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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

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10509811 No.10509811 [Reply] [Original]

Guys can we please talk about chainlink's potential market cap.

The team said themselves the network is only being prepared to handle a maximum of 10k nodes. Not everyone will be able to have 100% uptime on those nodes even assuming there is demand round the clock. This infographic assumes a cost of 1 cent per api request. If all 10k nodes are pulling 1k api requests per hour the cumulative yearly revenue of all nodes will be 876 million dollars or about 87600 dollars per node per year.

The market cap of johnson and johnson and amazon have market cap values 5 times higher than their yearly revenue for 2017. Since chainlink's maximum yearly collective network revenue for any year is 876 million then their market cap should be around 4.38 billion dollars when fully adopted. This leads me to believe the maximum price per token will be between 5 and 12.5 dollars depending on circulating supply. 350 million all the way up to 1 billion.

The only anons who will make millions are those holding hindreds of thousands of link or more. This concerns me as half of link holders scream 1000 eoy when this can never happen due to the maximum network capacity of chainlink. Please prove me wrong.

>> No.10509844

>maximum of 10k nodes
Gonna need to see the source on that.

>> No.10509872

Are you trying to start a rational discussion about possible link prices?

Allow me to stop you right there.

>> No.10509875

its probably bs but i can see several enterprise nodes having
1M+ links for huge oracle contracts so its not impossible there will be only 10-20k nodes.
the circulating supply will be very low. this is something we have been warning a lot of people and one of the major reasons why this will moon like crazy.

>> No.10509881

If the network were to reach its cap, it seems very likely they would make efforts to expand the network.

I may just be ignorant to what you're trying to say, but I don't see why any of the numbers you've given aren't scalable.

The cost of an api request, the amount of nodes, the api requests per hour per node, etc. are all numbers that could increase or decrease depending on any amount of circumstances.

However, I have a hard time imagining a future where chainlink is worth a hundreds or thousands of dollars per token.

>> No.10509883

Town crier secure envlave computations will cost more than an api call. LINK will eventually be a secure distributed virtual machine that is cheaper to use than ETH. Eventually ETH will just be the database to LINK's network

>> No.10509897

1k eoy is a meme. $10-20 eoy 2019.

>> No.10509899

As delusional as that post is I find it hilarious to think of ETH just being used as a Link database because of how fucking mad it would make Vitalik.

>> No.10509910

Also, for what it's worth, the assumptions of 1 cent per api request and nodes doing 1k api requests per an hour seem way off.

I would find something like $0.001 per api request and 10k api requests and hour per node more believable, but I could see that being off by a magnitude still.

>> No.10509922
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>> No.10509933
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>> No.10509947

Ok, well that’s not exactly the same as the claim made in the OP.

>> No.10509952

That strikes me as a misreading on your part. The first will not be able to handle 10K nodes but the final will. This does not imply that the maximum is 10K but that it will be able to handle 10K nodes in the final version with no mention of what the actual maximum is.

>> No.10509953 [DELETED] 

How is that differwnt? Their final main network will only handle 10k nodes.

>> No.10509960

1000$ EOY

>> No.10510075

>Town crier secure envlave computations will cost more than an api call. LINK will eventually be a secure distributed virtual machine that is cheaper to use than ETH. Eventually ETH will just be the database to LINK's network
Maybe you're right. With the LINK network being blockchain agnostic it could quite easily become bigger than any of the many of the platforms that use it (Purely because contracts without data will be fairly useless).
There'll be multiple different smart contract platforms all used though.

Rolling for money skelly getting mad

>> No.10510081

Even if its not 10k nodes being the maximum the network will be set to handle. You still need between 800 thousand and 2.283 million nodes at 100% uptime before the price per link can ever hit $1000. Only 19k entities expressed interest in running a node. 1k is actually impossible.

>> No.10510085

what you said in the OP is completely different

>> No.10510090

I admit i misread rory's post.

>> No.10510093

Oh I think 1K is absolutely delusion but I think your calculations are way off as well because they don't take into account nodes or the effect it has on the supply but also because we don't know how this economy will actually function in practice.

We can take guesses sure and I myself would peg Link at $10 when the network was up and running but not for the reasons you gave.

>> No.10510095

It's not impossible. It will require more traffic sure, but couldn't the network handle that many nodes a couple years from now? Also, out of the 19k, surely some plan to run a number of nodes

>> No.10510202

You fools are trying to think far too rationally about the price literally working out numbers and shit. Newsflash to you fucking brainlets, literally everything in crypto is valued purely on speculation right now. What the fuck do you think a project with a genuine use and utility will do to the price? Speculation on its potential will be enormous and no matter how crazy it is you don't want to be that guy who says 'it will literally never hit $____ because muh market cap'

>> No.10510215
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just stop baiting you inbred

>> No.10510220

Also what are the constraints to having 800k+ nodes operating on the network?

And wouldn't the amount of traffic be more crucial to the price per token rather than the number of nodes? If there are 10k nodes handling a massive amount of traffic, those nodes would be getting massive returns. Now if you changed the amount of nodes from 10k to 800k+ with the same amount of traffic, then the returns would diminish.

>> No.10510229

Ill take my 6 figure profit thanks

>> No.10510244

The staking will make sure the rewards are heavily skewed towards having a high stake.

>> No.10510245
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not sure why that QwwqJgj1 opfaggot deleted his post. must be ashamed
here's what he said

>> No.10510266

I'm fairly certain ETH will shit itself to death with even 10K nodes constantly being active and I'm not sure how it will be handled.

>> No.10510297

Why not use the linkpool whitepaper as reference?
Api calls are roughly 5c each and secure enclaves will come at a premium.
Add network growth and blockchain mania and you suddenly have over $100 / link

>> No.10510329

>the assumptions of 1 cent per api request and nodes doing 1k api requests per an hour seem way off.
But they are based on what's happening right now with Oraclize, Salesforce, Docusign, etc.... that's the best information we have right now to make an educated guess

>> No.10510400

Now I see why Vitalik is such a cunt about Link. So it seems that the solution is utilizing mostly other smart contract platforms, or maybe even the team developing their own blockchain based platform. I do remember reading something about how even when the network is used with smart contract platforms other than Eth, there would still need to be an interaction with the Eth network I guess due to Link currently being an Erc token. Was that fud?

>> No.10510412

Good thread. However, everything in crypto becomes overpriced with factor 10-20 during a bubble.

>> No.10510430
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Amazon API Gateway charges $3.5 per MILLION calls - $0.0000035/call.
Hell you can even get 1 million calls per month for free.

Decentralized systems will always consume more resources than centralized systems.

>> No.10510468

LINK to Mnuchin/Phillips 222 page TREASURY REPORT:

Fannie references start on page 83 then page 95 ...


>> No.10510476

That does not imply a maximum. Link FUD boring and dumb, as usual

>> No.10510508

I'm assuming the thing that makes it economically viable is the cost reduction from being able to leverage smart contracts outweighs the cost for increased API costs.

>> No.10510524
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The API economy is growing rapidly. Fintech is one of the major sectors contributing to this growth. For example, Xignite, a service that provides financial market data, did 50 BILLION API requests in July 2015.

Mark Oblad follows Xignite on Twitter. Make of that what you will. Perhaps they're probably already in discussions about a "partnership" behind closed doors.

>> No.10510543

So fucking what if Amazon charges $0.0000035 per call? Oraclize charges 1-5 cents. We don't know how much Chainlink will charge; Sergey said they will take a fee, but probably each node operator can have a set price, or each smart contract creator can have a set price, so it's likely to vary a lot.

>> No.10510582


>> No.10510602

What data do the APIs provide? Some data comes at a high cost, especially if it is resource intensive to generate. Some data is low cost, like weather results.

>> No.10510604

What's this?

>> No.10510610

>Who We Are
We didn’t start off as a market data company. Stephane’s original product was a wealth management platform but he became frustrated when trying to access the market data he needed to power that platform was not available in an easy to digest format. So he created his own APIs. Right away he started getting requests to make those web services commercially available, and a company was born. Fast forward 10 years – today we offer 45 web services, offer more than 1000 APIs, serve more than 1 trillion API calls annually and count 1000 innovative companies as our clients.

>> No.10510627

One of the leading API providers in the fintech sphere. They provide data on financial markets; exactly the kind of thing that could get on the Chainlink network... and Mark Oblad is interested (although that's not totally surprising)... muh dots

>> No.10510629

You are literally a brainlet. The coin is worth what people are willing to pay. End. Of. Fucking. Story.

>> No.10510645
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>> No.10510648

Seriously nigger how did you find this. Where the fuck are you people with other coins.

>> No.10510662

anyone recognize the man in the middle?


CEO of xignite
Nominated for FTF News Fintech Person of the Year and recently named for the second year to Institutional Investor's Tech 50 list of financial visionaries and innovators, Stephane Dubois is a recognized financial data industry executive who founded Xignite to pioneer market data in the cloud. Stephane Dubois is a well-known fintech thought leader and is frequently quoted in publications, including Forbes, MarketsMedia, WallStreet & Technology, Financial News, Bob's Guide, Inside Reference Data, and Venture Capital Journal. He has spoken at numerous fintech events around the world, including Finovate, FinDEVr, Bank Innovation, Next Money, World Exchange Conf., World Finance Information Conf. and The Money Conference. Prior to founding Xignite, Stephane was Vice President of Product Management at Advent Software, the leading provider of software solutions for the investment management industry. Prior to Advent, Stephane held senior product and marketing management positions at Walker Interactive Systems and Oracle Corporation. Stephane holds an MS in Management from M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and MS and BS degrees in international management from the MBA Institute in Paris.

Mark Oblad, COO of Smartcontract is following him on twitter. here is a decent connection to another potential customer

>> No.10510674

I honestly don't think a business will pay 2800 times more for the "convenience" of smart contracts.

>Oraclize charges 1-5 cents
Yes. Because Oraclize is another stupid project trying to make a highly inefficient system compete against highly efficient systems simply because "muh decentralization".

Well what data do you have to provide? API can reference any data you're storing, high cost data or low cost data. It could be some random dudes country of origin or the test results from a $1000 test.

>> No.10510675

Chainlink is this boards qanon

>> No.10510686


>> No.10510704
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w-we aren't getting rich?

>> No.10510706

>I honestly don't think a business will pay 2800 times more for the "convenience" of smart contracts.
Thankfully, your uninformed, retarded opinion on the matter means absolutely nothing.

They will pay. For example, in one of Sergey's talks on Youtube he describes how banks spend "hundreds of thousands of dollars" per DAY coming up with a consensus of various rates across different banks for their transactions. Chainlink will do that, for pennies.

>Yes. Because Oraclize is another stupid project trying to make a highly inefficient system compete against highly efficient systems simply because "muh decentralization".
Oraclize isn't decentralized you turd.

>Well what data do you have to provide? API can reference any data you're storing, high cost data or low cost data. It could be some random dudes country of origin or the test results from a $1000 test.
You don't even know what market Sergey is targeting lol. Just fuck off with your retarded FUD. Seriously irritating.

>> No.10510709

>team developing their own blockchain based platform
theres the bait and switch i was looking for. Now way would they let little people get into something this big

>> No.10510728

Okay I understand doubting Link and having a lot of questions. I get it and it is justified. But Smart Contracts are literally going to revolutionize finance and contracts.

Most API calls are still going to be through regular channels. The ones utilizing Smart Contracts however will more than likely be through things like Oraclize and Link if gets up and going successfully and the cost savings will far outweigh the API call cost.

>> No.10510733

>hurr durr shadow fork meme
Please kys

>> No.10510764

Oraclize is a piece of shit that no high-value smart contract creator, like a bank, would want to use. That's why smart contracts haven't taken off in fintech and financial services yet. They don't have a trustless oracle, yet. But note that the space is primed and ready to jump into smart contracts, e.g. ...

>> No.10510774


>> No.10510793


>> No.10510835

share your wisdom asshole instead of pointing at a flying bullet! This still is an img board

>> No.10510903

Hmm Ipreo got bought out by IHS Markit
>IHS Markit Ltd is a global information provider based in London, United Kingdom.

>> No.10510904

Was writing pretty much this post.

>> No.10510907

>hur dur

am i wrong? institutions have a track record of letting little people fund their projects just to take it and tweak it so they dont have to pay out

>> No.10510917

ChainLink is such a blatant scam, it's not even funny.

>> No.10510925

What does this have to do with Xignite?

>> No.10510946

Ipreo has a loose connection with smartcontract. Somebody can post the info graphic, because I forget entirely.

>> No.10510955

Why would anyone copy Chainlink when they can simply run their own node?

>> No.10510966
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Found it.

>> No.10510981
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Xgnite is partnered with XLM

>> No.10510982

The connection between SmartContract and Xignite is pretty clear, just based on Twitter follows

Also check out this guy
Aaron Wright
>Professor @CardozoLaw, Director of Cardozo Blockchain Project & Tech Startup Clinic; co-founder of @OpenLawOfficial;

The whole smartcontract.com family follows him!

Then, check out @OpenLawOfficial.... they're following Mark Oblad. Note that they only follow 70 people, so they're pretty selective.


Maybe some autists can look into Open Law...

>> No.10510996
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I’m talking about Ipreo

Also this info was posted last night

>> No.10511010

And I'm talking about Xignite and Open Law... This is new info

>> No.10511012
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>> No.10511020

Heres something everyone here needs to realize.

There is no way to predict the future. No one on Earth can give an accurate predication on what the price of LINK will be in 1,2,3+ years. Anyone who tells you "Link can hit X amount with a Mcap of X because of this reason and that reason" is all bullshit. All of it is bullshit. If you have been in the game of investing for awhile you know that the future always surprises you.

the best way to understand when to sell is getting a feel for markets. Its very hard to explain but after awhile you get a gut feeling when something is oversold or over bought.

Its pointless to try and predict the future by extrapolating data from the past. Don't look at bitcoins climb to 20k or Ethereums climb to 1.4k and try to base a prediction off of that. This is an entirely different market with entirely different investors. Hang on for the ride and cross the bridge when you get there.

>> No.10511047

So Mobius?

>> No.10511055
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>> No.10511085

Ah I missed that. Great!

>> No.10511095
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>> No.10511139
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>> No.10511215

I am just worried will all these companies announce that they are using chain link for normies to fomo?

>> No.10511246

It’ll most likely be an announcement of new services they are offering (because they have the chainlink network up and running on their backend). It’s almost as if a company is performing a software update, they don’t make an announcement for it, they do it, then say look we are now able to do this and offering this etc.

>> No.10511262

You guys are still looking at the token price. You don't realize that network usage and staking revenue are by far more important.

>> No.10511300

Exactly. But lack of announcement will affect the LINK prices. I at least want someone from SC team to announce them

>> No.10511328

This. People don’t understand that the systems that will force their users to use it, own a massive majority of Link and will be selling it to late adopting companies. Microsoft / Swift probably 100m each. I wouldn’t be surprised.

>> No.10511330

we are poor at want to stretch our dollar. Once i go all in at a price im happy with im not going to give my self such a headache anymore about it.
I wish it would dip one more time but you guys keep dumping information every fucking day

>> No.10511341
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Sorry for my pajeet English. Probably own*.

>> No.10511366

This. I'm a stinkie linker since before sibos and I'd be surprised if this ever went over $20. The people screeching about $1000 are delusional poorfags.

>> No.10511374

If ETH doesn't solve scaling then the entire dapp ecosystem is dead in the water, we are basically waiting on eth or a competitor to be viable for the use cases hoping to run off them

>> No.10511389
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Have you tried calculating the price of verge, lota, xlm, eth, bch or even btc with that method? It gives btc a value of 0 and link a value of 5. That means LINK is infinite times more valuable than bitcoin.

>> No.10511398

I mean we used dial up before... were just used to instant speeds now. But dial up was very much usable. ETH doesn’t have to be instant. If a transaction takes 20 mins to clear its better than 3 days the banks currently use. Obviously it will eventually be better.

>> No.10511439

>Add network growth and blockchain mania and you suddenly have over $100 / link
i've always said LINK will be $100 by Q2 2019, then it will slowly grow to $500 over the next couple years. i ran the figures a while back and ~$100/LINK always seems to be its natural valuation.

>> No.10511460

Are you smart? I want to believe you. What is your academic background?

>> No.10511487

The that bitcoin went literally vertical straight up and will be in a bear until 2020 won’t make a difference?
>things are different this time
How? I’ve never seen something go so parabolic in my life. What’s even crazier is that I think 100k per bitcoin sounds reasonable but maybe in 5 years. I just think we are farther away from actual adoption then people believe.

>> No.10511564

Conveniently left out how IOTA is one of the sponsors, and they play to compete with chainlink through their own oracle platform.

>> No.10511584


>> No.10511596

>What is your academic background?
academic in biological field.

LINK is in a completely different category to BTC. in fact, i dont even see what BTC is for anymore. smart contracts are basically what crypto was designed for, and the suite of technologies that facilitate that e.g. blockchains (eth, eos, ada etc), LINK and some random security applications are what will drive the market from here on out.

>> No.10511614

Dang, so you have absolutely no business putting valuation on an emerging technology.

Oh well, thanks anyway :(

>> No.10511656

population dynamics is a major part of my practice. seeing how things survive, thrive, grow and out-compete their rivals in various milieus is applicable to all sorts of domains. the crypto space being just one. like i say, LINK's tech in the niche is game changing. it will be huge.

>> No.10511694

Still...absolutely no business giving emerging tech valuations.

>> No.10511702

Link is at least on the level of ripple. At 17bn mcap link would be around 40usd each.

>> No.10511733

>ever using Ethereum or smart contracts
>the ponzi platform that halts to stop every new ponzi is released

>> No.10511748

they are using hyperledger. or a form of the ethereum private chain

>> No.10511763

also, factor in that the market will consolidate and winnow out all the shitcoins, and you'll see the top coins pull in even more of the MC share without the need of a bullrun causing an organic price spike without any additional buying pressure.

>> No.10512024

Great thread, imo, if you are not hodling or building a stack of Link at these prices you are clueless.

>> No.10512054


>> No.10512057

Peter Zeihan?

>> No.10512193
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Is this you guys?

>> No.10512219
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*rubs hands*

>> No.10512221

That calculation is full of shit. Sorry.

What would be the price tag for a node that makes it’s owner 80k a year? Definetly not just 5x80k

I own 2 of some very old scandinavian phone stocks(is this even the correct word?) which make you passive income of 400€ a year. People are willing to buy them 5000€/piece

So passive income x 10 is more realistic

>> No.10512262
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can we get a meme cube with the crown?

>> No.10512265


1000EOY confirmed

>> No.10512288
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>> No.10512296

A price/earnings of 10-2 is more realistic; sp500 trades around 15 most of the time. 80k passive income is worth easily a milly

>> No.10512827

so a valuation of $10B

>> No.10513211

What is that infuriating article