/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>944885
No. Goods still have to be moved across the country, and that demand will only go up as the population increases. They will never be able to fully automate trucks, so a driver will always be required to be behind the wheel.

Due to automated highway driving, we may begin to see the rise of "Pilot Truckers" like the maritime profession, whose job is to guide trucks over difficult terrain like the Rocky Mountains.

It may be. If people stop buying things. How probable is that?

Yes, maybe 5 years ago you could consider it.
Now it's not worth it because it WILL be a dead industry soon and you will lose all of the opportunity cost involved.

Invest in a STEM education, or you're going to have to either get lucky or you will be a poor sucker.

Automation is a meme

Everything was supposed to be automized 30 years ago

>>944887
>They will never be able to fully automate trucks, so a driver will always be required to be behind the wheel.

This will be laughable to read in 10-15 years.

Did you know our train system still isn't automated even though we've had the technology to do it for nearly twenty years?

We'll all be long dead before the government finds the stones to let automated cars happen

>>944890

This.

this whole automation thing is like when they used to show videos in the 1950's that said by the year 2000 we would have colonies on the moon.

Get your HAZMAT endorsement on your CDL. It makes the bitches wet

>>944893
But... It's already happening O__o

>>944892

Jumbo jets have been automated since the 1990's.

but you still need pilots.

A jumbo jet can literally take off, fly, and land all by itself. and account for turbulence and other problems.

yet... a human must still be present.

Why do you think that is?

>>944892
They're never going to be fully autonomous. Trucks have to travel long distances, often in poor weather conditions, or across hazardous terrain like mountain passes. Only the largest warehouses and distribution centers will be able to afford the equipment to enable autonomous docking. No one will want unmanned vehicles carrying hazardous or extremely valuable cargoes which can be liability nightmares.

There may be less truckers in the future, and they may not look like truckers of today, but there will still be truckers.

>>944897
Happened with the trains, too. Biggest challenge with these things is the existing infrastructure and the fact that it'll take a century for them to completely supplant manual driving, until which point they'll have to share the roads with humans.

These things are going to go out, a handful of them will fail or get into accidents that are the fault of the human drivers, the media will work up a scare campaign blaming the evil robots, and then the government will rework the regulations so that they aren't allowed on the road in any significant number.

>>944898
It's mostly because of insurance companies and regulations. The technology works fine.
Pilots are well aware their jobs are going to become very saturated once the automation is allowed more, that's partially why their wages are getting lower.

Yes the government is slow with regulations, once the big companies start to notice how much profit they are missing from excluding automation, they will surely speed up the process.

To all the people saying automation is a meme, almost every store around me has transitioned to automated registers. That's just the first step of whats to come.

Automation technology for most of the stuff discussed is already there, in 10 years you can expect it to be significantly more polished and viable.

>>944897

How many of these are even on the road right now?

There won't even be a consumer model until the year 2020, and the cars right now cost upwards of $150,000 each.

You're looking at another fifteen years from now before these things even begin to become consumer friendly.

The truck versions will cost so much on release that you could pay a driver to drive a standard truck for five years before you even break even on the cost of the equipment.

TLDR: Driverless automation will not be actualized for another twenty years.

>>944885

No it's the opposite actually every year there are less truckers and higher demand for them. This is the one job that can never be outsourced.

>>944897

Yeah it will happen but they will keep a person in the cab monitoring it.

>>944900
They will most definitely be fully autonomous in the future, the question is when. You mention the cost of "autonomous docking", I can guarantee you humans will be more costly no matter what way you cut it in the long term.

Concerning the terrain and weather, yes it's the biggest challenge with autonomous vehicles. Imagine the scenario where you can have fleets of trucks maneuvering the safest of paths, or hibernating when things get too dangerous. These trucks will be operating 24/7 and nearly the entire time they will be cruising along just fine. Sensors can do a much better job than humans at detecting the conditions and safety involved, especially with the factors of safety engineered into the software.

Basically the cost savings and 24/7 runtime of such trucks will more than cover any potential slowdowns that stem from being overly safe.

Humans will probably still be trucking in the few niches, like oil or chemicals maybe. You have to consider that every current trucker will try and find such jobs, the market will inevitably be far more saturated than you see today.

>>944907

When a machine at a grocery store malfunctions no one dies.

Cars and planes will need humans behind the wheel for likely another 30 years.

When the shit hits the fan, and it will. A human needs to be there.

>>944925

So when humans fuck up it's okay? But when software fucks up it's the end of the world?

It's been proven plenty of times that the current automated cars are far more safe on average compared to human drivers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X-5fKzmy38

>>944924
>oil and chemicals
>niche
Every gas station in the country is supplied by a semi truck that has to come all the way from a refinery. That's not even close to niche. There are probably millions of them. And that's not mentioning chemicals, valuable metals, nuclear material, etc.

>>944924
The cost of installing the infrastructure to support automated cargo loading/unloading/docking will be massive, in the trillions of dollars worldwide. They don't even do this for container ships, where it would be much cheaper because there is several orders of magnitude less ports than there are truck loading docks.

There will be no significant cost savings for running the trucks 24/7. Truckers currently drive non-stop aside from the 8 hours of sleep, but most of them don't even sleep as long as that. Running the trucks 24/7 will increase the wear and tear on the engines, requiring more frequent maintenance and overhaul cycles, which can definitely not be automated.

Sensors are only as good as the humans who programmed them, and they will never be able to account for the million edge cases that are currently handled by a human's intuition.

In 50 years, we will have semi-autonomous trucks which will roll around the interstates in convoys at 85mph, but each one of them will still have a person behind the wheel (although they may be asleep)

>>944937
I'm basing it off mostly my own experiences when driving.

Nearly all trucks I see carry basic cargo, just a select few are carrying the dangerous stuff.

Here is some extra research I did.

>"hazardous materials trucks represent about 7 percent of the overall truck traffic on U.S. highways,"
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Roads-are-full-of-trucks-hauling-hazardous-loads-2574892.php

So yes, I would definitely consider the dangerous trucking to be a niche in comparison to the industry as a whole.

>>944938
I wasn't necessarily referring to the cargo logistics and handling, more so just the drivers themselves.

>There will be no significant cost savings for running the trucks 24/7. Truckers currently drive non-stop aside from the 8 hours of sleep.
Yes, there will be. AI doesn't need vacation, it doesn't need to piss, it doesn't need to talk to friends on the phone, or eat, or worry about their family. You get the idea.
You should also know that even if truckers only sleep 7 hours, that is still a massive margin in profit that is directly increased. 30% Increase at MINIMUM from just this aspect. It's massive.

>Sensors are only as good as the humans who programmed them, and they will never be able to account for the million edge cases that are currently handled by a human's intuition.
You must not know much about engineering because this is very misleading. Every sensor in existence is currently used because it does better than humans in some regard.
Human intuition is very powerful, I agree. Trucking 99% of the time does not involve such tuition and for this reason it because more viable even if the AI will fuck up on occasion.

You should also keep in mind that the autonomous truck fleets will certainly have remote-in capabilities, for humans stationed somewhere to do manual commands if need be.

Autonomous does not imply not monitored, people need to get rid of this idea.

Get a gun, go work in armed security

>>944925

If OP goes in to trucking now in 30 years he will be 45 with no skills

What a great time to lose your career

>>944935
Yes, because the media love a story. Or do you not get that part?

Another thing that hasnt been touched on is that automated driving needs to keep in line with the nuance of driving in and out of an ever changing legal landscape. Traffic laws vary and our constantly changing from town to town. Also if you think for a second that a municipality strapped for cash wont change a law just to get revenue from a liable machine then you must not be in the US.

>>945165
And big corporations love money. Do you not get that part?

They won't make it so these things move entirely on their own with no people inside. It can be "automated" in the sense that on easily traversed highway the truck could drive itself, but someone will still be there behind the wheel to make sure nothing goes wrong. Truckers will have jobs, they just might get a change in job description.

Just imagine how easy it would be to disrupt a fully automated system that so many people are imagining with OTR trucking. A bunch of deadbeats get a couple cars and put them in the middle of the road so the truck stops itself. No one is around so they jump the thing and grab anything they want from inside. It'd be too easy and companies would see that coming.

Just do what u love op ( deep down everyone knows what it is ) have the courage to trust ur self and take initiative, sure there are factors that are out of our control like time and place and who we know but u just gotta play the hand ur dealt and make the most of what u have and hope everything falls into place. If u work and study hard and be honest and righteous you'll get somewhere in life op I promise.
My uncle started out driving trucks back in the 70s and made a lot of connections and got a little bit of money and he later owned his own car and engine company and he was a millionaire in his 30s and retired in his 50s with a net worth of like 20 million usd so just do what u love and work hard keep working op and ull get somewhere, I promise

>buy automated truck
>rent it out to companies who want to use it to transport good
>buy 2nd automated truck
>rinse and repeat

I think automation could actually provide a boom.

also this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgMekYoaUlk

>>945185
Nope

>>945213
Yeah, I think companies like it because they'll be able to ship more at a time with potentially less accidents.

There's already a shortage of drivers. They might end up raising their pay to keep people from leaving. If the trend just continues and they keep automating more then truckers will do better if anything.

>>945196
>A bunch of deadbeats get a couple cars and put them in the middle of the road so the truck stops itself.

and these deadbeats can't take on a 5'8 300 lb truck driver?

you think amazon or dominos' drones are gonna get shot down? why don't people shoot pizza delivery boys? killing a delivery guy is probably safer than intercepting a drone.

where's the difference? your arguments are absolute garbage!

>>945180
that is probably the only sane statement in this thread.

>>944916
or they could close the interstate to human traffic.

>>944906
>Biggest challenge with these things is the existing infrastructure
wrong

the biggest challenge is the law.

>>944898
>>944887
>>944925
A human does not need to be there. Currently a human needs to be responsible. There is a difference.

Example: there are no elevator operators anymore. what's the difference between an elevator and a car? complexity. But there's still someone responsible if someone dies in an elevator. A legal framework needs to be established that defines the environment in which autonomous cars can operate, what inspection cycles they need to undergo, etc, just like elevators.

>>944911
the hardware cost is laughable. the problem is that the features are luxury features and not requirements for economic cars. there are $15k cars out there with lanekeeping features today.

>>945231
You're not paying attention to the central point and that's that the automated truck wouldn't think for itself like a human would. A human being doesn't need to fight anyone because they aren't going to get in a fight like that in the first place.

People will find a way to rob these things if no one is monitoring them. You would have to have someone watching all the cameras and making sure nothing is going wrong on the outside all the time (which is possible). If these trucks ended up in the middle of nowhere by themselves with even one engine malfunction, you would have to send someone out there not to just go get it but also possibly get it working again themselves. Time and money lost.

There will be someone behind the wheel. That was my point.

>>945213
>Buy automatic truck to rent
>implying where you bought it from itsn going to make you rent

>>945240
Not to mention that pizza guys and the pizza they're delivering are probably worth a lot less than you can fit in a full-sized tractor trailer vehicle travelling from coast to coast.

RC propeller drones are hardly comparable to 80,000lb vehicles on the road.

>>945240
>You're not paying attention to the central point and that's that the automated truck wouldn't think for itself like a human would.
The cost savings and efficiency increase would more than hedge such scenarios.

>People will find a way to rob these things if no one is monitoring them.
They will be heavily monitored, autonomous or not. Control centers will exist that monitor such trucks in volume. They will be able to remote-into trucks and control manually if needed. You don't need anyone physically there once the tech proves itself.
Sensors triggered if x force is applies and police automatically dialed with GPS coordinates and video feed, etc.

Most importantly, upgrading security is far easier technically than the AI achieved.
You can certainly add massive locks to trucks, and other such techniques that would make it no easy feat. This part is plain trivial compared to the feat of autonomous driving.

>>945249
>RC propeller drones are hardly comparable to 80,000lb vehicles on the road.

Of course they can. They can kill people. They can transport valuable goods. They are technologically comparable. for argument's sake assume the drones are fully automated.


>>945240
>A human being doesn't need to fight anyone because they aren't going to get in a fight like that in the first place.


1) hooligans make blockade
2) truck encounters blockade

what does the truck driver do?

what does the machine do?

now answer these questions while considering that IRL is not the mad max universe.

>If these trucks ended up in the middle of nowhere by themselves with even one engine malfunction, you would have to send someone out there not to just go get it but also possibly get it working again themselves. Time and money lost.

are you 12?
Companies exist that specialize in roadside assistance, because 99% of all issues that cause the vehicle malfunction are not user serviceable. There is an infrastructure already in place to deal with the problem you think makes everything unfeasible.

You nitpick at non issues.

>>945240
I think truckers in the future may actually fill the driver/mechanic role while the tedious part of the job is automated to a large extent. Then give the trucker a rifle/shotgun for security and you're good to go.

>>945538
Now this, I agree with.

Or perhaps they are the operators in and around cities/awkward spots, then turn on semi autopilot for all the motorway driving. This lets them sleep, which lets them basically drive 24/7 in one week shifts

>>944907
"Automated" registers are operated by the customer & policed by at least one cashier.

>>944924
>I can guarantee you humans will be more costly no matter what way you cut it in the long term.
If you give up the human driver you replace him with a human maintainer, mechanics don't know shit about computer systems. Depending on how the system works it could even be divided up among multiple maintainers. Then you have to account for the level of maintenance, some systems can't be repaired on site. Next we've got the logistics. Gotta get that broke as automated truck moved from point A to point B, gotta get the part required for repairs no matter how often it breaks or how expensive it is. Hopefully you don't lose business to repairs.

You take commercial trucking & put it on the level of aircraft maintenance to replace a meth addict on a salary equivalent to one technician.

>>944935
If I work out an equation & get it wrong once I can fix it after I find a flaw. A computer will continue to make the same mistake you told it to make every time. So yes, it's a big deal when computers fuck up.

>>944967
>You must not know much about engineering because this is very misleading. Every sensor in existence is currently used because it does better than humans in some regard.
I loved replacing RADALTs every other week because the plane flew at a 10 degree angle, saw a mountain top, and thought it was going to crash.

>you think amazon or dominos' drones are gonna get shot down?
Drones are already being shut/shot down. They have also basically been banned from commercial use by the FAA for numerous reasons.

>>945231
Thanks for the insights Mr. Expert!

>>944887
>No. Goods still have to be moved across the country, and that demand will only go up as the population increases. They will never be able to fully automate wagons, so a horse will always be required to be in front of the wagon.

read it again now and see how retarded you are

we are moving to LTL and 'gig' driving (like amazon prime now pilot program in seattle area)

long haul "breaker one nine" etc trucking might go the way of robots but they will need people in vehicles hauling shit for a good long time

>>944907
>It's mostly because of insurance companies and regulations. The technology works fine.

Just had a full blown train running without control due to a failing dead man switch just a couple of weeks ago in my neighborhood.

>>947004
Gee, good thing the human was there to...oh wait

>>947011
Driver went unconcious

>>947012
You are trying to make a point for
a) Driverless trains
or
b) A ban on all trains

aren't you?

>>944885
You should be fine for the time being, automation is a bit of a meme right now, it will come eventually but not in the next ten years or so.

And if you plan on staying behind the wheel for more than 15 years, there is something wrong with your career plan anyways.

>>944885
>>944885

Hey OP! How does trucking industry work?

I'm planning to move to US, with around 300k to invest and make some money. One thing that I was really thinking about is logistics.

Do you have your own truck, or is it owned by the company? How is your wage calculated?

Thank you for your time.

Expand beyond trucking. Look at logistics and coordination.


Is trucking doomed? Maybe in 15-20 years. But even as the trucks automate there is still a need for a "captain of the ship".

Modern trucking is a combination of brokerage, route planning, problem solving, security, and so on and so forth.


A cdl is a good think to have, it opens doors

>>947046
Not op.

You need a Commercial Drivers Licence, and DOT physical.


Then you sign on with a company.

If you do not own your truck, you are paid per mile driven.

If you own your truck, and work for a company, you pay for your own gas ( depending on company) and they pay you more per mile , or , you are paid a flat fee per load delivered on time.


If you have your own truck and go solo, you work with a broker or online service and bid on loads. From that bid , the broker takes a fee, the rest is yours paid on pick up or on drop off, or split before and after.

>>944885
automation may stop you when trucks can be driven by machines safely, you will have grandkids or be long gone by then

>>944892
10-15 isn't enough time, to make some good cash trucking???

>>945006
>OP will start truck driving at 15
>OP will drive trucks for 30 yrs and manage to fuck of 30 50k yearly salaries

Dandy

>>945254
how hard will it be for someone to figure out how to hack these things?

how much money will it cost for someone to bribe an employee and get past any and all security measures?

>>944885
The industry is slowing down, but by no means dying. Frieght is a little cheap but still good, and irrelevant if you're a company driver.
I only started driving a year ago, with zero experience, and I've netted a little over $50k.

>>947533
>manage to fuck of 30 50k yearly salaries
You must not know very many truckers. They're not a demographic that excels at money management.

>>944890
>>944895
>Progress is a meme
> -NEETs on /biz/

>>947011
>We should ban all technology because it sometimes fails

This board makes me more depressed by the day. How can people be this stupid?

>>944885
Legitimate question OP, a lot of people in here are freaking out about the automation thing one way or the other. I actually work for a University doing a lot of research on the industry. Here's what you should know.

Automation is going to happen to the trucking industry eventually, but not as quickly as many people think. For one thing, it will be at least 10 years before the technology is considered safe, and even longer for adoption to become widespread. Most trucking operations are small time and won't have a lot of money to invest in it right away.

If automation does become widespread it doesn't necessarily mean drivers will be out of a job. It's possible that drivers will be in the trucks but not actively driving. This is partially for a human to intervene in emergency situation, and also because the precision driving involved in major cities will likely have to be handled by humans.

However, if drivers are only expected to be actively driving 10% of the time, pay rates for the profession will likely decrease, so consider that if you want this to be a long term career.

In addition, consider all the downsides with the job. I know you said you have no relationships right now, but being a long haul trucker will make it difficult to ever develop any. You will likely have an unhealthy lifestyle in terms of diet and exercise. There are a number of health problems associated with truckers specifically such as back problems, diabetes, heart problems, and lung conditions from being exposed to industrial fumes on a regular basis. If your rig has a modern cab though you can have some nice amenities for yourself.

It can also be dangerous to be a trucker. Long haul truckers have been mugged, assaulted, and had their rigs stolen. In addition, if you are making a delivery, and the person receiving it does not comply with regulations in some way, refuses it, accepts it, but claims you messed up the delivery after the fact, prepare yourself for legal trouble.

>>949417
>In addition, if you are making a delivery, and the person receiving it does not comply with regulations in some way, refuses it, accepts it, but claims you messed up the delivery after the fact, prepare yourself for legal trouble.

there should be an "or" in between those things. My bad.

Continued.

In addition, although, like has been said, truckers are in demand in many areas, trucking is a low paying profession for the most part. It was suggested you get hazmat certified, which I would recommend as well. Your pay as a trucker depends on what you're hauling, and what company you work for. I understand truckers hauling oil tend to do pretty well. Any certifications you can pick up, do so, you want to appeal to people hauling expensive stuff and need to project professionalism, even in this profession which often prides itself on personal freedom and dressing like whatever you want while you're in a truck.

In addition, you've got to consider that trucking is not exactly fun. Driving a big rig is not the same as driving a car across the country. People will be hostile against you, cops will be hostile, you will be greatly restricted in how you can drive and depending on where you're making deliveries roads might not be accomodating and could put you in awkward situations. If you're making deliveries to major seaports, prepare to find yourself delayed for up to 16 hours per delivery due to docking officials and the backlog of truck deliveries at major ports. I've heard of drivers who quit the industry for this reason specifically.

Also, although you're left alone for the most part, and if you own your rig you can be an independent contractor, you will still have a boss, and they can screw you over on jobs if they're unscrupulous.

>>949431

Continued.

Almost done. Sorry I'm spamming here.

One last thing to consider about the industry is that drivers and their employers are constantly caught in this struggle between regulations and customer demand.

Oftentimes, the only thing a trucker is rewarded for, is faster delivery times. That's what led to the trucker culture of amphetamines, driving through the night, wearing diapers to cut out bathroom breaks, and paying off cops to avoid speeding tickets.

Some truckers loved this part of the lifestyle, but for most people, it's incredibly damaging to their health and personal life. Now there's government regulations mandating scheduled stops and driving times. However, employers still want faster delivery times, so truckers are caught in this push-pull between meeting federal regulations and still managing faster deliveries.

If all of that sounds really stressful, that's because it is. But if it's something you think you can handle, trucking remains one of the best professions without a college degree.

>>949431

Hazmat will make you bank. The driver who supplies our chemical deliveries makes more than I do. However, I think it's a pretty long time to get everything you need but I'm not sure.

>>944898
Aged regulations and unions

>>944898
because 200 lives

>>944892

your post is laughable. there will always be a driver but they will pay him 8 dollars an hour to be what amounts to a security guard

>>949476
Hazmat is literally pay some money, have a background check, and take a written test.

>>949444
I drive for a large comapny (Prime) and life of a company driver is low on stress. They pay for just about everything, run trucks no older than 3 years(DOT inspections are rare). They equip every truck with a xm radio (we have to subscribe ourselves), APU, ezpass, and prepass.
I get paid 50cpm to live in a tiny motel room and hold a steering wheel. They also push only doing 55mph and schedule loads based on 48mph.
Starting next year they will also only order trucks with automatic transmissions.