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2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


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9677381 No.9677381 [Reply] [Original]

Bad news guys...not fud but simple math.

I have been taking notes and running tests from pivotal tracker. On average the team completes 5 tasks per week. The Icebox has a total of 110 tasks waiting to get scheduled. Plus the 2 weeks already scheduled would = a total of 6 months of scheduled tasks. Now, it only gets worse, the team on average adds 3 new tasks a week to the icebox. If you add that we add an average of another 4-6 months.

Based on my analytics main net will not be until 4/19-6/19.

>> No.9677402

>>9677381

This is not too surprising. The oracle problem isn't going to come to the fore for quite a while. We first need blockchains up and running before we need to start worrying about how they will interact.

>> No.9677404

Based on the reddit spacing, OP has to go back

>> No.9677406
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9677406

>>9677381
>Analy
>Ticks
Stop right there anal faggot !

>> No.9677420

>>9677381
You cannot draw this conclusion Anon. Do not worry Anon. MainNet soon Anon. Much Moon soon Anon.

>> No.9677434

>>9677404
just trying to

help (you)

neets out

>> No.9677442

>>9677420
See digits Anon. Must Relax Anon.

>> No.9677458

Try and debunk if you want as I would love to think main net is less than a year away but I am afraid I underestimated how many jobs will be added to pivotal considering half the contracts are not in there yet.

>> No.9677481

>>9677381
It only get's worse. A rule of thumb in software development is that the last 10% take 90% of the time.

>> No.9677483

this is a psyop!!!!

>> No.9677490

>>9677481
welp. there's another 6 months. Now were at eoy 2019. thanks anon

>> No.9677497

>>9677458
Team is getting bigger Anon. Much work in less time Anon. Kek approves Link Anon. Much Blessings Anon.

>> No.9677527

>>9677381
They used to work so much faster, I think something is happening. The last time they stopped working they released alpha...

>> No.9677533

>>9677497
They haven't hired anyone new since I started running the analytics. If they add another person, ok shave off 1 month total..you still looking mid to end 2019.

>> No.9677546

So what? You think the token can‘t moon because the mainnet isn‘t ready?
I‘ll wait til 2025 for mainnet if I have to.

>> No.9677553

>>9677527
You have a point here...steve has not done any public coding for the last month. He will go into pivotal daily and move/add tasks around but that is about it. He used to average over 80 commits/month now under 40.

If he slows down anymore I will have to add some time to my overall calculation

>> No.9677560

>>9677527
>>9677533
Market sell Asap Anon. Things are not good Anon. (people) need more Link at cheap prices Anon.

>> No.9677567

>>9677553
Rumor is he’s in a private repo

>> No.9677566

>>9677546
Exactly this. The only way it would moon without main net is marketing....and guess what there is absolutely 0. The only and I mean only way link gets a moon before main net is if some "partner" comes out and tells everyone they are using chainlink before main net....

>> No.9677582

None of this fud matters. We created a powerful egregore by fapping to a sigil.

>> No.9677590

>>9677567
Yes he setup a few potential clients contracts for test net. Overall working with potential clients pre main net will slow down completion time. I will keep my eye on this and add time to my calculation if necessary.

>> No.9677604
File: 318 KB, 480x480, 1527673754802-biz.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9677604

This is a shill fud thread. I didn't think I would put those words together until today. The bump rate in this thread is huge.
Just a heads up. This is a buy sign.

>> No.9677615

>>9677590
I thought he was doing reputation system work?

>> No.9677618

>>9677566
That could happen at literally any moment that we find new connections and info or that some kind of marketing starts.
Last time chainlink went to ATH we had even less info and even less connections and it still mooned.

At best we have time til next year to accumulate as much as we can.

>> No.9677637

OMG this FUD is getting to me! Someone save me before I market sell after my shift at McDonalds is OVER!!!

>> No.9677640

>>9677615
The team admitted to private repo but stated it had nothing to do specifically with the node itself; therefore, is private...basically meaning this is work for a client.

>> No.9677657

>>9677618
You will have until march 2019 to accumulate link under $1

>> No.9677667

>>9677657
Possible, depends on what happens. I don‘t think its so safe to say it will stay below a dollar til 2019.

>> No.9677682

>>9677381
Some weeks they have completed up to +25 tasks (March specially). So I don't see that as a valid calculation

>> No.9677705
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9677705

>>9677381
Good thread OP. Finally an adult thread for ChainLink

>> No.9677715

>>9677667
Only way it goes above a $1 before 2019 is if the overall crypto mcap doubles...it won't.

>> No.9677719

FUD, you have no real idea of what they are actually getting done.

>> No.9677723

>>9677657
Though I think mainnet will arrive in time for PSD2 regulation and open banking API laws

>> No.9677732

>>9677566
even that wouldn't do anything. the CEO of Docusign presenting with Sergey and retweeting a chainlink shill account did zero. If that doesn't pump it nothing will.

>> No.9677742

>>9677723
>PSD2 regulation and open banking API laws
its already here since January

>> No.9677772

>>9677742
Not enforced everywhere until September 2019

>> No.9677775

my linky stays super stinky $1000 eoy
7's don't lie

>> No.9677787

>>9677719
Actually I do as they have stated multiple times that all work is scheduled in pivotal and committed through github. If you watch those you can get a very good estimate which I did.

>>9677732
exactly

>> No.9677798

>>9677402

This. Suprised nobody has brought this up before.

>> No.9677806

HODL, only sell to pay for your big macs

>> No.9677815

>>9677775
end of year 2022 maybe
How I see it
eoy 18 - $0.74
eoy 19 - $5
eoy 20 - $20

>> No.9677825

why would sirgay spend his bahamas retirement account for marketing?
makes no sense
lmao at linktards

>> No.9677832

>>9677772
>13 January 2018: Directive 2007/64/EC is repealed and replaced by Directive (EU) 2015/2366
nope its already here for months.

>> No.9677843

>>9677798
its a very good point except for ethereum is running fine and with casper coming out this year should be better.

DLT needs smart contracts that can interact with the real world. We are actually seeing a lot of adoption from corda and ibm. Unfortuniately these are permissioned chains and do not need decentralized oracles.

Chainlink will be good for the smaller fish like ethorse and dapps. The big fish - banks etc will not technically need to go the full trustless dlt route with decentralized oracles.

>> No.9677864

>>9677815
>13 posts by this ID
you had time to accumulate, we are going to andromeda by september

>> No.9677883

>>9677832
Nope
https://www.saltedge.com/products/priora

>The moment when everything is going to change is January 2018, when PSD2 will be transposed into national law. Starting with that date banks will have till September 2019 to be PSD2 compliant. By 2020 we expect to enter a new era of Open Financial Marketplace, where each player can enter the field without having to cope with heavy and restrictive compliance regulations which the banking infrastructure currently maintains.

http://www.sepaforcorporates.com/payments-news-2/ready-banks-psd2-regulation-pwc/

What’s Next in the PSD2 Timelines?
21st November 2017 – SEPA Instant payments went live across the euro-zone
13th January, 2018 – all EU member states must implement PSD2 into their national law/regulation – PSD2 Go Live
PwC describe this as the date “when banks’ monopoly over customer account information and payment services will cease“
>September 2019 – PSD2 security measures indicated in the RTS (Regulatory Technical Standards) will go live – this part of PSD2 requires the:
Implementation of Secure Customer Authentication (SCA)
Provide third party providers Access To their customers Accounts (XS2A)

>> No.9677889

$1000 EOY

>> No.9677893

>>9677815
EOY 18 - $1,000
EOY 19 - $7,000
EOY 20 - $100,000

>> No.9677895

>>9677883
why didn't you put this shit in your initial reply you doofus?
thanks for wasting my time prior to this post.

>> No.9677969

>>9677895
Why didn't you DYOR, and do it accurately?
kys

>> No.9677992

>>9677969
shut up you stupid time wasting nigger, either drop your sources instant or fuck off from the discussion.
homo.

>> No.9678022

>>9677992
Damn, you are upset.
You were wrong. The info was just a search away. I'd have left the thread after gettibg BTFO like you did, but no you're still here. I admire your dedication.

>> No.9678023

So the best argument to my claim is maybe they will hire more developers to speed up the project....kek. See you guys late 2019

>> No.9678074

>>9677402
Nice concern trolling faggot.

1k eoy. Incase anyone didnt know.

>> No.9678077

>>9678022
no you wasted my time you faggot

>"hurr durr I think mainnet will arrive in time for PSD2 regulation and open banking API laws"
>gets BTFO because the regulation already ARRIVED in JANUARY
>"HURR DURR I meant when businesses will use it"

stupid time wasting goalpost moving nigger subhuman, go die from aids you son of a rodent.

>> No.9678097

>>9677381
Based on my calculations, op is a faggot

>> No.9678100

>>9678077
>you
Not me.
Also, if you're not talking about practical usage, why are you even here?

>> No.9678109

>>9677404
Implying that you dont go on reddit either you mong.

>> No.9678134
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9678134

You can't stop it it's already begun

>> No.9678147

>>9677381
this is far too optimistic. unless the team suddenly hires a bunch of developers at once, mainnet won't be out until at least 2020

>> No.9678175

>>9678147
>more developers = faster development
Found the 30 year old boomer

>> No.9678214

>>9678147
>2020
nice shill
at least 2022 and then mainstream adoption in 2025

>> No.9678338

This is the new fud tactic
I'm not fucking selling

>> No.9678440

Hi, I'm from r/linktrader
Is all this true?
Can i still dump my Link for Oracalize?

>> No.9678530

>>9677582

Did we give it a name?

>> No.9678627

>>9677481
>implying they haven't been working on the last 10% for the last 2 years

>> No.9678788

>>9678440
no, buy mobius please sirs is good far coin of chanslink and CEO lard please thank you sirs

>> No.9678873

Release it NOW Sergay or we riot.

>> No.9678889

>>9677381
Link is love. Link is life!

>> No.9678943

>>9678889
the real bull run was the frens we made!

>> No.9678944

>>9677640
>The team admitted to private repo but stated it had nothing to do specifically with the node itself; therefore, is private...basically meaning this is work for a client.
the fact they're doing direct client work is bullish for me.

>> No.9678961
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9678961

>>9677604

>> No.9678971

>>9678530
No, CIA nigger mods archived it

>> No.9679096

>>9678971
2 more chainlink psyop threads were just deleted, were on to something

>> No.9679125

>>9679096
just saw that, very interesting as someone with no money in link, why delete these threads

>> No.9679140

>>9678627
Ok then, show me the source. Right now they're working on implementing a centralized oracle. There is no Code doing the actual interesting stuff like API propagation, Node Reputation, Contract Assignment, etc...
Yes, how this will be accomplished is mostly covered in the whitepaper and writing it is nothing more than busywork. And yes, they could be working on it in a private Repo. But as long as there is no semi-fully running network, how would you know where the hard to track/fix bugs like race conditions are?
And as Rory stated: They only have one shot. If a Contractor looses millions of dollars due to faulty software, it is dead to everyone

>> No.9679157

>>9677381
>110 tasks, taking 22 weeks to complete
>22 weeks creates 66 tasks, taking 13 weeks to complete
>13 weeks creates 39 tasks, taking 8 weeks to complete
>8 weeks creates 24 tasks, taking 5 weeks to complete
>ad infinum

Fugggg guys maybe there won't be a singularity

>> No.9679172

>>9677381
I'm ok with that as long as the work is solid and the result is reliable, secure and fast

>> No.9679212

>>9679172
This.

Unironically ropsten needs to be perfect before release. That will add months - Maybe no ropsten before q3 or 4 2018. After that, mainnet could be as quick as 3 months, or as long as 12. The more problems fixed before ropsten is online, the better it'll look for the corporate clients waiting to use chainlink.

Also mainnet 2019+ means req won't be able to be released before then, toppest of keks

>> No.9679278
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9679278

>>9679125
I was banned last night when replying to one of them discussing how weird it was, pic related

>> No.9679281
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9679281

>>9677381
>>9677434
>>9677458
>>9677481
>>9677637
>>9677705

>> No.9679326

>>9677404
Thats not even reddit spacing
Tryhard fuck

>> No.9679362
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9679362

>>9677381
just sagin this thread, remember you don't have to do the whole "sage goes in all fields" bullshit, once in "Options" is enough

>> No.9679376
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9679376

This is what Chainlink are working on now.

Horologium

>> No.9679399

>>9677381
>bad news guys
>LINK will probably be cheap for months to come
Pick one, fag

>> No.9679414 [DELETED] 
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9679414

>>9679399
This.

>> No.9679433

Im glad we all agree mid to eoy 2019 for main net

>> No.9679455

NOT ALL ICEBOX TASKS ARE REQUIRED FOR A MAIN NET V1. SOME ARE JUST FEATURES WHICH ARE CONVENIENT OR GOOD TO HAVE.

>> No.9679495

>>9677815
Good predictions

t. 250k link holder

>> No.9679552

>>9679455
You must have missed the part where the team mentions they only have one shot to get this right etc. Also, say 10% of the tasks are not needed for main net...you are still looking at 1st quarter 2019 at best.

>> No.9679797

>>9677815
Nice FUD faggot

>> No.9679828

i dont mind waiting so long as it actually moons. if it hits $100 at any time in the next 2 years i'll be set up for life.

>> No.9679939

>>9677657
This isn't a bad thing. ETH was intial stagnant before it exploded as well. Basically, the world has to be ready for it. The world ain't ready for LINK yet.

>> No.9679955

>>9679797
not fud at all. I can't say for sure eoy 19 and 20 but eoy 18 will not be above $1. This is due to not being on main net and the team having absolutely no marketing. Sergey's last blog post was 6 months ago. Heck maybe link holders are lucky and he provides an update at end of year with a simple timeline for main net release in 19.

>> No.9680023
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9680023

GOD DAMMIT WHEN DO WE MOON? I WANT TO STOP WAGEKEKING, I WANT THOTS, I WANT FREEDOM.

$10000 LINK WHEN???

>> No.9680809
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9680809

>>9680023
TELL ME RIGHT FUCKING NOW YOU FUCKING BASTARDS

>> No.9681022

>>9680809
only way link moons is if node operators start earning a good amount of link which means adoption. Since main net not until 2019 it would depend on how fast if at all there is adoption...earliest 6/19 latest never.

A lot of stuff working against the chainlink team lately including not getting invited back to sibos this year.

>> No.9681218

>>9681022
network effect would take until 2025-2027
$100 by then is reasonable, if BTC is over $100k

in short, linkies are deluded

>> No.9681381

>>9681218
Oh boo boo. Once mainnet launches this shit will get to $20 just on speculation which means you only need a pathetically 50k linkies to be a millionaire. I agree that people's expectations are too high for link price but it's such an obvious moon mission you can safely back up the truck with as much money as you can afford and you're basically retired in 2-3 years tops unless you're a poorfag

>> No.9681418

>>9681381
there are 1 billion tokens and btc is in a bear market

cite an example of a similarly sized token supply mooning to such an extent

>> No.9681427

>>9681381
not to burst your bubble but if link is such a guarantee it makes you wonder why the only testing that has been done on ropsten has been eth price in usd from thomas' medium post. Literally no other testing and Ropsten has been out for a month.

The only Ropsten link transactions are neets taking their 100 links from the faucet. Link ropsten testing is DOA

>> No.9681429

>>9677381
Well unless they have actually worked on something in private repo and just drop it out of nowhere.

>> No.9681442

>>9680023
ahahahhh impatient idiot sell everything now and buy high again

>> No.9681453

>>9681418
trx

>> No.9681460

>>9679157
I mean yeah you would have to maintain it after it's up and running lol

>> No.9681461

Not sure why I'm even holding Link tbqh

Haven't kept up with the project lately cause of life stuff, but I bought a fat stack of LINK during presale last September. We rose from 9 cents to 50 cents in the span of a month, and then hovered around 40 cents for a good amount of time. BTC was 4500ish or thereabouts

it's been 8 fucking months and the price is exactly the same. Periodically I check /biz/ and see the obligatory, "Tonight!" threads, or just general charting threads. Why? What the fuck are you celebrating. With the exception of the temporary bubble, this shit has been trading in the same channel for nearly a year.

And what the fuck do we have? One or two random medium updates. No marketing director as promised. All of the Assblaster posts have been proven LARPs. None of the secret developments all of these Sherlock holmes autists post about have come to fruition. Not one.

Woo we're on ropsten now. You just know there will be bugs and all sorts of complications. And what about adoption? No word from SWIFT. No word from anybody. *maybe* JNT will LOOK at it. Fucking docusign? Really? Yet some of you idiots still cling to the delusion that mainnet will go live and all of these banks will be diving right in. Bull fucking shit.

and it's not even as if LINK is the chosen one anymore. Oracles are popping up left and right. This team is severely outclassed.

How fucking long are we supposed to hold for? Most of us are in our 20s. You get what, maybe 15 years more of prime living? And we've already pissed damn near 10% of that away, waiting for absolutely nothing ffs

>> No.9681488

>>9681418
>Worthless shitcoins haven't done it
>Therefore genuinely solid projects can't either

>> No.9681520

>>9681461
Solid pasta, I gotta save this one

>> No.9681534

>>9677381
Please kill yourself.

>> No.9681651

>>9681488
it's funny because no one wants to acknowledge that you are banking on a bunch of unconfirmed bullshit and BTC pushing 50k-100k

you might see $5 link a year after mainnet.

>> No.9681685

>>9681218
>Network effect

No nigger. Individuals aren't the consumers. Corporations are.

>> No.9681793
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9681793

>>9680023
... it's not happening
And i sincerely mean that, no meme fud

You got larped, there is no singularity. Mainnet might pump the coin 4-5 cents with how the market is.

Screen cap this, and rub it in my face if i'm wrong. I'll be here anon.... ill be here

>> No.9681815
File: 288 KB, 1300x2000, Brainlet.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9681815

>>9681218
this
>>9681381
and stfu
I've heard that about 20 different 'solid' projects

Once mainnet durrrhhhh
Alpha net is coming , it'll pump to $5 then

>Moment of truth
>it pumps 1 cent followed by a dump

EVERY TIME, now fuck off and stop spreading delusion

>> No.9681822

>>9681418
XRP. Chainlink's closest competitor

>> No.9681825

Its not about accumulation at this point. Something is triggered in their brain that makes them want to FUD. Its a fetish. While they type out the most ridiculous, low-tier FUD with one hand, the other hand is slowly pulling at their small penis. They will spend hours doing this, continually bringing themselves to the edge numerous times. They are the textbook definition of basement dwelling NEETs, so they could do this for days on end, fueled only by Monster, and nobody will question where they are or what they are doing, because nobody loves them or cares about them.

They have gotten to the point that the FUD isn't even as good as it once was. They don't take the time to think hard about it anymore, because they just want to hurry up and post anything to make their little dicks hard.

>> No.9682383

>>9681822
what's it like to be this stupid, please tell me in detail

>> No.9682411

FAT
A
T

>> No.9682439

If it makes you feel any better guys the team added 5 tasks today and complete 2 so add at least another week to my estimation

>> No.9682444

>>9682439
They work faster than you think. Please kys

>> No.9682456

>>9682444
yeah they do...sometimes they finish a whole 8 tasks a week. I can't wait til june 19

>> No.9682469

>>9682456
what do you think will happen june 19

>> No.9682477

I counted around 117 tasks so add 40 for 157 tasks. Assume 7 tasks completed per week...that's 22.4 weeks (early December 2018).

>> No.9682522

>>9682477
is that good or bad compared to others?

>> No.9682546

>>9682383
You are the stupid one mate.
Xrp is really the closest thing to a competitor to chainlink.

>> No.9682563

>>9677381

Just because a task is in the icebox doesn't mean it's getting done brainlet.

I'm glad you sold your bags because you don't deserve this moon mission.

Enjoy FOMOing back in, mainnet is in the fall, I know this because we're working with the team on testing out Ropsten implementation and everything is going incredibly well

>> No.9682574

>>9682522
Honestly I never counted how many tasks they completed each week. I need an average to guesstimate better. 2019 mid year seems pretty conservative.

>> No.9682582

>>9682469
june 2019 main net

>> No.9682595
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9682595

when will something happen

>> No.9682597

>>9682563
lol my stink bag is larger than yours...i just don't have unreal expectations like 90% of biz. 2019 is main net not 2018 that is guaranteed.

Only hope i have is if we see some testing that would indicate some good real world use...problem is I have been paying attention to the oracle contract and no one is testing...not a good look

>> No.9682612

>>9682574
Go to pivotal and click done...now count how many were completed each week..it is that easy. Trust me I have done the research that is why I can say without a doubt 2019 and prob mid 2019 at that

>> No.9682647
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9682647

>>9682597
>Hurf durf, Im smart, please believe my stupid supposition that the team's rate of completing tasks couldn't possibly be variable. Nah, it is always constant.

>I will mention I hold LINK so I have more credibility

>> No.9682791

>>9677381
>Now, it only gets worse, the team on average adds 3 new tasks a week to the icebox.

How the fuck do you know when they will have finished writing the requirements? That could be next week for all you know.
How do you know the latter tasks wont be smaller mop up operations after the main codebase is written?

They could also hire another developer if they found the right person.

What you meant to say was best case 6 months worst case 12

>> No.9682805

>>9677381
are you surprised that a SOFTWARE team lead by a NON-CODER is going to fail at fixing one of the biggest CS problem in crypto?

>> No.9682889

>>9682791
It's called averages and giving 20% on either side for margin of error.

This is the first legit estimation in my opinion....just that link holders don't want to hear it

>> No.9682924

>>9682805
Sergey can code though

>> No.9682943

>>9682889
True but I have seen projects ramp up when the pressure is on.
Even if its accurate a year off doesnt sound too bad to me.
Ill just wagecuck for the year and pile more money into BTC.

>> No.9683042

>>9682943
That sounds good. I am not saying link isn't a good project, actually the opposite. I think its one of the most important projects in crypto. I am also just realistic.

>> No.9683051

>>9682805
Its not a CS problem.
Chainlink is Sergeys thoughts channelled through the fingers of Steve Ellis.

>> No.9683109
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9683109

another year to accumulate more doesn't sound so bad.

>> No.9683152

This is good FUD, my mind won't allow me to believe it yet though. For me, mainnet will still launch this fall until proven 100% otherwise.

>> No.9683206

>>9677381
jesus what a brainlet