/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>9460522
Return to "normal"

First sell off.

>>9460522
Due to market manipulation people refused to enter despair stage. But it's all artificially sustained. Some bubbles may last years. Where are we exactly? Jumping between capitulation and fear and praying despair will never come.

Compare it to google trends and you'll see.

Return to normal/Fear

Any idiot who claims first sell off or media attention is holding bags from 15k

kids plz

this is a bull trap

you haven't seen anything yet

denial

General public moved on, /biz is in denial, still waiting for that bull run so they can break even.

we're at the point where cryptos make all fiat worthless in less than 5 years.

If your not HODLing long term than your a fucking faggot.

We had 3 return to "normal" and now it's the 4th denial.

>>9460522
Somewhere between Fear and Capitulation.
Despair is when /biz/ gets so fed up of cryptos again that over half of the threads are about something non-crypto related.

>>9460522

where does COMPLETELY UTTERLY FUCKED go on that chart of yours?

>>9460522
1st bear trap

We are 20% through a bull trap dip. We've got another 80% more to dump.

>>9460522
Delusion

we are not on this map... relax, anything could happen...

>>9460732
This. Any retard who posts anything after First Sell off/Bear trap is ignoring the gray text on the graph.
Crypto is not mainstream and institutional investors are only recently publicizing their entry into the market; this is signalling to kickstart public enthusiasm and mania.

>>9460688
this this this and fuck this again

>>9461015
You know, I've been thinking about this, and what else is there that could crash another global financial crisis? China's slowdown? Eh. The startups in Silicon Valley, while full of hippies, usually deliver products people actually use as far as I know. The housing market? Not on a global scale anymore. Crypto is about the only thing that can and probably will cause the next crisis. The total mcap has been hovering around 400 billion, that's way too much for shitcoins with no actual, real use, which could be easily replaced for real money. 99.99% of coins and tokens do not hold any actual value in and of themselves. They are simply used to access a service, which you may as well do with USD/GBP/EUR/whatever

>>9460696

>TA in crypto

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

>>9461065
The last housing bubble and the dot com bubble both were in trillions.
Maybe the upcoming recession will be a combination of the potential causes that you listed.

Btw, Chinese economy and worldwide housing prices are very much related at this point. A Chinese economic downturn will decrease housing prices worldwide.

>>9461065
>global financial crisis
>crypto
>400 billion mcap
>less than 1/100th of global stock market value
>not connected in any real way to country's economies
found the fucking retard

>>9461162
>The last housing bubble and the dot com bubble both were in trillions.
Yeah, so it would make sense if we were in the first sell-off in that context. If we assume that we have not seen any actual increase in price in comparison to what's ahead, then I guess it's an okay conclusion

>Btw, Chinese economy and worldwide housing prices are very much related at this point. A Chinese economic downturn will decrease housing prices worldwide.
Interesting! Is there anywhere I can read about this?

>>9461172
Calm down fucko, if we are in the 1st sell off, then we haven't mooned yet

>not connected in any real way to country's economies

Just give it time, VeChain is already doing some shit with the Chinese government

>>9461065
COINMARKETCAP.COM IS NOT LIKE AN OFFICIAL STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET CAP. COINMARKETCAP.COM HAS COINS LISTED AT 20-100M MC WHICH HAD MAYBE 50K USD VOLUME.

REAL MARKET CAP IS AROUND THE MC OF TOP100 COINS.

>rajeet makes 1 000 000 000tokens
>paneer buys 1 token for 1usd
>mc +1B usd

>>9461150
Stay poor.

>>9461215
Sigh, okay, give us your list

>>9460522
we are here

>>9460522
Take off

>>9460522
Fear.

>>9461015
Exactly, everyone is ignoring the gray text, and even the black text below the chart..

The top posts the past few days on /r/bitcoin is that Coinbase and LocalBitcoins are performing KYC, with Coinbase blocking all coin withdrawals without ID, and LBC asking for ID for as low as 1 BTC amounts.

Whereas in March last year, I could move 20-40 btc amounts, which I bought on Localbitcoins, into Shapeshift, in and out of Bittrex, Polo, even Cryptopia.

That TOTALLY felt like "Stealth Phase", as it's now getting tons of regulation, unlike last year's "stealth" where you could move large amounts unnoticed.

The climb to 20k was "Take off", because it happened BEFORE the "Institutional Investors" phase. Which is Goldman Sachs and the NYSE now announcing they are going into the crypto exchange business, and Coinbase and Ledger announcing "custodian" services for institutional investors, with Coinbase asking for $10M minimum amounts or something similarly ridiculous.

And obviously the dump to 6k was the "First sell off", which we are still stuck in right now.

This is ALL based on the gray/black text, and NOT the chart's shape.

New Paradigm.

>>9461201
Chinese real estate is a shitshow. Real estate is somehow culturally become to be the only most favoured thing to put money into in China. That is what is allowing these "ghost towns" to appear as you have already heard of 20 years. The bubble has however not popped, because there has actually been rapid demand for apartments in bigger cities. China being the sweatshop of the world meant that a lot of people from rural places have migrated to cities for factory work.

https://np.reddit.com/r/news/comments/80xs1v/china_bans_george_orwells_animal_farm_as_xi/duzfoko/?context=3

But China is becoming more wealthier and companies are now moving to SEAsia, Africa, India, ... for the cheapest labor. Meanwhile Chinese citizens are still rapidly investing in housing and using something called "shadow banking" to even avoid government regulations. So... "ghost towns" are still popping up and now there is starting to be no demand for them, because rural to urban migration is almost reversing. Another way of circumnavigating government investment policies is to invest overseas housing. Chinese have been buying up a lot of houses in US, Canada, EU and Australia.

https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/4jjmsi/chinese_pour_110bn_into_us_real_estate_says_study/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-06/impact-of-chinese-buyers-on-australian-house-prices/9021938

If their housing bubble pops, then a lot of selling will occur to cover losses. No doubt, they will also sell a lot of their overseas properties at the same time, bringing the prices in other countries down as well.

I have normie friends that are still in crypto waitting for the "2018 bull run". We will be in despair only when all of these retards sell. We are right now on the end of return to normal, but the crash wont be that hard or fast. We will bottom at 4k in early 2019

fear

we might start a new circle in 2 years though

>>9461015
The chart doesnt say that its mainstream you fucking nigger. It says that the general public is aware of its existence and starts to spend money. BTC was literally shilled by Elen on public TV, with millions watching. People bought into the hype, that was THE PUBLIC. How delusional are you people?

We are at first sell off, the big institutional investors are just now getting in with custodian services finally being introduced.

Selling now is a hilariously bad decision.

>>9461439
For the foreign property you have to consider the chink drive to have their money out of china. It has become exponentially more difficult to escape the shitcoin that is the CNY, those with their money already out will be highly resistant to bringing it back in.

https://www.ft.com/content/5e692f82-7b45-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928

We saw this in effect with the unfreezing of the chink internet money exchanges last year, the general sentiment was they would all rush for the exit exchanging theirh worthless bit coins for valuable fiat, but indeed the opposite happened.

The chink is not the creative thinker, and real estate property is deeply embedded in him, it will not be easy to force him to sell his foreign assets. Lying and cheating are par for the course, he will do whatever else it takes to hang on to those bags.

>>9460688
>Despair is when /biz/ gets so fed up of cryptos again that over half of the threads are about something non-crypto related.

This is actually not a bad idea about how to measure if crypto is ever "done."

I think this point in time will come in a very long time when all major players are in crypto and stocks have become as boring and low returns as the stock market (~10% per year).

>>9461723
but der is a red candul anon
we NEED to test 4k
its the law

*I mean crypto will have become boring and low returns like the stock market.

>>9461657
You make a fundamental error here. You're talking about private investors. Noone cares about private investors, what we need is institutional money but this will only come if there are working projects and the market is more regulated and especially if all these fucking shit tokens which only use space but generate nothing but pnds are gone. As long as the market is like it is now, no bull run will start.

>>9460522
No matter how many times you ask or when these cunts will always tell you first sell off or return to the normal Unironically they all want bitcoin to be worth 500$

First institutional bear trap.
you should be happy to see bitcoin below 100k in your lifetime.

>>9461867
how does that even work with fees?

Between return to normal and fear. April was the bull trap.

>>9461833
You refered to the grey text on the chart, which states PUBLIC. What do you think the PUBLIC is? The public are normal people, common folk. Not governments you fucking retard.
>Noone cares about private investors
Yea, no one cares. There were no profit margins whatsoever.

>>9461944
But the money is not by the PUBLIC brainless faggot. The people who privately want to invest substantial sums in crypto are few and far between. You have to get the institutions in. I don't care what your magical grey text is saying, you just have to try to think straight. And I never spoke about governments but corporations. You know banks or logistic companies or whatnot.

>>9461150
>falling for the "TA is a bullshit" meme

>>9461150
the barts don't happen at random times....

>>9461392
Definitely fear

>>9461417
he got it
<3

>>9460522
first sell off. Chart is not to scale, expect BTC to moon twice or 3 times this year, none exceeding 40k.

>>9460522
Well OP, we're in one of three places.
First Sell off, between Fear and Capitulation, or already at Return to the mean.

One of those three. Some argue we hit Capitulation already, but some argue that we hadn't hit it until we hit some magic number like 3-4k or when we see a big capitulation red candle. Some say a bullrun can't start until there's been two massive selloffs.

It's possible we're at First Sell off in a macrosense, if you don't think the 2013-14 bubble didn't really count. I could see this as possible if blockchain tech really does become so important or if BTC really does capture the gold market for this next generation.

I personally feel we're in a slow capitulation. There's enough enthusiasm that I don't think we'll see a huge spike downward because most have faith in the projects. Everyone does or they wouldn't be lurking and posting here. People just want to hit despair because they want a reset so they know when to enter their money in from the sidelines.. and literally everyone selling is doing it to sit on the sidelines, wanting back in at a profit. Everyone is aware of the market psychology, and people aren't scared that BTC won't be at a new ATH before 2020, they're scared of the short-term swings that they could miss profit from. Very different psychology from dotcom bubble I think. If we dip further, psychology could change, but I still think it's a matter of everyone looking at the same playbook and mass market manipulation taking place meaning we may never play this chart out 100%. Because of this, we may be at "Return to the mean" already without knowing it because of how volatile things move that hides the mean's slope, which I think is due it's incline steeper than other markets.

>>9460522
This image is a MEME. Why does everybody fall for it? Same with the gartner hype cycle. You fall for meme lines created by ((them)).

>>9460696
I can’t believe this only has one reply... 1000% this. Yes, if we plummeted to the bottom right now, we’d be at $2-3k. What people don’t understand is that we’re going to go down slowly over time until we hit that $5k mark and move sideways for a few months before slowly moving up again. You are correct, sir

>>9462303
>It's possible we're at First Sell off in a macrosense, if you don't think the 2013-14 bubble didn't really count.

I agree with everything you said up until this line. I actually believe we are in the capitulation phase of the first sell off because according to OP's image-- the first sell off doesn't begin until the start of the institutional phase, which it was it really feels like we're in. There's no way in hell 2013-2014 was the first sell off because you didn't have the chatter from institutional investors that you have today-- just look at the news in the last 6 months: IBM, AMEX, Ubisoft, Coinbase Prime, and about 50 other examples. All being announced at the tail end of last year and now.

>>9460522
We're somewhere after return to mean. We're not on that chart at the moment.

>>9462303
People aren't lurking here because they have
>faith in the projects.
Most of the people here have just thrown all their coin into random pajeet scam advertisement shills without even knowing what they have thrown their money away into. People are lurking here because they are sad foreveralones with nothing else going on and because they have gambling addictions

Stop deluding yourself, Anon.

>>9460536
>>9460584
>>9460586
>>9460588
>>9460644
>>9460696
>>9460747
>>9461431
>>9461553
>>9461926
(You)