous No.10565769]

>>10562586
He was right with facebook though, it didn't even have a transparent business model (other than selling user data to the cia nignogs)

But yeah he doesn't understand shit about tech

[Anonymous No.10565793]

>>10565756
Being rich young is nicer, but would you rather be poor at 60? Plus you can give your kids a head start.

[Anonymous No.10566040]

>>10562127
It maybe is this way now, but It will be about fundamentals in the absence of stimulus, and govt. spending.

[Anonymous No.10566068]

It's called insider trading niggers, he knows so much more than everyone does. It's neither luck or talent.

[Anonymous No.10566080]

>>10565793
So, you're asking if I'd rather be old and poor or young and rich?

[Anonymous No.10566146]

>>10566080
I'm asking would you rather be old and poor or old and rich.

[Anonymous No.10566323]

>>10562637
Protip: he and his buddies are probably invested into it. he just puts on a boomer personna for the idiot masses still reading financial MSM. or he is a boomer but has insider info that crypto BTFO trad. markets

[Anonymous No.10566377]

He told you retards not to buy crypto, and he was right.

[Anonymous No.10566567]

>>10562164
Yes, but what kind of 14 year old has $1400 and not only that. $1400 in fucking 1683!

[Anonymous No.10566571]

>>10562058
that 14yo who owns 5000 Dollar in 1944 that would be70840 Dollar today lol

[Anonymous No.10566606]

>>10566068
Insider trading niggers?

[Anonymous No.10566628]

>>10565315
He is unique.

[Anonymous No.10566646]

>>10563212
Very nice, now graph Donald Trumps + Businesses with the porn industry.

[Anonymous No.10566771]

Academia suck hard at economics (they work for others and make upoer m8ddle class income generally, as opposed to get rich), and what idiot would share the best money making tips in a peer reviewed paper...

[Anonymous No.10567247]

>>10562586
He doesn't invest in things he doesn't understand. He's too old to understand tech, so he doesn't invest in it.

It's generally a good policy, but it can be very limiting.

[Anonymous No.10567290]

>>10567247

[Anonymous No.10567727]

>>10561963
His dad was a freemason, stock broker, and congressman.
https://www.masonrytoday.com/search/index.php?mason=1508

>>10564114
Warren Buffet might as well be jewish

> Some people think Warren Buffett is Jewish. Why would that be?
>He contributes to some Jewish charities, but you don't have to be Jewish to do that.
>He was born and lives in Nebraska, not many Jews there.
Seth Rich is from Omaha and jewish

>He considers himself an agnostic, so religiously he's not Jewish.
>He's invested in Israel, but that doesn't make him a Jew, just a good businessman.
>His mother's maiden name is Stahl, which might mean he has some Jewish ancestors... or might not.
>His former son-in-law is a Jew... Well, that's just a reach.
>Is it because he's the second (wait, what day of the week is it?) richest man in the world?
>Well, we guess there are worse reasons than that...
>Verdict: Not a Jew.
http://www.jewornotjew.com/profile.jsp?ID=467

https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/If-its-good-for-Buffett-and-Gates-its-good-for-the-Jewish-community-379438

[Anonymous No.10567768]

the reason they think of it as luck is because of the information asymmetry that exists between management and investor.

The investor can never really know if management is behaving in a way that will benefit them or if they're talking complete bullshit.

There's no way to know if you've picked a winner even if on paper they sound excellent and have a great business plan. There is never any guarantees. It is partly dumb luck because you could have invested in myspace instead of facebook or whatever; there's no obvious reason why facebook was going to be better than myspace, they are both piles of steaming garbage.

Investing is part luck in the end, no matter how big you think your brain is.

[Anonymous No.10568244]

Amazon used to be worth $1.50.

($1.5k in the 90's would be worth well over 2 million today)

Google was like $85 bucks when it IPOed in 2004. Now it's worth $1.2k per share.


Netflix was worth less than $10.00 in 2011.

Even with fucking Disney you'd triple your money in the past 10 years.

There are always opportunities, and they're not that hard to see if you're well informed.

[Anonymous No.10569144]

>>10562058
>only had $10 mil at 37

[Anonymous No.10569367]

>>10562058
>he guy looked at the financials of the company, the value, the growth,

give me a break. that is some old myth to sell inveseting books. bufffet buys companies to get a monopoly in a industry and then pumps the prices up like airways and railroads.